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November 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 8th

noshten

Member
1. Call of Duty: Black OPS III (
2. Fallout 4
3. Star Wars: Battlefront
4. Madden 16
5. NBA 2K
6. FIFA 16
7. Halo 5
8. GTA V
9. Disney Infinity 3.0
10. Minecraft
 
That was a very good discussion going on last page, but I guess consoles are dad as we are now doing software.

1. Call Of Duty: Black Ops 3 (XBO, PS4, 360, PS3, PC)
2. Fallout 4 (PS4, XBO, PC)
3. Star Wars Battlefront (XBO, PS4, PC)
4. Madden 16 (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3)
5. NBA 2K16 (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3)
6. Disney Infinity 3.0 (360, XB1, Wii, PS4, Wii U, PS3, 3DS)
7. FIFA 16 (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3)
8. Minecraft (360, XBO, PS4, PS3)
9. Grand Theft Auto V (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3)
10. Halo 5 (XBO)

Bundles are the main reason for why I think the Xbox One will be ahead on CoD and Star Wars.

Personally, I think CoD will be ahead on XB1 even including bundles. Though I agree with you on Battlefront.

I just don't see the base switching enough to give the PS4 the edge.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Withouth bundle, XBO version of COD should beat the PS4 version.
Including bundle, PS4 version will win by a small margin.

With Battlefront, PS4 will easy win even withouth bundle.
 
[3DS] 375k
[PS4] 1200k
[WIU] 430k
[XB1] 1125k

3DS software weak this year so low hardware to match. On the flipside the wii u bundle was incredibly strong and anecdotally had a really good sell-through, and XCX is getting very strong reception in a genre that is completely absent on the platform, so I expect anticipation of that to have a minimal sales bump.

I'm honestly guessing on the PS4 and XB1 numbers by looking at everyone else's.

what? if Xenoblade Chronicles X were to provide a small boost (doubtful, but I think it actually could provide a tiny one) it would be next month
 
Personally, I think CoD will be ahead on XB1 even including bundles. Though I agree with you on Battlefront.

I just don't see the base switching enough to give the PS4 the edge.

Pachter says: COD has the new maps first on PS4. And this is a very important fact for the crowd.
I think he's right.
Nevertheless, we probably won't find out because of bundles.
 

Hedon

Banned
Pachter says: COD has the new maps first on PS4. And this is a very important fact for the crowd.
I think he's right.
Nevertheless, we probably won't find out because of bundles.

DLC first won't have an impact. People are not buying consoles for the DLC. From what we have been seeing though, it does look like BLOPS 3 is doing better on the Xbox One. I see Rainbow Six Siege is as well.
 

allan-bh

Member
Personally, I think CoD will be ahead on XB1 even including bundles. Though I agree with you on Battlefront.

I just don't see the base switching enough to give the PS4 the edge.

Yeah, I'm suspecting that CoD sold more on Xbox One too. If PS4 bundle was $349 could sell more units, but at $429 sold only for people that really wanted the game.
 
What?

Halo 4 charted for 3 months consecutive.
Halo 3 charted for 4 months consecutive.

I am talking about Halo MCC and the mobile games console versions. Although mostly Halo MCC since this is npd.

Granted I did forget Halo 4 charted more than one month. Still, going by the trends since Halo 4 and the games that are very highly likely to chart it may not be a November.
 

blakep267

Member
Pachter says: COD has the new maps first on PS4. And this is a very important fact for the crowd.
I think he's right.
Nevertheless, we probably won't find out because of bundles.
Eh I don't think that's that important to tell the truth. Stuff like available deals, friends, your preferred platform would sway a new buyer way more than waiting a month to play maps. Like you could get a gears bundle, COD and another controller or game at some places for $350 when COD launched
 
Eh I don't think that's that important to tell the truth. Stuff like available deals, friends, your preferred platform would sway a new buyer way more than waiting a month to play maps. Like you could get a gears bundle, COD and another controller or game at some places for $350 when COD launched
Okay. Thanks for the info.

I will remember this.
 
Pachter says: COD has the new maps first on PS4. And this is a very important fact for the crowd.
I think he's right.
Nevertheless, we probably won't find out because of bundles.

Well remember when the pre-orders for COD III came out the Xbox one pre-orders were off the chart, i think hat only a marginal effect will come from the deal, if Sony still has it next year, then i would say that such things will cause a bigger concern.
 

gtj1092

Member
Well remember when the pre-orders for COD III came out the Xbox one pre-orders were off the chart, i think hat only a marginal effect will come from the deal, if Sony still has it next year, then i would say that such things will cause a bigger concern.

