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Legend of Zelda Mafia |OT| A Lynch to the Past

nin1000

Banned
I actually find nin's vote on cabot earlier today weirdly townie? Like it followed nin logic, even if I disagree.



But then he unvotes without comment and hasn't said much of substance since. So nin, why did you unvote and does the rest of your analysis of the votes still stand?

I unvoted because Cabot made a fair point.
In my "analysis" i said that AB could have made an honest mistake where a cabot could not. In the end it still will come down to either AB/Cabot or Natiko.

They all have given their reasoning on why they reacted that way in the end, but the manner of the fact is. Those actions still give me a bad feeling.

Will put down my vote probably later this day ( no late, 10 minute before deadline, vote for me this time )
 

cabot

Member
Could I be wrong? Sure, but that would confirm CCS is town and made all of these decisions and posts that are incredibly anti-town. It hurts my soul to operate on that logic.

Awww, GAFIA puberty will hit you like a train wreck.

CCS primarily, big surprise i know.

Sophia is kinda giving me bad vibes, iv played with her in a whole bunch of games, and this one feels offputtingly differant.

also Absolut and Magnumboy feel off, kinda like non-presences, however that could likely be down to me just not paying much attention to them earlier, will likely go back through the thread to get a better read of them.

I am leaning scum on Sophia currently, though I feel stronger with melon and would prefer she goes first, the rest of this list seems safe. Magnum is not present, AB I sort of town read, though he did dwell a bit on item mechanics which really wasn't very useful to us, mechanic chat is a nice thing for scum to be engaged in.

Truth of the matter is Stan's timezone really borks me for reading him, he always misses day end and that usually is quite crucial in determining alignment. Based on what I can go on though, it's not looking good, though I wouldn't say it's coming off as scum, more of a null.
 

cabot

Member
I wouldn't describe it as a policy lynch, unless you put partial info lynches under that category for some reason. I guess I disagree in that it's confirming old info, I think it's a high enough possibility that CCS is scum that his 'town' flip is up on the air to me. If you don't think CCS could be scum I agree the good does not out weigh the bad. But what exactly in his play is helping you discern between unhelpful town and scum so as to feel so strongly that it's old info that CCS is town?

This is my position, and it's because I just feel I have a grasp of how CCS plays. I wouldn't say scum CCS wouldn't be making silly mistakes and be anti-town, but your case hinges a lot on the idea that scum CCS has had very little to no communication with his team mates. I just don't see CCS as the kind of person that goes lone wolf when he has a proper team.

Them's my feels and you must accept.
 

cabot

Member
#412 is interesting. Melonrabbit thought acohrs was talking about her when he was talking about Magnum. I'm not drawing any clear conclusion, but it seems odd to misinterpret your mate's post like that. It doesn't look W/W.
Not sure about you guys, but I know I myself struggle to read posts by mates, it feels redundant.

Eh, there's not much here to base on, that's your experience. My experience? Lover (Splinter for those not in the know) and I's exchanges in the main Love Boat thread were almost entirely genuine, and our private chat was used to maybe throw some thoughts about others that we didn't want to share publically.


It's not clear enough to read it as alignment indicative to me.
 

CCS

Banned
Sorry, been super busy at work so far today. Just commenting to say that I am reading the thread as much as I can and will post when I have time.
 
Awww, GAFIA puberty will hit you like a train wreck.



I am leaning scum on Sophia currently, though I feel stronger with melon and would prefer she goes first, the rest of this list seems safe. Magnum is not present, AB I sort of town read, though he did dwell a bit on item mechanics which really wasn't very useful to us, mechanic chat is a nice thing for scum to be engaged in.

Truth of the matter is Stan's timezone really borks me for reading him, he always misses day end and that usually is quite crucial in determining alignment. Based on what I can go on though, it's not looking good, though I wouldn't say it's coming off as scum, more of a null.

This tunneling isn't going to pay off, Doctor. I've been telling you the truth. I'm town.
 

cabot

Member
I have been.

Splinter asked if I had been scum reading you reading you. I have been. I am. Not as strongly as before. I feel a bit better today sans all this tunneling nonsense that isn't beneficial to town.

linguistics? Alright.

Yes. I'm laughing at you.

with you?

I almost didnt track this down because I'm so annoyed right now but here is the latest detailed post about you.

Morning.

I've not read the posts overnight yet, I just want to bring up a couple of points while they are fresh in my head

A) melonrabbit

So I scumread melon yesterday, along with a few others. There are however those who townread her as well (Sorian and Sophia I remember specifically). We now know Sorian is town, so I can trust his read.

