Mister Megative
Banned
Sold through.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
April 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, May 9th
Sold through.
ethomaz
Banned
P5 is a 2016 game that got localized in 2017... I forget it launched in US last month... it was my confusion.
MatPiscatella
Member
Ah, I see.
ethomaz
Banned
My estimates for Switch shipment for April.
JP: 200k
US: 250k
EU: 150k
RotW: 50-100k
I predicted 300k for Switch but even removing 50k from EU and RotW it can reach max 350k shipped for US in my estimates.
Nintendo planned to shop 600-700k per month outside holidays if you look at the 10m for FY2017.
I corrected, the 1.5m might include JP.
By week 43 in 2016 P5 wasn't high enough in Mediacreate to report sales anymore, and it was before that near 360k sales.
Isn't that a bit low though? The 200k for Japan is pretty much a given, looking at the weekly sales but only 250K for the US and 150k for Europe? Wouldn't Nintendo be able to produce about a Million Units per month now that they increased production? -Then again it's April... perhaps we wouldn't see an increase in shipment until May.
ethomaz
Banned
For a FY reach 10m you need that... PS4 for example ships 900-1000k in these months to reach 18-20m for FY.
That is my estimate btw.
But to believe Nintendo changed the 10m plan few weeks after is pretty hard... at least this quarter I believe Nintendo is shipping what they planed... any boost in production will probably only be saw in Q2 (Jul-Sep) and they will change the 10m forecast.
For now all evidences shows they are really shipping that amount per month.
Mister Megative
Banned
No need. You clearly don't really have any idea what you're talking about.
No. We've seen 30% of launch sales be digital on 3DS before, and that was years ago. Maybe it's "terrible" compared to PS4/XB1, but it's by no means terrible in an absolute sense. The trend has only been getting more toward digital as time goes on, and that especially rings true on handhelds, which a lot of people look at the Switch as.
--------
April and May are usually slow, so if the PR guys were going to get a month off, this would be the one. As mentioned, Nintendo's already done their interesting PR with the MK8DX launch. Sony/Microsoft probably have nothing worth pointing out in a typically very slow month. *shrugs*
They shipped 2.7 million in March with over 1/3 going to NA. For me it seems like NA is being prioritized compared to Japan/EU so I'd still expect over 400K in the NPD for Switch.
In terms of sw, top 5 is likely going to be MK8D, Zelda, GTA, HZD and Persona similarly to majority of sw charts in Europe for April. I personally expect that MK8D will be top due to no other major release coming out and Zelda will be in the top 3 because it is going to continue to sell to new Switch owners for a long while. With US being the biggest Switch market this bodes well for Zelda in the upcoming months as it could probably continue to chart due to new Switch owners.
Persona GTA and HZD are the other likely top 5 games with Persona depending on shipments with the best chance to be in the top 3, perhaps with a slight chance of finishing ahead of Zelda in the US.
In any case April is generally pretty weak month for hw/sw - for me the real question is whether MK8D can retain it's top spot next month or will Injustice 2 be able to sell over 500K and topple the enhanced port.
In terms of sw, top 5 is likely going to be MK8D, Zelda, GTA, HZD and Persona similarly to majority of sw charts in Europe for April. I personally expect that MK8D will be top due to no other major release coming out and Zelda will be in the top 3 because it is going to continue to sell to new Switch owners for a long while. With US being the biggest Switch market this bodes well for Zelda in the upcoming months as it could probably continue to chart due to new Switch owners.
Persona GTA and HZD are the other likely top 5 games with Persona depending on shipments with the best chance to be in the top 3, perhaps with a slight chance of finishing ahead of Zelda in the US.
In any case April is generally pretty weak month for hw/sw - for me the real question is whether MK8D can retain it's top spot next month or will Injustice 2 be able to sell over 500K and topple the enhanced port.
theprodigy
Member
12. [PS4] Persona 5 # <RPG> (Atlus) {2016.09.15} (¥8.800) – 362.909
60. [PS3] Persona 5 # <RPG> (Atlus) {2016.09.15} (¥8.800) – 112.372
From Famitsu 2016 top 100, doesn't include digital, also back in the end of September they released some PR saying 550k shipped+digital in Japan.
Mister Megative
Banned
Consoles must be dead.
slavesnyder
Member
finally these NPD threads have become more structured and compact, thanks to a lot of efford on restructuring content and participation.
I now can get all relevant information in a few clicks without scrolling through pages of irrelevant data dump and hyperventilation. that's highly efficient and should also please the industry members who always get good inspiration and analysis from video game enthusiasts here.
I now can get all relevant information in a few clicks without scrolling through pages of irrelevant data dump and hyperventilation. that's highly efficient and should also please the industry members who always get good inspiration and analysis from video game enthusiasts here.
unapersson
Member
Did Mat not say the info is out next week?
ethomaz
Banned
I agree. The actual situation is really sad
Not sure if serious
Primethius
Banned
Slavesnyders become too good at his craft.
Sangetsu-II
Member
Slow periods. Got to imagine that companies will start trickling PR with the physical release again once there's something to say. Again, Nintendo's already said their piece this month, so we may not get anything else publicly from them. Hopefully someone in the media will be able to get the number from Nintendo, though. Physical release for May is week before E3 with the press release during E3. Wonder if that is planned to be delayed.
