People saying "Sony has given up all hope on the Vita" need to realize something crucial.
When the Vita was revealed, it was extremely expensive. It cost as much as a console, and the PS3 was floundering from its own embarrassing launch and $600+ price point. Sony was still of the mind that people would do whatever it took to own PlayStation consoles (I.e. second job) and planned on success right out of the gate. This didn't happen.
Not to mention that the console experience in your pocket was a failed experiment. You can make an Uncharted game on a five inch screen, but that's not how people want to play Uncharted. A handheld shines with different kinds of games, and Sony's experiment was a costly realization that AAA console-style games weren't going to move the system because they were inevitably lesser than their console counterparts.
Sony, as a company, was teetering on ruin. Entire businesses, like Vaio, were being sold. Bravia TVs were tanking. Mobile phones were tanking. Nearly every pillar of the Sony business model was cracking at best and completely crumbling at worst.
To save the video game division, Sony had to refocus and commit themselves to their most important hardware: the PS3. If the console failed, the whole division failed. The handheld business was a smaller business, but it was still expensive, and the decision to sideline it in favor of the more important product was essential and a no brainer. Sony doubled down hard on the PS3 and took very expensive steps to make it successful again. By the end of the generation, they had succeeded, at the obvious expense of the Vita.
In the meantime, the Vita had received minimal support. It received zero marketing. It suffered a class action lawsuit and was outsold by the 3DS by such a gap that it's not unreasonable for people to not even know what the Vita is. Despite this, the Vita still sold 10 million units. The Vita attracted the attention of smaller developers who saw the system as the only handheld strong enough to run their games. Enthusiasts took to the Vita and the cult mindset grew and grew.
In 2016, against all odds, there are dozens and dozens of small high-profile projects well underway for the system. There is strong Japanese support and weird pockets like Spain and parts of Asia where the Vita is flocking off of shelves. The Cult of Vita is passionate, it is dedicated, and it spends a ton of fucking money. Between classics and natives, I own more games on my Vita than I have ever owned for any other console combined. I have two Vitas. Why? Because people who love the Vita LOVE THE VITA.
Which creates an interesting opportunity.
The dedicated handheld market is not dead. We can stop pretending that is true. The 3DS has sold how many units now? Like 60 million? There is no universe where a device that sells 60 million units is a failure or a dead market. The market is smaller, but the market is thriving. The handheld market has different people in it now, because the people into dedicated handhelds are now dedicated players. It's for people who will never be happy playing smartphone games without buttons.
Which brings us back to the Vita situation. With no help at all, Sony has sold 10 million Vitas. It has developed a very strong and very passionate following. It has created a community that loved the system so much that it makes its own games. It buys multiple systems. It prints physical copies. It funds development of Vita games. Which makes the Vita an indication that anybody can see: there is an elite handheld buyer base, of dedicated enthusiasts, who are desperate for something to buy.
This is an era where people are trying to make portable Steam machines. Where alternate or modded Game Boy Advance hardware is everywhere you look. Where there are entire genres that people say they would rather play on a handheld, end of story, and skip releases if they're only on consoles.
There is money to be made. There are people to be sold to. And if you cater to them, they will catapult their money into your castle demanding more.
A theoretical Sony handheld successor will not sell 150 million unuts. It will be a dramatically different business than the console one. Huge projects and investments will not be made and the install base will be much lower than the handhelds of old. But it can, and will, be successful and profitable because you will never lose the die hards.
So you don't make a handheld for the mass market. You make a handheld for them.
Because there are 42 games on my list for 2016 alone that I am buying for this "legacy device". Vita isn't dead. Vita is different.
We know that, and so does Sony.
Because even though a handheld business will be a smaller one, it is good for their overall brand. When you have the enthusiasts on your side, and when you make the elite spenders want to open their wallets at your command, you strengthen your mindshare. It is significantly easier to sell products to an existing customer than to reach a new one - that's marketing 101 - so watch just how strong that ten million install base can be.
Businesses don't have to be enormous to be lucrative. Products don't have to be the best selling of its kind to make money. The scale, the scope, and the customers have changed, but the market is very strong. The handheld buyer base laments the state of the Vita. They rioted when NOA wasn't bringing the n3DS to the US. The money is on the table.
In 2016, Sony has a successful console right out of the gate. They don't need to focus all of their resources on a single machine. They don't need to make sacrifices now.
Bring it on.
