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The Iowa Caucuses |Feb 1|: Winter is here

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I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
I'm less interested in this for itself so much as it changes the narrative. I doubt anyone will drop out, but the writing will be on the wall for some candidates.
 
B

boiled goose

good with gravy
Macadinho94 said:
Not enough Independents will vote for Bernie in the Presidential election so I guess I'm team Hilldog
Click to expand...

Ummm. You have it backwards. Bernie has good independent support while Hillary does better with older core Democratic support.

Bernie is an independent too, not a Democrat.
 
D

Damaniel

Banned
Ignatz Mouse said:
I'm less interested in this for itself so much as it changes the narrative. I doubt anyone will drop out, but the writing will be on the wall for some candidates.
Click to expand...

Considering that I have more cash on hand than Rick Santorum does (about $40K after his most recent quarter of fundraising and expenditures) and his poll numbers are so small, I imagine that he'll be out pretty soon. I'm sure the rest will hold on for a while, but outside of the top 5 on the GOP side, money's getting really tight.

On the other hand, Hillary and Bernie are flush with cash, and both have had monstrous fundraising quarters. As a result, the two of them have more cash on hand than the entire Republican clown car combined. I still think Bernie will see the writing on the wall by Super Tuesday, but he'll have the funds to go the distance if he wants.
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
on the Republican side, Iowa has been a joke for the last two election cycles.

religious nutters Santorum (2012), Huckabee (2008) wining Iowa then flaming out

the only reason why Cruz doesn't have it in the bag is because he is a Canadian birther
 
M

Macadinho94

Member
phanphare said:
wait, what? I thought Bernie did especially well with independents
Click to expand...

Don't get me wrong I'd love Bernie to get the nomination but I meant if he gets the nomination it's gonna be very tough for him to get independent voters in swing states as the messaging from the GOP will be basically "Socialist this, Socialist that" which will make it very tough for him. Hillary shouldn't have much problem getting those key states due to her more moderate stance.
 
C

Chariot

Member
KHarvey16 said:
As of last year Bernie is in the Democratic Party.
Click to expand...
Official, but independents still know his past of decades as an independents and are very likely to align with him than with establishment Clinton. After all, they're independent and not democrats for a reason. For the same reason the democratic establishment is fully backing Clinton. Bernie is now technically a democrat and was always close to the party, but he isn't one of them.
 
T

teruterubozu

Member
gutter_trash said:
on the Republican side, Iowa has been a joke for the last two election cycles.

religious nutters Santorum (2012), Huckabee (2008) wining Iowa then flaming out

the only reason why Cruz doesn't have it in the bag is because he is a Canadian birther
Click to expand...

To be fair, Santorum beat Romney by only 34 votes (Romney was declared winner at first). It was as slim as you can get. I wonder if something similar may happen this time.
 
V

Vanillalite

Ask me about the GAF Notebook
7 PM? CT?

So 7 PM Coronation Time

giphy.gif


LoL
 
D

Damaniel

Banned
KHarvey16 said:
As of last year Bernie is in the Democratic Party.
Click to expand...

Mainly out of political convenience. He's spent the last couple decades criticizing (and I use that term lightly) the Democratic party, called for the sitting President to be primaried, and even sued the party over something that was essentially his campaign's fault. He could have run as an independent, but he would have managed to get 2 or 3 percent of the overall vote that way. Hence, his 'joining' of the Democratic party. Come the second week of November, assuming he loses, he'll go right back to being a Democrat-hating independent.

I'll still vote for him if he wins, but he's not actually a Democrat.
 
C

Chariot

Member
Melon Husk said:
If I'm not mistaken, the demographics have shifted in Sanders' favor in Iowa?
Click to expand...
Depends what you're referring to. Sanders definitely surged big time in the last months, but the latest polls indicate a slight advantage for Hillary. It could go either way still, it's very close. But "shifted in favour" is not what I would say, unless you mean relatively.
 
