Best Sony November is PS2 1,318,000.
Yeah, looks like PS4 has a good chance for beat this, even if i don't think so.
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November 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 8th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Best Sony November is PS2 1,318,000.
Yeah, looks like PS4 has a good chance for beat this, even if i don't think so.
KillerMan91
Member
[3DS] 460k
[PS4] 1250k
[WIU] 360k
[XB1] 1100k
[PS4] 1250k
[WIU] 360k
[XB1] 1100k
Yep, November 2002.
Tivor Tontomo
Member
You're using a flawed comparison. What you are talking about makes sense then because the difference in totals combine were not far apart and were very close.
Now, that doesn't make sense. Especially for NPD, which your last gen comparisons were long after the 360 was established the big king so it would be no surprise the PS3 would have below 1 mill novembers.
It may go back tot hat way after this year, but for this year it doesn't add up imo.
Look like mostly is Sony console selling at b the b lower end. Just like Sony console is b the one getting least boast during year end in Japan and Nintendo consoles getting most gains in December in Japan.
I wander if I should revise down my PlayStation 4 prediction.
Tivor Tontomo
Member
BTW Xbox One has a walmart exclusive white Gears of war bundle online and in-store.
EventHorizon
Member
That's what I love about this discussion. Unlike most others on the internet, this is grounded in reality. It will have a definite and soon end.
Primethius
Banned
It does feel like most people are basing predictions around October being an anomaly and moving sales they expected in that month over into November, which goes contrary to your numbers.
I'm still split on what impact October will have on November but I'm otherwise inclined to agree on the numbers you provided.
Dash_Riprock
Member
Man I HOPE October was only terrible cause people were waiting for BF deals.
serversurfer
Member
Maybe. A 20% bump over last year seems like a lot though. That'd be a lot of pent up demand for a $300 PS4.
Let's start out with the assumption that PS4 will be stealing sales from the Bone. Last year they were like 850k and 1210k, so maybe this year that shifts to 1150k and 910k? The Bone's a little cheaper than it was, so maybe it does 950k with increased demand at the lower price point?
But that only gets us to 2.1M. So to get to 2.5M, you'd be looking for around 1550k from PS4. That seems like a lot to me. That, or you'd be expecting the Bone to hold up surprisingly well in the face of price parity from the PS4.
NDP_Mulcair
Banned
I'm comparing the general size of the hardcore console Black Friday / November market.
I understand that Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 have very different histories. But I'm not talking about them separately. With that historical list I'm only comparing the general sentiment of the broader market.
The "not a shock for sub-1 million" comment I made only references historical precedent. It would indeed be disappointing if one or more of the current-gen consoles sold below 1 million given their current situation. This time around I am definitely erring on the side of pessimism and the converse is equally valid.
But one cannot act as if a sub-1 million result is this incredible, never-before-seen phenomenon that heralds the demise of the console industry. In the grander scheme of things it is normal. That's all I'm saying.
CosmicQueso
Member
I wish more people would do Top 10 Software predictions.
Primethius
Banned
Tomb Raider.
Not in the top 10.
Now that I got the tough one outta the way, I'm sure more people can jump in with the easy stuff.
Locks
1. COD - 3+M
2. FO4 - 2.75M
3. SWBF - 2.25M
Guaranteed to be there
4. NBA2K16 - 1M
5. Madden16 - 900K
6. FIFA16 - 850K
Crapshoot
Minecraft - 830K
Disney Infinity/Lego Dimensions - 825K
GTA V/ACS - 700k
Halo 5/Super Mario Maker - 650K
Not in the TOP10 - ROTR - 350K
Guys, stop annoying Ethomaz and George, this is a prediction thread.
1.3 million for PS4 and 1.1 million for XB1 is my guess.
I just think the PS4 increase will be way bigger than the XB1 drop. So, overall, PS4+XB1 sales should be easy up YOY imo.
1.3 million for PS4 and 1.1 million for XB1 is my guess.
I just think the PS4 increase will be way bigger than the XB1 drop. So, overall, PS4+XB1 sales should be easy up YOY imo.
