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[KingBroly]

Which, again, would still have its multiplats limited by Sony's "All PS4K games must play on the PS4" mandate.

For how long, though? I imagine a lot of PC developers are going to target the newer specs as much as they can then compromise because Sony is supposedly mandating better performance on PS4K.

 

[Neoxon]

For how long, though? I imagine a lot of PC developers are going to target the newer specs as much as they can then compromise because Sony is supposedly mandating better performance on PS4K.

But they can't go balls-out for multiplats until Sony lifts the restriction (which may take a few years, given the PS4 user base). Basically, the NX Console should be fine for the first 2 or so years.

 

[ZOONAMI]

But they can't go balls-out for multiplats until Sony lifts the restriction (which may take a few years, given the PS4 user base). Basically, the NX Console should be fine for the first 2 or so years.

Yeah... that's not ... good.

 

[Neoxon]

Yeah... that's not ... good.

To be specific, it'll likely take the PS4K overtaking the PS4 in sales, & that may take a while.

 

[stan423321]

But they can't go balls-out for multiplats until Sony lifts the restriction (which may take a few years, given the PS4 user base). Basically, the NX Console should be fine for the first 2 or so years.

Sounds basically like Wii U. Not much of an advantage at all.

I honestly think that Nintendo would have at this point a way better chance at gaining third party games by using a "gimmick" of releasing relatively low-power stuff, then passing part of the profit onto consumer, than by trying to chase the competition while still staying behind.

 

[KingBroly]

Sounds basically like Wii U. Not much of an advantage at all.

I honestly think that Nintendo would have at this point a way better chance at gaining third party games by using a "gimmick" of releasing relatively low-power stuff, then passing part of the profit onto consumer, than by trying to chase the competition while still staying behind.

Well assuming NX is multiple systems and you can play the games on whatever Nintendo device they make, requiring little to no extra effort to do so, Nintendo and (Insert Third Party here) saying you can take that game on the go while you can't with other third parties is...a benefit in some cases, but not all. I'd say for stuff like Sports games it is a boon while for stuff like Online shooters it isn't.

What's also a benefit to Nintendo is if you get devs to put their game on the handheld, they basically have no reason to ignore the console as well. So...it should, in theory, help get different types of people on there.

 

[ZOONAMI]

To be specific, it'll likely take the PS4K overtaking the PS4 in sales, & that may take a while.

Not necessarily, developers will start targeting the most likely user base to buy their game, and if the ps4k and new Xbox users buy more software (they probably will as it will be a more hardcore audience), they will start targeting the higher end and not the lower, even if only 20 million combined revised playstations and xboxs are in the wild. If they see software attach rates are multitudes higher on the newer boxes, that's what they will target and the old boxes will getter lesser versions, and eventually just no version.

It's hard to say what will happen, but it will be heavily driven by market research to determine where they will sell the most copies. A lot of ps4s and xbox ones are just glorified media streamers, people have them but don't really buy a lot of games.

 

[Thraktor]

I absolutely agree with this assessment, with one caveat. I wouldn't necessarily say that the simplicity of controllers for Nintendo's consoles is a factor which made those consoles sell the way they did. The NES sold so well because there was virtually no competition and no way to play the majority of its third party games. The downward trend since then is likely linked more to the third party support and overall amount of games than it is to the complexity of the controllers.

However, that isn't to say an adequately compelling control scheme, be it simple or not, can affect their fortunes, the Wii being the obvious example. Like you said, if they have some combination of more games overall and simple/intuitive/novel controls, it could be quite successful regardless of its power.

I think the complexity of the controllers has quite a lot to do with it, more intuitive controllers present a lower barrier to entry for people who haven't played games consoles before, and it's no coincidence that the NES and Wii experienced the success that they did largely by bringing "non-gamers" into the fold. It's something we tend to take for granted when we've been playing games for years, but modern console controllers are complex, unintuitive devices, and they're a roadblock that prevents a lot of people from getting into console games.

