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February 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes March 8th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
slavesnyder
Member
I am not a huge fan of the vision of an all-digital future. My biggest concern is, that on consoles, this would mean a monopoly with free reign over pricing and policies. Also, I am nostalgical, and I like gaming discs (stupid gaming discs).
But I also know what a pain in the ass retail releases for smaller (and bigger) games are. those are risky. With digital, you can be unfortunate and not earn money, with retail, you can easily lose money. Production costs, distribution, panic around the time goldmasters and artwork go out for production (the point of no return), the fight for shelf space, and the worst: returned, unsold goods - all this is really exhausting. Digital offers the chance to at least get you game published, with higher margins and no potential tons of returned plastic. It's not the heaven some describe, but it's at least a chance for nieche stuff. So, I am quite grateful. Noone would release a game like Untertale for retail from the start, but thanks to digital we have it. And I think 10 years ago or so we would not have had it at all.
That this model has the tendency to create closed stores, so no olygopols, but a bunch of monopols (Steam, iOS, google play, PSN, Xlife, W10store) is something we have to accept up to a point. With PC, it's still in our hands. Steam is already a force that can dictate/decide about success or failure. GOG, Origin Ubistore and the rest is rather small (20% or so of the market), but consumers still can decide where they get their stuff.
If Win10store really fulfills what some of us fear (and MS might wish), a full control over digital distribution, this would not only be uncool, but might end with the state intervening. Let's see what happens. It will get nasty, but interesting at least.
It's funny that I don't feel the same about digital console, because here, the console owners already have 100% control over the distribution, featuring or denial of a game. But here it feels more okay than with PC, a platform that still has the feeling of a platform where distribution should be open.
Dash_Riprock
Member
So should we expect another near lopsided PS4 victory this month?
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
The problem is the doom and gloomers that see a constant YoY down in retail sales, and ignore digital sales completely. Despite many companies championing digital sales and saying they are increasing YoY.
Looks like it
DriftingSpirit
Member
More or less.
AncientDiety
Banned
Pretty soon NPD won't be very important unless they find a way to track digital sales. For software sales at least.
Omnistalgic
Member
Shooter genre is in...no doubt about it.
But my fighting game fans don't lose hope. SFV I see is still coming up in the thread a lot and the passion is felt. The hardcore are embracing it, the update in March is addressing a lot of the issues and complaints (extensive training mode, tutorials, challenges, 8 playerlobby/spectator modes and a brand new character in Alex) and after this month all it needs is an arcade mode and some tweaks to survival and it will be pretty even with current fighting game releases.
Capcom does seem serious about the game lasting 5 years and the FGC is certainly behind it. It might even get a spot in ESL which could help it grow even more. There is also strong hints from browsing community sites like Srk, unity, etc...that a cheaper or free to play version will be used to expand into even more casuals. Remember this is a service and that aspect has really not kicked in yet. Capcom is just milking be price point at $60 but the barrier for entry will get lower and lower over the course of the generation while the value for what you are getting will only increase. It may take Capcom longer, but eventually SFV will be comparable to something like MKX or Smash in features. And guess what, those games are fighters and part of the FGC as well. You can have a very very successful fighter, different companies are just trying new strategies. I was worried too after all the negativity. But when we get sequels to gsmes like Gravity Rush. The last guardian being brought back to life. Shenmue 3 and ff7 remake. Valkyria chronicles remastered, Disgaea 5, Persona 5, I mean niche is still just fine, companies just need to adjust their budgets to match smaller audience. From the way SFV launched, I don't think the budget was even that high so they maybe fine with modest to low sales.
TLDR: it's ok to like niche, it means you are unique! Lol...doesn't look like niche is going anywhere anytime soon. In fact the entire VR movement is going to be based around it.
But my fighting game fans don't lose hope. SFV I see is still coming up in the thread a lot and the passion is felt. The hardcore are embracing it, the update in March is addressing a lot of the issues and complaints (extensive training mode, tutorials, challenges, 8 playerlobby/spectator modes and a brand new character in Alex) and after this month all it needs is an arcade mode and some tweaks to survival and it will be pretty even with current fighting game releases.