1.COD
2.Fallout 4
3.Battlefront
4.Nba2k
5.Madden
6.Halo
7.Fifa
8.Gta
9.Disney infinity
10.Minecraft
Mario maker
Need for speed
Tomb raider
Assassins creed
NDP_Mulcair
Banned
Here are my 'Top 10' NPD PR predictions:
1) Call of Duty Black Ops 3 from Activision Blizzard
2) Fallout 4 from Bethesda Softworks
3) Star Wars Battlefront from Electronic Arts
4) Madden NFL 16 from Electronic Arts
5) FIFA 16 from Electronic Arts
6) NBA 2K16 from Take-Two Interactive
7) Halo 5 from Microsoft Corp
8) Disney Infinity 3.0 from Disney Interactive
9) Minecraft from Microsoft Corp
10) Assassin's Creed: Syndicate by Ubisoft Corp
Like last month I expect Uncharted: The Nathan Drake Collection to be present on the list if hardware bundle units were included in The NPD Group's "Top 10" PR.
I also expect Gears of War: Ultimate Edition and Rise of the Tomb Raider to similarly be on the Top 10 list if that were the case.
CosmicQueso
Member
Man TTL games are such a crapshoot for the top 10 this year. I could see 0 making it, I can see 2 making it.
Such a hard category to get a read on right now. So much heavy discounting on Starters but just not hearing a lot about how they're selling.
Such a hard category to get a read on right now. So much heavy discounting on Starters but just not hearing a lot about how they're selling.
Cow Goes Moo
Member
1.Call of Duty: Black OPS III (XB1, PS4, 360, PS3, PC)
2.Fallout 4 (PS4, XB1, PC)
3. Star Wars: Battlefront (PS4, XB1, PC)
4. Madden 16 (XB1, PS4, 360, PS3)
5.NBA 2K (PS4, XB1, 360, PS3)
6. FIFA 16 (360, XB1, PS4, PS3)
7. Disney Infinity 3.0 (360, XB1, Wii, PS3, Wii U, PS4, 3DS)
8. Ass Creed Syndicate (PS4, XB1, PC)
9. Grand Theft Auto V (PS4, XB1, PC)
10. Minecraft (XB1, 360, PS4, PS3)
maybe Halo in place of asscreed
Tomb Raider <300k
Yokai Watch 40k-80k
Pokemon Super Mystery Dungeon <100k
Splatoon <200k
2.Fallout 4 (PS4, XB1, PC)
3. Star Wars: Battlefront (PS4, XB1, PC)
4. Madden 16 (XB1, PS4, 360, PS3)
5.NBA 2K (PS4, XB1, 360, PS3)
6. FIFA 16 (360, XB1, PS4, PS3)
7. Disney Infinity 3.0 (360, XB1, Wii, PS3, Wii U, PS4, 3DS)
8. Ass Creed Syndicate (PS4, XB1, PC)
9. Grand Theft Auto V (PS4, XB1, PC)
10. Minecraft (XB1, 360, PS4, PS3)
maybe Halo in place of asscreed
Tomb Raider <300k
Yokai Watch 40k-80k
Pokemon Super Mystery Dungeon <100k
Splatoon <200k
You really see AC making it into the top 10 this month. i know it was on sale during black friday but that would mean ot would be up from last months abysmal showing( assuming #10 is more than 390k)
serversurfer
Member
Fair enough. Like I said, y'all do this a lot more than me. Your PS4 prediction strikes me as fairly reasonable, but I wouldn't expect the Bone to hold up quite so well in the face of a significantly more competitive primary competitor.
Obliterator
Member
All everyone is talking about is price, price, price, price.
And yet no one talks software software software software.
FO4, BO3, and Battlefront had to have combined for a huge amount of hardware in the front half of the month.
And yet no one talks software software software software.
FO4, BO3, and Battlefront had to have combined for a huge amount of hardware in the front half of the month.
NDP_Mulcair
Banned
I've adapted my list to cater to the limitations of the Top 10 Software Chart simply because it does not include bundles.
If the list did include bundles I would expect other titles such as "Rise of the Tomb Raider," "Uncharted: The Nathan Drake Collection," and "Gears of War: Ultimate Edition" to easily knock it out of the Top 10 list because I believe all three of those SKUs will have a significant amount of their sales represented through Bundle sales and as such will not show up on the NPD PR list.
CosmicQueso
Member
I totally forgot Minecraft in my SW predictions. Doh!
From what Abdiel said, I'm not sure about the Tomb Raider bundle. He indicated it wasn't a big seller.
NDP_Mulcair
Banned
I should have been more granular in my description.
Including hardware bundles I predict that Tomb Raider would just barely knock Assassin's Creed Syndicate (which doesn't have a hardware bundle SKU) off of the #10 position.
Uncharted: The Nathan Drake Collection and Gears of War: Ultimate Edition would knock Assassin's Creed: Syndicate off by more than 100K.
EventHorizon
Member
Stupid question but it's driving me crazy. What is a TTL game? The closest I could come up with is that it had something to do with Legos.