The big challenge for Nintendo is to try to reduce the barrier without impeding third parties from developing for the system (i.e. making something which is less intimidating than a "traditional" controller while still supporting the same functionality), and to be honest we have no real idea of whether that's what Nintendo is going to even attempt with NX's controller. The only approach I can think of off the top of my head is to radically reduce the visual complexity of the front of the controller, say by removing both the d-pad and right stick, and using a Gamecube-style front button layout with the surface of the A button used as a track-pad, in the style of the Steam controller. Or, as divisive as people's responses to it were, something like the freeform screen controller patent with some kind of haptic touchscreen tech.

No, in this generation, there is evidence that raw performance has been a factor in sales and in Sony's success. Each generation is its own thing. In this one, power has mattered.

First of all, Nielsen had a look at the data, did some surveys and showed that among PS4 buyers, the improved resolution was the number one reason given for purchasing it, with 'faster processer' the number 4 reason. The 'meme' that PS4 was the stronger, better machine spread quickly across twitter. Anecdotally, it's what got my casual 360-owning friends to pick one up over the XB1. The survey appears to confirm that this wasn't an isolated or unusual thing.

And people were shocked at how quickly these consoles took off - the prevailing wisdom was that without any new styles of gameplay, the average console gamer wouldn't pay $400 bucks to play prettier versions of the standard multiplats like CoD / Fifa / Battlefield etc. The consensus was that, like the Wii U, there could be a good first month or two and then a rough first year as people stuck with what they knew. And the consensus was wildly wrong. The average console gamer flocked to the new machines quickly and in droves for the prettier graphics, and flocked to the PS4 in particular as it had the better visuals (and better price). And tons of PS4 purchasers moved from 360.

Not only that, people were shocked at how quickly the audience for cross-gen titles (in terms of software splits) moved to the newer consoles. This was long before there was any danger of the older consoles missing out on new games in big franchises - people just moved for the better visuals. And it certainly wasn't exclusives selling the games - just look at the sales charts at launch and for a year thereafter. Better looking versions of games we already had were the number 1 thing people were buying the machines for. If that visual impetus was what was driving their purchase, surely getting the best looking console they could would be a huge factor?

Here's a thread where Sony claims to be shocked at the rate of PS4 sales and admits that many previous owners didn't own a PS3. (Establishing that this was, in fact, a surprise to everyone.) Shu pretends like they don't know what drove the sales, but their actions with PS4k speak louder than words - they got the benefit of being the strongest, most premium console this time around, and they want to retain that. Their actions show that they think it was an important part of their success, which is backed up by the Neilsen survey.

Honestly, how can you look at all of this and say that power doesn't matter?

It would be suicide for Nintendo to chase MS and Sony in this regard, but it would also be stupidity not to see the market as it actually is.

Two factors to keep in mind regarding the survey. The first is that, as you can see from the full presentation here, it's based on ~2000 surveys where 8% of respondents own a PS4, indicating a sample size of around 160 for that question (the survey data was re-weighted according to census data, so it could be higher or lower than that). A sample size of 160 means a margin of error in the range of +/- 8%, which is pretty high by any measure, but when combined with the fact that they don't give us percentages for each of the responses to that question it makes it all-but-impossible to properly interpret the results. All of the top five answers given could be within each other's margin of error, for all we know.

Secondly, the survey is of the one territory (US) where, since MS stopped bundling Kinect and dropped the price at least, the PS4 doesn't have a huge lead over the XBO. (Which, incidentally, is reinforced by the survey itself, which also has 8% reporting ownership of the XBO.)

Regarding the rate of adoption of the new consoles, I don't see any reason to believe that this is predominantly due to hardware performance. Keep in mind that we're coming after a long generation which pretty much saturated the market as far as possible, and we also saw an extraordinarily low price gap between last-gen and current-gen consoles when PS4 launched. When PS3 launched for $600, the PS2 was selling for $130, but when PS4 launched at $400 the PS3 and XB360 were both still selling for over $200. It shouldn't be surprising that prospective console owners will be more willing to buy the newer console when the marginal price difference is so low.

I agree with virtually all your post, but the one doubt I have about a shared library is how Nintendo are going to sell people both devices. If the libraries are identical or near identical then someone who previously bought both a Wii and a DS may be content with just one.

It's simple; they won't. If you already own their handheld, Nintendo makes more money if you spend $300 on games than if you spend it on their console. Similarly, if you own their console, they're happier if you spend $200 on games than on the handheld. There's no particular reason for them to incentivise ownership of both devices.