Mat,
Is there any plan to delay the May NPD digital+physical (and physical?) data release to avoid conflicts with E3 coverage the week of June 12?
Mat,
Is there any plan to delay the May NPD digital+physical (and physical?) data release to avoid conflicts with E3 coverage the week of June 12?
MatPiscatella
Member
Nope.
Media release is this Thursday.
Any company can put out PR and their numbers if it wants to. However we have a very specific and inflexible schedule for doing so.
ethomaz
Banned
Well you only get revenue numbers for the months separeted by hardware, software and accessory... plus the TOP10 by revenue like every second Thursday.
The hardware places (who sold more) that happens on the first Thursday didn't happen because any company wish to write a PR this month.
So you won't anything close to all info.
MatPiscatella
Member
It's a top 20, actually.
Welfare
Member
Thanks again
Just hope Nintendo is waiting for the software PR release to discuss numbers.
Sangetsu-II
Member
MatPiscatella
Member
Obviously, bit of a weird spot for Xbox. By announcing Scorpio and talking so highly of it, consumers are effectively being told to wait to hear more before making a purchase decision. Everyone knows this will have an impact on the existing product in the market. The only way it makes sense to do this imo is if one is so confident in what Scorpio will be and offer that facing headwinds in the early part of the year would be worth it and made up for in holiday. We'll have to wait and see if this is the case or not, but to succeed there must be big surprises around E3 on games, price and services. Microsoft is a smart organization full of people that understand the business. I have to believe that they've a plan they believe can win. I'm looking forward to seeing it as much as anyone.
Obliterator
Member
Still no PR from anyone.
Hardware must have been real bad I'd have to imagine.
Hardware must have been real bad I'd have to imagine.
Well Sony doesn't do pr. They tweet they won sometimes but have stopped since their streak was broken by Xbox one s I believe, Nintendo has talked about switch hardware and software sales in recent times so that just leaves ms who usually send out pr spin but they probably did terrible as expected with Scorpio coming out later this year.
Wasn't there a Nielson survey that showed less than 10% of buyers are even aware of the Scorpio and Ps4pro.
Obliterator
Member
I'm still betting both PS4 and Xbox are down YoY. And I wonder if Switch had a pretty huge drop off from stock issues.
I guess there's not a whole lot of positive vibes on the hardware front to put out there
Jon Carter
Member
I would assume there won't be a Nintendo PR for hardware because the low shipments for April would make the numbers seem unimpressive.
Sony stopped doing PR even with better sales YOY. But yeah it probably was just a (very) slow month
It's also true that they've recently released a triumphant PR about MK8D's debut, so maybe they felt that could've been enough for the time being.
Still, I'd be shocked if Switch sold less than 200,000 in April (reference: that's how many consoles were shipped in Japan).
MatPiscatella
Member
So we're coming off a March where HW, SW and ACC were all up, where we had one of the best HW launches in recent memory, and because there's no PR this thread is doom and gloom. Amazing.
Consoles are doomed.
DriftingSpirit
Member
WelcometoNeoGaf.gif
Mister Megative
Banned
ethomaz
Banned
Less than 200k is a bit extreme but using the forecast Nintendo didn't shipped more than 350k to US... to be fair 350k is a bit extreme too... more like 200-300k shipped in April to US.
Your forecast is based on 2 million in Q2 of this year, and therefore 2M/3 = 667k a month, right? I personally feel they could potentially have done a bit more for this month compared to what they will do for May and June due to MK8D (even assuming that 2 million for Q2 is correct), so I don't think 350k is extreme per se. We'll probably see in two days either way.
Obliterator
Member
I'm probably one of the last people you can assume being uneducated or doom and gloom about the industry in this forum. So no need to be condescending.
I've just been wondering if hardware was down for the month in general between Xbox and PS4 for most of the month. I didn't see much reason for either to be up. Would be nice if they were though
MatPiscatella
Member
I wasn't being condescending. And I know you're from industry.
None needed. Apologies for my post coming across that way.
Obliterator
Member
Ah my apologies if I read wrong into your post. My bad there.
ethomaz
Banned
We won't see in two days
hanspampel
Banned
April and May are always the worst months. Basically every year.
April and May is off season
June is draft.
July and August is preseason
September - December is season
Januar is the weeks between
February and March is postseason
Aaron Greenberg is right.
April and May Hardware numbers can be bad and the industry can still be healthy. It's not either or
UC4 in May is a huge free agency move, before someone even trys to argue against my sport analogy. It's perfect.
April and May is off season
June is draft.
July and August is preseason
September - December is season
Januar is the weeks between
February and March is postseason
Aaron Greenberg is right.
April and May Hardware numbers can be bad and the industry can still be healthy. It's not either or
UC4 in May is a huge free agency move, before someone even trys to argue against my sport analogy. It's perfect.
Mister Megative
Banned
They're almost certainly down; April always is from March. I expect since both are down, there's no real reason for anyone to spin the PR machine. Sony doesn't do PR monthly sales releases anymore anyway, and Ninty already did their press deal with MK8. Who knows how much Switch sold, but I'm quite certain everything shipped was sold. Software is up YoY, also.
Welfare
Member
SalesGAF lives in the month to month. We erase what happened last month and assume the worst in the present.
slavesnyder
Member
The beast is still to come