Toys To Life: Skylanders, Disney Infinity, Lego Dimensions.
NDP_Mulcair
Banned
Toys-to-life. Amiibo, Disney Infinity 3.0, Skylanders Superchargers, and LEGO Dimensions.
I believe it will be Disney Infinity 3.0, then Skylanders Superchargers, and then LEGO Dimensions this month in terms of rankings.
In my opinion, Disney Infinity 3.0 will lead over LEGO Dimensions by a wide margin.
I don't expect a massive drop from XB1 because it has still some good thing this year.
The $299 this Black Friday for example was a really good deal.
And the big 3 Black Ops + Fallout + Battlefront are gonna be massive for both system.
Fixed, now seem reasonable.
3rdamention
Member
[3DS] 415k
[PS4] 1215k
[WIU] 317k
[XB1] 1085k
I am thinking PS4 by just under 200k, even though my prediction doesn't exactly reflect that.
[PS4] 1215k
[WIU] 317k
[XB1] 1085k
I am thinking PS4 by just under 200k, even though my prediction doesn't exactly reflect that.
serversurfer
Member
I agree, but is it significantly more appealing than the $329 price point last year? Also, last year the $329 Bone was being compared to a $399 PS4. This year a $299 Bone will be compared to a $299 PS4. Therefore, I think the Bone's relative appeal will be significantly lower than last year. It's only slightly more appealing in absolute terms, but considerably less appealing when compared to the competition. So in short, I think last year's Bone's sales were elevated by the comparatively poor value offered by the PS4, but this year the Bone will see no such boost to its appeal.
[3DS] 375k
[PS4] 1200k
[WIU] 430k
[XB1] 1125k
3DS software weak this year so low hardware to match. On the flipside the wii u bundle was incredibly strong and anecdotally had a really good sell-through, and XCX is getting very strong reception in a genre that is completely absent on the platform, so I expect anticipation of that to have a minimal sales bump.
I'm honestly guessing on the PS4 and XB1 numbers by looking at everyone else's.
[PS4] 1200k
[WIU] 430k
[XB1] 1125k
3DS software weak this year so low hardware to match. On the flipside the wii u bundle was incredibly strong and anecdotally had a really good sell-through, and XCX is getting very strong reception in a genre that is completely absent on the platform, so I expect anticipation of that to have a minimal sales bump.
I'm honestly guessing on the PS4 and XB1 numbers by looking at everyone else's.
Tivor Tontomo
Member
Oh no im not saying that they would all be doomed, just that it would be very odd given their current situation. I mean your numbers would be the minimum I would agree with BEFORE they cross the line that would cause actual panic. If both were under 850k I think guys on here would pass out etc.
Tivor Tontomo
Member
BTW, I hear a rumor of another Portal Toy series coming out but that aside.
Anybody else thinks these interactive toy games and figures market is going to implode? I think it seems inevitable at this point. Nobody seems to be able to get a solid sales and/or revenue stream for these things. For where they are at it's pretty good, but you have to think of all the things included in that, which toys sell more or flop, how much people buy the actual games etc.
I mean it took Disney quite some time to really get to where what would be "decent" for Skylanders during its original run and it's still not quite there, in the meantime, you have Amiibo, which while working slightly differently is still a factor, and then recently we added Lego to this group. I honestly think there are too many players in this space to be sustainable. IMO.
Anybody else thinks these interactive toy games and figures market is going to implode? I think it seems inevitable at this point. Nobody seems to be able to get a solid sales and/or revenue stream for these things. For where they are at it's pretty good, but you have to think of all the things included in that, which toys sell more or flop, how much people buy the actual games etc.
I mean it took Disney quite some time to really get to where what would be "decent" for Skylanders during its original run and it's still not quite there, in the meantime, you have Amiibo, which while working slightly differently is still a factor, and then recently we added Lego to this group. I honestly think there are too many players in this space to be sustainable. IMO.
NDP_Mulcair
Banned
I think we can best see this represented with the newcomer LEGO Dimensions, which has suffered from lukewarm-at-best sales reception ever since its release in late September according to data from The NPD Group.
That's why I think that, in the same vein as September where Disney Infinity 3.0 sold a good deal more than LEGO Dimensions despite LEGO Dimensions being a brand new title, we will see it happen yet again in November.
As the Disney Infinity and Skylanders IPs slowly fade from relevance, I see the toys-to-life market shrinking instead of continuing to be replenished by new ideas. It definitely does feel more of a fad like the plastic instrument music genre instead of a perennial genre.