 

[andythinkpad]

The fact that Sony is releasing a higher tier console (and MS is likely doing that next year too) speaks to me that the whole industry is moving the console market upmarket. And this make sense since the gamer average age is getting older.

I think Nintendo shouldn't stay in the $199 tier market. The smartphone has really eaten the low end market away.

 

[Schnozberry]

The fact that Sony is releasing a higher tier console (and MS is likely doing that next year too) speaks to me that the whole industry is moving the console market upmarket. And this make sense since the gamer average age is getting older.

I think Nintendo shouldn't stay in the $199 tier market. The smartphone has really eaten the low end market away.

The Scorpio is a curious product. It could very well not be what we think it is. It could end up being a living room PC that carries the Xbox name. It's a stealthy move by Microsoft, especially if it allows them to get all those fancy Windows 10 privacy violations into people's living rooms where they can record all your habits.

 

[Hilarion]

Would an XBox with four times the GPU really change things that dramatically even though it sounds like it's keeping similar CPU and 8 GB of RAM? I usually think of a new console generation as including a vast expansion of RAM rather than just a new GPU.

 

[Skittzo0413]

I think the complexity of the controllers has quite a lot to do with it, more intuitive controllers present a lower barrier to entry for people who haven't played games consoles before, and it's no coincidence that the NES and Wii experienced the success that they did largely by bringing "non-gamers" into the fold. It's something we tend to take for granted when we've been playing games for years, but modern console controllers are complex, unintuitive devices, and they're a roadblock that prevents a lot of people from getting into console games.

The big challenge for Nintendo is to try to reduce the barrier without impeding third parties from developing for the system (i.e. making something which is less intimidating than a "traditional" controller while still supporting the same functionality), and to be honest we have no real idea of whether that's what Nintendo is going to even attempt with NX's controller. The only approach I can think of off the top of my head is to radically reduce the visual complexity of the front of the controller, say by removing both the d-pad and right stick, and using a Gamecube-style front button layout with the surface of the A button used as a track-pad, in the style of the Steam controller. Or, as divisive as people's responses to it were, something like the freeform screen controller patent with some kind of haptic touchscreen tech.

Actually I think both of our points kinda go hand in hand. In order to present a relatively simple controller which can play modern games Nintendo would need to find a balance between that simplicity and the needed functionality, which is where the innovative/compelling feature of the controller could come into play, again like the Wii. Clearly they can't just release an NES controller if they want a single third party game (or the majority of their first party games) so simplicity would require a new, compelling "gimmick" which gives the player adequate control functions.

I think you're right that a free form controller with an actually cutting edge haptic button interface could work really well but I've seen no evidence that this technology is ready or inexpensive enough. I doubt my eye tracking controller could resonate in the way you're saying too, so I doubt it would work.

Hopefully whatever they have does manage to hit all the right notes.

 

[Schnozberry]

Would an XBox with four times the GPU really change things that dramatically even though it sounds like it's keeping similar CPU and 8 GB of RAM? I usually think of a new console generation as including a vast expansion of RAM rather than just a new GPU.

It will enable VR, increased resolution, and more graphical effects. CPU will still hold things back in a major way, unless a lot of games and engines start getting written around running a lot more code from the GPU.

 

[Maximilian E.]

Would an XBox with four times the GPU really change things that dramatically even though it sounds like it's keeping similar CPU and 8 GB of RAM? I usually think of a new console generation as including a vast expansion of RAM rather than just a new GPU.

How can you deduce to that just from the rumoured "6TF" performance?

 

[Mr. Pointy]

Nintendo just need creative marketing. What they should do is make a new 1080 Snowboarding game, call it 1080 G-Force and bundle it with every NX console.

That way, every NX has a 1080 G-Force.

 

[ZOONAMI]

Nintendo just need creative marketing. What they should do is make a new 1080 Snowboarding game, call it 1080 G-Force and bundle it with every NX console.

That way, every NX has a 1080 G-Force.

Maybe NX stands for Nvidia Gtx lol.

 

[Mokujin]

But they can't go balls-out for multiplats until Sony lifts the restriction (which may take a few years, given the PS4 user base). Basically, the NX Console should be fine for the first 2 or so years.

