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As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need A Guaranteed Basic Income

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I think we as a civilization will have to at some point. But I'm sure it won't happen in our lifetime.

Considering how much the world has changed in MY lifetime so far (i'm 21), i suspect that by the time i'm 80 shit is gonna become fucking nuts! Like i honestly don't think i can even imagine some of the advances, cultural shifts, economic and environmental issues, etc that will happen in the next 50 years.

Shit is gonna get crazy, and I think some of you are underestimating how fact tech is growing. 10 years alone has brought us so much and so much societal and legislative change. Personally I think the next 20 years are gonna be the most interesting. Theres gonna be a lot of legislative counter-measures that will try to be put into place to "protect the worker" because of "work is life" culture in North America. Those measures might work for a few years, but I expect them to fail. I also expect that due to emotional politics that contingencies won't be put in place because "ethic" (or rather political rhetoric parading as ethics) which will eventually cause millions upon millions of people to become unemployed, poor, and cause the wealth gap to not just grow worse than now, but basically almost capsize the economy of several countries.

Yeah.. pessimistic, but we've seen how deadlocked political parties can be about serious issues that need things to change. We've seen idiotic rhetoric and poor arguments cause thing to end up worse for people. I expect NO different from automation and the needs of the people. People might not expect it to happen "within our lifetimes" but it most likely will happen.

Seriously advances in big data, robotics, automation, and other tech fields is much faster and crazier than many of you give them credit for!
 
So many uninformed opinions in this thread I don't know were to begin. Automation will take a shitton of jobs over the next 30 years and it will also create some. Basic income will be needed in the future or a big pivot from the system we have today. Alot of underestimates I'm reading.
 
Employers pay less than they should according to a labourer's productivity. They labourer takes this because they effectively have no choice. The leverage is extremely lobsided.

Theoretically, BI would have to indexed against inflation.

Employers pay what they need to get enough willing workers to get the job done.
 

Geist-

Member
It's an interesting concept, but where does the money come from? I mean, $10,000 a year for (numbers from my ass) ~200 million adults is another $2 trillion a year. Sure you could pretty much get rid of welfare and social security but does that cover it?
I'm sure someone has already answered, but whoever owns the automation is obviously making the money that the previous human worker was making, so theoretically it would come from them.
 
So many uninformed opinions in this thread I don't know were to begin. Automation will take a shitton of jobs over the next 30 years and it will also create some. Basic income will be needed in the future or a big pivot from the system we have today.

We probably won't need as much money when everything is made cheap as hell because robots.

Then the robots will kill us and take the money.
 

MC Safety

Member
Look at the money lost on tax breaks and loopholes to companies. Look at the humoungous unecessary budget the US has for it's military. Try to fix those issues and you will end up with lots of money to go around for a basic income.

Military funding is extensive, but nowhere near the amount the country allocates for non-discretionary spending. Roughly 72 percent of the budget is allocated for mandatory programs and debt payment.
 

StayDead

Member
I'm against putting every able-bodied person on welfare.

You shouldn't have to live to work.

You should have the option to decide when and if you want to work. We have very short lives on this mortal coil and most people slave away to some asshole who cares very little about that existance just so they don't die. Is that a good way to live? Hell no.

Let people live their lives and use supplementary work if they want to for person enrichment. Think of how much more you coould achieve with your life if you didn't have to throw 40-50 hours away of it a week doing a single task. You might enjoy it, that''s great for you. You could continue working, but for your own benefit rather than keeping you out of a coffin.
 

grumble

Member
You shouldn't have to live to work.

You should have the option to decide when and if you want to work. We have very short lives on this mortal coil and most people slave away to some asshole who cares very little about that existance just so they don't die. Is that a good way to live? Hell no.

Let people live their lives and use supplementary work if they want to for person enrichment. Think of how much more you coould achieve with your life if you didn't have to throw 40-50 hours away of it a week doing a single task. You might enjoy it, that''s great for you. You could continue working, but for your own benefit rather than keeping you out of a coffin.

You shouldn't be a parasite either, living off the labour of others for your whole life. That basic income is paid for by others, high productivity people who use capital to enhance their productivity further. Saying it's ethical to do nothing and relax is wrong. You may not be contributing everything, but go do basic research or something.
 
