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[PhoncipleBone]

I'm seeing over $800m worldwide, but not 850.
And if it goes over $300m domestic, it won't be over $350m.

I am being cautious after blowing my predictions on GOTG2 and others.

 

[Jigorath]

Spidey:

125m OW
350m DOM
900m WW

Spidey should be big. Real big. I think it'll just miss out on that billion.

 

[Toa TAK]

What do we do if we win?

 

[zsynqx]

I cant believe baby driver budget was only 34 million. Edgar Wright is amazing

I can't believe the House had a budget of 40 million.

 

[shintoki]

Spidey

110 OW
375DOM
850WW

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

What do we do if we win?

Hmm, due to the serendipity of the Steam sale going on... I would be willing to get a $15-20 game for the winner. Since it ends on July 5 it will have to be OF MY CHOOSING :O

 

[Cooter]

Spidey

120 OW
350 DOM
900 WW

 

[SolicitorPirate]

What caused the huge drop for Transformers 5? Sure, it's terrible. But every one of those movies except arguably the first have been terrible, and that's never stopped them.

 

[WaffleTaco]

Spider-Man: Homecoming Predictions:

110 OW
320 Dom
530 Foreign

880 Worldwide

 

[hodayathink]

Homecoming predictions.

115 OW
335 DOM
880 WW

 

[Schlorgan]

$350m Dom
$875m WW

 

[Shaanyboi]

Spider-Man predictions...

109m OW
405m DOM
1.1b WW

 

[J_Viper]

It'd be weird if F8 is the only noteworthy film this year to hit 1 Billion Troops

With these great impressions incoming, I'm thinking Spidey could make it

I don't see Apes or Dunkirk having an impact at all

 

[kswiston]

My shot in the dark:

Opening Weekend: $114,844,117
Domestic Total: $325M
Worldwide: $850M

 

[Anth0ny]

I'm optimistic for Spidey:

$150 OW
$400 DOM
$1B WW

 

[DMczaf]

Dunkirk got the Chief Justice John Roberts Seal of Hype-proval

https://twitter.com/ZoeTillman/status/880805710216527872

Garland concludes by asking about the chief justice's summer reading/movie plans. Roberts says he's interested in seeking Dunkirk (same)

We doing it, Guzim!

#MillionsOfDollars

 

[hodayathink]

It'd be weird if F8 is the only noteworthy film this year to hit 1 Billion Troops

With these great impressions incoming, I'm thinking Spidey could make it

I don't see Apes or Dunkirk having an impact at all

First of all, Beauty and the Beast was noteworthy.

Second of all, The Last Jedi.

 

[The Strokes]

I adored Baby Driver, traveled two hours from the border of Mexico to a city in Texas that was playing it super early before I headed to work.

Glad to see those numbers.

Edit: lol guys, Spidey ain't making a billion, brand is too tarnished.

 

[kswiston]

Straight average ticket price inflation would place Spider-Man 3's opening at $195M. But given that it is a blockbuster that would have IMAX/3D earnings, the 2017 equivalent would be somewhere north of $210M.

Sort of crazy how huge the Raimi films were compared to even the optimistic predictions we have for Homecoming.

The first Spider-man was about the same size as The Avengers or Jurassic World domestically.

 

[Buckle]

Straight average ticket price inflation would place Spider-Man 3's opening at $195M. But given that it is a blockbuster that would have IMAX/3D earnings, the 2017 equivalent would be somewhere north of $210M.

Sort of crazy how huge the Raimi films were compared to even the optimistic predictions we have for Homecoming.

The first Spider-man was about the same size as The Avengers or Jurassic World domestically.

Back then, we didn't take the few good superheroes movies we actually got for granted. Felt more like an event.

Nowadays we have such a large range of films in the genre that they don't gain that sort of attention too easily I would guess.

 

[Cooter]

What's crazy to me is that WW is the odds on favorite to be the highest grossing domestic SH film of the year at this point. What a time to be alive!

 

[kswiston]

Back then, we didn't take the few good superheroes movies we actually got for granted. Felt more like an event.

Nowadays we have such a large range of films in the genre that they don't gain that sort of attention too easily I would guess.

Even if Wonder Woman passes Spider-man 1's $404M domestic, it still enjoyed a 15 year reign as the highest grossing non-sequel in its genre. Superman held that distinction for about 11 years, and Batman 1989 for close to 13 years. And unlike those two, Spider-man actually had a ton of competition in the superhero genre. 31 other superhero films have made $200M+ since 2002.

 

[WaffleTaco]

It'd be weird if F8 is the only noteworthy film this year to hit 1 Billion Troops

With these great impressions incoming, I'm thinking Spidey could make it

I don't see Apes or Dunkirk having an impact at all

As someone said, Beauty and the Beast (also higher than FF8), and then there is The Last Jedi, and possibly Justice League if it is more in the span in Wonder Woman rather than BvS/Suicide Squad.

