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Legend of Zelda Mafia |OT| A Lynch to the Past

Terrabyte20xx

Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
Man, I am really out of practice, I skimmed through a couple of pages and thought to myself 'huh, only so many players are talking' then looked at the player list just to find " of course that's the case, they're the only ones in the game.


On a side note, Splinter and CCS: why do you guys both have to have a white background avatar? I keep skimming and thinking that one of you is talking twice as much as everyone else.


Still catching up but I will say that I currently lean town on Sophia, she doesn't seem to be portraying any of the scum traits that I'm used to seeing from her.
 

CzarTim

Member
I wouldn't describe it as a policy lynch, unless you put partial info lynches under that category for some reason. I guess I disagree in that it's confirming old info, I think it's a high enough possibility that CCS is scum that his 'town' flip is up on the air to me. If you don't think CCS could be scum I agree the good does not out weigh the bad. But what exactly in his play is helping you discern between unhelpful town and scum so as to feel so strongly that it's old info that CCS is town?

By old info, I mean if CCS flips town we won't really learn much from today's vote. Hard to fault anyone for voting someone who has been anti-town. So really we'd been solidifying day one's events rather than adding to them. If he is scum, well that's a different story.

As for what makes me think he's not scum (neutrals are hard to read): the early claim, the fact that aco seemed to be attempting to copy him rather than the other way around, the fact that aco voted for ccs and not the other way around. I don't know, I don't like having to defend someone who has done such a piss poor job defending himself, especially because I can't be sure. But it does feel like you've created an argument that's hard to counter. He's either not town or anti-town, so either way everyone who votes for him gets a pass.
 

Kyanrute

Member
Stan into acohrs:

Acohrs? Acorhs? Achtol- dog person is playing the *im new at this and you all sound like crazy people so take pity on me card* (yes, some of that is me projecting) and to be honest i think im buying it, for now at least. most thanks to them continuing to be somewhat outspoken in the face of their mistakes, rather than hiding away.

Im finding myself turning around on Acohrs, the many people recounting his apparently strong play in his only previous game has me doubting my initial belief of the whole Inexperience excuse. That and his big accusation against sorian just read like complete bull, not feeling full scum vibes just yet, but it is certainly heading in that direction.

seems like the most suspicion/votes at this point are pointing toward Achors and Ty4on?

with the 'inexperienced' defense kinda shattered, i definitely dont like Achors play very much, only im stuck with the constant thought that it feels way to bad to be scum, like, the big push against sorian earlier was just impotent, seemingly desperate, instincts a yelling at me that it would be a just terrible play for a scum to make.
yeah, shit, 360 time, iv convinced myself i dont think Achors is scum.

In that last post, Stan votes for CCS and goes to zzz. He never mentions CCS before that post. Stan justifies the vote not by telling how he feels about CCS, but by explaining how he does not see acohrs as scum. The vote comes well before anybody has a clear lead in the votes - after his vote two people have two votes on them and seven have a single one.

Right now I feel Stan is scum. Logically, the vote comes out of the blue. He never justifies why CCS was the vote to go for out of the other 18 non-acohrs+Stan targets. He never mentions CCS. Why the vote then? Because scum team concluded that acohrs could very well become a rope extension and scummies decided that CCS was the likeliest alternative for the job.
 
So I've got two pages of handwritten notes for page 12 of this thread.

Post: Y/N?

lol jk suckas

:(

Are you guys going to mock me forever about this? At least the Doctor teasing it somewhat fun for me.

Aggressive Nin? Huh. Don't like this change. And would like to hear more from Stanley.
 

CCS

Banned
Stan into acohrs:







In that last post, Stan votes for CCS and goes to zzz. He never mentions CCS before that post. Stan justifies the vote not by telling how he feels about CCS, but by explaining how he does not see acohrs as scum. The vote comes well before anybody has a clear lead in the votes - after his vote two people have two votes on them and seven have a single one.

Right now I feel Stan is scum. Logically, the vote comes out of the blue. He never justifies why CCS was the vote to go for out of the other 18 non-acohrs+Stan targets. He never mentions CCS. Why the vote then? Because scum team concluded that acohrs could very well become a rope extension and scummies decided that CCS was the likeliest alternative for the job.

