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[Aostia]

Not wrong but...


I won't exclude new Wii U retail releases announcements and/or price drop. And we also don't really know what's the nx schedule release is. February, after the next corporate meeting, could give us a better picture. Maybe.

Well of course I am basing my prediction on what we know.
If wiiu will se a price cut to 99 bucks, a sudden release if many unannounced games,a minecraft nintendo edition retail release with bundle and dqxi at the same time of the 3ds I think it will sell better than 14

I expect every system except PS4 and NX to be down YoY.

NX: Most likely supply constrained.
3DS: less than 2M
PS4: 1.5M-1.7M
WiiU: 650K
Vita: 800K
PS3: 100K
XBO: lol

That is I expect YTD in 2016 to be lower than the record low 2015 without NX.

EDIT:
BTW who expect WiiU to outsell GC in Japan?
GC LTD is about 4M.

If it will die as quick as other nintendo consoles after the announce of the new hw it will not hit the 4 millions mark

 

[GAS]

Week 53 of 2015?

Not first week of 2016?

 

[ZSaberLink]

Week 53 of 2015?

Not first week of 2016?

Media Create does Week 53 of 2015. Famitsu calls it Week 1 of 2016. Chris is just following their semantics (so yes, Famitsu's and MC's weeks will be off for a while)

 

[Arzehn]

I expect every system except PS4 and NX to be down YoY.

I think there's a good chance Vita is up YoY this year. I'm not going to make a list but there's more big titles next year then the Vita has ever had. IPs that include DQ, FF, and SaGa.

 

[Man God]

I think there's a good chance Vita is up YoY this year. I'm not going to make a list but there's more big titles next year then the Vita has ever had. IPs that include DQ, FF, and SaGa.

SaGa isn't a big deal. World of FF probably won't do much either, so it's all down to whether or not DQ Builders can take off.

 

[Oregano]

SaGa isn't a big deal. World of FF probably won't do much either, so it's all down to whether or not DQ Builders can take off.

You're forgetting Kan Colle(LOL). I also wonder if Namco will announce/release God Eater 3 this year.

 

[Aostia]

I am not against vita being up YoY but keep in mind that it is not only a matter of new games but also a matter of possible new target. So it should be important also to understand if the new titles can bring in new costumers
Vita probably has a chance while wii u probably not with just new nintendo games.

 

[GAS]

Media Create does Week 53 of 2015. Famitsu calls it Week 1 of 2016. Chris is just following their semantics (so yes, Famitsu's and MC's weeks will be off for a while)

But under Last YTD we have the numbers of the first week of 2015.

 

[Ōkami]

But under Last YTD we have the numbers of the first week of 2015.

There was no week 53 in 2014, so there's nothing to compare it to there.

 

[BriBri]

I think there's a good chance Vita is up YoY this year. I'm not going to make a list but there's more big titles next year then the Vita has ever had. IPs that include DQ, FF, and SaGa.

I was going to propose an avatar bet but you appear to be avatar-less dear GAFfer.

 

[GloriousBagel]

I am not against vita being up YoY but keep in mind that it is not only a matter of new games but also a matter of possible new target. So it should be important also to understand if the new titles can bring in new costumers
Vita probably has a chance while wii u probably not with just new nintendo games.

An FF game, Project Sasuna and Dragon Quest Builders will definitely attract new customers.

 

[Chris1964]

Hardware forecast based only to the number or sales potential of new titles...

3DS will have many heavy hitters in 2016. Comparing to 2015 it's like day and night. it must be way up Y-O-Y too.

 

[Ōkami]

With Minecraft and some other titles Vita is now appealing to a whole new demographic though.

I wouldn't bet on it being YoY, but wouldn't write it off either.

 

[Spiegel]

To have a chance of being up or coming close to 2015 Sony would have to plan a price drop and release a huge amount of hardware bundles/colors/special editions.

Knowing Sony and seeing that this is Vita's 5th year... I don't expect much.

 

[ZSaberLink]

An FF game, Project Sasuna and Dragon Quest Builders will definitely attract new customers.

Hard to say honestly. DQ Builders is probably going to be the interesting one, as Vita is indirectly the primary platform. Not sure how World of FF will do and Project Setsuna is pretty small.

 

[Scum]

Isn't DQ Builders expensive? 8000yen or something...?

 

[Chris1964]

With Minecraft and some other titles Vita is now appealing to a whole new demographic though.

I wouldn't bet on it being YoY, but wouldn't write it off either.

The system is in its 5th year and it's not like it has any huge titles coming. Whatever it had to give gave it. Minecraft only slowed down the drop, something similar to Splatoon.

 

[Oregano]

The system is in its 5th year and it's not like it has any huge titles coming. Whatever it had to give gave it. Minecraft only slowed down the drop, something similar to Splatoon.

World of FF is pretty big. It's an internally developed(AFAIK) FF spin off in a hugely popular genre which has Nomura designs and a whole lot of fan service. On the PSP that would have hit over 500k easy.