B

brochiller

Member
Damaniel said:
Mainly out of political convenience. He's spent the last couple decades criticizing (and I use that term lightly) the Democratic party, called for the sitting President to be primaried, and even sued the party over something that was essentially his campaign's fault. He could have run as an independent, but he would have managed to get 2 or 3 percent of the overall vote that way. Hence, his 'joining' of the Democratic party. Come the second week of November, assuming he loses, he'll go right back to being a Democrat-hating independent.

I'll still vote for him if he wins, but he's not actually a Democrat.
Click to expand...

If someone truly wants to be elected president in this country they have to be a Republican or a Democrat as things stand now. I wouldn't call him joining the Democratic party political convenience as much as it is political necessity the way our system is set up.
 
T

Tom_Cody

Member
Ignatz Mouse said:
I'm less interested in this for itself so much as it changes the narrative. I doubt anyone will drop out, but the writing will be on the wall for some candidates.
Click to expand...

Damaniel said:
Considering that I have more cash on hand than Rick Santorum does (about $40K after his most recent quarter of fundraising and expenditures) and his poll numbers are so small, I imagine that he'll be out pretty soon. I'm sure the rest will hold on for a while, but outside of the top 5 on the GOP side, money's getting really tight.
Click to expand...
Huckabee and Santorum seem the most likely to drop out tomorrow.
Edit: It look certain that Huckabee with endorse Trump on Wednesday.
http://www.mediaite.com/online/upco...op-fuels-speculation-of-huckabee-endorsement/

Everyone else will hang on until New Hampshire at least. Even then, it's really hard to say who will exit following that primary. Outside of Trump leading, the New Hampshire republican polls are totally scattered. Everyone is gunning for a clear second place "win", but the most likely outcome seems to be that it will be a heavily divided field with Trump clearly on top. For all the talk of Rubio's momentum, he could get 5th in NH.

This cycle is insane.
 
Squirrel Killer

Squirrel Killer

Member
Ok, so as a previously-involved-in-politics Iowan, I feel an urge to make predictions about tonight. I'm not going to call specific percentages or placings, but since Iowa is about expectations, I'm just going to predict whether candidates exceed, meet, or fail to meet expectations. I'll list the final Iowa poll results (D, R) in before my prediction.

First, the D's since they're so easy. If the expectation is that Clinton will win, Sanders will keep it close and that O'Malley will be a rounding error, then:

  • Clinton (45%) Meet
  • Sanders (42%) Meet
  • O'Malley (3%) Meet
Basically, I think Sanders will make it very close (closer than that poll predicts,) but Clinton holds on to win. I think O'Malley's absolute ceiling is 6%, 5% being possible, but neither would be high enough to call it exceeding expectations.

As for the R's, it's a little more messy. If the expectation is that Trump will win, Cruz will be a clear second, Rubio and Carson will fight for third, and the rest will be rounding errors, then:

  • Trump (28%) Fails to meet
  • Cruz (23%) Meet
  • Rubio (15%) Exceed
  • Carson (10%) Fails to meet
  • Paul (5%) Exceed
  • Christie (3%) Meet
  • Bush (2%) Exceed
  • Fiorina (2%) Meet
  • Huckabee (2%) Fails to meet
  • Kasich (2%) Exceeds
  • Santorum (2%) Meet
So a little more explanation is required here, I think Trump might still win, but it will be much closer than most seem to think. The expectation for Cruz is that he'll challenge Trump for the win, and I think he at least does that, but he would need to decisively win (not just eek out a win) to exceed expectations. The expectation is that Rubio is in the B-tier with Carson, but I think Rubio is actually a low A-tier and has a shot at coming in 2nd if Trump's support is as shallow as I think it is. Carson and his campaign have been awful, I wouldn't be surprised if Bush and/or Christie beat him. I don't think Paul cracks 10% but should come in a surprising fourth - enough to extend his campaign. I don't think Christie's done enough to go much above 4-5% and I think Bush takes him on name recognition. Firorina's only meeting expectations because the expectations for her have fallen so low. 2% is hard to fail to meet, but I think Huckabee can come in DFL. 2% is easy to exceed, and I think Kasich has done enough to... maybe get up to Christie levels... maybe. Santorum's frothy base will meet that low bar.