It should be quite bit more than that, 3-4 year at least, otherwise not supporting in an appropriate way base models would screw millions of people. So as long as NX is around Ps4One levels it should be fine power wise [but we don't even know if they are even reaching that, so we'll see]

Also it should be not forgotten how these machines are going to be more expensive, and we have to wonder how much of those that now have a base model will be willing to upgrade in the future.

I think NX has a chance as long as it's priced right, has the right performance level and of course key software titles to make it stand out.

Everything can't be simplified to the "more teraflops argument" because in my eyes, we are entering uncharted territory here, mid-gen iterative platforms is something that we have yet to see how they perform in the market, similar attempts have been either half-assed (32x) or mostly irrelevant from a software perspective (DSi, New 3DS), so we really don't have true examples if they are going to sell hot or not.

Anyway, interesting times ahead.

 

[heidern]

If the libraries are identical or near identical then someone who previously bought both a Wii and a DS may be content with just one.

In an era of smartphones/tablets it's hard to sell people more than one dedicated gaming device. Even harder if you also have Nintendo mobile games in the mix. The benefits of sharing the library or much of the library and making each individual system more attractive(especially if the console gets 40+ 3rd party games a year because of it) may outweigh the small amount of potential dual owners lost.

I think Nintendo shouldn't stay in the $199 tier market. The smartphone has really eaten the low end market away.

Nintendo aren't in the $199 tier, the Wii U is $299. Unless you are referring to the handheld in which case $199 is a pretty high price and $249 was a disaster for the 3ds.

If there is really a 6TF xbox coming, that's basically a new generation for MS

PS4K is 3x the power of the X1. If MS don't react they'll lose a chunk of their core market. If they come out a year later than Sony they have to make it even more powerful. Their hand has been forced.

 

[Turrican3]

My point was, though, that the existence of these new proposed consoles infers that both companies believe (from the experience of this gen) a more powerful box will sell based on power alone (as the consoles won't be doing anything new / won't have exclusives) and that they quite probably believe that the more powerful box will sell more, and that they can't allow the other party to one-up them in that regard.

Problem is, that's not the only possible explanation.

For example it could be argued that profit margins are too low (while games keep being a bloodbath) and, based on sales trajectories, they need a revision sooner than they used to so they can keep revenue as high as possible.

Totally anecdotal, but here in Europe we've seen the PS4 for as low as 230€ or something like that. For a platform supposedly flying off the shelves that seems suspiciously low, and might show a picture less rosier than what Sony wants us to believe.

Well, it's PR, so I don't know why you would trust it like it's some kind of gospel. PS2 sales figures from Wikipedia are here, and they are sourced well. 30 months after the PS2 released in Japan, the PS2 has over 49 million unit sales.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PlayStation_2_sales

Maybe I'm missing something but it seems to me Sony's PR is correct.

PS4 is at 40 after roughly 27 months. PS2 achieved the same result after more or less 30 months, as per your own source (it was at 49+ by december 2002, but that would translate to 33 months)

There's no particular reason for them to incentivise ownership of both devices.

Unless there are huge profits margins on hardware...

 

[Neoxon]

It should be quite bit more than that, 3-4 year at least, otherwise not supporting in an appropriate way base models would screw millions of people. So as long as NX is around Ps4One levels it should be fine power wise [but we don't even know if they are even reaching that, so we'll see]

Also it should be not forgotten how these machines are going to be more expensive, and we have to wonder how much of those that now have a base model will be willing to upgrade in the future.

I think NX has a chance as long as it's priced right, has the right performance level and of course key software titles to make it stand out.

Everything can't be simplified to the "more teraflops argument" because in my eyes, we are entering uncharted territory here, mid-gen iterative platforms is something that we have yet to see how they perform in the market, similar attempts have been either half-assed (32x) or mostly irrelevant from a software perspective (DSi, New 3DS), so we really don't have true examples if they are going to sell hot or not.

Anyway, interesting times ahead.

I couldn't agree more.

 

[Hermii]

Would an XBox with four times the GPU really change things that dramatically even though it sounds like it's keeping similar CPU and 8 GB of RAM? I usually think of a new console generation as including a vast expansion of RAM rather than just a new GPU.