 

[Aostia]

What I tried to say it is that is not only a matter of how much a game will sell but also how many people interested in those games don't already own the hw. And I repeat that I am not writing off Vita possible increase.
But if DQB will sell because Minecraft already created/brought a certainly demographic then part of that demographic is already there.
I mean: why a million seller as mk8 didn't impact hw sales that much in 2014? And wiiu of course wasn't saturated considering its low install base...

 

[thestopsign]

You're forgetting Kan Colle(LOL). I also wonder if Namco will announce/release God Eater 3 this year.

Kan Colle has literally been losing pre-orders in Comgnet for months, it has gotten delayed into oblivion and will very likely have a much smaller sales impact than it could have.

I think 3DS will be roughly flat yoy if the NX does not have a major impact on it or replace it.

 

[Arzehn]

Hardware forecast based only to the number or sales potential of new titles...

3DS will have many heavy hitters in 2016. Comparing to 2015 it's like day and night. it must be way up Y-O-Y too.

The audiences reached on 3DS are already there. Those are the people who already bought YW, MH, and DQ.

For Vita FF, and DQ (not only Builders, but DQH2 as well) are new audiences. Plus Minecraft will still be going strong, especially with more kids getting their hands on it this Christmas and sharing with friends.

I didn't mention Kancolle because that audience is probably already there.

I'm not making bets or fighting over it here, I'm just saying it's not a lock to be down, imo.

 

[Chris1964]

The audiences reached on 3DS are already there. Those are the people who already bought YW, MH, and DQ.

For Vita FF, and DQ (not only Builders, but DQH2 as well) are new audiences. Plus Minecraft will still be going strong, especially with more kids getting their hands on it this Christmas and sharing with friends.

Before MH4 comes out the audience was supposed to be there from 3G. A huge title always makes the difference from the spinoffs. DQ is the same.

Even for MHX retailers mentioned that MHP3 players were returning for this version and that showed at hw sales. MH Stories is entirely different so the audience is not entirelly there.

Builders audience is Minecraft audience and DQH remains a Musou audience.

 

[Arzehn]

Before MH4 comes out the audience was supposed to be there from 3G. A huge title always makes the difference from the spinoffs. DQ is the same.

Even for MHX retailers mentioned that MHP3 players were returning for this version and that showed at hw sales. MH Stories is entirely different so the audience is not entirelly there.

MHP3 players sounds like a new audience for X. Improved performance (load times) of the n3ds for these titles probably helped too. It would be enough reason for me anyway.

Ultimately though, I don't want to draw too many parallels with 3DS and Vita, because I don't feel they are in the same situations on the market. That and Vita will probably never get a mainline of the massive third party IPs.

Builders audience is Minecraft audience and DQH remains a Musou audience.

Don't agree they are the same audience. Builders will maybe end up with the same audience, but the people they are trying to attract first at that pricetag is DQ fans.

 

[ZSaberLink]

For fun, which of these do you think will sell more in Japan?


Hyrule Warriors Legends (3DS) or the Vita SKU of DQHeroes 2?

 

[Moor-Angol]

For fun, which of these do you think will sell more in Japan?


Hyrule Warriors Legends (3DS) or the Vita SKU of DQHeroes 2?

you should even not ask it, how could a high set price Minecraft clone on a small userbase platform sell more than a good known brand on a widely larged installed base platform???

 

[Vena]

you should even not ask it, how could a high set price Minecraft clone on a small userbase platform sell more than a good known brand on a widely larged installed base platform???

DQHeroes 2 not DQB.

 

[Alrus]

For fun, which of these do you think will sell more in Japan?


Hyrule Warriors Legends (3DS) or the Vita SKU of DQHeroes 2?

I expect both of them to sell badly to mediocre. The musou genre has never been strong on handhelds. Musou crossover sequels also usually do much worse than their predecessors.

 

[Ōkami]

Also, the biggest publishers of the year should be something like this.

1. Nintendo
2. Bandai Namco
3. Capcom
4. Level 5
5. Square Enix
6. SCE
7. Konami
8. Pokémon Co.
9. SEGA
10. Koei Tecmo

Nintendo is the largest publisher of the year by a pretty large margin, they sold over 3m units more than Bandai Namco, maybe even twice as much.

Must do a correction here, but forgot a big game that came out at the end of the year, so the list should actually be like this.

1. Nintendo
2. Bandai Namco
3. Capcom
4. Level 5
5. Square Enix
6. SCE
7. Konami
8. Mixi
9. Pokémon Co.
10. SEGA

Bamco is the largest publisher in terms of games released with over 53, so on average, one per week.

The difference of TPC and Mixi is also very, very small, so most likely TPC is actually above it.

 

[ZSaberLink]

DQHeroes 2 not DQB.

Thanks .

 

[horuhe]

So, I have some info about selected stores. Maybe it could be interesting.

Bic Camera Hachioji
Pre-orders for some games have already started. Odin Sphere, Dragon Quest Builders and Dragon Quest Monster Joker 3 were shown at the store.

Sofmap Akiba
There is a campaign at Sofmap Akiba about Monster Strike. It's not really special, though. If you purchase a New 3DS and game you receive a discount of 1,000yen.
Splatoon amiibo is totally sold-out again. Rainbow Six for PS4 is also having stock problems.