What's the point of guaranteeing an income to everyone vs. just establishing a social safety net robust enough to support everyone who can't find work? Even in the age of automation there will still be plenty of jobs for humans.
You should talk to baby boomers in the rust belt about this hypothesis.
 

StayDead

Member
]You shouldn't be a parasite either, living off the labour of others for your whole life[/B]. That basic income is paid for by others, high productivity people who use capital to enhance their productivity further. Saying it's ethical to do nothing and relax is wrong. You may not be contributing everything, but go do basic research or something.

That's the point, everyone would be living off the automation and actually enjoying their lives. That's what automation should bring.
 
This is anathema to GOP policy. Bootstraps and all. I can't imagine what society will have to look like for this to get any kind of traction in modern American politics.
 

ISOM

Member
There are massive hurdles to guaranteed basic income, racism, classism, political ideology. I don't see it happening unless there is a catastrophe of some kind.
 

sohois

Member
Military funding is extensive, but nowhere near the amount the country allocates for non-discretionary spending. Roughly 72 percent of the budget is allocated for mandatory programs and debt payment.

I posted a potential breakdown of a UBI costing on page 4, but I guess it was too long for everyone so let me lay out another simple account of UBI:

The US currently spends ~$1.9Trillion on Welfare, which if all spent on UBI would amount to around $5800 per person. And note that it is realistic that the entire amount be spent, since you remove the vast majority of admin costs.

We can assume that an appropriate UBI would be in the region of $15'000 to $20'000 per year. Remember that this is a basic income, enough to live on but not supposed to be for more, so that seems reasonable. You might comment that rent in cities is far too high to live off that, but also remember that with UBI you would no longer need to move for work, and could simply live in the countryside where housing is far cheaper.

That means the government would need to find between $9k to $14k per person extra to fund such a scheme. That's between $2.88Trillion and $4.88Trillion in extra tax revenues.

Some of that money will come from simple economic growth. The US economy tends to grow faster (~3%) than its population (~1%) so we can expect more tax revenue. If such numbers hold up in say, 10 years time, and the US spends one third of the extra on welfare, that accounts for ~$1500 per person

Now how about spending cuts? The US spends 1.5Trillion on healthcare, 1Trillion on Education and 800Billion on the military, or in 10 years lets say 2Tril, 1.3Tril & 1Tril. Take 10% from health and education, and 50% from the military, and that gets you $800Bil, or around $2500 per person. Bear in mind that for education and health this would still represent an increase on their current budgets in 2016.

The US now needs around $1.5 Trillion in extra taxes to reach the lower bound for a UBI, which in 2026 would be just over a 15% increase in total tax revenue. That's not so unaffordable.
 

theecakee

Member
I think the government needs to place laws and restrictions on AI use with certain jobs.

They couldn't do much for replacing factory or call center jobs, because the those jobs would just go to countries where the laws don't exist.

You can't outsource a bus driver or a cashier. It's kind of harsh, but it will be a disaster if those two industries go fully automated.

Probably not that simple, but neither is paying everyone a base salary.
 

MUnited83

For you.
You shouldn't be a parasite either, living off the labour of others for your whole life. That basic income is paid for by others, high productivity people who use capital to enhance their productivity further. Saying it's ethical to do nothing and relax is wrong. You may not be contributing everything, but go do basic research or something.

Those are people that will benefit a lot financially from automation, so I don't exactly see the issue with them using a little bit of the humungous profit they got from automation to help their fellow man.
 

iamblades

Member
I'm sure someone has already answered, but whoever owns the automation is obviously making the money that the previous human worker was making, so theoretically it would come from them.

That's not how it works though, even at the breakeven point. At the breakeven point where the cost of the robot and the cost of the human are even, the person who owns the automated system only makes the difference between the wages the human was making and the cost of owning and maintaining the system.

But there isn't going to be one automation monopoly that develops the technology to be human level and then stops. Automation is going to advance to the point where it is a tiny faction of the cost of a human, so profit is going to decrease considerably. There is going to be some fairly massive deflation once automation starts taking over large segments of the population.

The only people who are going to make substantial amounts of money from automation will be the people who enter a market early and are competing against humans, and even they won't(can't, mathematically speaking) make enough to pay the human that the robot is replacing a basic income. It is just not mathematically possible.