This is very helpful, especially given my existing scum read of him.

VOTE: Stanleypalmtree
 
This is very helpful, especially given my existing scum read of him.

VOTE: Stanleypalmtree

Some advice? Stop sheeping everyone's opinions. You've spent the last two day flip-flopping. A lot of the players are very advanced and can be persuasive in their reasoning whether their are lying or not. If you want people to think you are town, try fleshing out your reads with your own words, it comes across as more sincere.

For instance:

UNVOTE

I don't have a full read list, a few players who I haven't heard from or I'm just not sure on. However:

Town: Cab, Kyan, Natiko

Lean town: Nin, Kawl,

Lean scum: Sophia, Stan,

No strong scum reads.

Oh bother, wasn't finished:

Lean town: Splinter, Absolut, Ty

Lean scum: melon

This is an okay start but says very little. I would like it if you could go into detail, especially if you are going to be absence tomorrow.
 

Natiko

Banned
I didn't see anything else worth responding to. I currently lean scum on CCS, Ynnek7, and one of melon/Bronx/Stanley as I said before. I know there's generally a good chance of one scum being on the scum lynch vote, but in this instance I just don't see anyone on it that jumps out to me. I still contend CCS was the intended scum death and scum are on that vote.
 

Kawl_USC

Member
I didn't see anything else worth responding to. I currently lean scum on CCS, Ynnek7, and one of melon/Bronx/Stanley as I said before. I know there's generally a good chance of one scum being on the scum lynch vote, but in this instance I just don't see anyone on it that jumps out to me. I still contend CCS was the intended scum death and scum are on that vote.

have any particularly town read on anyone?
 
On mobile, will try to reread later this evening or tomorrow A.M. My father is in town for the weekend so my sisters are coming up as well. Will do my best to be around though.
 

Kawl_USC

Member
By old info, I mean if CCS flips town we won't really learn much from today's vote. Hard to fault anyone for voting someone who has been anti-town. So really we'd been solidifying day one's events rather than adding to them. If he is scum, well that's a different story.

As for what makes me think he's not scum (neutrals are hard to read): the early claim, the fact that aco seemed to be attempting to copy him rather than the other way around, the fact that aco voted for ccs and not the other way around. I don't know, I don't like having to defend someone who has done such a piss poor job defending himself, especially because I can't be sure. But it does feel like you've created an argument that's hard to counter. He's either not town or anti-town, so either way everyone who votes for him gets a pass.

Do you mean this as a downside? I get that you mean it that we won't get any meaningful voting pattern information from a CCS lynch at this point? I guess my bad for having a good argument for it either way?
 

CzarTim

Member
Do you mean this as a downside? I get that you mean it that we won't get any meaningful voting pattern information from a CCS lynch at this point? I guess my bad for having a good argument for it either way?
It limits discussion by you providing an out for people regardless of the flip. I would have rathered you simply made a case that he's scum to gauge reactions. Game theory, I know, just pointing it out.
 

Kawl_USC

Member
It limits discussion by you providing an out for people regardless of the flip. I would have rathered you simply made a case that he's scum to gauge reactions. Game theory, I know, just pointing it out.

1. I'd argue thats the fault of poor town play which becomes indistinguishable from scum, not my fault for making the argument. 2. i'd rather make the most convincing argument I can make sorry. not going to hamstring my own argument to see who leaps at a weaker one when there's a stronger one that makes sense to me.
 

Natiko

Banned
So cabot is the only one from the play? The others are completely or mostly based on just voting acohrs yesterday?
No, Ty and Tim were town reads yesterday prior to the end votes. Nin and Kyan were both flipped from slight scum to more town in my mind based on the voting. Nin would be my weakest town read of the batch. Keep in mind that my views include my theory that CCS is scum and was the one meant to be lynched.
 

Ty4on

Member
What was up with this post Ty?