Takarajima Toki
Gundam is getting again a pricecut in this store. Now it's at a special price of 1,990yen.

Takarajima, since there weren't releases this week, was showing stands for pre-ordering the upcoming games. Dragon Quest Builders and Yakuza were the main games. Others shown were Mario Tennis, Card Fight, Shin Megami Tensei, Odin Sphere and Just Cause.

------

According to Rakuten, Yakuza is getting steady pre-orders while it is reaching its release date. Also, we have the yearly sales ranking of the "hobby" category in the webpage. http://ranking.rakuten.co.jp/yearly/hobby/

 

[Bitanator]

With Minecraft and some other titles Vita is now appealing to a whole new demographic though.

I wouldn't bet on it being YoY, but wouldn't write it off either.

Even with Minecraft, it reached a fairly underwhelming holiday even if it was huge compared to the paltry turds it was woofing out the past five years. I would not expect it to be up this year especially if Nintendo's new system has a chance for release during holiday season.

 

[Jon Carter]

The Wii U could have a drop of or under 100k if Nintendo managed to get Level-5 and Capcom do a crossover game exclusive to their platform.

Spoiler

Yo-Kaist Crusher.

Other than that, no, it won't pass the GameCube unfortunately. It had a nice last holiday season at least.

While we're on that topic, didn't the Wii U stay much more expensive than the GameCube? The only way Nintendo slashed the Wii U price is upwards.

 

[Chris1964]

1*: [ALL] Software Sales 2009 <ALL> (All Publishers) {2008.12.29} (¥0) - 2.797.057 / 68.556.398
2*: [ALL] Software Sales 2010 <ALL> (All Publishers) {2010.01.04} (¥0) - 1.766.699 / 65.527.967
3*: [ALL] Software Sales 2011 <ALL> (All Publishers) {2011.01.03} (¥0) - 1.370.314 / 53.870.000
4*: [ALL] Software Sales 2012 <ALL> (All Publishers) {2012.01.02} (¥0) - 1.825.000 / 51.321.000
5*: [ALL] Software Sales 2013 <ALL> (All Publishers) {2012.12.31} (¥0) - 1.759.000 / 49.146.000
6*: [ALL] Software Sales 2014 <ALL> (All Publishers) {2013.12.30} (¥0) - 1.535.000 / 43.053.288
7*: [ALL] Software Sales 2015 <ALL> (All Publishers) {2014.12.29} (¥0) - 1.209.000 / 37.348.000