Which is not to say I am against a UBI, but it has to be done sustainably through a sovereign wealth fund that starts paying out a small dividend that grows over time. A tax and redistribute system is not sustainable once automation technologies start eroding prices and profit margins(which they absolutely will once they are competing with other robots instead of humans).
 
If you get unemployed in the US, don't you get some welfare benefits like unemployment benefits, social security benefits, food stamps at least?

The basic income is supposed to guarantee just that, the basic income if you don't have a job.

It won't be like they're going to pay everyone that extra money out of nowhere and no one needs to work anymore. Or if it's paid to everyone it should be taxed accordingly. So basically it isn't about the trillion dollars it's going to cost the society more.

The society's productivity doesn't go down with the automation, it just needs less people to do manual jobs.
 

TheSeks

Blinded by the luminous glory that is David Bowie's physical manifestation.
It's an interesting concept, but where does the money come from? I mean, $10,000 a year for (numbers from my ass) ~200 million adults is another $2 trillion a year. Sure you could pretty much get rid of welfare and social security but does that cover it?

The Fed?

I mean money is a human concept. Trade/bartering isn't exactly an animal trait AFAIK. You essentially want to rework the entire system.
 

Drkirby

Corporate Apologist
I don't see us ever getting true Guaranteed Basic Income, but I could see models that require you to only work 5 to 10 years.
 

whitehawk

Banned
You shouldn't be a parasite either, living off the labour of others for your whole life. That basic income is paid for by others, high productivity people who use capital to enhance their productivity further. Saying it's ethical to do nothing and relax is wrong. You may not be contributing everything, but go do basic research or something.
You have to understand there is a difference between what is "just/right" in your mind, and what works/is logical.
 

Cocaloch

Member
Adam Smith, followed by (at least from a US-centric standpoint) the philosophical driving forces of US policy such as Thomas Jefferson, Benjamin Franklin, Thomas Paine, etc.. A large number of the major revolutionary figures in early US history were quite vocal that the economic system they were espousing was directly in conflict with the notion of inherited wealth as a largely unregulated institution.

None of those people founded Capitalism. In fact no one person founded Capitalism.
 

Foffy

Banned
can confirm

I am secretly an organism automated by the innate intelligence of nature itself. Of course this is my callsign. ;)

Now, to get to some posts that caught my eye here...

People are getting a few decades ahead of themselves with these basic income ideas.

More like decades too slow to really get on ball. If you even ignore the automation concerns which may make such a policy a necessity, this was a serious idea proposed in the Nixon administration, and was one of the last major topics MLK talked about regarding equality for all in America.

Basic income is a program to assure a floor for all, instead of this bullshit plank we've erected. The problem we face now is we can't use rugged individual as a justification of those who fall off the plank: technology makes human will and capabilities possibly insoluble when compared to the possibilities of the former. No free will character assassinations for the have nots, but we know the enemies of reason will not let it go too quickly, now. ;)

Of course, this speaks well to how bad America fucked up by justifying poverty and inequality. Just like with health care, we can't even start at ground zero: we're in the negatives because we've expanded the problem, not contracted it.

Basic income should have been a policy to handle poverty as it has been, not our fucking evac chopper from the automation invasion. This shows, in some sick sense, we've lived in a way to "justify" poverty to our ideas, and technology can be prone to simply killing the ideas or the societies that hold them above all else.

Regarding automation replacing truck drivers, companies aren't going to want to leave their products unattended. Someone will still need to be in the car. If anything automation will make their jobs easier and safer, and will act more as security guards instead.

Not to mention someone needs to be with the truck when it needs a refuel.

If the humans skillset is less desirable outside of just being a security guard in a vehicle, are their wages going to increase or stagnate? This is a problem with automation people also fail to realize: the delegation to the machine means the costs of labor for the human become diminished because their skillsets are less required in the overall activity. There is less the person is doing for the company, and thus less reason to really incentivize raises beyond more of a status quo model of doing things.

You're more likely to see truck drivers fall into the problem of Uber drivers, that being they become part of the gig economy culture, which means they'll be juggling more than one job and be a precariat. Precarious people will be ridden with anxiety and fear, for their lack of stability, and just enough of those people at the edge can be more problematic than the bungee cord over the seas of poverty they could be dangling over.

