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[Frozenprince]

I get that's what would happen if Trump failed to secure enough delegates. That's not what I'm asking, though I admit my question is long-winded

Bernie would probably run as a second candidate if everything broke like that, to answer your actual question. There have been murmurings in the wind about brokering the dem convention if he manages to cling to enough delegates to survive.

 

[evanmisha]

Bernie would probably run as a second candidate if everything broke like that, to answer your actual question. There have been murmurings in the wind about brokering the dem convention if he manages to cling to enough delegates to survive.

Is the current electoral system even equipped to handle 4 candidates with roughly comparable support?

I've heard a lot about corruption in the US electoral system, and frankly didn't think much of it. Exploring this scenario, it couldn't be more blatant

 

[Frozenprince]

Is the current electoral system even equipped to handle 4 candidates with roughly comparable support?

I've heard a lot about the 'rigged US election system', but wow, exploring this scenario makes it pretty blatant

Not even close, the closest thing was Teddy splitting the republican vote 100 years ago but even that isn't remotely comparable.

IF this chain of events transpires (though it's looking more and more likely that both parties are accepting of what is, the inevitable at this point), it will destroy both of them.

 

[brainchild]

So that's going back what...five elections maybe?

The last big upset was in 1984, when Walter Mondale was poised to beat Gary Hart by 17 percentage points, but was defeated by Hart who won with a 9 point lead.


http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-stunning-bernie-sanders-win-in-michigan-means/

 

[titiklabingapat]

Bernie won MI tonight but the delegate math still hasn't really changed.

 

[benjipwns]

Not even close, the closest thing was Teddy splitting the republican vote 100 years ago but even that isn't remotely comparable.

IF this chain of events transpires (though it's looking more and more likely that both parties are accepting of what is, the inevitable at this point), it will destroy both of them.

Democrats feared it strongly in 1948, both the "split-off" candidates were from their party.

 

[airmangataosenai]

They were wrong about this, but Clinton still came out on top when you add the delegates and super delegates she's won. Sanders doesn't have a chance at victory.

I wonder what month we will be in before people new to the process learn about delegate allocation. The way people treat it like a horse race where every state is a new day or a turning point gives me a headache.

 

[Frozenprince]

I wonder what month we will be in before people new to the process learn about delegate allocation. The way people treat it like a horse race where every state is a new day or a turning point gives me a headache.

I'd probably buy into his momentum more if he wasn't barely winning his few wins and getting absolutely crushed in most of his losses. Like, Yeah he won out a 7 delegate advantage by taking Michigan by a couple points, but he got DESTROYED in Mississippi, which offset winning Michigan entirely.

Plus, well, he's never going to turn the tide in terms of superdelegates so he might as well quit on that one.

 

[benjipwns]

I wonder what month we will be in before people new to the process learn about delegate allocation. The way people treat it like a horse race where every state is a new day or a turning point gives me a headache.

July 25th when the Sanders people challenge the seating of Hillary's delegates.

 

[TheLaughingStock]

Models aren't always right, sometimes that % error becomes realized.

Nassim Taleb is pretty good on giving the layman explanation and math if you want to see the most likely reasons why analysts were blind to this event. Edit: And many other forecasting/prediction errors.

 

[DR2K]

If those polls are off by that much again by next week, somebody dun fucked up and it's time for an methodological overhaul.

Michagan is the only outlier state so far. Every other state has been within polling means. Outside of Hillary's southern firewall being even bigger than polling data suggested.

This race is over for anyone actually holding out on Bernie getting the nomination.

 

[brainchild]

Michagan is the only outlier state so far. Every other state has been within polling means. Outside of Hillary's southern firewall being even bigger than polling data suggested.

This race is over for anyone actually holding out on Bernie getting the nomination.

We all know that Bernie isn't likely to get the nomination. What we aren't as confident about now is how exactly the rest of the race plays out.

I eagerly await Tyler's predictions for next week's states.

 

[Brakke]

According to Nate Silver, it's the biggest upset in primary history.

But what is "big". It's "big" *for forecasters* like Nate Silver, but we're pretty far away from it being "big" in the realm of things that actually matter. Like. Unless this presages a series of "upsets", will it even change the way people campaign going forward?

Is it a story of polling or a story of politics? Did Bernie "win", or did pollsters lose?