No, Ty and Tim were town reads yesterday prior to the end votes. Nin and Kyan were both flipped from slight scum to more town in my mind based on the voting. Nin would be my weakest town read of the batch. Keep in mind that my views include my theory that CCS is scum and was the one meant to be lynched.

How did the scum team end up in a situation like that? That's something any team would try to avoid.
 

Ty4on

Member
Didn't notice I had that old quote.

To answer Kawl I knew I had made a kinda sketchy vote (argued for lynching neither then last minute voted for one) and wanted to hear from those unvoting.
 

Natiko

Banned
How did the scum team end up in a situation like that? That's something any team would try to avoid.
I don't think CCS was ever meant to claim. I think his scum play is just as bad for his team as his town play (no offense). I think their ultimate hope was for Sophia to be lynched. That's why CCS and acohrs move votes in such a way to cause a two way tie between CCS and Sophia. If the Sophia lynch gains traction then great, but if not then CCS is served up on a platter and scum get to go "look we voted for CCS and he flipped scum, don't mind us". CCS and acohrs get so entangled on purpose to try and clear acohrs once CCS flips scum (just look at all the arguments today about how they both aren't likely to be scum). When acohrs gets backed into a corner he even makes the same move CCS did with Sophia - forces a tie and calls it out. It just rings too weird for me for CCS to be town given everything.

If CCS is scum and was the intended death acohrs gets some breathing room, Bronx/melon/Stanley/ynnek7 look better all of a sudden for being "right" about CCS over acohrs. I mean if you're the scum team in that situation doesn't it make sense to make it look crazy for them to both be scum, force a two way race between CCS and Sophia, and to hope for the best? On that team, I imagine I would push to sacrifice CCS due to his claim making him look suspicious.

Could I be wrong? Sure, but that would confirm CCS is town and made all of these decisions and posts that are incredibly anti-town. It hurts my soul to operate on that logic.
 
No, Ty and Tim were town reads yesterday prior to the end votes. Nin and Kyan were both flipped from slight scum to more town in my mind based on the voting. Nin would be my weakest town read of the batch. Keep in mind that my views include my theory that CCS is scum and was the one meant to be lynched.

I mean suppose so? Losing their ninja D1 wasn't ideal for them.
 

Natiko

Banned
I mean suppose so? Losing their ninja D1 wasn't ideal for them.
We don't know what CCS's role might include if he is scum, but yes there's a decent chance it isn't as valuable to scum as the ninja. I more said that to signify that that is the lenses I am looking through. If CCS isn't scum then it throws a lot of my ideas out of whack.
 

Ty4on

Member
I don't think CCS was ever meant to claim. I think his scum play is just as bad for his team as his town play (no offense). I think their ultimate hope was for Sophia to be lynched. That's why CCS and acohrs move votes in such a way to cause a two way tie between CCS and Sophia. If the Sophia lynch gains traction then great, but if not then CCS is served up on a platter and scum get to go "look we voted for CCS and he flipped scum, don't mind us". CCS and acohrs get so entangled on purpose to try and clear acohrs once CCS flips scum (just look at all the arguments today about how they both aren't likely to be scum). When acohrs gets backed into a corner he even makes the same move CCS did with Sophia - forces a tie and calls it out. It just rings too weird for me for CCS to be town given everything.

What do you think caused their messy interaction? What was their goal? It seems silly for me for them to be bussing that early.
 

Natiko

Banned
What do you think caused their messy interaction? What was their goal? It seems silly for me for them to be bussing that early.
If CCS is in fact scum, given his claim and general oddity - what would you expect them to do? When 2/3 vote leaders are scum what else is there to do but to try and take one of you (acohrs) out of the running while setting up to get free town points if your dark horse lynch candidate loses? They can't risk all pushing for Sophia since she didn't have that much suspicion on her and putting themselves in the crosshairs would be a bad plan.
 

Kyanrute

Member
Splinter into acohrs:

Previous game: CCS was town and acohrs was scum, right?

I'm voting for CCS or acohrs. Way too much FUD for literally no reason.

I haven't read the last three pages but it seems to be between CCS, acohrs and maybe Sophia.

Already said I wanted to vote between CCS and acohrs, and the latter seems more likely to be scum.