Things I don't like

1) The survey she started with, could've been an inventive way she thought would encourage activity, but she never really brought it round to a game-relevant use case. She did it, some people answered then it was sort of forgotten about.
2) She gut read me as scum, but along with Sophia, she ruled out lynching me yesterday completely. Why even bring me up as a scum candidate when you have no intention of targeting me on the day phase? Seems like you're trying to build a case against me out of nothing else than being consistent over a period of time.

3) The acohrs read:



OK, so as a scum I could see myself making a read like this with the fact that acohrs was confirmed scum. You know he's floundering and not doing so well, getting decent heat from others, so I would feel obliged to exclude him from a town section in my read list. I would also be hesitant to put him in a scum read, though I think where this is where I would differ. I'd stick him at the bottom of a scum list with not much explanation. She does the next best thing which is throw appropriate shade, even mentioning a vote on him being possible.

Describing acohrs as neutral is quite interesting because frankly I don't see much logic there as to why. Melon claims she thinks this because he's attracting votes, so I guess she believes he could be a Tanner. So as scum, I see it as a way to throw shade on a team mate without really going all in on him, as neutral...I'm not sure? maybe if you needed acohrs specifically, you'd do something like this or maybe try to divert from you being the genuine neutral article. As town, I really don't think there was much there from acohrs that gave a neutral alignment read.

The other thing about this read is I get the vibe that melon doesn't want to vote him. She mentions it, sure, but it seems just obligatory cause he's getting heat elsewhere and she doesn't want to appear out of the loop.

Last point: She votes CCS for thoughts, but that vote doesn't change before the day ends.

4) The notes. I've covered this but I didn't really see the point apart from trying to show the game how investigative you were being, which is something you'd like to show as scum, it's less important if you're playing Town right.

fun things while searching through posts:



I did chuckle at this. She don't care but cares enough to raise it!


Currently melon is my top scum.

You can disagree with it, call it a bad argument but you can't say I've barely strung one together.
 
linguistics? Alright.



I almost didnt track this down because I'm so annoyed right now but here is the latest detailed post about you.



You can disagree with it, call it a bad argument but you can't say I've barely strung one together.

It was Splinter's question.

Fine. I'll say it is a bad argument. Have to go to work now.
 

Kawl_USC

Member
We will eventually have our flurry of posts overlap and clot out the sun bud.

Also you know exactly how I feel about your feelings and you just respect how I feel about your feels damnit.

I'll thought you said you thought ccs was like 20% chance to be scum? Am I remembering that incorrectly?
 

cabot

Member
With melon and Sophia being your top scum reads, do you see any particular interactions that strike you as w/w between them?

they both shared a gut scum (read:unreasoned) read on me, and they both came around as reading each other as town when I see no strong reason to read either as town.

I had CCS as 20% because I obviously can be wrong. It has happened.
 

Kawl_USC

Member
they both shared a gut scum (read:unreasoned) read on me, and they both came around as reading each other as town when I see no strong reason to read either as town.

I had CCS as 20% because I obviously can be wrong. It has happened.

The bottom doesn't really line up with your response to my post above though. Basically answering the same question asked a different way with different answers.
 

cabot

Member
The bottom doesn't really line up with your response to my post above though. Basically answering the same question asked a different way with different answers.

The question was did I say I had him at 20% scum am I remembering that incorrectly?


I answered with saying i did indeed say that and a reason why I said it.
 

Kawl_USC

Member
The question was did I say I had him at 20% scum am I remembering that incorrectly?


I answered with saying i did indeed say that and a reason why I said it.

And above you responded to a statement saying, "unless you do not think ccs could be scum...."

By saying yea I don't think he could be scum. Well except maybe 20% he could be scum. (Which as someone pointed out is just the percentage of rolling scum in the first place...) it doesn't really track is what I'm saying.
 

Ty4on

Member
Eh, there's not much here to base on, that's your experience. My experience? Lover (Splinter for those not in the know) and I's exchanges in the main Love Boat thread were almost entirely genuine, and our private chat was used to maybe throw some thoughts about others that we didn't want to share publically.


It's not clear enough to read it as alignment indicative to me.
Not just the chat. I imagine a scum player will be more relaxed when they see a scumread by a mate. They know it's not much of a threat. Missing who the post referred to makes it look like the post scared her.
 

cabot

Member
No I'm saying I don't think he is scum, but I'm not gonna say there's zero chance of him being scum, because that implies I have more information about CCS' alignment.

I'm not foolish enough to believe that my read is absolutely correct. I'm playing from how I see CCS in this game and in a previous game, that's what I should be doing.
 

Kawl_USC

Member
No I'm saying I don't think he is scum, but I'm not gonna say there's zero chance of him being scum, because that implies I have more information about CCS' alignment.