When did we get preorder numbers for Black Ops? And for what chain?
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Update 2:

#4 / WIU: Mario Kart 8 (↓3)
#14 / PS4: Star Wars Battlefront (—)
#22 / XB1: Gears of War Ultimate edition (↑1)
#26 / PS4: Uncharted the Nathan Drake collection (↓5)
#49 / XB1: Holidays bundle (↓3)
#87 / 3DS XL (—)

Update 3:

#9 / WIU: Mario Kart 8 (↓5)
#14 / PS4: Star Wars Battlefront (—)
#24 / XB1: Gears of War Ultimate edition (↓2)
#30 / PS4: Uncharted the Nathan Drake collection (↓4)
#53 / XB1: Holidays bundle (↓4)
#86 / 3DS XL (↑1)
#99 / XB360 Peggle (NEW)

A bit consideration:
how is possible that the Uncharted bundle is always in TOP 10, most time in TOP 3 in the hourly, but in the monthly it continue to drop and drop? Now at #30...
 

Blanquito

Member
Ok, I dont know if this has been shared yet, but looks like we know the Microsoft "hard counter" to the PS4 price of $299. I see that the Best Buy ad for 12/13 through 12/19 has leaked on CAG, and the Xbox One is $50 off.



So it appears, Microsoft is going to match the PS4 price of $299 next week.



Oh yeah, there is also $30 off an Xbox One controller with the purchase of a console.

Also looks like a Samsung 58" 1080p TV + PS4 NDC or Battlefront bundle for $799.

[edit] and save $20 on a DS4 (no purchase of PS4 necessary)
 

hawk2025

Member
Update 3:

#9 / WIU: Mario Kart 8 (↓5)
#14 / PS4: Star Wars Battlefront (—)
#24 / XB1: Gears of War Ultimate edition (↓2)
#30 / PS4: Uncharted the Nathan Drake collection (↓4)
#53 / XB1: Holidays bundle (↓4)
#86 / 3DS XL (↑1)
#99 / XB360 Peggle (NEW)

A bit consideration:
how is possible that the Uncharted bundle is always in TOP 10, most time in TOP 3 in the hourly, but in the monthly it continue to drop and drop? Now at #30...

Because the hourly is likely to be a moving average with strong time-dependence. This means that the incredibly high Black Friday sales still haven't phased out of the hourly charts completely, even if actual "per hour" sales have changed completely.
 
Also looks like a Samsung 58" 1080p TV + PS4 NDC or Battlefront bundle for $799.

[edit] and save $20 on a DS4 (no purchase of PS4 necessary)

Yeah, that $20 off a Dual Shock 4 is decent, especially since the ad shows 4 different colors. Black Friday DS4 deals seemed to be limited to Black. And, you dont have to buy a console to save on the controller.
 
Update 3:

#9 / WIU: Mario Kart 8 (↓5)
#14 / PS4: Star Wars Battlefront (—)
#24 / XB1: Gears of War Ultimate edition (↓2)
#30 / PS4: Uncharted the Nathan Drake collection (↓4)
#53 / XB1: Holidays bundle (↓4)
#86 / 3DS XL (↑1)
#99 / XB360 Peggle (NEW)

A bit consideration:
how is possible that the Uncharted bundle is always in TOP 10, most time in TOP 3 in the hourly, but in the monthly it continue to drop and drop? Now at #30...
To me, it sounds like $299 is the magic price point, and once you hit it, the SW bundle has far more appeal than the NDC bundle. When NDC is your only $299 option, you may as well take those three games for free, and spend the $50 you saved on a copy of SW, or CoD, or whatever else you're interested in.

If NDC is still available for $299 after the current promo ends, I expect it'd quickly catch back up to the SW bundle.
 
So it appears, Microsoft is going to match the PS4 price of $299 next week.
Then we really have black friday through december. Matching 299 might not bring a lead for Xbox, but it will soften the spanking.

Funny some people believed that MS would not match and sticked to the "we are not interested in sales but go for profitability" spencerism.
 

Chobel

Member
1. Call Of Duty: Black Ops 3 (XBO, PS4, 360, PS3, PC)
2. Fallout 4 (PS4, XBO, PC)
3. Star Wars Battlefront (PS4, XBO, PC)
4. Madden 16 (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3)
5. NBA 2K16 (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3)
6. FIFA 16 (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3)
7. Disney Infinity 3.0 (360, Wii, Wii U, XB1, PS3, PS4, 3DS)
8. Halo 5 (XBO)
9. Grand Theft Auto V (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3)
10. Minecraft (360, XBO, PS4, PS3)

3. Star Wars Battlefront (XBO, PS4, PC)

XBO > PS4? No freaking way.