Have there been any new Scorpio rumours? The ones I saw said nothing about cpu and memory.

It said "targeting 6tflops". If they are still at the targeting stage, specs haven't been decided yet.

 

[Brocken]

Problem is, that's not the only possible explanation.

For example it could be argued that profit margins are too low (while games keep being a bloodbath) and, based on sales trajectories, they need a revision sooner than they used to so they can keep revenue as high as possible.

.

Maybe you should read Sony financial report if you have some doubts, in particular the point regarding how much money they make only from PSN

Totally anecdotal, but here in Europe we've seen the PS4 for as low as 230€ or something like that. For a platform supposedly flying off the shelves that seems suspiciously low, and might show a picture less rosier than what Sony wants us to believe.

lol

In 2008 i find some Wii for as low of 150 euro, so what ?

If you have some link from those Ps4 priced at 230 send me a pm that i'm really interesting. I suppose they are brand new and sold at retailers regularly at that price and not as a part of some promotion, am i correct ?

 

[tapedeck]

Would an XBox with four times the GPU really change things that dramatically even though it sounds like it's keeping similar CPU and 8 GB of RAM? I usually think of a new console generation as including a vast expansion of RAM rather than just a new GPU.

?

Nothing about Scorpio's cpu or ram was mentioned in the rumour. It's releasing probably fall 2017, if power is MS primary objective there's not a chance in Hell its gonna use jaguar or DDR3. Logic points to a Zen CPU and probably at least 16 gigs of much faster ram.

 

[Skittzo0413]

?

Nothing about Scorpio's cpu or ram was mentioned in the rumour. It's releasing probably fall 2017, if power is MS primary objective there's not a chance in Hell its gonna use jaguar or DDR3. Logic points to a Zen CPU and probably at least 16 gigs of much faster ram.

The Neo rumors mentioned Sony likely keeping the same CPU, which could very well be for compatibility/ease of development reasons, so I guess people here are extrapolating that to mean that Scorpio might also end up using the same CPU. No idea about RAM.

 

[TwilightPrincess]

Sounds basically like Wii U. Not much of an advantage at all.

I honestly think that Nintendo would have at this point a way better chance at gaining third party games by using a "gimmick" of releasing relatively low-power stuff, then passing part of the profit onto consumer, than by trying to chase the competition while still staying behind.

It´s not like Wii U, if NX has performance like PS4 they will be in the same ballpark as the PS4k. It would not be hindering ports. It won´t be last gen like Wii U. PC Games are also targeting weaker configs. Look at Xbox1 and PS4 Games, the difference is not that big. Or even Xbox 1 and higher spec PCs....

And PS4 performance doesn´t rule out some flashy gimmick oder feature. Nintendos console has to be so strong, that the big engines can run on it, that´s all. The rest is up to Nintendo to make it a console people want, it´s not only about specs.

 

[MacTag]

lol

In 2008 i find some Wii for as low of 150 euro, so what ?

Not on shelves you didn't. The system was heavily supply constrained for over 2 years worldwide and regulary being scalped for above msrp for a long while too. PS4 is nowhere near comparable despite it's success.

Maybe you're thinking of Wii U which had massive retail drops to €149/199 to clear stock within it's first couple years?

 

[Brocken]

Not on shelves you didn't. The system was heavily supply constrained for over 2 years worldwide and regulary being scalped for above msrp for a long while too. PS4 is nowhere near comparable despite it's success.

Maybe you're thinking of Wii U which had massive retail drops to €149/199 to clear stock within it's first couple years?

I'm talking about Wii in 2008, not Wii U of course. I find easily one at launch despite people all over the internet screaming about how is impossible to find, but that's only my experience and not the dimostration that was an artificial story made up by Nintendo like someone says regarding Ps4.

Ps4 it's not an obsession like was the Wii for 2/3 years, but i think that could match and surpass easily its cumulative sales at the end of the genetation, even without the casuals/non gamer audience of the Wii.

 

[Akhe]

https://t.co/pXuW3FOUtk

What do you think guys?

 

[KingSnake]

https://t.co/pXuW3FOUtk

What do you think guys?

Really? Posting a link without any detail about it?

 

[Eolz]

https://t.co/pXuW3FOUtk

What do you think guys?