VOTE: acohrs

He stated multiple times that he is ordinary and has no further info on acohrs. No way I'd believe a lover/mason claim at this point.

Lol

Too late, noone panic

My 1st thought is that I can't see both Splinter and CCS being scum now that we know what side acohrs was on. 2nd thought is that well it is possible but very unlikely. When Splinter announces that he'd be voting for CCS or acohrs, the votes are 4-3-3 / CCS-acohrs-Sophia.

There is one scenario what I see where Splinter is scum. Scum team becomes worried about the suspicion on acohrs and and they decide that CCS is the best alternative lynch target. They prep for the day end in various ways, scum Splinter posts the post where he narrows his vote to two candidates. If shit hits the fan, he can bus and gain towncred. If things look better, he can join the CCS train without issues. His acohrs vote at the end was then about securing his own ass, no matter what happened to acohrs.

My own opinion is that Splinter voted early enough for the vote to seem like an honest one. He could've waited a minute or two to see where the votes land and then still join the bus if he needed. He did not.
 

Ty4on

Member
If CCS is in fact scum, given his claim and general oddity - what would you expect them to do? When 2/3 vote leaders are scum what else is there to do but to try and take one of you (acohrs) out of the running while setting up to get free town points if your dark horse lynch candidate loses? They can't risk all pushing for Sophia since she didn't have that much suspicion on her and putting themselves in the crosshairs would be a bad plan.

Why would scum!acohrs also self vote if the plan is to bus CCS?

Scum is a minority and don't wanna reveal themselves so controlling the lynch with votes is not a great idea.
 

Natiko

Banned
Why would scum!acohrs also self vote if the plan is to bus CCS?

Scum is a minority and don't wanna reveal themselves so controlling the lynch with votes is not a great idea.
I believe I said it earlier but the thought likely was that whichever survives will be faux cleared due to there being "no way" both are scum after their interactions. It's working to an extent for CCS right now. In a world where Sophia doesn't move her vote and CCS is lynched - had he turned out to be scum a bunch of people would be in here talking about how they doubt acohrs could be scum. If scum thinks there's a good chance one of them is going down they have every incentive to try and clear the remaining members as much as possible.

How about this - if CCS is not scum, in a vague sense where would you expect the remaining three or so scum votes to be? Not saying you have to pick out specific scum candidates but where do you think they would put their votes out of what we saw as the final tally?
 

Natiko

Banned
And remember that I did say I suspect they hoped town would lynch Sophia - they just couldn't risk anyone besides CCS placing a vote there.
 

Natiko

Banned
If CCS isn't scum I don't think you can hold anyone accountable for any of the votes we saw except maybe Sophia for a potential bus if she is scum or Magnumboy for his throwaway vote (on that topic has he posted this day phase?)
 

Ty4on

Member
I believe I said it earlier but the thought likely was that whichever survives will be faux cleared due to there being "no way" both are scum after their interactions. It's working to an extent for CCS right now. In a world where Sophia doesn't move her vote and CCS is lynched - had he turned out to be scum a bunch of people would be in here talking about how they doubt acohrs could be scum. If scum thinks there's a good chance one of them is going down they have every incentive to try and clear the remaining members as much as possible.

How about this - if CCS is not scum, in a vague sense where would you expect the remaining three or so scum votes to be? Not saying you have to pick out specific scum candidates but where do you think they would put their votes out of what we saw as the final tally?

Not sure. I think around 1 on acohrs and rest (~2-3) on CCS or others, scum usually make sure someone is bussing, but that's why the unvotes bother me. Is it townie because scum wants to stay put or scummy because scum were trying to save acohrs. Similarly I can see Sophia's vote being scum team thinking it's going the wrong way, knowing they're all on CCS and making Sophia switch so at least one is on acohrs.

I don't think they were hard set on bussing acohrs seeing how strong acohrs' role was and how close the votes were.