+--+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
|  | MCreate  | MCreate  | MCreate  | MCreate  | MCreate  | MCreate  | MCreate  |
|  |    1*    |    2*    |    3*    |    4*    |    5*    |    6*    |    7*    |
|Wk|2009.01.05|2010.01.04|2011.01.03|2012.01.02|2012.12.31|2013.12.30|2015.01.05|
|  |    to    |    to    |    to    |    to    |    to    |    to    |    to    |
|  |2010.01.03|2011.01.02|2012.01.01|2012.12.30|2013.12.29|2014.12.28|2016.01.03|
+--+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| 1| 1.209.711| 1.766.699| 1.370.314| 1.825.000| 1.759.000| 1.535.000|   510.000|
| 2| 1.114.565| 1.195.503|   794.821|   875.000|   649.000|   811.000|   399.000|
| 3|   940.943|   961.643|   680.485|   695.000|   752.000|   574.000|   766.000|
| 4| 1.378.293| 1.932.790| 1.094.937|   982.000|   685.000|   730.000|   496.000|
| 5|   896.998| 1.217.094|   860.681|   749.000|   586.000|   845.000|   413.000|
| 6| 1.167.144|   976.672| 1.162.810|   643.000| 1.337.000|   941.000|   694.000|
| 7| 1.067.665|   935.583|   871.546|   771.000|   664.000|   560.000|   693.000|
| 8| 1.467.549| 1.144.290| 1.572.324|   919.000|   836.000| 1.145.000|   974.000|
| 9| 1.288.366| 1.095.707| 1.193.217| 1.271.000| 1.276.000|   921.000|   518.000|
|10|   953.587|   922.882|   912.000|   851.000|   969.000|   597.000|   809.000|
|11| 1.078.598| 1.227.612|   600.000|   991.000|   958.000|   693.000|   756.000|
|12| 1.051.816| 1.447.298|   712.364| 1.035.000| 1.547.000| 1.384.000| 1.285.000|
|13|   790.499| 1.048.568|   867.019| 1.057.000| 1.023.000| 1.005.000|   817.000|
|14|   671.208|   674.803|   626.000|   855.000|   647.000|   567.000|   383.000|
|15|   703.770|   584.454| 1.085.000|   482.000|   482.000|   699.000|   381.000|
|16|   825.335|   661.111|   696.000|   673.000|   987.000|   461.000|   484.000|
|17| 1.078.877| 1.916.602|   885.000| 1.039.000|   894.000|   631.000|   752.000|
|18|   864.912| 1.071.699|   697.000|   836.000|   827.000|   567.000|   392.000|
|19|   567.267|   630.889|   430.000|   381.000|   469.000|   440.000|   235.000|
|20|   573.589|   739.831|   462.000|   422.000|   456.000|   380.000|   284.000|
|21| 1.224.865| 1.121.855|   597.000|   894.000|   844.000|   390.000|   466.000|
|22|   701.587|   674.082|   478.000| 1.016.000|   463.000|   773.000|   357.000|
|23|   556.694|   729.218|   690.000|   592.000|   354.000|   595.000|   524.000|
|24|   621.673|   617.269|   776.000|   674.000|   445.000|   418.000|   404.000|
|25| 1.082.099|   967.422|   691.000| 2.005.000|   517.000|   360.000|   799.000|
|26|   835.473| 1.306.705|   733.000| 1.117.000| 1.010.000|   766.000|   359.000|
|27| 2.891.934| 1.125.460|   619.000|   838.000|   658.000|   391.000| 1.159.000|
|28| 1.254.521| 1.239.750|   873.000|   610.000|   620.000| 1.616.000|   594.000|
|29| 1.026.466|   954.520|   904.000|   947.000|   566.000|   749.000|   522.000|
|30| 1.593.748| 1.444.713|   817.000| 1.435.406|   957.000|   568.000| 1.007.000|
|31| 1.476.314|   973.222|   957.000| 1.261.368|   657.000|   468.000|   582.000|
|32| 1.183.723|   941.960| 1.023.000|   872.070|   554.000|   613.000|   590.000|
|33|   800.909|   881.604|   866.000|   835.000|   585.000|   611.000|   447.000|
|34|   848.940|   909.161| 1.150.000|   547.000|   461.000|   439.000|   989.000|
|35|   933.631|   712.936|   707.000|   931.000| 1.039.000|   696.000|   817.000|
|36| 2.068.093|   678.266| 1.155.000|   554.000|   483.000|   464.000|   541.000|
|37| 1.624.686| 3.196.673|   800.000|   637.000| 2.065.000| 1.439.000|   611.000|
|38|   901.145| 1.540.856| 1.213.000|   582.000|   794.000|   669.000|   541.000|
|39| 1.774.446| 1.346.096|   749.000|   884.000|   903.000|   738.000|   651.000|
|40| 1.101.866| 1.127.543| 1.026.000| 1.450.707|   454.000|   550.000|   444.000|
|41| 1.004.733|   838.752|   864.000|   823.000| 2.919.000| 1.854.220|   420.000|
|42|   849.885| 1.051.689|   835.000|   632.000| 1.062.000|   632.000|   362.000|
|43| 1.292.657| 1.286.742| 1.257.000|   784.000|   846.000|   736.000|   481.000|
|44| 1.094.545|   736.923| 1.361.000|   973.000|   766.000|   435.000|   573.000|
|45|   940.357|   828.892| 1.122.000| 1.129.000|   790.000|   312.000|   420.000|
|46|   754.473|   910.229| 1.081.000|   873.000| 1.253.000|   637.000|   604.000|
|47| 1.103.204| 1.479.110| 1.362.000| 1.135.000| 1.121.000| 1.854.058| 1.979.000|
|48| 2.723.462| 3.276.244| 1.723.000| 1.216.000|   936.000| 1.028.000|   877.000|
|49| 2.165.545| 2.223.541| 2.018.000| 1.646.000| 1.397.000| 1.074.000| 1.065.000|
|50| 3.945.539| 2.838.151| 2.812.000| 1.652.000| 1.723.000| 2.263.000| 1.960.000|
|51| 3.267.504| 3.505.441| 3.417.000| 2.722.000| 2.007.000| 1.909.000| 1.824.000|
|52| 2.423.932| 1.911.211| 1.621.000| 1.701.000| 2.094.000| 1.517.000| 1.129.000|
+--+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+

 

[Kid Ying]

If we align wiiu and gc sales, wiiu third year was better than gcn third and gc fourth year was something like 280k, so i expect wiiu to pass that too.

But to sell better than GC Ltd is almost impossible due to the nx. It wont be that much behind though. Maybe 3,5 million?

 

[allan-bh]

Hardware forecast based only to the number or sales potential of new titles...

3DS will have many heavy hitters in 2016. Comparing to 2015 it's like day and night. it must be way up Y-O-Y too.

I don't think 3DS has room for growth YoY, it's already on a downward spiral and the successor is coming.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Casually checking Amazon and Yodobashi, and Monster Hunter X is still #1, good.

