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November 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 8th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Ha, missed it. My badA little too late for that joke, bruh. I made it first
theprodigy
Member
you guys are all cracking 7-10k jokes, I'm looking at the Wii U jumping from 6% the last two years to 17%
You can't call it a statistical tie without knowing the standard errors -- their sample size is massive.
The more important argument is whether or not the huge sample is representative, IMO, since it involves scanning receipts.
Seems odd that the PS4, priced the same as an objectively inferior console, would sell only 1% more (if this data is AT ALL reliable or even just a minor snapshot)?
Am I completely wrong in this thought process? I had predicted the PS4 being the same price practically would blow it away. I don't think last years BF blowout by the Xbox One is really anything to judge either considering X1 was considerably cheaper, right? Bit different of a situation here.
I guess I'm being ignorant not considering all the added incentives like gift cards too, seeing as they both offered free games.
*shrugs*
Still predict a PS4 win like I have every month for almost a year now.
Am I completely wrong in this thought process? I had predicted the PS4 being the same price practically would blow it away. I don't think last years BF blowout by the Xbox One is really anything to judge either considering X1 was considerably cheaper, right? Bit different of a situation here.
I guess I'm being ignorant not considering all the added incentives like gift cards too, seeing as they both offered free games.
*shrugs*
Still predict a PS4 win like I have every month for almost a year now.
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
O yea i could definitely agree with that. Still the fact its a tie pretty much shows us where November is heading
That's true. Yeah, i have almost no doubt now. Wii U should be easy up YOY.
Primethius
Banned
I suppose it just goes to show the power of a $60 gift card to a price conscious customer.
Hockeymac18
Member
True. But I personally would very rarely put much confidence in a 1% difference, even with large sample sizes. I guess it's hard to argue without those details as you mention - My gut reaction in these situations (without standard error info) is to generally assume little to no statistical significant difference - but of course, you can only know that with the standard error info.
Good question about the scanning receipts question, but I don't see why there would be any discernible difference between people buying either console in their likelihood to scan receipts.
The part that matters for this discussion is that it seems Sony will win the month based on their sales before BF. Even if MS "won" by 1%, Sony would still be the heavy favorite based on other data points. We'd need to see BF 2014 type sales to see a towards MS to probably give them any chance.
small44
Member
For a comparation.
2013
2014
2015
So xbone and ps4 total in 2014 is nearly equal to the total in 2015
At this rate, WiiU will have 45% next year!
Welfare
Member
But it doesn't include the 360 and PS3, so it just ate up their percentages from last year.
Unless that is also a joke.
Don't get me wrong, I totally appreciate the caution and additional attention to things such as standard errors, I just wanted to go one over and add to the discussion
As a percentage of tracked sales. This says nothing about absolute numbers.
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
Star wars low as heck,halo 5 even lower and tomb raider nowhere to be found...wow
theprodigy
Member
Wii U confirmed last gen
Wut?
Hockeymac18
Member
Indeed, hard to know what any of that means without numbers.
It's hard to also interpret Wii U's "rise" in percentage since 360/PS3 are probably down from last year in raw numbers (so make up a smaller percentage...giving WiiU a higher percentage, even if it didn't sell much more than last year).
It is good to see Wii U rise on the percentage side of things, though, even if we don't fully know what that really means in raw numbers.
edit: 360 and PS3 numbers are not included in this chart - so yeah, hard to know what that really means.
Does that include bundles?
The Last One
Member
With so many people getting the Uncharted bundle I'm starting to think that Uncharted 4 is gonna debut higher in it's first month than Halo 5. It's kind difficult actually, but possible.
Cow Goes Moo
Member
is it really that surprising tomb raider wouldn't be on that chart lol
Probably more to do with the fact that they did not include 360 and PS3 this time. Higher percentages all around.
DriftingSpirit
Member
It all comes down to price on Black Friday with the two consoles. Outside of Black Friday, what you are saying will apply.
Anecdotal evidence says that those bundles did even worse than the stand alone games.