 

[benjipwns]

I think the sane thing to do is simply assume a twenty point swing in favor of Sanders in all polls from here on out. Perhaps someone could setup a website featuring these...let's call them, unskewed polls. Then we'd have a handle on the actual state of the race.

 

[brainchild]

But what is "big". It's "big" *for forecasters* like Nate Silver, but we're pretty far away from it being "big" in the realm of things that actually matter. Like. Unless this presages a series of "upsets", will it even change the way people campaign going forward?

Is it a story of polling or a story of politics? Did Bernie "win", or did pollsters lose?

This isn't about Bernie winning. It really isn't. It's just that when expectations based on sound conventional wisdom are shattered like this, it's actually kind of exciting. It means that there's legitimately something to learn from this event that can be applied to the future.

I never meant to construe this event as significantly historical outside of primary elections, so its significance outside of primary elections is irrelevant and really has nothing to do with my original post or this thread.

 

[phanphare]

this is really interesting. it'll be interesting to see what his data points to coming up.

 

[Aureon]

So with the news that Bernie has won the Michigan primary, it comes as a shock to all of us... except for one person. His name is Tyler Pedigo.

I've been following Tyler's predictions for a couple of weeks now, and I've noticed that his statistical model has been getting astonishingly more accurate with every primary/caucus day. He predicted every Super Tuesday state with the exception of Minnesota, and he's corrected predicted every state since then, with fairly similar margins to the actual results.

As I understand it, Tyler uses a combination of social media and Google trends data points, and refines his predictions by honing in on what variables are key to showing how likely a state is going to vote for one candidate over the other.

Well, yesterday, he looked at his data, as was surprised to find that it was predicting an upset, despite the poll numbers.

Here's what he had to say about it:




Link


What's incredible is that this guy doesn't rely on polls; just the internet and some fancy math.

Personally, I think that he should be on national television explaining his model, after seeing tonight's results.

Post-hoc analysis - thousands of people made forecasts, a handful of them are bound to be wrong in the right way.

If he has more datapoints, yes, he should.

 

[Tobor]

"One of the biggest upsets in primary history".

This is some hyperbole.

 

[Vicetrailia]

I hope bernie comes out but we will see.

 

[brainchild]

"One of the biggest upsets in primary history".

This is some hyperbole.

Actually, it's the opposite of hyperbole

 

[Cyrillus]

Superdelegates have had no effect on the election.

Clinton is winning in pledged delegates which are awarded on the proportion of the actual vote

I know this has partially been discussed already, but no one has pointed out this part of the issue with superdelegates: the fact that the news has been adding them to Hillary's delegate count for pretty much the entire primary season. Are you really going to tell me straight-faced that images like this:

Have no effect on the primary elections?

I'm not arguing that Clinton is winning in pledged delegates as well, but let's not pretend that the superdelegates haven't influenced voters in any way.

 

[Paz]

It seems to me like Super Delegates are designed to re-enforce the establishment preferred candidate as the logical choice, regardless of how the technically work in the end.

 

[teruterubozu]

I'm not arguing that Clinton is winning in pledged delegates as well, but let's not pretend that the superdelegates haven't influenced voters in any way.

Well this can be argued either way. Many people also voted for Bernie because of the Superdelegate preference for Hillary.

 

[Tobor]

Actually, it's the opposite of hyperbole

No, I had it right. That article is also hyperbolic, and doesn't even try to rate Michigan as "one of the biggest upsets in primary history".

It's a nice night for Bernie, but let's not get carried away. The press needs a narrative to talk about the race, and this delivers, but the math is still the math. Delegates are still the priority, and Bernie lost ground in delegates last night.

 

[teruterubozu]

No, I had it right. That article is also hyperbolic, and doesn't even try to rate Michigan as "one of the biggest upsets in primary history".

It's a nice night for Bernie, but let's not get carried away. The press needs a narrative to talk about the race, and this delivers, but the math is still the math. Delegates are still the priority, and Bernie lost ground in delegates last night.

Right, but if Hillary won Michigan you can bet the narrative today would have been Bernie's done and should pack it up & go home.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

Man, that's impressive. I'm gonna have to keep on eye on this guy. Always happy to add another number cruncher to my list of people to keep an eye on.

 

[Cyrillus]

Well this can be argued either way. Many people also voted for Bernie because of the Superdelegate preference for Hillary.