 

[Chris1964]

+--+----------+----------+
|  | Famitsu  | Famitsu  |
|  |   GCN    |   WIU    |
|Mo|2001.09.14|2012.12.08|
|  |    to    |    to    |
|  |2007.04.29|2018.07.29|
+--+----------+----------+
| 1|   184.265|   638.339|
| 2|    58.164|   121.121|
| 3|   186.360|    42.468|
| 4|   497.137|    58.858|
| 5|   214.476|    40.665|
| 6|    59.033|    28.911|
| 7|    89.736|    25.331|
| 8|    42.233|    52.069|
| 9|    31.491|    36.698|
|10|    41.233|    26.842|
|11|    63.551|    13.351|
|12|    50.167|    88.361|
|13|    75.132|   345.413|
|14|    44.688|    95.074|
|15|    80.952|    34.119|
|16|   241.792|    46.517|
|17|   105.954|    24.563|
|18|    29.614|    31.976|
|19|    46.727|    59.356|
|20|    39.324|    31.960|
|21|    26.284|    51.500|
|22|    38.121|    26.910|
|23|    44.119|    19.346|
|24|   101.350|    41.609|
|25|    69.839|   141.926|
|26|    50.173|    73.239|
|27|   107.688|    25.091|
|28|   380.494|    28.704|
|29|   180.340|    22.184|
|30|    47.687|    61.121|
|31|    35.854|    62.725|
|32|    25.294|    49.012|
|33|    32.380|    69.193|
|34|    18.649|    67.508|
|35|    25.762|    43.122|
|36|    41.330|    65.196|
|37|    24.750|   253.209|
|38|    24.850|    55.798|
|39|    21.640|          |
|40|   129.627|          |
|41|    79.972|          |
|42|    16.258|          |
|43|    15.899|          |
|44|    17.709|          |
|45|    20.151|          |
|46|     9.570|          |
|47|    14.231|          |
|48|    16.434|          |
|49|     9.400|          |
|50|    12.261|          |
|51|    21.642|          |
|52|    71.473|          |
|53|    38.659|          |
|54|     7.985|          |
|55|     5.835|          |
|56|     6.323|          |
|57|     5.593|          |
|58|     4.403|          |
|59|     4.719|          |
|60|     3.607|          |
|61|     3.005|          |
|62|     3.266|          |
|63|     2.068|          |
|64|     4.312|          |
|65|     2.703|          |
|66|     1.494|          |
|67|     1.255|          |
|68|       258|          |
+--+----------+----------+

+--+----------+----------+
|  | Famitsu  | Famitsu  |
|  |  PSV #   |   PS4    |
|Mo|2011.12.17|2014.02.22|
|  |    to    |    to    |
|  |2016.01.31|2018.03.25|
+--+----------+----------+
| 1|   402.794|   322.083|
| 2|   126.277|   169.806|
| 3|    48.102|    50.252|
| 4|    42.246|    34.646|
| 5|    47.648|    36.998|
| 6|    26.958|    24.884|
| 7|    62.426|    27.749|
| 8|    64.754|    44.129|
| 9|    37.841|    31.387|
|10|    88.101|    54.777|
|11|    28.270|   128.859|
|12|    30.896|    77.092|
|13|    70.846|    69.974|
|14|    58.305|   204.347|
|15|    34.715|    77.599|
|16|   229.632|    65.380|
|17|    66.370|    44.979|
|18|    55.876|    65.724|
|19|    81.912|    74.562|
|20|    67.850|    90.425|
|21|    67.196|   118.881|
|22|    34.695|   131.581|
|23|   111.565|   184.619|
|24|   174.277|    70.596|
|25|   215.587|          |
|26|   166.022|          |
|27|    71.199|          |
|28|   161.273|          |
|29|    90.518|          |
|30|    71.289|          |
|31|    79.429|          |
|32|   110.122|          |
|33|   102.812|          |
|34|    58.108|          |
|35|    47.727|          |
|36|    75.190|          |
|37|   114.247|          |
|38|   116.122|          |
|39|    72.003|          |
|40|   113.878|          |
|41|    66.033|          |
|42|    71.246|          |
|43|    57.920|          |
|44|    53.628|          |
|45|    63.129|          |
|46|    55.686|          |
|47|    58.115|          |
|48|    67.999|          |
|49|   163.583|          |
|50|    78.611|          |
+--+----------+----------+

 

[Celine]

Chris, I think there is a mistake with Famitsu PS4 latest weeks...

EDIT:
Same for WiiU too...

EDIT2:
Ohh my bad, it's monthly.

 

[Chris1964]