We already know poverty does negatively impact the brain and close off pathways. This leads into the whole "why do poor people do dumb things" finger waving game we make. How can we expect these same people to suddenly become Einstein and work for CERN or something? They'll need a lot more than willpower, for that's not the key to open such a door, despite our assumptions it's the key for all human prosperity.

Where are you getting the money from? Money tree?

Why would anybody do anything anymore if people don't have to worry about being out of the streets if they don't have a job?

If this is really your argument, and your own personal views as to why to work, you assume awfully little of people. Your impositions and assumptions of people are not even kindergarten tier. If you believe people only do things because of this awful imposition, you should really look at the sick culture that you're telling people they have to claw their way in and ask is any of this really worth it, if this nonsense is what we're going to beguile people with?

You are saying coercion, which in this case is stemmed with violence via assimilation (to be a have, or else you suffer), is really the best tool to use to motivate people. Are you a fan of dictators or religious bullshittery like Original Sin? Everyone is damned and has to prove their worth and be saved? That's more or less what you're implying, even if you don't see it that way.

This doesn't even get into the problem of people being a have not through no false free will of their own, mind you. Even your answer of "lol just learn something else" loops right back into this shitbrained thinking.

Fun fact: it is the goal of Capitalism that makes automation a danger. If your goal is to increase production and minimize costs, the target to aim is to replace people with technology. Those are games of whens, not ifs. Of course, I'm sure you'd be quick to parrot the miasma "a job destroyed is a job created" but save us the lack of critical inquiry if this really was your card to play.

They choose to work there and not invest on their studies, I am not paying more taxes so they can finance their own terrible decisions in life.

Speaking of the hand waving character assassination justifications to justify being passive to a problem I alluded to earlier...;)

Also, I have to ask this sincerely, and it may come off as offensive, but I have no other way to ask it...

Precisely my point, if I make a bad call is on me not on the rest of society, people can see automation coming from years ahead. People should be responsible of their own individual choices, even if that choice is to starve to death because of a lack of marketable skill.

What the fuck is this?

I can't even fathom a reasoned reply to you. Like, that level of "thought" breaks my mind.

Are you one of those who believes a job is man's objective purpose on Earth and ride that Protestant work ethic bus and all of its fallacies, just like Protestantism itself?


Or you develop a set of valuable skills that can't be automated by a computer, thus ensuring a future where your job can't be replaced by a processor.

This assumes a great deal of naivety, but I blame that on the human virus that is egocentric special snowflake syndrome.

Seeing as we're the same species that seems shocked about similarities between us and animals, of course one would also assume that machines are unlike humans, yet the problems of AI go directly into the capabilities of the mind and what people do as labor: information processing.

If there is nothing special about the human being in this regard - and there isn't - then this only becomes an issue of "what can't the technology do" which is only a present-day question. That's not future proofing a fucking thing, so what can you genuinely ensure?

Like, I'll out me as an example. I'm deeply interested in the illusion of self and what some call nondual awareness, to see that what we call "I" as a fixed agent is a genuine illusion of the mind. While you will only learn of this through neurology or aspects of contemplative monks, machines cannot clearly explain and showcase this as clearly as humans. But, is it to say they never can? I mean, we are talking about states of the mind that are its actual default systems, only obscured by habits and conditioning. What really stops technology and its systems from eventually being able to tackle the issue as well, even if in another way? Even something as unautomatable as that is something that we can only say is such in the present, and those making assured statements in the future about a surefire no are asserting too much of the present into that future.

There are plenty of people on welfare not looking for jobs, we're always going to have people on welfare, but let's not put everyone on welfare and see who feels like going to work everyday.

Back to you I see, Professor ;)

The problem of welfare as it is should be obvious, but I guess I should explain. Means-tested welfare incentivizes not striving, because the moment you do, you lose your floor. So if that's your argument, look at how the system punishes trying to get out of such assistance which would also condition the person to not rock the boat.

The problem you state of going to work everyday is another dogmatic problem we face, so I won't get too deep into it. I will say that a work of want, not need, leads to better productivity and happiness, as most trials of this program have shown through various countries. If one wouldn't really want to go to work after having their basic needs met, there are other issues to deal with such as "is the work genuinely worthless outside of money?" which for a great deal of people, it is.