What's crazy to me is that WW is the odds on favorite to be the highest grossing domestic SH film of the year at this point. What a time to be alive!

Justice League?

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

Surprised to see many not thinking Spidey will get over a billion WW. Spider-Man is huge and almost any parent would be ok taking their kids to see him, and this is a huge holiday week. Also, Spider Man has probably the widest appeal of any super hero.

Is he not as big overseas, or is it because of the reception of The Amazing Spider-Man 1 & 2?

 

[BumRush]

Surprised to see many not thinking Spidey will get over a billion WW. Spider-Man is huge and almost any parent would be ok taking their kids to see him, and this is a huge holiday week. Also, Spider Man has probably the widest appeal of any super hero.

Is he not as big overseas, or is it because of the reception of The Amazing Spider-Man 1 & 2?

Both ASM movies made under $800M with better exchange rates

 

[hanspampel]

Even if Wonder Woman passes Spider-man 1's $404M domestic, it still enjoyed a 15 year reign as the highest grossing non-sequel in its genre. Superman held that distinction for about 11 years, and Batman 1989 for close to 13 years. And unlike those two, Spider-man actually had a ton of competition in the superhero genre. 31 other superhero films have made $200M+ since 2002.

Isn't 60 million more very unlikely?
Especially with the next superhero movie coming out this week already

 

[Freeza Under The Shower]

I'm just going to stick with my 175 domestic total run for Spidey just in case! :'D

But considering good reviews it's probably more like 300 domestic, 900 WW. That Marvel x2 foreign multiplier at work.
If it goes over 300 domestic, it's also going to go over 1 billion WW. But I can't see that happening on a solo Spider-Man movie.

 

[WaffleTaco]

Surprised to see many not thinking Spidey will get over a billion WW. Spider-Man is huge and almost any parent would be ok taking their kids to see him, and this is a huge holiday week. Also, Spider Man has probably the widest appeal of any super hero.

Is he not as big overseas, or is it because of the reception of The Amazing Spider-Man 1 & 2?

Because even at the height of its popularity it never reached a billion and the highest it has ever done foreign was $550 mil. It would need to make more than $650 in foreign money which almost never happens unless it's an Avengers-type ordeal. Plus it is opening in a competitive season where money will be taken from it. One of the big reasons Wonder Woman has done so well was that almost every other movie has been terrible since it was released in the beginning of June.

Isn't 60 million more very unlikely?
Especially with the next superhero movie coming out this week already

I mean probably, but if someone casual who doesn't care about the MCU or DCEU wanted to go to see a movie, which would they rather see, a 6th Spider-Man film in less the 20 years set in NYC played by a white boy...or the biggest female comic book hero ever which has had incredible word of mouth.

 

[kswiston]

Isn't 60 million more very unlikely?
Especially with the next superhero movie coming out this week already

It is, but Wonder Woman has overperformed every weekend, so I'm not going to say it is impossible. TDK made another $62M after its fifth weekend. It's fifth weekend was only about $200k higher than the Wonder Woman estimate.

Now TDK had a better 6th weekend drop than can reasonably be expected from Wonder Woman in light of SM:Homecoming, as well as a holiday in its 7th weekend. For those reasons, $390M or so is probably more likely (and it could be under that if Spider-Man hits unusually hard) .

 

[kewlmyc]

Wow, Cars 3 is under performing super hard it seems.

 

[b&jy77VjiKn$#F]

Justice League?

 

[broncobuster]

Justice League?

JL would need a sizable bump from BvS to surpass WW domestic. But it's very likely JL will pass it worldwide.

 

[hodayathink]

Wow, Cars 3 is under performing super hard it seems.

Pixar likes to ignore Illumination movies when scheduling their own, and said Illumination movies tend to cut off their legs when they come out. Happened last year with Finding Dory/SLOP, and it's happening again this year with Cars 3/DM 3.

 

[WaffleTaco]

Were people saying the same thing about The Avengers? Wonder Woman doing well could help restore its image. Plus if the film is actually good it could perform well...however there is also Thor 3 and The Last Jedi. Honestly WB should have put it at the end of August.

 

[kswiston]

Wow, Cars 3 is under performing super hard it seems.

This gross is pretty much expected. I had Cars 3 at $155M domestic after its opening weekend. The actual total is still looking like $150-160M depending on legs. This weekend was always going to be a bit of a bloodbath. But the next animated film is at the end of the month, so it should get some good weekends in. Spider-Man might even help if Cars 3 gets the bundle treatment at drive-ins.

EDIT: I forgot that Spider-Man was Sony! So Cars 3 won't be bundled in drive-ins. My sort-of-local drive in has Homecoming playing with Baby Driver.