Are you really telling me that there were voters who were going to vote for Hillary, but then saw the superdelegate count and were like, "Aww nevermind. I'm voting Bernie." I just can't fathom that that scenario occurred at all.

 

[Hoho for breakfast]

No, I had it right.

No you did not have it right. A quick google search tells me the definition of hyperbole is 'exaggerated statements or claims not meant to be taken literally'.

The statement that it was one of the biggest upsets in primary history is not hyperbole, it's a factual statement. You should take it literally. The polls had Clinton winning by somewhere around 20%.

 

[mclem]

My major takeaway in this election, is how undemocratic superdelegates are. I'm disgusted by them.

Right now I bet the Republicans are really really wishing they had them.

 

[teruterubozu]

Are you really telling me that there were voters who were going to vote for Hillary, but then saw the superdelegate count and were like, "Aww nevermind. I'm voting Bernie." I just can't fathom that that scenario occurred at all.

Not exactly, but it's no mystery where the Superdelagates stand. I mean, anyone who's following the race would know that Hillary is the preferred base candidate.

 

[Htown]

Also, this is, what I consider to be, a very good read, albeit a bit of a long one: http://www.salon.com/2016/03/08/hil...re_rushing_to_nominate_the_weakest_candidate/

A few points to consider, from the article:

There was a twist: African-Americans who now dominate the party in the South made it work. I doubt they prefer Clinton’s neoliberalism to Sanders’ democratic socialism. The win owed more to loyalty to Obama and other trusted leaders, and to Hillary’s skills and connections

smh

 

[Arkeband]

It seems to me like Super Delegates are designed to re-enforce the establishment preferred candidate as the logical choice, regardless of how the technically work in the end.

The head of the DNC already cleared this up:

She added, “Unpledged delegates exist really to make sure that party leaders and elected officials don’t have to be in a position where they are running against grassroots activists. We are as a Democratic Party really highlight and emphasize inclusiveness and diversity at our convention, and so we want to give every opportunity to grassroots activists and diverse, committed Democrats to be able to participate, attend, and be a delegate at the convention. And so we separate out those unpledged delegates to make sure that there isn’t competition between them.”

Tapper responded, “I’m not sure that that answer would satisfy an anxious young voter, but let’s move on.”

 

[Raistlin]

Yup. The superdelegates are going to vote with whomever the popular consensus is. Right now, that's still Hillary, and if it become Bernie before the convention, then the superdelegates will switch this time, too.

Matters how the party sees Bernie.

If they consider him a threat to politics as normal a la Trump with the RNC, then I wouldn't make any assumptions.

 

[teruterubozu]

Matters how the party sees Bernie.

If they consider him a threat to politics as normal a la Trump with the RNC, then I wouldn't make any assumptions.

Yup, DWS will have a High Castle meeting on some secret island

 

[SlaughterX]

I voted for him here in Grand Rapids, and I brought a friend to vote too who's actually from MS. Whodathunk it.

 

[King Tubby]

No, I had it right. That article is also hyperbolic, and doesn't even try to rate Michigan as "one of the biggest upsets in primary history".

It's a nice night for Bernie, but let's not get carried away. The press needs a narrative to talk about the race, and this delivers, but the math is still the math. Delegates are still the priority, and Bernie lost ground in delegates last night.

We're talking about Michigan specifically, not the general primary process. Outperforming the polls that drastically is absolutely a major upset and newsworthy, even if it doesn't mean Sanders is going to win or make it a tight race.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Well good if they don't. The fact that they exist systemically undemocratic. All I stated was such. They simply should not be a thing.

There is nothing necessarily democratic about a party nomination process. They don't have to hold a public vote at all. One could argue that the current system of popular voting that seems so similar to a general election is an awkward fit with superdelegates , though.

Regardless, they are a party buffer against a completely untenable candidate. Sanders is not an untenable candidate. If he somehow gains a pledged delegate majority he will win the nomination.

You better fucking believe the GOP wishes they had super delegates right now.

 

[vainglorious]

Matters how the party sees Bernie.

If they consider him a threat to politics as normal a la Trump with the RNC, then I wouldn't make any assumptions.

Sanders is also an Independent who chooses to caucus with the Democrats and decided to participate in their primary process. There is no sense of obligation or loyalty to Sanders from the party. At all.

 

[Fuchsdh]

My major takeaway in this election, is how undemocratic superdelegates are. I'm disgusted by them.