I haven't looked at the votes that closely though because atm I don't see anything clearly from it and the more I look at it the less I feel I know. The last minutes were very chaotic so it's easy to understand townies making mistakes, but also scum making a panic bus. I don't see much obvious town like someone pushing the lynch of acohrs hard and causing it or acting too oblivious to be scum. Maybe from Splinter, CzarTim and you for pushing acohrs' lynch quite hard. You and cabot making unvotes instead of voting CCS also looks more like townie panic than scum plan.
 

Natiko

Banned
Like I said, maybe I am off target and CCS just revels in sabotaging us. If CCS is town I personally can't find much to glean from the votes. Unless I just ignore most of the voting from yesterday and base it purely on post content at which point my list of suspicious people would be similar to yesterday - kyan, nin, melon, bronx, and maybe one of the inactives.
 

Ty4on

Member
I believe I said it earlier but the thought likely was that whichever survives will be faux cleared due to there being "no way" both are scum after their interactions. It's working to an extent for CCS right now. In a world where Sophia doesn't move her vote and CCS is lynched - had he turned out to be scum a bunch of people would be in here talking about how they doubt acohrs could be scum. If scum thinks there's a good chance one of them is going down they have every incentive to try and clear the remaining members as much as possible.

It's just so high risk/low reward. Acohrs isn't confirmed, he's just less suspicious. Kawl was voicing that same theory yesterday as the votes were flying.

Scum isn't always rational and planning ahead, far from it. I think the most likely explanation is acohrs made a mistake when he self voted and tried to salvage the situation. He thought playing jokey with CCS would work out, help him survive another day, but overstepped it and got the focus shifted to him. You can see after that how CCS continues by behaving like normal while acohrs is more quiet and starts voting tactically. If they're both scum CCS would probably be extra worried at the damage he's causing his own team.
 

Natiko

Banned
I guess that is something I don't generally consider. I haven't experienced that side of it yet so I tend to just assume they're in constant communication. Perhaps I'll take another look at everything but try and come at it from the perspective of CCS is town and scum weren't coordinating well.
 

Ty4on

Member
Like I said, maybe I am off target and CCS just revels in sabotaging us. If CCS is town I personally can't find much to glean from the votes. Unless I just ignore most of the voting from yesterday and base it purely on post content at which point my list of suspicious people would be similar to yesterday - kyan, nin, melon, bronx, and maybe one of the inactives.

Kyan has gained some brownie points from me. I like his posts today (though I haven't read them as closely as I should), his acohrs vote was townie and caused acohrs' vote to backfire and I agree with him that Stanley is sketchy af.

What are your feeling regarding Stanley? What triggers my alarm bells is that his contributions look like try-hard mode. His acohrs read feels like "gotta throw my scum mate some shade to look good"; especially when he ended up voting for CCS.
Im finding myself turning around on Acohrs, the many people recounting his apparently strong play in his only previous game has me doubting my initial belief of the whole Inexperience excuse. That and his big accusation against sorian just read like complete bull, not feeling full scum vibes just yet, but it is certainly heading in that direction.
 
Stan into acohrs:







In that last post, Stan votes for CCS and goes to zzz. He never mentions CCS before that post. Stan justifies the vote not by telling how he feels about CCS, but by explaining how he does not see acohrs as scum. The vote comes well before anybody has a clear lead in the votes - after his vote two people have two votes on them and seven have a single one.

Right now I feel Stan is scum. Logically, the vote comes out of the blue. He never justifies why CCS was the vote to go for out of the other 18 non-acohrs+Stan targets. He never mentions CCS. Why the vote then? Because scum team concluded that acohrs could very well become a rope extension and scummies decided that CCS was the likeliest alternative for the job.

well this (the bolded part) feels like some bullshit.
most of this is blatantly wrong, you even left out the part of my post that answer your own question.

your point about achors on the other hand makes a lot more sense, though i haven't really got much to say about it. i made my point about him, and i was completely wrong.
it sucks, but it happens.

In other news, seeing how things have progressed with and around him, im really starting to think that Bronx is town, playing kinda terribly, but not actually against us.

and Kawl is shooting way up my townie list now that he is here and playing for real.
 