Like in the other thread, it really depends on how you read this article.
It doesn't debunk it imo. Nvidia is leaving mobile but focusing on next-gen, so...

 

[Mpl90]

Like in the other thread, it really depends on how you read this article.
It doesn't debunk it imo. Nvidia is leaving mobile but focusing on next-gen, so...

Also, Nvidia already left the smartphone business back in...2015. But they still continue producing Tegra. Nvidia leaving the mobile space is nothing new.

 

[Hoo-doo]

I feel that if iterative consoles with bi-yearly refreshes take off big with a high-powered PS4K and Xbox Two, Nintendo won't be able to compete.

They barely have the developer relations to be supplying enough games on high powered hardware like that and their first party teams have barely just caught up to HD development with Wii-U. I also don't see them going head-to-head in the low-margin, selling-at-a-loss spec war that Sony and Microsoft seem to be heading towards.
Nintendo makes good hardware but this is so far from their wheelhouse that I could see them just not even bothering if NX turns out to be a dud.

Here's hoping they find their niche somewhere in the console space, this is going to be a huge shakeup in the console market and it's going to be really interesting to see how Nintendo will adapt. I think they made a wise decision dipping their toes into mobile.

 

[Plinko]

I feel that if iterative consoles with bi-yearly refreshes take off big with a high-powered PS4K and Xbox Two, Nintendo won't be able to compete.

They barely have the developer relations to be supplying enough games on high powered hardware like that and their first party teams have barely just caught up to HD development with Wii-U. I also don't see them going head-to-head in the low-margin, selling-at-a-loss spec war that Sony and Microsoft seem to be heading towards.
Nintendo makes good hardware but this is so far from their wheelhouse that I could see them just not even bothering if NX turns out to be a dud.

Here's hoping they find their niche somewhere in the console space, this is going to be a huge shakeup in the console market and it's going to be really interesting to see how Nintendo will adapt. I think they made a wise decision dipping their toes into mobile.

That's a pretty big "if". I'm still not convinced the market is there to support this business plan for a video game console. It may go well this time around but I have a feeling it tails off very quickly.

As for Nintendo, perhaps the rumors from last year about them going with a very affordable console that can upgrade over time are true. That may be their niche in this space.

 

[MacTag]

I'm talking about Wii in 2008, not Wii U of course. I find easily one at launch despite people all over the internet screaming about how is impossible to find, but that's only my experience and not the dimostration that was an artificial story made up by Nintendo like someone says regarding Ps4.

Ps4 it's not an obsession like was the Wii for 2/3 years, but i think that could match and surpass easily its cumulative sales at the end of the genetation, even without the casuals/non gamer audience of the Wii.

Perhaps you're just incredibly lucky then. Wii's extreme supply constraints were a very real thing and not only for people screaming on the internet. We'd never really seen anything like it in this industry before and it's unlikely we will again.

I also think PS4 could pass Wii but that's entirely down to longevity. Besides the first few launch months it's consistently lagged Wii sales and never been supply constrained anywhere.

 

[Akhe]

Really? Posting a link without any detail about it?

Sorry? Well, not that you wrong but I'm on mobile and I'm at work right know. I'd to be fast but come on, this is not end of the world.

 

[Bots are better than you]

I feel that if iterative consoles with bi-yearly refreshes take off big with a high-powered PS4K and Xbox Two, Nintendo won't be able to compete.

They barely have the developer relations to be supplying enough games on high powered hardware like that and their first party teams have barely just caught up to HD development with Wii-U. I also don't see them going head-to-head in the low-margin, selling-at-a-loss spec war that Sony and Microsoft seem to be heading towards.
Nintendo makes good hardware but this is so far from their wheelhouse that I could see them just not even bothering if NX turns out to be a dud.

Here's hoping they find their niche somewhere in the console space, this is going to be a huge shakeup in the console market and it's going to be really interesting to see how Nintendo will adapt. I think they made a wise decision dipping their toes into mobile.

They could always use the SCD patent for that. Keep focus on a console with moderate specs (as in the same or slightly higher level of performance of the other vanilla consoles) and affordable priceing, then offer a SCD that ups the systems power to the iterative systems with about the same level of performance. But for the love of god, make these SCDs affordable, too.

