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[Alex_Mexico]

No way.

It'll do around WiiU numbers (12m). Perhaps a bit more but not by much. It won't get close to making Gamecube numbers though (23m).

The Nintendo Switch will be the last videogame dedicated home console as we know it they'll ever make.

This is not a "Nintendo is doomed" post. This is a "Nintendo as a console maker is probably doomed". Nintendo itself will do fine.

 

[Papacheeks]

Mark my words; units will be readily available for purchase day one without a preorder.

I had the amazon site open while the stream was going and no where after words anytime did I see a preorder button.

Games and accessories are available but the system was not and Nintendo lists only Gamestop, target, and best buy on their site for where to preorder right this minute.

 

[Ryker]

I don't know if it'll be a success or not in the long run, but I'm all but sure that it'll be a flop in the immediate future after launch. The price point is too high...I was hoping it would be 250 with a real game, or 199, but since it's 299 with crazy expensive peripherals, paid online, additional storage costs, and a terrible battery life with full priced games(destroying the mobile/impulse buy aspect of handheld gaming for me), I'm going to wait til fall of 2018 most likely, at the earliest. I am excited for some of the games, but the cost of entry is too high when you can get more powerful systems with increasingly growing value/libraries for the same cost or cheaper. I just don't get you, Nintendo.

 

[BigEmil]

Because it is a handheld, maybe. People go nuts for that shit. I most likely wont buy one though.

Switch will overtake Japan market for sure

 

[Big One]

DQXI is on PS4 and 3DS, no one is buying a switch for it when they already have a platform ready to play it.

While the PS4 isn't a failure in Japan the numbers are still low as in most consoles in Japan. Nintendo had a better start in Japan with the Wii U compared to PS4 (for years teh Wii U was the top selling console in Japan). Most players in Japan still don't own a PS4, so if DQXI comes out there's a good chance they'll buy a Switch with it's release. The 3DS and console versions of the game are also essentially two different games as well.

 

[Hussaro]

No, its obviously a weak console with a mediocre portability gimmick.

Price is to much given its shit hardware and fact PS4 costs less lol WTF you high nintendo. I'll do more then wiiu lol but wont ever sniff even near 30million sold.

Ninty faithful and deluded will buy plus some hardcore, ill flop hard with all others.

Issues

Weak hardware
Shit price - due to screen and complexity will never drop much (wiiu all over again)
No aaa 3rd party sans a few limited cartoony japan games.
Nothing but Kiddy cartoony games mostly. limited market potential.
Overpriced accessories.

Fact the PS4 exists is the greatest reason it will fail, and could be 199.99 for holiday sales.

 

[Cess007]

I mean, it will outsell the WiiU but aside from that. I see it selling around 30m unit solds (after some price cuts)

 

[Trago]

Seriously, Zelda, and then fuck all for months. I'm not sure how well Mario Kart Deluxe will do, but I'm really skeptical now. We're running into the same situation as the Wii U. These dry spells between releases. This really doesn't look good for someone dropping three hundo on this thing.

Again, Zelda, and fuck all for however many months.

 

[ironcreed]

The portable crowd they are looking for will just wish for them to release their games on their mobile devices and the console crowd will blow it off because, well, it's just not a console. If Nintendo's aim was to create an opportunity to walk out the back door and go third party, then I would say that this is a pretty good strategy to accomplish just that.

 

[ChrisMahoney]

people who were willing to buy it for $200 will buy it for $300

That doesn't make any sense

 

[Alex_Mexico]

25-40 million depending on how successful they transition it to a full handheld and drop the price/dock.

40 million? You think this thing can do better than the WiiU, GC, and the N64? Nintendo will be fortunate if they get close to Gamecube's numbers!

 

[PopcornMegaphone]

This will sell like the WiiU. Maybe lower. The top end is gamecube numbers.

 

[Papacheeks]

Is that so? My understanding is that pre-orders were open for some time, long enough to sell through the quantities that were available for pre-order, and to thereby make an impact on the chart. Is that incorrect?

If it's correct, the question would be, simply: how long, exactly, do you expect this to last? And when exactly would you expect the Switch to come back down to Earth (as measured by this particular chart)?