And they are right to be averse to that. It's a waste of time and childish way of getting people to assimilate to conflicting models of living.

Employers pay because there's a need for workers, that's the leverage, to provide universal welfare only depresses the desire to work and drives up the cost of labor which in turn drives up the cost of products people pay for.

This is a common, albeit a...moranic claim constantly made.

The leverage here is that in a society that says everyone must have a job or else, people will have to settle on wages. The costs of labor stay down because you're expecting everyone to have to play ball. Similarly, this is the problem of the American health care system, for everyone now has to assimilate to a for-profit cartel system.

When you assure people a minimum floor, they have the ability to say no. Today, that no would leave you homeless and/or starving. First, looking at it from the present-day society, is this freedom? For a country that dickrides the notion of FREEDOM (I'm assuming you're American) it obviously fucking isn't. Second, by now having the floor of others taken care of, the power is in the worker, for the work that needs to be done will now have to offer a salary in the other way, which then values the needs the employer wants from a demand - if you want someone to get something done, you can't coerce them to settle if they have a floor and not a plank to push them off of - which also values the employee, alleviating the risk of simply being paid with what the employer can get away with.

Chris Rock had something to say on this topic, funnily enough. I'll share it.

I used to work at McDonald's making minimum wage. You know what that means when someone pays you minimum wage? You know what your boss was trying to say? "Hey if I could pay you less, I would, but it's against the law.”

Just do away with money


If they do bring in a basic income, what is the drive to work hard for a degree to fight for the few non-automated jobs? Just having more money than basic income? I suppose the optimistic outlook is that people have much more freedom to choose what work they do - more artists, or less people moving because of work.

Work becomes a want, not a need.

Consider for a moment how many things we can do that involve us working at something, but it's non-canon because this work doesn't pay.

To use myself as an example here, when I was involved with hospice care, I often volunteered to be a part of their bereavement services for their clients. This didn't pay me a single penny, but by being there, helping organize, and really being there for those who were grieving, there was a level of acceptance and presence that no paying job has come close to. But, this didn't give me money, so this isn't really REAL work, because real work must involve money. It would instead be classified as something supplemental, something optional, and something disposable, all of which I would take deep offense to, considering I was involved in helping people cope with dead family and friends.

This absurd duality is a major issue in the labor system as is. With a basic income, maybe more people engage in community efforts like this? A good deal of studies have shown this empowerment to want to help others after your basic needs have been met. Maslow's hierarchy of needs feeds right into this.

Good news, you'll never see that in your lifetime


Some argue we have a timetable of about 50 years before this pops up in a huge way. Many of us will still be alive.

I don't think there'll be a weird dystopian future where everyone is unemployed and no one can afford anything except for the 1% because of automation. That's crazy simply because automation typically benefits high volume industries the most. Everything would simply go out of business and nothing would be automated long before we had unemployment on such a massive scale.

To me the bigger issue is what to do with the impending ~15-20% unemployment that could still support all that automation with our current economic system. The 2008 economic crisis in many ways was a signal that nobody really "needs" at least 10% of the workforce.

It's going to be interesting going forward politically because if that many people are out of work, we're going to inevitably have all these conversations about UBI on a national level.

I also think this is a great point to make. When we're talking about automation, full or even half isn't really the issue: "enough" is an issue. Now, what is enough? One in four, which is Depression levels of displacement? One in three? Both are deep concerns, because you don't need to replace industries in full to tally up to that number; just take a bit from here and there, and it eventually can add up.

I think the government needs to place laws and restrictions on AI use with certain jobs.

They couldn't do much for replacing factory or call center jobs, because the those jobs would just go to countries where the laws don't exist.

You can't outsource a bus driver or a cashier. It's kind of harsh, but it will be a disaster if those two industries go fully automated.

Probably not that simple, but neither is paying everyone a base salary.

Do you see how your aversion to technology is a problem, for it demands the sustainability of the status quo, despite the fact technology may be faster, cheaper, and better than the person?

You are essentially saying a person must be the epicenter to labor, and we must fight any change to this. Please, inquire into hanging onto this idea, for this idea is in fact the entire reason automation is the problem it is.