That way they could go with a 4 years console cycle, with a SCD releasing two years in when the others dish out their hardware updates.

Given that my biggest gripe with the hardware updates are those probably being as expensive as a whole new console, a cheaper solution could ease that crap onto me.

 

[KingSnake]

Even if the iterative consoles don't fly of the shelves in the same way as the current gen ones, it's not like Sony and Microsoft will go back with the specs. Do either way Nintendo is forced into its own niche in the market. The important question here is how big that niche will be.

 

[Mr Swine]

Even if the iterative consoles don't fly of the shelves in the same way as the current gen ones, it's not like Sony and Microsoft will go back with the specs. Do either way Nintendo is forced into its own niche in the market. The important question here is how big that niche will be.

Can Nintendo survive on a niche that is between 5-20 million between handheld and console together?

 

[KingSnake]

Can Nintendo survive on a niche that is between 5-20 million between handheld and console together?

So Nintendo will lose 70% of the handheld audience?

 

[MacTag]

Some in here are talking about these iterative consoles as if they were traditional console cycles accelerated. They're not and you can't approach them in the same way, you need to think of it in terms of iPhone generations. Today's console will still get a full 5-6+ year cycle, past possibly more than one iterative upgrade. NX can lag Neo/Scorpio by a good amount and still technically manage ports since PS4/One will still see support for years out. NX itself was the first system to spark the idea of iterative console cycles based on Iwata's old comments too, so Nintendo "lagging" the spec war by 2-3 years might not even matter really.

 

[KingSnake]

Some in here are talking about these iterative consoles as if they were traditional console cycles accelerated. They're not and you can't approach them in the same way, you need to think of it in terms of iPhone generations. Today's console will still get a full 5-6+ year cycle, past possibly more than one iterative upgrade. NX can lag Neo/Scorpio by a good amount and still technically manage ports since PS4/One will still see support for years out. NX itself was the first system to spark the idea of iterative console cycles based on Iwata's old comments too, so Nintendo "lagging" the spec war by 2-3 years might not even matter really.

For the same reason you mentioned, while this iteration will still be fine, next iteration the gap will be wider and the issues will pop up. Unless Nintendo pulls up another Wii U and drops another console mid gen.

 

[udivision]

So Nintendo will lose 70% of the handheld audience?

I guess that wouldn't be the first time...

 

[Skittzo0413]

I've been thinking more about how Nintendo might use SCDs to "future-proof" the NX, and I have some theories and questions for the more tech minded gaffers out there (AKA not me):

1. Simplest scenario- SCD includes a GPU replacement, a CPU supplement, and RAM supplement. I can see this being somewhat prohibitively expensive though, as a GPU replacement would be a pretty expensive component, and it seems a bit wasteful as you are essentially bricking the GPU in the console already.

2. Is it possible to use the GPU in the console as a CPU supplement? People here have been saying that it's highly difficult/nigh on impossible to use two separate GPUs in tandem for a single machine. If it's possible to re-purpose the GPU in the console to assist with CPU tasks, and then use the GPU replacement in the SCD for all GPU functions, then the SCD could end up being cheaper as it wouldn't require much of a powerful (if any) CPU.

3. Can someone explain why exactly it is so difficult to use two GPUs on the same task? Again, I don't know much about how processing works at these levels, so if it's simply not possible that really does limit the usefulness of the SCD idea. But if Nintendo could come up with some solution for supplementing GPU power the SCDs get a lot more interesting.

4. Not necessarily covered in the SCD patent, but I believe it would be possible for the GPU in the NX to be removable and replaceable, so essentially the SCD plugs into the old GPU slot. This is fairly unlikely because it sorta counters the simplicity of consoles, but I believe it's possible.

This is all assuming the SCD has a fast enough connection- I know the patent discusses wireless or wired connections, but I wouldn't rule out a direct pin connection, like the N64 expansion pack, if the other options aren't necessarily fast enough.

The reason I think the SCD will play SOME part in the future of NX (or Nintendo hardware in general) is because they have made statements acknowledging that different markets have different needs, and they are clearly aware that the western market values powerful hardware (at least on paper). They need some sort of solution in that respect if they have any desire of breaking into the western market.