Games and accessories are available to preorder on amazon but the system was not and Nintendo lists only Gamestop, target, and best buy on their site for where to preorder right this minute.

ALso had the amazon site open on the switch page all night and it never changed over to preorder.

 

[Crimsonclaw111]

It'll do great out the gate
Warriors will beat their chest, exclaiming NINTENDO IS BACK BABEH
Months will pass
Sales will dwindle
Switch will be left in the cold just like the Wii U

 

[Justice_Bolt]

I can't believe how doom and gloom people are. They will completey sell out at launch. Who knows what they are holding back for E3!? Mario this holiday is big. It will do well.

The console is 400$ +80$ for zelda without taxes here in Canada. Nintendo deserve the hate. The pro controller is like 90$ And the console has 32gb storage. And now it has paid online with no third party support. Lol

 

[Omnistalgic]

Besides the hilarity of much of your list sounding like Wii U 2.0, I don't buy this. The casual consumer is going to walk into Walmart this summer and holiday season and see an X1/PS4 for sub-$250 with a pack-in game next to a Switch at $300 with nothing included.

Guess which one the casual consumer will pick up.

I agree, but there's already 50+ million of those households that already have a PS4/X1.

 

[MrFortyFive]

If they can keep some releases coming, definitely. I think the concept is great. If this trend of dry spells continues (looking that way...), they'll lose momentum quickly at that price.

 

[Scrawnton]

For the record, I think this thread would be identical to this if it was $250 and Splatoon and Smash were at launch.

 

[Bulbasaur]

Gaf knows nothing. Pretty much everybody chiming in here is biased either pro or against Nintendo.

 

[McMoneyman]

Will sell really well at launch, but struggle in the months after. It will see some good numbers when big games like Mario and Smash releases.


Can't see it selling more than 30 million.

 

[killatopak]

Switch will overtake Japan market for sure

I dunno man. Japanese people had a hard time switching(heh) to a newer gen since the ps2 era. I mean there are still psp releases coming out now in japan. I doubt they'll go nuts with the switch when the 3ds and vita is still strong there.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

Because it is a handheld, maybe. People go nuts for that shit. I most likely wont buy one though.

Do they still? Because a lot less people went nuts for Vita and 3DS than did for PSP and DS respectively. There's some pretty obvious signs of some significant contraction in that market, and it's probably only going to get worse as a generations of kids grow up gaming on phones and tablets as opposed to dedicated handhelds. On top of that, the 3DS struggled to sell to the traditional handheld market at $249 yet this thing is supposed to do okay at $300?

 

[Abelard]

I like Nintendo games. They have a quality that just isn't replicated by 3rd parties. Eventually I'll buy a Switch... But a success, yes. In the sense that it makes money but isn't a market leader.

What's with this glorification of Nintendo? Not picking on you but just wanted to respond to this ludicrous sentiment, this is exactly the sort if attitude that leads them to be so egotistical and arrogant, Nintendo doesn't have some "mythical" quality that makes them better than every developer, in fact I feel that their inability to accept the leisures of modern gaming such as online services and voice acting have left them a lame duck- not that there games aren't good because BOTW is still my most anticipated for this year (even though I have no means of playing it) but its silly to conflate Nintendo's quirkiness and isolation from mainstream gaming as a uniqueness of quality only they posses.

The console is 400$ +80$ for zelda without taxes here in Canada. Nintendo deserve the hate. The pro controller is like 90$ And the console has 32gb storage. And now it has paid online with no third party support. Lol

Getting a proper setup is even more expensive than the launch PS3 when adjusted for inflation.

Jesus. Better grab a second job!

 

[YBdisk]

Not with their pricing.
I was expecting:

250 Switch
50 dock
75 Joy-cons with charger
50 pro controllers
And free online with maybe a vc subscription service.

They've fucking lost it. It's unwarranted arrogant pricing. It's as if they forgot which consoles they're coming off of.

I'm really really really displeased with Nintendo right now. Fuck!

 

[Bgamer90]

Success meaning what? Anyone expecting the Switch to be a full comeback for Nintendo to get to Xbox/PlayStation level was being very shortsighted. Nintendo simply wants relevancy here (something the Wii U didn't have) -- it seems that the Switch will have that so it will be "successful" in that sense. I can't see the system staying at $300 for too long. It's going to need a drop, especially when the Xbox One and PS4 should be available for $199.99 very soon.