To conclude with my own words and not driveby replies, think about how fucking stupid we are as a society to make automation even be possible to be a threat and concern. We have fucked up so many things as a species, but the capability of replacing humans from working in this or that is somehow bad? We can say from a macro scale it isn't, but why is that not the case on the micro scale? Because those without jobs, in this culture, actively suffer, and there's the whole problem right there.

It's not the loss of jobs that is the root here. It's the imposition that jobs must be done by humans above all else, for if there is no job for you as a human, somehow, some way, this creates a lack of something, even if you're replaced by a machine, system, or service that simply does the task cheaper and better. Technology is prone to make a lot of human skills increasingly obsolescent, which only highlights the problems of our warped, limped-dick social paradigm of life, living, and worthiness within it.

The sooner we accept we live only by ideas, and these ideas are unfathomably flawed, will we move on to revise and change. We're in trouble in this sense, because many of us confuse these systems of ideas with the world itself, as if this is the objective order of the cosmos, unchanging and final. This is a load of donkey dick thinking.
 

theecakee

Member
Do you see how your aversion to technology is a problem, for it demands the sustainability of the status quo, despite the fact technology may be faster, cheaper, and better than the person?

You are essentially saying a person must be the epicenter to labor, and we must fight any change to this. Please, inquire into hanging onto this idea, for this idea is in fact the entire reason automation is the problem it is.



To conclude with my own words and not driveby replies, think about how fucking stupid we are as a society to make automation even be possible to be a threat and concern. We have fucked up so many things as a species, but the capability of replacing humans from working in this or that is somehow bad? We can say from a macro scale it isn't, but why is that not the case on the micro scale? Because those without jobs, in this culture, actively suffer, and there's the whole problem right there.

It's not the loss of jobs that is the root here. It's the imposition that jobs must be done by humans above all else, for if there is no job for you as a human, somehow, some way, this creates a lack of something, even if you're replaced by a machine, system, or service that simply does the task cheaper and better. Technology is prone to make a lot of human skills increasingly obsolescent, which only highlights the problems of our warped, limped-dick social paradigm of life, living, and worthiness within it.

The sooner we accept we live only by ideas, and these ideas are unfathomably flawed, will we move on to revise and change. We're in trouble in this sense, because many of us confuse these systems of ideas with the world itself, as if this is the objective order of the cosmos, unchanging and final. This is a load of donkey dick thinking.

I see what you're saying, how the end goal is we all don't do any work and robots do everything. However that's not an overnight thing that will happen, it will take years/decades/centuries of advancement. Like if we could just flip a switch and every job is now AI that would be great. But it will take years for that to happen, and a huge middle limbo period of some jobs automated and some jobs still being around and money still being a thing. Like we're not talking about switching from horses to cars, we're talking about peoples lives here. It may be better in the long term to just automate low class jobs now, but right now it would be a disaster.

We don't want to cause an economic meltdown, far worst than the great depression, in the mean time before we can just make robots do everything.
 
I like this idea because it subjugates the oppressors: the elite executive class that stole all the middle and working classes' money over the last 4 decades.
 

Slime

Banned
Just as it's going to take several major coastal areas being submerged before conservatives let us do anything about climate change, it'll probably take tent cities becoming mass graves in some Depression-tier mass poverty period before they ever let something like basic income through.

If you're homeless because of automation, build your own robots! Entrepreneurs are the lifeblood of the country! Bootstraps!
 

Foffy

Banned
I see what you're saying, how the end goal is we all don't do any work and robots do everything. However that's not an overnight thing that will happen, it will take years/decades/centuries of advancement. Like if we could just flip a switch and every job is now AI that would be great. But it will take years for that to happen, and a huge middle limbo period of some jobs automated and some jobs still being around and money still being a thing. Like we're not talking about switching from horses to cars, we're talking about peoples lives here. It may be better in the long term to just automate low class jobs now, but right now it would be a disaster.

We don't want to cause an economic meltdown, far worst than the great depression, in the mean time before we can just make robots do everything.

This is why as we're more prone to automate because the nature of Capitalism prospers from it, we do need to make countermeasures to handle this. As you've said, peoples lives are on the line.

And there are ways to inch towards a basic income. You start with a Negative Income Tax, or an expansion of the Earned Income Tax Credit. The former would do more than the latter, but the latter is something Hillary Clinton is considered as a starting action to this particular issue. Her problem is she rejects the notion of a basic income because of the meme that by having it, you will never work or do anything in society every again, so she's not far off from other GAF members.