+--+----------+----------+
|  | Famitsu  | Famitsu  |
|  |  NDS #   |  3DS #   |
|Mo|2004.12.02|2011.02.26|
|  |    to    |    to    |
|  |2012.12.30|2019.02.24|
+--+----------+----------+
| 1| 1.095.930|   371.326|
| 2|   454.566|   430.097|
| 3|   121.976|   122.532|
| 4|   136.834|   109.378|
| 5|   166.003|   120.558|
| 6|   221.264|   148.913|
| 7|   135.625|   383.911|
| 8|   209.679|   235.086|
| 9|   293.088|   304.469|
|10|   245.102|   416.538|
|11|   231.339| 1.492.931|
|12|   339.676|   721.897|
|13| 1.447.719|   290.352|
|14|   734.178|   294.036|
|15|   119.320|   400.181|
|16|   566.277|   226.805|
|17| 1.077.897|   286.277|
|18|   792.695|   444.006|
|19|   607.185|   399.744|
|20|   825.333|   318.583|
|21|   585.520|   256.746|
|22|   674.065|   580.392|
|23|   861.448| 1.407.744|
|24|   541.147|   580.709|
|25| 1.477.904|   399.960|
|26|   737.806|   350.281|
|27|   620.023|   229.297|
|28|   506.615|   204.404|
|29|   705.055|   192.487|
|30|   620.670|   186.740|
|31|   535.012|   243.605|
|32|   717.229|   749.398|
|33|   578.799|   641.644|
|34|   392.708|   293.013|
|35|   318.066|   859.971|
|36|   358.259|   343.105|
|37| 1.053.460|   159.700|
|38|   578.867|   188.586|
|39|   230.298|   111.429|
|40|   255.124|   133.170|
|41|   169.911|   143.176|
|42|   163.930|   168.543|
|43|   195.714|   201.095|
|44|   217.639|   152.924|
|45|   333.248|   503.018|
|46|   234.477|   355.200|
|47|   139.739|   693.099|
|48|   615.171|   356.801|
|49|   895.686|   148.143|
|50|   507.447|   133.239|
|51|   221.656|    95.110|
|52|   288.587|    99.753|
|53|   195.120|    99.885|
|54|   245.624|   108.438|
|55|   162.505|   208.642|
|56|   419.844|   110.670|
|57|   378.665|    86.998|
|58|   297.060|   238.602|
|59|   225.440|   503.619|
|60|   367.405|   122.844|
|61|   715.960|          |
|62|   535.735|          |
|63|   204.607|          |
|64|   174.797|          |
|65|   143.877|          |
|66|   170.202|          |
|67|   160.958|          |
|68|   191.772|          |
|69|   224.519|          |
|70|   237.636|          |
|71|   229.061|          |
|72|   147.016|          |
|73|   543.529|          |
|74|   305.840|          |
|75|   101.409|          |
|76|    67.323|          |
|77|    63.842|          |
|78|    48.084|          |
|79|    28.429|          |
|80|    34.605|          |
|81|    19.586|          |
|82|    12.278|          |
|83|    10.724|          |
|84|     6.297|          |
|85|    12.787|          |
|86|     7.978|          |
|87|     2.890|          |
|88|     2.690|          |
|89|     3.067|          |
|90|     2.039|          |
|91|     1.575|          |
|92|     2.583|          |
|93|     1.437|          |
|94|     1.238|          |
|95|       778|          |
|96|     1.050|          |
|97|     1.302|          |
+--+----------+----------+

+--+----------+----------+
|  | Famitsu  | Famitsu  |
|  |   PS3    |   PS4    |
|Mo|2006.11.11|2014.02.22|
|  |    to    |    to    |
|  |2016.01.31|2020.12.27|
+--+----------+----------+
| 1|   169.082|   322.083|
| 2|   297.634|   169.806|
| 3|   147.519|    50.252|
| 4|    85.812|    34.646|
| 5|   112.027|    36.998|
| 6|    71.247|    24.884|
| 7|    45.321|    27.749|
| 8|    41.628|    44.129|
| 9|    91.987|    31.387|
|10|    81.541|    54.777|
|11|    66.444|   128.859|
|12|    47.183|    77.092|
|13|   183.217|    69.974|
|14|   232.421|   204.347|
|15|   165.719|    77.599|
|16|    89.131|    65.380|
|17|    81.579|    44.979|
|18|    37.676|    65.724|
|19|    34.674|    74.562|
|20|   139.494|    90.425|
|21|    54.823|   118.881|
|22|    52.719|   131.581|
|23|    33.071|   184.619|
|24|    22.343|    70.596|
|25|   138.343|          |
|26|   141.731|          |
|27|   132.285|          |
|28|    65.796|          |
|29|   146.948|          |
|30|   108.530|          |
|31|    63.282|          |
|32|    35.760|          |
|33|    36.084|          |
|34|    28.081|          |
|35|   309.939|          |
|36|   122.849|          |
|37|   180.889|          |
|38|   496.598|          |
|39|   296.630|          |
|40|   104.210|          |
|41|   142.577|          |
|42|   112.033|          |
|43|   100.677|          |
|44|    71.779|          |
|45|   100.584|          |
|46|   145.501|          |
|47|    72.247|          |
|48|   101.379|          |
|49|   123.748|          |
|50|   187.115|          |
|51|   200.001|          |
|52|    92.186|          |
|53|    99.876|          |
|54|    84.900|          |
|55|    82.848|          |
|56|    61.237|          |
|57|   107.555|          |
|58|    99.461|          |
|59|   170.422|          |
|60|   132.602|          |
|61|   118.643|          |
|62|   217.530|          |
|63|   211.676|          |
|64|    90.632|          |
|65|   153.896|          |
|66|   106.392|          |
|67|    71.667|          |
|68|    61.202|          |
|69|    80.306|          |
|70|    59.729|          |
|71|    60.925|          |
|72|   115.656|          |
|73|    95.524|          |
|74|   219.580|          |
|75|   122.563|          |
|76|    61.213|          |
|77|   108.192|          |
|78|    63.568|          |
|79|    53.100|          |
|80|    55.145|          |
|81|    47.820|          |
|82|    46.139|          |
|83|    59.933|          |
|84|    48.751|          |
|85|    47.507|          |
|86|   110.236|          |
|87|    83.358|          |
|88|    46.468|          |
|89|    68.204|          |
|90|    36.028|          |
|91|    32.459|          |
|92|    33.869|          |
|93|    29.696|          |
|94|    27.608|          |
|95|    22.239|          |
|96|    18.304|          |
|97|    21.740|          |
|98|    30.061|          |
|99|    37.188|          |
+--+----------+----------+