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
No clue but i doubt it made a difference
No. This year does not include 360, Wii and PS3 so they arent directly comparable percentage wise.
For a comparation.
2013
2014
2015
Look at that gradual erosion of Xbox marketshare in the US.
Hockeymac18
Member
2013 was really weird because there were hardly any PS4's out there, if I remember correctly because it had just launched? If that were a "normal" year, I think it would have been much closer - PS4 might have even "won" it.
small44
Member
Yes,i was talked about these data not the absolute number
theprodigy
Member
2013 PS4/Xbox One can be ignored due to the launches that month
vpance
Member
Xbox brand name is still worth something in the US.
Now that we have some info on Black Friday I think it's time for some predictions
[PS4] 1258K
[XB1] 917K
[3DS] 432K
[WIU] 295K
I think that the first round of truly massive AAA next gen only titles (Fallout 4, Battlefront and to a smaller degree Black Ops Singleplayer) will be pushing a lot of new next gen console purchases this November. Fallout especially seems like it is a big mover for HW. With indications that Black Friday is very close on sales and with PS4 releasing two highly discounted and highly anticipated (going from preorder figures we have seen) bundles earlier in the month I think PS4 will win by a significant margin. I do think XB1 will be down from last year but by a relatively small margin (~20%) given the crazy discounts and bundles that were offered last year especially when the two lowest priced SKUs for both platforms were the same price ($299).
[PS4] 1258K
[XB1] 917K
[3DS] 432K
[WIU] 295K
I think that the first round of truly massive AAA next gen only titles (Fallout 4, Battlefront and to a smaller degree Black Ops Singleplayer) will be pushing a lot of new next gen console purchases this November. Fallout especially seems like it is a big mover for HW. With indications that Black Friday is very close on sales and with PS4 releasing two highly discounted and highly anticipated (going from preorder figures we have seen) bundles earlier in the month I think PS4 will win by a significant margin. I do think XB1 will be down from last year but by a relatively small margin (~20%) given the crazy discounts and bundles that were offered last year especially when the two lowest priced SKUs for both platforms were the same price ($299).
So for Infoscout (which btw isn't 100% accurate even if the sample is ample enough to be considered reliable) they basically tied with PS4 winning overall by a nose.
Xbox had really strong sales at Walmart and Target, PS4 elsewhere:
It's not a surprising result, looking at online charts and the anecdotal reports thread it was clear since saturday, even Greenberg hinted at such outcome.
Now clearly PS4 has won November NPD. Question is how much? I think 1.2m (max 1.3m) PS4s and 1m XB1.
Let's wait for official PRs though, probably tomorrow?
Xbox had really strong sales at Walmart and Target, PS4 elsewhere:
It's not a surprising result, looking at online charts and the anecdotal reports thread it was clear since saturday, even Greenberg hinted at such outcome.
Now clearly PS4 has won November NPD. Question is how much? I think 1.2m (max 1.3m) PS4s and 1m XB1.
Let's wait for official PRs though, probably tomorrow?
Hockeymac18
Member
Have always been interested in participating in a prediction here, so I'll give it a go this month:
[PS4] 1450K
[XB1] 1220K
[3DS] 465K
[WIU] 430K
[PS4] 1450K
[XB1] 1220K
[3DS] 465K
[WIU] 430K
sjagolinzer
Member
[PS4] 1350K
[XB1] 999K
[3DS] 555K
[WIU] 325K
[XB1] 999K
[3DS] 555K
[WIU] 325K
The general public doesn't care about power. Both consoles $299 with nice selection of AAA games beside them. Xbox also had a good deal with Target.
Still not going to use this info to predict. To me it's still just a snapshot. By their tracking PS4 comes out the victor but out of 250k and only 48% of those being console bundles...It's hard to gauge anything out of that imo.
Crimson_Gold
Member
You're a medieval pirate? One of these days I'll figure out your true identity.
Strong numbers from both. Not surprising. The price was too good.
Too good.jpeg