I'm not foolish enough to believe that my read is absolutely correct. I'm playing from how I see CCS in this game and in a previous game, that's what I should be doing.
Then yea we are back at the point where I disagree with your original post you quoted. I think the good far outweighs the bad for lynching ccs then. Hell I'd probably take lynching ccs if I thought he was 50% as likely to be scum as the most scummiest person thanks to all the additional benefits lynching him gives. But I know that's a statement more will balk at. And I also find ccs to be as scummy or more than everyone else so it's a moo point I guess.
 

cabot

Member
Then yea we are back at the point where I disagree with your original post you quoted. I think the good far outweighs the bad for lynching ccs then. Hell I'd probably take lynching ccs if I thought he was 50% as likely to be scum as the most scummiest person thanks to all the additional benefits lynching him gives. But I know that's a statement more will balk at. And I also find ccs to be as scummy or more than everyone else so it's a moo point I guess.

Well yes, to you thats true, but the quote I posted comes at it from my point of view:

If you don't think CCS could be scum I agree the good does not out weigh the bad. But what exactly in his play is helping you discern between unhelpful town and scum so as to feel so strongly that it's old info that CCS is town?

I'm on this side of the argument and you say you agree that his lynch is more bad than good from my perspective.


So basically, I'm pretty confused why this is a discussion. You're on one side, I'm on the other. We're both set in our decision, so it's really up to the rest of the game to decide CCS fate.


Good talk... I think.
 

CCS

Banned
I like the idea of a moo point. It makes it sound like we're discussing the economics of dairy farming :p

I don't think I'm going to change my vote from Stan, pretty happy with it being there.
 

Kawl_USC

Member
Because 20% falls into the range of "I believe there are universes where ccs is scum"

So you misunderstand what I'm saying in that second quote. Which is unless you can say with significant confidence that ccs is town, he is the correct lynch. You say you feel his town but can't say so with complete confidence. So I still think he fits into the best lynch for your world view. I disagree with the conclusion you've arrived from the starting assumptions you've shared with me, which I find unsettling generally.
 

CzarTim

Member
Not just the chat. I imagine a scum player will be more relaxed when they see a scumread by a mate. They know it's not much of a threat. Missing who the post referred to makes it look like the post scared her.
I think this is a pretty good point, actually.
 

cabot

Member
Because 20% falls into the range of "I believe there are universes where ccs is scum"

So you misunderstand what I'm saying in that second quote. Which is unless you can say with significant confidence that ccs is town, he is the correct lynch. You say you feel his town but can't say so with complete confidence. So I still think he fits into the best lynch for your world view. I disagree with the conclusion you've arrived from the starting assumptions you've shared with me, which I find unsettling generally.

80% isn't significant confidence?
 

CCS

Banned
On the other hand, I've been fairly consistently scum reading melon too. I know cab and others have been discussing scum melon theory, does anyone want to discuss melon v stan as more likely scum with me?
 

Kawl_USC

Member
80% isn't significant confidence?
Not when baseline is 20% for scum. The real point of that statement was a bit loaded, uncertainty is a central part of mafia. I don't think it's possible or reasonable to get so confident in town ccs that he is a bad lynch.

Unless your have a green check on him as cop. In which case a) don't be checking scummy fucks like that, b) sorry I'm sure this is frustrating to read from me.
 

cabot

Member
Not when baseline is 20% for scum. The real point of that statement was a bit loaded, uncertainty is a central part of mafia. I don't think it's possible or reasonable to get so confident in town ccs that he is a bad lynch.

Unless your have a green check on him as cop. In which case a) don't be checking scummy fucks like that, b) sorry I'm sure this is frustrating to read from me.

I explained pretty clearly to Splinter that the 20% isnt based on actual probabilities of the game rolls, its just a value I threw that gives an idea of how i read CCS (ie 80% certain hes town)

Like in Pop people actually fell for CCS saying he 100% trusted Sawneeks, thinking he cleared her. I intentionally avoided such a repeat of that situation.
 

Kawl_USC

Member
I think this is a pretty good point, actually.
I could read this a couple of ways: genuine misread as town and being flustered. At this point had people already jumped on melon for posting notes? Genuine misread as scum and frustrated. Perhaps they had discussed in scum chat about the survey and how it could provide some good cover for melon so she doesn't appreciate acohrs trashing it? Or a manufactured scum mate interaction. I find the last least believable. Think the first maybe slightly more likely than the second, but the difference isn't higher enough to shift my read on her.
 

Kawl_USC

Member
I explained pretty clearly to Splinter that the 20% isnt based on actual probabilities of the game rolls, its just a value I threw that gives an idea of how i read CCS (ie 80% certain hes town)

Like in Pop people actually fell for CCS saying he 100% trusted Sawneeks, thinking he cleared her. I intentionally avoided such a repeat of that situation.

And again my point is, no clear, not total confidence still a Gooder lynch than a badder lynch.
 
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