 

[MacTag]

For the same reason you mentioned, while this iteration will still be fine, next iteration the gap will be wider and the issues will pop up. Unless Nintendo pulls up another Wii U and drops another console mid gen.

Nintendo tends to be pretty terrible with late cycle support so it wouldn't exactly be a suprise. Microsoft might also cut and run sooner with Scorpio imo, really only Sony benefits by placating the existing PS4 base longer and has a proven track record of great late cycle console support.

I guess that wouldn't be the first time...

It would actually. They only lost ~60% of their handheld audience in the wake of the smartphone boom. Sony's the one that lost over 70% (~85%).

 

[Astral Dog]

For the same reason you mentioned, while this iteration will still be fine, next iteration the gap will be wider and the issues will pop up. Unless Nintendo pulls up another Wii U and drops another console mid gen.

Wii U lived what it needed to live, for better or worse Nintendo is outside the traditional console cycle since the Wii

 

[Turrican3]

If you have some link from those Ps4 priced at 230 send me a pm that i'm really interesting. I suppose they are brand new and sold at retailers regularly at that price and not as a part of some promotion, am i correct ?

It was 229€ on Amazon.de some weeks ago, 500GB model.
And PS4, at least here in Italy, has been more or less regularly present in retailer flyers for a long long time (not as cheap as that to be fair, AFAIK), something you shouldn't really expect for a Wii-like phenomenon.

 

[KingSnake]

Nintendo tends to be pretty terrible with late cycle support so it wouldn't exactly be a suprise. Microsoft might also cut and run sooner with Scorpio imo, really only Sony benefits by placating the existing PS4 base longer and has a proven track record of great late cycle console support.

Yeah, but with the iterative consoles, the mid and late cycle should overlap with the early and mid cycle of the next iteration. So this should not happen again. But this also mean that NX2 can't be too far away in specs from NX. Which will mean that the gap will get big enough for Nintendo to lose contact with the others in the second iteration.

I think Microsoft plans Scorpio as the first console in the iterative ones, they will break from Xbone.

So for me, Nintendo is creating their own niche going forward.

 

[Turrican3]

4. Not necessarily covered in the SCD patent, but I believe it would be possible for the GPU in the NX to be removable and replaceable, so essentially the SCD plugs into the old GPU slot. This is fairly unlikely because it sorta counters the simplicity of consoles, but I believe it's possible.

I was thinking about something slightly different: would it be actually feasible to have an expansion bus exposed (Nintendo has been doing this a lot in the past), aimed at something like SLI in the PC world?

 

[Skittzo0413]

I was thinking about something slightly different: would it be actually feasible to have an expansion bus exposed (Nintendo has been doing this a lot in the past), aimed at something like SLI in the PC world?

I think earlier in this thread we had a few people saying that SLI doesn't optimize well for gaming, for whatever reason. That's one of the things I'd like some more tech minded people to expand on, especially now that we are trying to figure out if an NX with SCDs could compete with a 6TF Scorpio.

 

[Mr. Pointy]

I've been thinking more about how Nintendo might use SCDs to "future-proof" the NX, and I have some theories and questions for the more tech minded gaffers out there (AKA not me):

1. Simplest scenario- SCD includes a GPU replacement, a CPU supplement, and RAM supplement. I can see this being somewhat prohibitively expensive though, as a GPU replacement would be a pretty expensive component, and it seems a bit wasteful as you are essentially bricking the GPU in the console already.
.

I was thinking that the SCD could use defected chips from the fab that can't be used in the consoles. For example, they may not necessarily need the same number of CPU cores for the SCD so they can use parts with more CPU defects.

I think earlier in this thread we had a few people saying that SLI doesn't optimize well for gaming, for whatever reason. That's one of the things I'd like some more tech minded people to expand on, especially now that we are trying to figure out if an NX with SCDs could compete with a 6TF Scorpio.

There's always going to be some kind of software overhead. So if one SCD and console have the same GPU specs, you won't get 2x performance. It's more like 1.7-1.8x. If you can plug in more than one SCD, the overhead increases as well.

I've heard that DX12's implementation of multi-GPU is pretty easy to get working compared to SLI or Crossfire, and it allows for asymmetrical GPU configs. Does Vulkan have a similar thing?