 

[Spiegel]

Chris, I think there is a mistake with Famitsu PS4 latest weeks...

Those numbers are monthly

 

[Chris1964]

If I used weeks it would need tables with hundreds of lines and it wouldn't change almost anything at the accuracy of graphs.

 

[Pennywise83]

Some months ago I predicted Wii U to be on par with GC in Japan; I wasn't too far after all, Wii U will struggle to reach 4m as far as we can predict but it has a good shot of crossing 3.5m at least.

As for 3DS, first half 2016 lineup is way better than what 3DS got in 2015 + Pokémon 2DS should give a nice boost to hw sales (if those are not limited editions I can totally see a 80-100k units week in February). Plus, MHX and YWB might keep selling well.

 

[1st Course]

I just noticed that a Naruto game is currently the #1 downloaded (#5 grossing) app on the Chinese App Store. That must be something.

 

[Chris1964]

+--+----------+----------+
|  | Famitsu  | Famitsu  |
|  |  PSP #   |  PSV #   |
|Mo|2004.12.12|2011.12.17|
|  |    to    |    to    |
|  |2014.12.28|2020.12.27|
+--+----------+----------+
| 1|   339.944|   402.794|
| 2|   361.736|   126.277|
| 3|   195.487|    48.102|
| 4|   202.602|    42.246|
| 5|   141.718|    47.648|
| 6|   148.783|    26.958|
| 7|    87.271|    62.426|
| 8|   106.666|    64.754|
| 9|    92.339|    37.841|
|10|   145.273|    88.101|
|11|   153.229|    28.270|
|12|   166.845|    30.896|
|13|   423.850|    70.846|
|14|   336.077|    58.305|
|15|   119.674|    34.715|
|16|   152.702|   229.632|
|17|   170.714|    66.370|
|18|   119.619|    55.876|
|19|    96.277|    81.912|
|20|   177.624|    67.850|
|21|   160.086|    67.196|
|22|   108.463|    34.695|
|23|   116.484|   111.565|
|24|    86.163|   174.277|
|25|   303.028|   215.587|
|26|   238.713|   166.022|
|27|   196.872|    71.199|
|28|   197.816|   161.273|
|29|   158.291|    90.518|
|30|   123.673|    71.289|
|31|   113.297|    79.429|
|32|   167.662|   110.122|
|33|   107.561|   102.812|
|34|   529.297|    58.108|
|35|   279.090|    47.727|
|36|   266.078|    75.190|
|37|   644.309|   114.247|
|38|   399.728|   116.122|
|39|   223.570|    72.003|
|40|   415.415|   113.878|
|41|   380.867|    66.033|
|42|   270.750|    71.246|
|43|   274.131|    57.920|
|44|   256.765|    53.628|
|45|   291.944|    63.129|
|46|   109.274|    55.686|
|47|   266.561|    58.115|
|48|   267.111|    67.999|
|49|   387.055|   163.583|
|50|   327.608|    78.611|
|51|   140.075|          |
|52|   258.422|          |
|53|   160.651|          |
|54|   181.855|          |
|55|   108.900|          |
|56|   120.782|          |
|57|   157.529|          |
|58|    83.887|          |
|59|   178.987|          |
|60|   252.269|          |
|61|   337.006|          |
|62|   483.808|          |
|63|   160.511|          |
|64|   196.580|          |
|65|   130.800|          |
|66|   176.988|          |
|67|    95.115|          |
|68|   118.657|          |
|69|   194.702|          |
|70|   134.614|          |
|71|   173.295|          |
|72|   236.775|          |
|73|   788.631|          |
|74|   194.669|          |
|75|   231.024|          |
|76|   165.229|          |
|77|   157.050|          |
|78|   221.273|          |
|79|   108.479|          |
|80|   138.016|          |
|81|   146.831|          |
|82|   104.386|          |
|83|   131.804|          |
|84|   117.456|          |
|85|   243.960|          |
|86|   185.692|          |
|87|    63.267|          |
|88|    70.097|          |
|89|    84.700|          |
|90|    54.844|          |
|91|    41.733|          |
|92|    60.486|          |
|93|    48.924|          |
|94|    65.369|          |
|95|    61.457|          |
|96|    52.494|          |
|97|   152.929|          |
|98|   101.921|          |
|99|    44.080|          |
+--+----------+----------+