The prices scream "we know Nintendo fans will buy it no matter what". They need to think about attracting people outside of that. $249.99 or less would have done that.

 

[Kssio_Aug]

It'll do great out the gate
Warriors will beat their chest, exclaiming NINTENDO IS BACK BABEH
Months will pass
Sales will dwindle
Switch will be left in the cold just like the Wii U

Probably is... what about their handheld? Will they keep supporting 3DS as their main handheld?

Cause if Switch fails in both fronts, than that would be fucked up.

 

[Broadbandito]

It will be very successful moving forward IMO. At least zelda is at a launch. decent selection of nintendo games this year, more obviously to come. If it was just a home console I would say it wouldn't be successful. I am beyond excited about it being a handheld and being able to use usb batteries to charge it on the go to play real dual analog games.

 

[Remapped88]

Maybe not Wii style success but definitely over Wii U....the huge negative here is always crazy out there compared to other places. It's not the best thing ever and they have a lot of dumb and questionable things(32 gigs, absolutely overpriced controllers, online pay, etc) but I think that it's definitely gonna be a slow burn like 3DS. The launch is a pretty huge let down but the line up for Year 1 is extremely promising going by what's actually been announced. Talked to one of my co-workers and also one of my cousins during the live event and they were all extremely positive about it, especially on the new Mario, new IP Arms and Zelda being at launch. 1 of my other cousins who absolutely hated the Wii/Wii U Nintendo era thought the Switch looked great and kept asking me where to find pre-order sites for him. All in all, I think many more people are excited by Switch than anything Nintendo's done for a long while despite all the negativity here. It's definitely gonna be a slow start that's for sure but E3 is around the corner(with Nintendo Directs in between) and this being only f'ing January, I'm genuinely excited for it.

 

[Asd202]

For the record, I think this thread would be identical to this if it was $250 and Splatoon and Smash were at launch.

Of course it would you still sell the product to the same audience. Anyway I expect it will have a solid launch with Nintendo hardcore picking it up for Zelda. i think the console will struggle starting in May, it will get resurgence thanks to the Splatoon 2 in Japan but overall it will not do well until the Holidays and maybe a price drop. Overall I definitely expect it to be down from 3DS maybe even substantially.

Also I want to talk about 3rd parties. When you have nothing but logo trailers and talking heads for 3 minutes not showing any gameplay or trailer just to fill the hole in the conference speak volumes about the state of 3rd parties on the Switch. It's obvious that they barely started working on this device and that's when PS4 and Xbox may be entering their best year 3rd party wise. That's just ridiculous to me.

 

[mackattk]

The sad thing is, people testing it seem to have a lot of fun with it, it's getting good previews. Just like Nintendo was stupid not to include the pictionary wario ware game with every Wii Unit sold - such a good showcase -, they designed the most advanced non VR motion controllers, no one will experience. Tens of thousands at most will pay for 1, 2 Switch.

Giving it for free to all owners would increase value perception, customer satisfaction and exposure to the stuff they spent years on. Nintendo, how come can you be so stupid, again?

1-2 switch is a $50 game that should be a pack in.

 

[kadotsu]

If they can redesign it to be more kid friendly (less loose parts, sturdier, cheaper) before Monster Hunter and Pokémon drop they could beat the Gamecube, maybe.

 

[wildfire]

The absence of prominent handheld titles in combination with Nintendo's mobile schedule including projects involving Animal Crossing and Fire Emblem have me thinking the Switch is not the "hybrid" people are billing it as. If Nintendo funnels all of their resources into the Switch they are falling into a trap of their own design. As for the appeal of the Switch, there is really nothing that leverages the portability of the system, and the motion control heavy games like Arms and even 1, 2 Switch seem at odds with the system's portable nature. So far nothing shown has taken advantage of being able to take the Switch away from the TV, but it sure is inheriting a number of limitations from the same gimmick.

If you look at Japan release schedule Fire Emblem and Animal Crossing are coming. The way they advertised these games considering that they are region free now is a mess.

 

[ironcreed]

Gaf knows nothing. Pretty much everybody chiming in here is biased either pro or against Nintendo.