Kyanrute

Member
well this (the bolded part) feels like some bullshit.
most of this is blatantly wrong, you even left out the part of my post that answer your own question.

your point about achors on the other hand makes a lot more sense, though i haven't really got much to say about it. i made my point about him, and i was completely wrong.
it sucks, but it happens.

In other news, seeing how things have progressed with and around him, im really starting to think that Bronx is town, playing kinda terribly, but not actually against us.

and Kawl is shooting way up my townie list now that he is here and playing for real.

Hmm I did miss that bit after the vote it seems like. Nullifies the no explanation bit then, sorry for that. The rest holds I think. If I did not miss something else, you never mention CCS before the vote post. But without the no explanation thingy, it does not look as bad I must admit.
 
Who you leaning as scum, Stan?

CCS primarily, big surprise i know.

Sophia is kinda giving me bad vibes, iv played with her in a whole bunch of games, and this one feels offputtingly differant.

also Absolut and Magnumboy feel off, kinda like non-presences, however that could likely be down to me just not paying much attention to them earlier, will likely go back through the thread to get a better read of them.
 
Hmm I did miss that bit after the vote it seems like. Nullifies the no explanation bit then, sorry for that. The rest holds I think. If I did not miss something else, you never mention CCS before the vote post. But without the no explanation thingy, it does not look as bad I must admit.

no you were totally right about me not having mentioned CCS before that, and pretty much every other point.

and sorry about the "complete bs" part, that was a bit much. i kinda assumed you left that out deliberately.
 

Ty4on

Member
I guess that is something I don't generally consider. I haven't experienced that side of it yet so I tend to just assume they're in constant communication. Perhaps I'll take another look at everything but try and come at it from the perspective of CCS is town and scum weren't coordinating well.

Depends a lot on the scum team though I haven't really read other scum team's chat very closely.

They don't have the 60 second timer so they can post a lot more quickly, but are scared shitless of being visible. Scum also tend to overreact anytime they're close to being lynched or caught.

Very often there will be some less active or inactive scum like in Gafia 2 where they were afk causing a scum to be voted out with very few votes. In Pop Quantum was scum and voted out on D1 and it turned out later that he hadn't ever posted in scum chat and the two bussing scum made panic busses.
I'm not sure how much you know about Persona's scum team, but I heard after I died that PK's bus of Exodus was accidental.
The closest scenario I've been in was in Overwatch Mafia D1 where Ezekel was close to being lynched until the lynch swung in the other direction. There our main focus was also Ouro who had successfully identified 4/5 scum members on D1.
 

Natiko

Banned
Kyan has gained some brownie points from me. I like his posts today (though I haven't read them as closely as I should), his acohrs vote was townie and caused acohrs' vote to backfire and I agree with him that Stanley is sketchy af.

What are your feeling regarding Stanley? What triggers my alarm bells is that his contributions look like try-hard mode. His acohrs read feels like "gotta throw my scum mate some shade to look good"; especially when he ended up voting for CCS.
Kyan is interesting because I read him as scummy until the vote. It doesn't actually change his actions D1 - but curiously his posts D2 could almost be from a different person the way the tone shifts. Maybe I'm overly skeptical but part of me wonders if he's trying to use his vote on acohrs to springboard to a more prominent voice and gain townie points. Posts 438 and 448 still look bad to me.

Stanley I felt was a non-entity. He shared very few opinions this game and those he has shared have been proven wrong or are generally not what most of us think (such as just now saying Bronx reads as town to him, I can see a null read but town? Eh..). I think his vote is what pushed him more scummy in my mind. I'd put him as null probably. With some more info I could see it slipping to scum though.
 

CzarTim

Member
I actually find nin's vote on cabot earlier today weirdly townie? Like it followed nin logic, even if I disagree.


But then he unvotes without comment and hasn't said much of substance since. So nin, why did you unvote and does the rest of your analysis of the votes still stand?
 
Why didn't your read change when acohrs flipped scum?

ah, sorry, disregard that first reply, i misread 'why' as 'wait'.

because the theory im currently running with is that achors and CCS's interactions in day 1 was them doubling down on trying to appear to obviously buddy buddy to be scum-mates.
 
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