Nintendo's amiibo seems like a promising idea and has enjoyed sales success thus far, but that too may very well run out of steam going into the next gen with Nintendo NX as Nintendo Co., Ltd. recently admitted that its main appeal by a large margin was collecting for hardcore Nintendo fans and not it's toys-to-life purpose. Collecting may only last so long until it becomes too oversaturated.
There is also growing resentment against Nintendo for locking video game content behind amiibo paywalls as well as introducing unnecessary, gimmicky features into games because of it which may have consequences down the line.
Darth Smurf X
Member
1. Call of Duty: Black OPS III (PS4, XB1, 360, PS3, PC)
2. Fallout 4 (PS4, XB1, PC)
3. Star Wars: Battlefront (PS4, XB1, PC)
Those are guaranteed. Console order is subject to be wrong though.
4. Madden 16 (PS4, XB1, 360, PS3)
5. NBA 2K (PS4, XB1, 360, PS3)
6. FIFA 16 (PS4, XB1, 360, PS3)
7. Disney Infinity 3.0 (360, XB1, Wii, PS4, PS3, Wii U, 3DS)
8. Assassin's Creed: Syndicate (PS4, XB1, PC)
9. Halo 5 (XB1)
10. Minecraft (XB1, 360, PS4, PS3)
2. Fallout 4 (PS4, XB1, PC)
3. Star Wars: Battlefront (PS4, XB1, PC)
Those are guaranteed. Console order is subject to be wrong though.
4. Madden 16 (PS4, XB1, 360, PS3)
5. NBA 2K (PS4, XB1, 360, PS3)
6. FIFA 16 (PS4, XB1, 360, PS3)
7. Disney Infinity 3.0 (360, XB1, Wii, PS4, PS3, Wii U, 3DS)
8. Assassin's Creed: Syndicate (PS4, XB1, PC)
9. Halo 5 (XB1)
10. Minecraft (XB1, 360, PS4, PS3)
1.Call of Duty: Black OPS III (PS4, XB1, 360, PS3, PC)
2.Fallout 4 (PS4, XB1, PC)
3. Star Wars: Battlefront (PS4, XB1, PC)
4. Madden 16 (PS4, XB1, 360, PS3)
5.NBA 2K (PS4, XB1, 360, PS3)
6. FIFA 16 (360,PS4, XB1, PS3)
7. Disney Infinity 3.0 (360, XB1, PS3, Wii, PS4, Wii U, 3DS)
8. Ass Creed Syndicate (PS4, XB1, PC
9. Minecraft (XB1, 360, PS4, PS3)
10. Halo 5 (XB1)
2.Fallout 4 (PS4, XB1, PC)
3. Star Wars: Battlefront (PS4, XB1, PC)
4. Madden 16 (PS4, XB1, 360, PS3)
5.NBA 2K (PS4, XB1, 360, PS3)
6. FIFA 16 (360,PS4, XB1, PS3)
7. Disney Infinity 3.0 (360, XB1, PS3, Wii, PS4, Wii U, 3DS)
8. Ass Creed Syndicate (PS4, XB1, PC
9. Minecraft (XB1, 360, PS4, PS3)
10. Halo 5 (XB1)
Tivor Tontomo
Member
Originally I thought the Rockband and Guitar Hero break would give them a big boost, but then when I ntoiced the lack of real drive, I changed to think maybe both would probably just take a small share of the other "toys" in the gaming market, and it seems I was correct. Solidifying my belief that the "toys" gaming marketshare will crash.
I think Skylanders, if they throw in some kind of reboot to the system, may be around for a bit longer, but outside that, Disney has already tried everything that involved large ips in its infinity line-up that is worth anything so they may as well either give up, or take what they have and ride it.
Im not sure who in the business department though the market had room for lego that always baffled me.
CosmicQueso
Member
Well, to be fair, a product like that starts early stages of development somewhere in 2012. It's not like someone thought in April, "hey let's make a Toys to Life game and launch it this September!" Planning was likely being done before Amiibo and before the saturation of the other products.
Or they could just be idiots. Either way.
With the price disparity between them might this be one of those cases where looking at total consumer spend might be a better gauge to evaluate than units?
Tivor Tontomo
Member
I notice some throwing Halo 5 in the top 10.
With GTAV, COD, Fallout 4, NBA, NFL, and Fifa likely on immediate lock. I find that very hard to believe. In fact, i doubt any exclusive for anything will be in the top 10.
Likely Battlefront will be there, so that would take the place of Madden if it doesn't make it with it's price drop.