I guess this is one of the reasons this site is one of the top referrals for her. ;)

Remember, I am not saying all of it can or will go to machines. I simply take the present stance that it's awfully clear a lot will, and for that alone we have fuck and all in each of our hands in regards to a genuine response to alleviate conflict and suffering. Removing the plank people stand upon for a floor is the best solution, and we have to get our way there. But the first way in getting there is admitting what we have fucking sucks, doesn't look like it can stand well to this problem, and thus need to reassess the situation. Work with what we have and build a platform to transition to, as Obama described the situation when asked about this policy, and he's dead right. Thanks, Obama.

This is one of the reasons I have very seldomly posted about specific policies on how to fund a basic income, despite a few users using the Foffy signal to call me. I care more about getting people to sit at the table so we can begin talking about the potentiality of this reality. Better to come up with solutions when we admit there's a problem, no? We're not at that phase yet, and that's what I find frightening.
 

Unbounded

Member
I've had professors/teachers help shape how I think about the world, be mentor-like figures to me, and help give me a unique perspective on topics. I can't see an AI doing that, at least any time soon. Hell, I took a Modern China class with a woman who came from a humble upbringing in China and lived there for 40 years. The perspective she was able to give was amazing.

Hell, I wasn't even going that deep into it.

I was just thinking that it'd be near-impossible for an AI to actually manage a classroom of 25+ students to ensure that they actually effectively learn.
 

Doikor

Member
Hell, I wasn't even going that deep into it.

I was just thinking that it'd be near-impossible for an AI to actually manage a classroom of 25+ students to ensure that they actually effectively learn.

Why would you have a classroom if an AI was teaching them? Every student would have his own instance of the AI teaching each student individually.
 

EmSeta

Member
I'm not an economist, so I'm sorta confused by the concept. My first fear would be - wouldn't real estate prices quickly be driven up, with higher mortgages and rents eating up most of the new foundational wages? Thus putting a lot of this money in the pockets of banks and landlords?

I'd really appreciate if some clever person could explain this to me :)

Anyone wants to take a stab at this? I feel like I'm missing something in my reasoning... or?
 
Why would you have a classroom if an AI was teaching them? Every student would have his own instance of the AI teaching each student individually.

Maybe at home, kids still need the social interaction that a school provides so that they can develop with peers. Classes need to be of multiple children so that they can learn from each other. If AIs are created they need to be able to manage an optimal sized classroom and able to respon to the interactions of the children to her and between each other.

You dont go to school just to learn stuff, at least not ideally.
 
So many uninformed opinions in this thread I don't know were to begin. Automation will take a shitton of jobs over the next 30 years and it will also create some. Basic income will be needed in the future or a big pivot from the system we have today. Alot of underestimates I'm reading.

Nothing about the future is certain, or should be communicated as any kind of absolute certainty. We also can only make educated guesses on what the future could be like due to automation. There's proactivity, and then there's pushing through legislation that a large portion of the population doesn't want, nor the economy yet need, because of speculation and a liberal wishlist. If something like this was passed through now, all it would spark is further backlash from the portion of the population who are conservative in this area.
 
Anyone wants to take a stab at this? I feel like I'm missing something in my reasoning... or?

Im not an economist either but since you dont have to work anymore, it means you dont have to be tied to a single place anymore.

You can go live somewhere where rent is cheap.

I think thats the gist of it?
 

Unbounded

Member
Why would you have a classroom if an AI was teaching them? Every student would have his own instance of the AI teaching each student individually.

So you're telling me this a system completely based on each and every individual self-motivating themselves to complete their education?

Maybe at home, kids still need the social interaction that a school provides so that they can develop with peers. Classes need to be of multiple children so that they can learn from each other. If AIs are created they need to be able to manage an optimal sized classroom and able to respon to the interactions of the children to her and between each other.

You dont go to school just to learn stuff, at least not ideally.

There's also this.
 

M.D

Member
The same place that gave Israel 38 billion dollars this year alone, and had been giving them 4 billion a year.

Taxes. Or the 10 billion dollars for failed missile defense programs. Or any % of government waste. Could do this a billion times over.