----------------------

EDIT: It's only price matching? Personally I wouldn't have called that "hard".
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
The question to me is what the end date is. Are they going until 12/23 or not. Will they get any time alone at that price during that crucial time period or is it just to overlap.
 
The question to me is what the end date is. Are they going until 12/23 or not. Will they get any time alone at that price during that crucial time period or is it just to overlap.
Déjà vu.
Last year they lowered the price and failed to get it up again afterwards.
Same might happen here.
Price back up after christmas, horrible decline insales, permanent pricedrop.
Might also be true for PS4.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I would think going till the 23rd could be a nice advantage. Don't know if ms wants to take the bleeding there.
 

Elandyll

Banned
It ain't just Best Buy

Channel wide. Now that the cats out the bag there you go. Price matched
That's it? And if they end on the same day, 1 less week? I honestly don't see it achieving much tbh (although I guess that's something they have to do).
Now if it's $299 and a choice of 1 game between BF, Madden, TR, FO4 or H5, and a year of Gold on top (or $30GC) it might provide some sort of parity for the sale period.
Unless you mean $299 on the $399 bundles like TR which would be a great deal.

Funny thing is I fully expect Sony to say something like "due to overwhelming demand, we are extending the promotion to Dec 31st" (or at least the 26th), if only to take advantage of the gift card purchases.
 
So, can we get a summary of what has been learned today?

LEGO was stupid for entering TTL, bunch of dummies.
Things are getting price drops.
Black Friday is Forever.
2 million combined is a lot of PS4 and Xbox Ones to sell in November.
2 million combined sales of PS4 and Xbox One would also be dogshit.
People predicted software. Not everyone was a fan of this exercise.
 

twinturbo2

butthurt Heat fan
[3DS] 300K
[PS4] 1200K
[WIU] 600K
[XB1] 1150K

Battlefront, Black Ops 3 and Fallout 4 are the locks for top three in software, it's just which order they'll come in.

And I have this feeling that Rise of the Tomb Raider may squeak into the top ten somewhere, just a hunch.
 
To me, it sounds like $299 is the magic price point, and once you hit it, the SW bundle has far more appeal than the NDC bundle. When NDC is your only $299 option, you may as well take those three games for free, and spend the $50 you saved on a copy of SW, or CoD, or whatever else you're interested in.

If NDC is still available for $299 after the current promo ends, I expect it'd quickly catch back up to the SW bundle.

Because the hourly is likely to be a moving average with strong time-dependence. This means that the incredibly high Black Friday sales still haven't phased out of the hourly charts completely, even if actual "per hour" sales have changed completely.

Update 3:

#9 / WIU: Mario Kart 8 (↓5)
#14 / PS4: Star Wars Battlefront (—)
#24 / XB1: Gears of War Ultimate edition (↓2)
#30 / PS4: Uncharted the Nathan Drake collection (↓4)
#53 / XB1: Holidays bundle (↓4)
#86 / 3DS XL (↑1)
#99 / XB360 Peggle (NEW)

A bit consideration:
how is possible that the Uncharted bundle is always in TOP 10, most time in TOP 3 in the hourly, but in the monthly it continue to drop and drop? Now at #30...

The SKU that keeps topping the Charts is the Disc one, not the download version. Maybe the Monthly is just showing the DL version and not the more popular (and cheaper) disc based one? Would explain the discrepancy.
 

BokehKing

Banned
Eh I don't think that's that important to tell the truth. Stuff like available deals, friends, your preferred platform would sway a new buyer way more than waiting a month to play maps. Like you could get a gears bundle, COD and another controller or game at some places for $350 when COD launched
Idk, I switched over to 360 back then because they got the maps a month early.

A lot of people did, but I don't want to sound like Leeh with a "me and my friends" statement
 

Welfare

Member
The SKU that keeps topping the Charts is the Disc one, not the download version. Maybe the Monthly is just showing the DL version and not the more popular (and cheaper) disc based one? Would explain the discrepancy.

Both are showing the physical disc version.
 

Elandyll

Banned
Update 3:

#9 / WIU: Mario Kart 8 (↓5)
#14 / PS4: Star Wars Battlefront (—)
#24 / XB1: Gears of War Ultimate edition (↓2)
#30 / PS4: Uncharted the Nathan Drake collection (↓4)
#53 / XB1: Holidays bundle (↓4)
#86 / 3DS XL (↑1)
#99 / XB360 Peggle (NEW)

A bit consideration:
how is possible that the Uncharted bundle is always in TOP 10, most time in TOP 3 in the hourly, but in the monthly it continue to drop and drop? Now at #30...
Something is borked somewhere in their system for the December monthly imo.
The hourly never showed the UC bundle under 5, and the weekly from 11/30 to 12/06 shows something much closer to the hourly...
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015-11-30/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar
 
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