EDIT: Oh, what the hell, let me make a specific placing prediction for shits and giggles:
D: Clinton, Sanders, O'Malley
R: Cruz, Trump, Rubio, Paul, Bush, Carson, Christie, Fiorina, Kashich, Santorum, Huckabee
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Squirrel Killer said:
Ok, so as a previously-involved-in-politics Iowan, I feel an urge to make predictions about tonight. I'm not going to call specific percentages or placings, but since Iowa is about expectations, I'm just going to predict whether candidates exceed, meet, or fail to meet expectations. I'll list the final Iowa poll results (D, R) in before my prediction.
Click to expand...

Great post, thanks.

What do you think the media narrative looks like if your prediction is accurate?

For the Dem side, everybody's basically meeting expectations, so I guess the story is either "Hillary Wins Iowa" or "Hillary/Sanders Neck and Neck in Iowa", but those are somewhat different.

For the GOP side, is it "Rubio Surges Late," or "Trump Slumps", or what?
 
Squirrel Killer

Squirrel Killer

Member
Chariot said:
Watch the video, the americans have an... interesting way to do this. Also again: video is pro Bernie, but explains the process.
Click to expand...
Ugh, it's really not that complicated, that video is really over explaining it. Your precinct's Ds get together to allocate their limited number of delegates. They figure out how much support each candidate has, and if a candidate doesn't have enough to earn a delegate, his or her supporters have the opportunity to support one that does have enough support.

Beer Monkey said:
Most non-Iowan Americans think the caucus is insane.

Well, the Americans who understand the caucus. Which is almost none.
Click to expand...
In my experience, people who understand and have participated in a caucus think it's pretty cool.
 
B

Baron Aloha

A Shining Example
My hope is that enough independents choose to vote on the democratic side for Bernie so he can eek out a win. Especially now that it looks like Trump has the republican side locked down. Their vote would "matter more" on the democratic side.
 
Squirrel Killer

Squirrel Killer

Member
pigeon said:
Great post, thanks.

What do you think the media narrative looks like if your prediction is accurate?

For the Dem side, everybody's basically meeting expectations, so I guess the story is either "Hillary Wins Iowa" or "Hillary/Sanders Neck and Neck in Iowa", but those are somewhat different.

For the GOP side, is it "Rubio Surges Late," or "Trump Slumps", or what?
Click to expand...
For the Ds, if it does come out that way, I think it's "Clinton Holds Serve in IA" but Sanders get a bit of a national bump. Sanders is expected to win NH, so I think the national narrative becomes that SC/NV will decide the nomination (unless of course, they don't.) O'Malley drops out after NH.

For Rs, again if it matches my predictions (roughly,) I think Trump bitches incessantly about Iowans (destroying his chances in IA if he makes it to the general) and the media narrative declares it a race between the top three. Headlines would combine yours "Trump Stubbles as Cruz and Rubio Surge" perhaps including Bush as a "surger."
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Diprosalic said:
americans are insane.
Click to expand...

In fairness, the Iowa caucuses are sort of their own thing. A few other states have caucuses (I'm not sure how the mechanics vary from state to state) but most have primary elections instead where you just cast a ballot and be done with it.

That having been said, yes, yes we are. Elections in the US are incredibly convoluted and one of the big issues is just how wide a variation there is between how they work from state to state, even if the election is for a federal office. The Electoral College (the method by which we elect the president) is so bizarre it defies belief to the point where the average American has, at best, a dim understanding of how it works. And that's all just scratching the surface.
 
N

noshten

Member
Democratic insiders believe overwhelmingly that Clinton will win.