People just don't want to help others, but are fine letting the gov bleed money for them.

You know for the amount of times I've seen you complain about the aid given to Israel, it's surprising you could be so ignorant of the facts.
 
Nothing about the future is certain, or should be communicated as any kind of absolute certainty. We also can only make educated guesses on what the future could be like due to automation. There's proactivity, and then there's pushing through legislation that a large portion of the population doesn't want, nor the economy yet need, because of speculation and a liberal wishlist. If something like this was passed through now, all it would spark is further backlash from the portion of the population who are conservative in this area.

This pisses me off because as Slime says:

Just as it's going to take several major coastal areas being submerged before conservatives let us do anything about climate change, it'll probably take tent cities becoming mass graves in some Depression-tier mass poverty period before they ever let something like basic income through.

If you're homeless because of automation, build your own robots! Entrepreneurs are the lifeblood of the country! Bootstraps!
 
People also need to remember that a basic income will be phased in over a number of years, giving that money time to bolster the economy. While it's being phased in, some welfare programs will be phased out.
 

Walshicus

Member
The whole problem that I'm thinking is that who is going to pay for universal income if nobody has a job.
Money is just a vehicle for the transfer of Output. As more Output comes from machines and less from Humans, it's just a matter of effective distribution.
 
The question is not whether or not automation is going to get rid of a bunch of jobs, because it is. Lots and lots of them. But the question is, can we expand the service and creative industry fast enough to make up for that loss, and for how long could that work?

I mean, just going back to a system where wealthy people have lots of man-servant type employees would provide a a way to deal with that. What if the middle class just had a footman or chamber maid for everyone in the household?

Or dog-groomers, personal trainers, personal chefs, assistants, etc. Something like that could work within this economic system. To a point.

It'd be a shitty ass system, but it'd work, until the workers revolted. If the robots don't kill us before that.
 

Timeaisis

Member
It's an interesting concept, but where does the money come from? I mean, $10,000 a year for (numbers from my ass) ~200 million adults is another $2 trillion a year. Sure you could pretty much get rid of welfare and social security but does that cover it?

If you cut military spending and welfare you could get pretty close. Reforms on social security and you come even closer.
 

platakul

Banned
The question is not whether or not automation is going to get rid of a bunch of jobs, because it is. Lots and lots of them. But the question is, can we expand the service and creative industry fast enough to make up for that loss, and for how long could that work?

I mean, just going back to a system where wealthy people have lots of man-servant type employees would provide a a way to deal with that. What if the middle class just had a footman or chamber maid for everyone in the household?

Or dog-groomers, personal trainers, personal chefs, assistants, etc. Something like that could work within this economic system. To a point.

It'd be a shitty ass system, but it'd work, until the workers revolted. If the robots don't kill us before that.
This is not preferable to simply abolishing work as a necessity to life
 

ameleco

Member
I tend to think these articles massively overstate how many jobs will be lost to automation. How are they going to automate a lawyer or a doctor?
I think you need to see this as do others in this thread:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU
Sorry if its been linked already! Anyways, lawyers and doctors are both really susceptible to automation. In fact, I feel like almost everything is besides maybe research (though, even that could easily be replaced considering what I did as a grad student was very tedious) and automation engineers.
 

darkace

Banned
That CGP Grey video is awful and has been refuted by actual economists multiple times. It's as bad as Jared Diamond books when looking at history. It's pop science that totally misses the science part of the equation.
 

Foffy

Banned
That CGP Grey video is awful and has been refuted by actual economists multiple times. It's as bad as Jared Diamond books when looking at history. It's pop science that totally misses the science part of the equation.

Okay, let us ignore that video for now.

Why have people at the World Economic Forum, International Monetary Fund, and the White House all admit that there still is an increasingly likely scenario of people losing all of their prospects via automation, and all three have said as much in just this past year?

Let's just consider the White House for now, because they went into specifics I remember at the moment. According to their findings in a February report, more than 80% of jobs making less than $20 are in the "very high" arena of getting automated. This is before even considering the raise of a minimum wage, by the way. Their solution was education, and we shouldn't have to say what the problem is there, especially for Americans. And some would argue, even to the White House, that education is prone to become a net-negative solution.

What do we do here, in this possibly likely scenario?
 
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