Capcom does seem serious about the game lasting 5 years and the FGC is certainly behind it. It might even get a spot in ESL which could help it grow even more. There is also strong hints from browsing community sites like Srk, unity, etc...that a cheaper or free to play version will be used to expand into even more casuals. Remember this is a service and that aspect has really not kicked in yet. Capcom is just milking be price point at $60 but the barrier for entry will get lower and lower over the course of the generation while the value for what you are getting will only increase. It may take Capcom longer, but eventually SFV will be comparable to something like MKX or Smash in features. And guess what, those games are fighters and part of the FGC as well. You can have a very very successful fighter, different companies are just trying new strategies. I was worried too after all the negativity. But when we get sequels to gsmes like Gravity Rush. The last guardian being brought back to life. Shenmue 3 and ff7 remake. Valkyria chronicles remastered, Disgaea 5, Persona 5, I mean niche is still just fine, companies just need to adjust their budgets to match smaller audience. From the way SFV launched, I don't think the budget was even that high so they maybe fine with modest to low sales.
TLDR: it's ok to like niche, it means you are unique! Lol...doesn't look like niche is going anywhere anytime soon. In fact the entire VR movement is going to be based around it.
NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - Feb-2016
1. PS4 - 368K
2. XB1 - 226K
3. 3DS - 107K
4. WIU - 54K
And as big news for CosmicQueso,
Nintendo is adding in an AC Adapter to the new MHX n3DSXL console in Japan! Maybe Nintendo's figured they've gotten all the upgrades they're going to get, so finally going to start appealing to new buyers again and need to put the AC Adapter back in to do that?
1. PS4 - 368K
2. XB1 - 226K
3. 3DS - 107K
4. WIU - 54K
And as big news for CosmicQueso,
Nintendo is adding in an AC Adapter to the new MHX n3DSXL console in Japan! Maybe Nintendo's figured they've gotten all the upgrades they're going to get, so finally going to start appealing to new buyers again and need to put the AC Adapter back in to do that?
slavesnyder
Member
CosmicQueso
Member
Total down double digit %. Poopy.
Pretty soon? More like 2013.
Pretty soon? More like 2013.
Zhuge EX predictions for February NPD 2016
PS4 - 360,000
XB1 - 240,000
~$300,000,000 hardware(-20%)
~$320,000,000 software (-5.6%)
~$860,000,000 - Total inc Accessories
PS4 - 360,000
XB1 - 240,000
~$300,000,000 hardware(-20%)
~$320,000,000 software (-5.6%)
~$860,000,000 - Total inc Accessories
I'm asssuming HW?
slavesnyder
Member
Depends on the console. I think ration will be bigger than 2:3 this time.I found Zhuge prediction pessimist
No huge promos on both sides I guess, and PS4 having the more release.
(Fixed for Welfare)
Welfare
Member
That could affect hardware sales in any way? Might want to get rid of the s in releases.
Chobel
Member
What about software?
AncientDiety
Banned
Oh yeah good point.
Welfare
Member
Cosmic should be referring to just home console sales since the 3DS is going to be massively down YoY, so a decrease of double digit would be expected.
slavesnyder
Member
Fixed. Also the "better". It's relative.
On the other hand there was Firewatch.
slavesnyder
Member
There was a re-release?Anyway, I want to state by now that, I'm not kidding, I hope creamsugar (or whoever wants to) posts how Bayonetta 2's re-release fared
Better question would have been :
There was a Bayonetta 2?
Welfare
Member
Just Bayo 2 I think. First release included the first game.
ethomaz
Banned
If I remember hw in January was flat even with PS4 being 20% up.
slavesnyder
Member
One question concerning our new beloved metric.
In contrast to console install base / consoles sold, MAU can, theoretically, become less over time, right?
In contrast to console install base / consoles sold, MAU can, theoretically, become less over time, right?
Welfare
Member
Yes. For example, the Xbox 360's MAU in 2016 is going to be less than what it was in 2012.
MAU however can not tell you if a user from 2012 is still playing in 2016.
slavesnyder
Member
Well, to be fair, console sales can't tell you either.
Welfare
Member
I know, just wanted to point it out.
Welfare
Member
1 hour, you mean.
GifGafIsTheBestGaf
Member
thank you, it was a boring wait
The Last One
Member
Strong year over year sales growth for PS4 and even só the overall hardware is down double digit %.
slavesnyder
Member
Slow thread, quick results.
Sony doing everything to keep the race as boring as possible.
Sony doing everything to keep the race as boring as possible.
AncientDiety
Banned
Year over year growth....does that mean x1 is down quite a bit?
Dash_Riprock
Member
Winder what the gap was this month.
Look forward to MAU from MS.
Look forward to MAU from MS.
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
Damn thats a nice strong 3 month lineup when you read it out.
Mlb the show16
Ratchet and clank
Uncharted 4
Also ps4 won no surprise
Mlb the show16
Ratchet and clank
Uncharted 4
Also ps4 won no surprise
slavesnyder
Member
I'd love to, my bet was 400k. Now it seems possible to get close to this.
that would be some clever spin...