 

[Freeza Under The Shower]

also features Wonder Woman, so it might benefit from the previous movie being Wonder Woman and not BvS. It is going to be interesting how that movie plays out.

However, it's coming out in the holiday season so that movie IS going to make a billion for simply being there. It would take a Penguin miracle (baby jeebus from the sewer, as Batman Returns predicted) to stop that from happening.

edit: oh crap, domestic only, not worldwide. Then no. Beating 400million+ on domestic is probably not happening.

 

[J_Viper]

First of all, Beauty and the Beast was noteworthy.

Second of all, The Last Jedi.

B&tB is garbage though : )

For some reason, I keep forgetting Episode 8 even exists, I'm excited for it, but yeah that'll definitely hit a billion

As someone said, Beauty and the Beast (also higher than FF8), and then there is The Last Jedi, and possibly Justice League if it is more in the span in Wonder Woman rather than BvS/Suicide Squad.


Justice League?

Batman + WW will be a huge draw, but I think the RT will be integral to its success.

If it's above 70%, a billion is locked.

 

[Schlorgan]

Batman + WW will be a huge draw, but I think the RT will be integral to its success.

If it's above 70%, a billion is locked.

I think that's a fair.

If it lines up with BvS, there's no way.

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

This gross is pretty much expected. I had Cars 3 at $155M domestic after its opening weekend. The actual total is still looking like $150-160M depending on legs. This weekend was always going to be a bit of a bloodbath. But the next animated film is at the end of the month, so it should get some good weekends in. Spider-Man might even help if Cars 3 gets the bundle treatment at drive-ins.

I was actually wondering about this. Are we going to a double feature across studios? I doubt either of Sony's current releases do, on account of being R-rated.

EDIT: I forgot that Spider-Man was Sony! So Cars 3 won't be bundled in drive-ins. My sort-of-local drive in has Homecoming playing with Baby Driver.

Well nevermind, lol

 

[kswiston]

It would sort of be embarrassing if Justice League wasn't the #1 superhero film of the year worldwide. That's supposed to be DCEU's juggernaut.

 

[broncobuster]

Were people saying the same thing about The Avengers? Wonder Woman doing well could help restore its image. Plus if the film is actually good it could perform well...however there is also Thor 3 and The Last Jedi. Honestly WB should have put it at the end of August.

Avengers certainly exceeded expectations; I believe estimates were in the area of a billion and not $1.5B. Who knows if Justice League will similarly have a huge increase from the predecessor. But even Marvel Studios hasn't been able to reach the same success as Avengers 1, so the novelty of heroes teaming up isn't so novel anymore.

 

[WaffleTaco]

B&tB is garbage though : )

For some reason, I keep forgetting Episode 8 even exists, I'm excited for it, but yeah that'll definitely hit a billion



Batman + WW will be a huge draw, but I think the RT will be integral to its success.

If it's above 70%, a billion is locked.

BATB is considered bad?? Episode 8 is weird. The Death Boost is defintley a real thing, but I don't think it will make as much as Episode 7.

I think that's a fair.

If it lines up with BvS, there's no way.

I imagine the marketing will heavily feature Wonder Woman when it starts.

Avengers certainly exceeded expectations; I believe estimates were in the area of a billion and not $1.5B. Who knows if Justice League will similarly have a huge increase from the predecessor. But even Marvel Studios hasn't been able to reach the same success as Avengers 1, so the novelty of heroes teaming up isn't so novel anymore.

Well Avenger 2 only made a 100 million less.

 

[kswiston]

I was actually wondering about this. Are we going to a double feature across studios? I doubt either of Sony's current releases do, on account of being R-rated.

Well nevermind, lol

Baby Driver is sort of on the softer side of the Rated-R scale, so I guess as a second feature, it isn't terrible. The violence isn't any worse than network TV, so it's really just some language.

EDIT: Keep in mind that I am in Ontario though. Baby Driver is 14A here. Homecoming is PG.

 

[Shao Kahn Brewing a Stew]

Justice League?

 

[Obliterator]

Spidey Homecoming Prediction

$115m opening weekend
$330m Domestic Total
$900m Global Total

 

[BTM]

Baby Driver and Wonder Woman kicking ass. Nice

 

[kswiston]

There's a lot more negativity in the Baby Driver OT than I was expecting.

 

[MHWilliams]

$36m to go and WW overtakes Guardians 2. Nobody would have thought that two months ago.

Go for the gold, Diana. Prove my ceiling/floor theory correct.

 

[VeryGooster]

Too late for Spidey predictions?

OW: $115m
Domestic: $360m
Worldwide: $880m

 

[Obliterator]

Worth noting for Spidey Predictions the Amazing Spider-Man films skewed very strongly in International markets.

Amazing Spidey 1 made 65% of its Gross Foreign
Amazing Spidey 2 made 71% of its Gross Foreign