Star Wars hype may have a likely charting effect on DIsney Infinity.
That leaves 2-3 spaces.
I suppose it could maybe chart 9 or 10. But given the last couple Halos only really charted the month they came out, and Halo 5 seems to not be emptying out (at least from what I see) compared to Halo 4, I find it possible Halo 5 MAY not chart at all.
With GTAV, COD, Fallout 4, NBA, NFL, and Fifa likely on immediate lock. I find that very hard to believe. In fact, i doubt any exclusive for anything will be in the top 10.
Likely Battlefront will be there, so that would take the place of Madden if it doesn't make it with it's price drop.
Star Wars hype may have a likely charting effect on DIsney Infinity.
That leaves 2-3 spaces.
I suppose it could maybe chart 9 or 10. But given the last couple Halos only really charted the month they came out, and Halo 5 seems to not be emptying out (at least from what I see) compared to Halo 4, I find it possible Halo 5 MAY not chart at all.
Tivor Tontomo
Member
I would assume based on Skylanders and Disneys relatively quick response, that both of those were likely already out at the least before Lego
Based on that I would go with them being fools, because Disney already had to fight uphill and still is not quite there despite them having used the biggest IPS in entertainment, vs. You know, something with the name Spyro but without a real "spyro" and then dropping that name (not the character) from the titles of the sequels.
Lego couldn't really have thought that they could go against the established original from the COD maker, and some of the biggest IPS in media history. Or at least I say this in my head when I see tons of their stuff not selling in stores.
CosmicQueso
Member
Well obviously you are wrong on that one.
slavesnyder
Member
No idea, but that has never been an excuse to stay silent.
1.Call of Duty: Black OPS III (XB1, PS4, 360, PC, PS3)
2. Fallout 4 (PS4, XB1, PC)
3. Star Wars: Battlefront (XB1, PS4, PC)
4. Madden 16 (PS4, XB1, 360, PS3)
5.NBA 2K (PS4, XB1, 360, PS3)
6. Disney Infinity 3.0 (360, XB1, PS3, PS4, Wii, Wii U, 3DS)
7. FIFA 16 (PS4, XB1, 360, PS3)
8. Halo 5 (XB1)
9. Splatoon (WiiU)
10. GTA 5 (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3)
Realised AssCreed was released in October already. So out of the list.
1.Call of Duty: Black OPS III (XB1, PS4, 360, PC, PS3)
2. Fallout 4 (PS4, XB1, PC)
3. Star Wars: Battlefront (XB1, PS4, PC)
4. Madden 16 (PS4, XB1, 360, PS3)
5.NBA 2K (PS4, XB1, 360, PS3)
6. Disney Infinity 3.0 (360, XB1, PS3, PS4, Wii, Wii U, 3DS)
7. FIFA 16 (PS4, XB1, 360, PS3)
8. Halo 5 (XB1)
9. Splatoon (WiiU)
10. GTA 5 (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3)
Realised AssCreed was released in October already. So out of the list.
Welfare
Member
That was a very good discussion going on last page, but I guess consoles are dad as we are now doing software.
1. Call Of Duty: Black Ops 3 (XBO, PS4, 360, PS3, PC)
2. Fallout 4 (PS4, XBO, PC)
3. Star Wars Battlefront (XBO, PS4, PC)
4. Madden 16 (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3)
5. NBA 2K16 (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3)
6. Disney Infinity 3.0 (360, XB1, Wii, PS4, Wii U, PS3, 3DS)
7. FIFA 16 (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3)
8. Minecraft (360, XBO, PS4, PS3)
9. Grand Theft Auto V (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3)
10. Halo 5 (XBO)
Bundles are the main reason for why I think the Xbox One will be ahead on CoD and Star Wars.
1. Call Of Duty: Black Ops 3 (XBO, PS4, 360, PS3, PC)
2. Fallout 4 (PS4, XBO, PC)
3. Star Wars Battlefront (XBO, PS4, PC)
4. Madden 16 (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3)
5. NBA 2K16 (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3)
6. Disney Infinity 3.0 (360, XB1, Wii, PS4, Wii U, PS3, 3DS)
7. FIFA 16 (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3)
8. Minecraft (360, XBO, PS4, PS3)
9. Grand Theft Auto V (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3)
10. Halo 5 (XBO)
Bundles are the main reason for why I think the Xbox One will be ahead on CoD and Star Wars.
What?
Halo 4 charted for 3 months consecutive.
Halo 3 charted for 4 months consecutive.