Even ignoring superdelegates Bernie needs to get 53% of the vote in every remaining contest to win, which I don't see happening. They aren't going to be some great upset in the democratic process.

"Biggest upset" describing a 2 percentage point win doesn't seem to me like it should qualify, expected polls or no.

And the guy's predictions seem wildly off in terms of actual numbers so it just seems like successful dart boards at this point.

 

[massoluk]

I just don't see how the math adds up after March 15th. Florida, Ohio, Illinois, North Carolina, Missouri. That's like 600 delegates at stake, and which of those is he ultimately going to run up big numbers on - let alone win?

Yeah, and considering it's NOT winner-take-all, Bernie will need a huge victory margins on those states, not just 2-3% to overcome earlier losses and superdelegates. Just not seeing it.

 

[Maxim726X]

My major takeaway in this election, is how undemocratic superdelegates are. I'm disgusted by them.

Well, ask the RNC how they feel about superdelegates right now... It may have saved the party.

It works on the premise that the American people are fucking stupid, and thus far that premise (at least on the Republican side), seems to be correct.

 

[Arkeband]

Even ignoring superdelegates Bernie needs to get 53% of the vote in every remaining contest to win, which I don't see happening. They aren't going to be some great upset in the democratic process.

"Biggest upset" describing a 2 percentage point win doesn't seem to me like it should qualify, expected polls or no.

And the guy's predictions seem wildly off in terms of actual numbers so it just seems like successful dart boards at this point.

It was a 20% lead from Clinton that morphed into a 2% lead for Bernie, so 22% difference. Major upset.

 

[benjipwns]

Well, ask the RNC how they feel about superdelegates right now... It may have saved the party.

It works on the premise that the American people are fucking stupid, and thus far that premise (at least on the Republican side), seems to be correct.

The Republicans have reserved unelected delegates for the party that are functionally equivalent to superdelegates. It's just a smaller portion of the total number of delegates than in the Democratic Party. Roughly half.

 

[orthodoxy1095]

Not even close, the closest thing was Teddy splitting the republican vote 100 years ago but even that isn't remotely comparable.

IF this chain of events transpires (though it's looking more and more likely that both parties are accepting of what is, the inevitable at this point), it will destroy both of them.

Bring it onnnn.

 

[Hari Seldon]

The best thing about this election season is that it is exposing how shady the two party system is.

Also it does not surprise me that the wife of the President who signed NAFTA lost the most rusty of rust belt states to someone who is a complete protectionist.

 

[Brakke]

This isn't about Bernie winning. It really isn't. It's just that when expectations based on sound conventional wisdom are shattered like this, it's actually kind of exciting. It means that there's legitimately something to learn from this event that can be applied to the future.

I never meant to construe this event as significantly historical outside of primary elections, so its significance outside of primary elections is irrelevant and really has nothing to do with my original post or this thread.

Yeah nobody has made this about the win. Not CNN, not NYT, not CBS.

A quick google search tells me the definition of hyperbole is

lol

 

[davepoobond]

Well good if they don't. The fact that they exist systemically undemocratic. All I stated was such. They simply should not be a thing.

also, primaries and caucuses are undemocratic. they only allow one party in to vote. it is voter suppression to only allow one party in to vote, amirite??

 

[excelsiorlef]

smh

It seems like black folk never make their own decisions according to some people.

 

[Psychoward]

But what is "big". It's "big" *for forecasters* like Nate Silver, but we're pretty far away from it being "big" in the realm of things that actually matter. Like. Unless this presages a series of "upsets", will it even change the way people campaign going forward?

Is it a story of polling or a story of politics? Did Bernie "win", or did pollsters lose?

Your logic is incredibly twisted mate. That's akin to saying you can't have an upset in a sports game unless the underdog wins the entire series.


It didn't change much for the overall nomination, but it's still one of the better examples of the discrepancies between expectations and results.

 

[Aylinato]

Dare I say coincidence that everyone hates the government of Michigan right now? Literally, hundereds...

I mean it's shocking that possibly MI sees Hillary as representing that same exact bullshit that got them where they are now? So an expression of anger?

Or could be something else. But I do think there are underlying issues there. Mich. Gaf? Speak your posts!

Detroit probably didn't vote in the primary, aka where most of the democrats live. So the minorities didn't come out to vote, alas why Bernie won.