+--+----------+----------+
|  | Famitsu  | Famitsu  |
|  |  PSP #   |  3DS #   |
|Mo|2004.12.12|2011.02.26|
|  |    to    |    to    |
|  |2014.12.28|2020.12.27|
+--+----------+----------+
| 1|   339.944|   371.326|
| 2|   361.736|   430.097|
| 3|   195.487|   122.532|
| 4|   202.602|   109.378|
| 5|   141.718|   120.558|
| 6|   148.783|   148.913|
| 7|    87.271|   383.911|
| 8|   106.666|   235.086|
| 9|    92.339|   304.469|
|10|   145.273|   416.538|
|11|   153.229| 1.492.931|
|12|   166.845|   721.897|
|13|   423.850|   290.352|
|14|   336.077|   294.036|
|15|   119.674|   400.181|
|16|   152.702|   226.805|
|17|   170.714|   286.277|
|18|   119.619|   444.006|
|19|    96.277|   399.744|
|20|   177.624|   318.583|
|21|   160.086|   256.746|
|22|   108.463|   580.392|
|23|   116.484| 1.407.744|
|24|    86.163|   580.709|
|25|   303.028|   399.960|
|26|   238.713|   350.281|
|27|   196.872|   229.297|
|28|   197.816|   204.404|
|29|   158.291|   192.487|
|30|   123.673|   186.740|
|31|   113.297|   243.605|
|32|   167.662|   749.398|
|33|   107.561|   641.644|
|34|   529.297|   293.013|
|35|   279.090|   859.971|
|36|   266.078|   343.105|
|37|   644.309|   159.700|
|38|   399.728|   188.586|
|39|   223.570|   111.429|
|40|   415.415|   133.170|
|41|   380.867|   143.176|
|42|   270.750|   168.543|
|43|   274.131|   201.095|
|44|   256.765|   152.924|
|45|   291.944|   503.018|
|46|   109.274|   355.200|
|47|   266.561|   693.099|
|48|   267.111|   356.801|
|49|   387.055|   148.143|
|50|   327.608|   133.239|
|51|   140.075|    95.110|
|52|   258.422|    99.753|
|53|   160.651|    99.885|
|54|   181.855|   108.438|
|55|   108.900|   208.642|
|56|   120.782|   110.670|
|57|   157.529|    86.998|
|58|    83.887|   238.602|
|59|   178.987|   503.619|
|60|   252.269|   122.844|
|61|   337.006|          |
|62|   483.808|          |
|63|   160.511|          |
|64|   196.580|          |
|65|   130.800|          |
|66|   176.988|          |
|67|    95.115|          |
|68|   118.657|          |
|69|   194.702|          |
|70|   134.614|          |
|71|   173.295|          |
|72|   236.775|          |
|73|   788.631|          |
|74|   194.669|          |
|75|   231.024|          |
|76|   165.229|          |
|77|   157.050|          |
|78|   221.273|          |
|79|   108.479|          |
|80|   138.016|          |
|81|   146.831|          |
|82|   104.386|          |
|83|   131.804|          |
|84|   117.456|          |
|85|   243.960|          |
|86|   185.692|          |
|87|    63.267|          |
|88|    70.097|          |
|89|    84.700|          |
|90|    54.844|          |
|91|    41.733|          |
|92|    60.486|          |
|93|    48.924|          |
|94|    65.369|          |
|95|    61.457|          |
|96|    52.494|          |
|97|   152.929|          |
|98|   101.921|          |
|99|    44.080|          |
+--+----------+----------+

 

[Kanann]

Isn't DQ Builders expensive? 8000yen or something...?

8242

Very expensive

 

[ZSaberLink]

It's interesting that the 3DS's December sales in the 1st two years matched and even slightly beat the DS's best December sales. Obviously the DS sold ridiculous in the intervening months (over 700K in a January? jeez...), but still interesting.

 

[Mory Dunz]

I don't think 3DS has room for growth YoY, it's already on a downward spiral and the successor is coming.

I don't think he was saying that.

Maybe i'm mistaken, but I thought he was saying that using SW as a predictor for HW performance doesn't always work. Otherwise, 2016 3DS would sure to be up YOY with all the big SW heavy hitters this year. Which won't happen.

 

[Mr Swine]

8242

Very expensive

That is very expensive, is it the Vita or PS3/4 version? It's going to sell gang busters even art that price

 

[Pennywise83]

That is very expensive, is it the Vita or PS3/4 version? It's going to sell gang busters even art that price

Of course, it's Dragon Quest. People are assuming that the game is mainly targeted towards the Japanese Minecraft audience - the fact is that SQEX want to sell first to DQ fans (which are a lot, and happy to pay a premium price for a game in the franchise), and then perhaps catch the Minecraft - to be fair, given how Minecraft became a hit in Japan only in late 2014 / 2015, and how the game was surely under developed before that, I'm confident in saying that SQEX had in mind Western countries when greenliting this game.

 

[Fisico]

That is very expensive, is it the Vita or PS3/4 version? It's going to sell gang busters even art that price

As you could see on the pic on a above post the prices are different for the 3 SKU with PS4>PS3>PSV