Democratic insiders weren’t nearly as divided as their GOP counterparts: They said by a wide margin that Clinton will defeat Bernie Sanders on Monday night, crediting what they say is her vastly superior organization.
“Hands down, Clinton has the best operation,” one Iowa Democrat said. “It doesn't matter who I speak to — whether it's in a big county or small, on the western side of the state or eastern — they all say the same thing: They see no evidence of Sanders organizing. They have a lot of people, but none of them are trained or prepared for what will happen on Monday. The lesson they took from Obama’s 2008 win was that big crowds equate [to] support in a caucus room. They seem to [forget] that Obama also had the best caucus campaign Iowa had seen up to that point. Unfortunately for them, Clinton has a stronger operation than even Obama did then, and her supporters are more committed than theirs.”

Other Democrats said caucus-goers will go with their heads over their hearts and choose Clinton — much as they picked then-Sen. John Kerry in 2004 over former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and then-Sen. John Edwards.
“Undecided Democrats will [be] pragmatic this year just like in 2004 when Dean surged ahead of Kerry,” said another Iowa Democrat. “Clinton has run a good campaign, in spite of not trying to bring new voters into the fold, and Sanders has not made a convincing argument that he is an electable general election candidate.”

But while Democrats overwhelmingly say Clinton will win, Republicans disagreed. A majority of GOP insiders insist Sanders’ energized supporters will carry him to victory.
One New Hampshire Republican cited the disclosure on Friday that the State Department won’t release 22 email messages on Clinton’s home server in picking Sanders as the likely winner.
“Big Mo [is] going his way,” the Republican said, “and Hillary’s email issues are now firmly bipartisan.”

And even the minority who picked Clinton as the likely winner claim the campaign has bruised the former secretary of state.
“My friends on the [Democratic] side tell me that Hillary will win due to organization,” one Iowa Republican said, “but it will be close and damaging.”
Click to expand...

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/insiders-trump-and-clinton-will-carry-iowa-218492

Should be a fun night, especially with the expectations of Hills winning.
 
B

BowieZ

Banned
I think it's incredible how the Democratic narrative is "A win is not going to matter until Hillary wins".

Hillary wins Iowa? Oh then the race is basically over. Or Hillary wins South Carolina? Oh, the race is now over.

The two candidates could be trading wins throughout Super Tuesday for all we know. It really all depends on the media coverage between now and then, which, let's face it, is a self-fulfilling prophecy. If the media promotes Sanders as much as Hillary, then the race will be tight. If they continue to hound us with the presumptiveness of her nomination, she will eventually win.

I look forward to the Washington Post and CNN etc with their biased "Sanders wins Iowa BUT HILLARY WILL WIN EVERYTHING ON SUPER TUESDAY!!" tier coverage.

/loony Sanders supporter
 
S

sangreal

Member
BowieZ said:
I think it's incredible how the Democratic narrative is "A win is not going to matter until Hillary wins".

Hillary wins Iowa? Oh then the race is basically over. Or Hillary wins South Carolina? Oh, the race is now over.

The two candidates could be trading wins throughout Super Tuesday for all we know. It really all depends on the media coverage between now and then, which, let's face it, is a self-fulfilling prophecy. If the media promotes Sanders as much as Hillary, then the race will be tight. If they continue to hound us with the presumptiveness of her nomination, she will eventually win.

I look forward to the Washington Post and CNN etc with their biased "Sanders wins Iowa BUT HILLARY WILL WIN EVERYTHING ON SUPER TUESDAY!!" tier coverage.

/loony Sanders supporter
Click to expand...

Have you stopped to consider why people are saying that?

(The answer is demographics)
 
S

sangreal

Member
cpp_is_king said:
So how does this work? Will we know the outcome like today, or like next week? Is it a 1-day thing or a multiple day thing?
Click to expand...

we will know the "outcome" tonight

I put "outcome" in quotes because on the Democratic side we will only know the delegate count -- the popular vote won't be revealed for like 6 months
 
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