No, I am pretty sure I was wanting to be sold. As I do love me a fresh new system. But the negatives are far too glaring to ignore. I mean, my God.

 

[guek]

A modest success

 

[Ninja Scooter]

I agree, but there's already 50+ million of those households that already have a PS4/X1.

And how many of those people are legitimately interested in a second console or a dedicated handheld?

 

[Father_Brain]

I think it will be Nintendo's swan song in the dedicated hardware business, and no, it doesn't have to bomb at Wii U levels for that to be the case.

 

[Cert.in.Death]

It'll be a sub 20m lifetime device which is a failure in my eyes. And sadly, I hope it spurs Nintendo to exit the market as a platform maker.

 

[Kodiak]

Do they still? Because a lot less people went nuts for Vita and 3DS than did for PSP and DS respectively. There's some pretty obvious signs of some significant contraction in that market, and it's probably only going to get worse as a generations of kids grow up gaming on phones and tablets as opposed to dedicated handhelds. On top of that, the 3DS struggled to sell to the traditional handheld market at $249 yet this thing is supposed to do okay at $300?

The 3DS and Vita weren't also home consoles. I think that, and the fact that it has 2 controllers out of the box will help it appeal to families. It's pretty cool that you can buy the system and Mario Kart and instantly have a multiplayer setup that works both in a car and on your TV.

Now, will people actually buy that when they already have tablets and smartphones? Idk...

 

[Timeaisis]

I think it will have a slow start. We'll see how many games it will get in the first year. E3 will be critical.

 

[Trago]

I guess Zelda will sell systems out of the game, but there isn't much to keep the momentum going. Mario Kart Deluxe? Really? Splatoon 2 could do numbers, but there's no momentum in releasing so far out of the launch window.

If Nintendo keeps this up, I'm not sure how much better this can do than Wii U.

Bullshit unproven paid online service doesn't help either.

 

[Beelzeboss]

I'm not so sure about it now.

Nintendo had a great opportunity to release a console that blended handheld and home consoles together but I think they fumbled and have something with all the cons and none of the pros of doing so.

 

[General Lee]

I think it'll do better than Wii U simply out of the virtue of combining the handheld and home console efforts. Other than that, I don't think a hybrid device like this is a good idea. Unless the handheld part of this is a major use case, this won't be able to compete against Sony and MS in terms of being a home console. It'll appeal to casual and family friendly gamers, but the price might be a turn off for that target audience. Overall I think Nintendo is just stuck in the past in some ways, and is too much of a Japanese company that attempts to make products for the Japanese customer, and the worldwide market is just an afterthought.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

I agree, but there's already 50+ million of those households that already have a PS4/X1.

Why does that matter ?

 

[Wallach]

Games and accessories are available to preorder on amazon but the system was not and Nintendo lists only Gamestop, target, and best buy on their site for where to preorder right this minute.

ALso had the amazon site open on the switch page all night and it never changed over to preorder.

It never did, for some reason they were only available through the vendor listing page.

The Neon color version has yet to go up on Amazon, though.

 

[Papacheeks]

I agree, but there's already 50+ million of those households that already have a PS4/X1.

And you dont think with other games bundled the 250$ PS4, XBOX one lose conusmer interest?

Because just this December a shit ton were bought, and if people are excited about the games coming these next couple months they will continue to sell a lot of consoles?

Were not even close to tapping PS4 out at this point.

 

[FinaruDensetsu]

This is Wii U 2.0

 

[jabberwocker]

Nintendoomed lol... actually is it?

The $299 models are almost sold out online less than 12 hours after start of sales.... thats only a few weeks quicker than it took for the ps4 for what it is worth..

 

[BitStyle]

Not at launch. If they bring the games and drop some prices going forward they may be able to salvage it, but it certainly won't be setting sales charts on fire.

 

[killatopak]

For the record, I think this thread would be identical to this if it was $250 and Splatoon and Smash were at launch.

Nah man. A lot of people were going day one with 250. Bad launch line up and online paywall was the last straw.

 

[Danny Dudekisser]

It'll be a success, but not at launch. It's not completely analogous to the 3DS, obviously, but remember, kids -- that system was a fucking trainwreck at launch.