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Kotaku: Japan's Nintendo Switch Lines Are Hell

bjork

Member
Just saw 2 in a Wal-Mart near here, as well as classic controllers and docks, and wondered if supply had finally started to really flow. But I guess not?
 

Blam

Member
They did pre-produce the heck out of it pre-release. I mean they almost upped their initial shipment by 50% in the first month alone. It still baffles me that people arent getting this. It's been out there for a long time.

And how do you know about the lack of shortages before it launched?

I mean they should have built their shipments sizes around the hype for the console. Instead of seemingly not producing anywhere close to enough.

shortages? for the Wii U? lol that did not happen

in fact didn't Nintendo buy back the basic bundle from retailers because of how hard it flopped?

Yeah I went and did a quick google search before I mentioned this, and they started buying them back when all the scalpers started returning all of the extra systems they had. But it was for the first week or so that they had shortages.

They did. There was the rumor going around, that the Switch was released in March and not in the Holidays of 2016, because Nintendo wanted to have enough Switchs ready to launch. This is the maximal number of supplies, they could produce without moving the launch even more back.

Honestly I personally would have been fine with a Holiday 2017 release since then they'd have a huge list of games that would be coming out at launch. But well can't change that now.
 

13ruce

Banned
Splatoon 2 (Pearl/Marina/Marie/Callie) show Japan mercy plz. Also bonus content in Yakuza Kiwami is you standing in line for a Switch.
 

Zedark

Member
:/

I know the supply issues aren't their fault but I am worried that eventually people will get fed up and give up.

I personally think demand'll be met to a much better degree before that happens. Nintendo already mentioned they finally expanded their production lines, so more units should be appearing within a month or two, in time for fall and holiday demand.
 
I mean they should have built their shipments sizes around the hype for the console. Instead of seemingly not producing anywhere close to enough.

You realize a lot of the hype happened organically via word of mouth and social media after launch, right?
 
I mean they should have built their shipments sizes around the hype for the console. Instead of seemingly not producing anywhere close to enough.



Yeah I went and did a quick google search before I mentioned this, and they started buying them back when all the scalpers started returning all of the extra systems they had. But it was for the first week or so that they had shortages.

I think they did not expect it to take off as much as it has so soon. I think they thought it would ramp up solidly through the Mario season and into Pokemon next year and build into a success. Obviously that is conjecture but it makes sense. Then again, it could just be entirely the fault of the NAND shortage causing this.
 
It has definitely been easier (but not ideal) to find a Switch in the US in the last month. More instances of Amazon, GameStop.com bundles, and brick and mortar availability. I had thought the supply issues would have been getting better in Japan as well.
 
D

Deleted member 1235

Unconfirmed Member
I don't understand anyone that lines up for anything in 2017
 

phanphare

Banned
Yeah I went and did a quick google search before I mentioned this, and they started buying them back when all the scalpers started returning all of the extra systems they had. But it was for the first week or so that they had shortages.

I don't remember those shortages at all and I was there day 1

what I remember is stock just sitting there not selling so much so that Nintendo bought back the unsold stock
 
The only thing I could say is I get being conservative. I also know this isn't intentional. But let's say a first run production of 5 million would have been fine, right?

What are the chances of not selling through at least 5 million in the life of the console? I doubt there'd be any stock left over even in the worst case scenario. Then when they see that 3 million went through in a month or two, they could start producing more at a moderate pace to help ensure the supply chain was stocked where needed.

But I'm not a supply chain/logistics expert. Nor an expert on marketing and product launches.
 

Blam

Member
I think they did not expect it to take off as much as it has so soon. I think they thought it would ramp up solidly through the Mario season and into Pokemon next year and build into a success. Obviously that is conjecture but it makes sense. Then again, it could just be entirely the fault of the NAND shortage causing this.

Yeah I know I'd only assume the NAND's are the real thing holding back production since apples probably prepping for their iPhone 8 reveal/launch.

You realize a lot of the hype happened organically via word of mouth and social media after launch, right?

I know but a good amount happened before it as well.

I don't remember those shortages at all and I was there day 1

what I remember is stock just sitting there not selling so much so that Nintendo bought back the unsold stock

I mean just setting google back to June 2012-Jan2013 gives me quite a lot of articles saying that the Wii U is gonna have shortages, and was having shortages. But if it's wrong I'll edit my previous message.
 

Sterok

Member
They could ship half a million Switches there on Splatoon 2 week and there would still probably be shortages shortly after.
 

BlueEyedBeast

Neo Member
Coming off of the Wii U, it's not surprising that they started with conservative numbers. It seems like they are mobilizing as fast as they can, considering all of the issues I've heard.
 
I mean they should have built their shipments sizes around the hype for the console. Instead of seemingly not producing anywhere close to enough.

Yup. Instead they completely guessed and did absolutely no market research whatsoever, right? The idea that they didn't build shipment sizes around what they perceived the demand to be is absurd.

Oh, and building on hype? The 3DS' original $250 price tag was based on the hype after E3. Sit on that for a bit
 

Pastry

Banned
The only thing I could say is I get being conservative. I also know this isn't intentional. But let's say a first run production of 5 million would have been fine, right?

What are the chances of not selling through at least 5 million in the life of the console? I doubt there'd be any stock left over even in the worst case scenario. Then when they see that 3 million went through in a month or two, they could start producing more at a moderate pace to help ensure the supply chain was stocked where needed.

But I'm not a supply chain/logistics expert. Nor an expert on marketing and product launches.

Up front costs on 3 million versus 5 million would be a lot. Then you have to consider the cost of holding whatever doesn't sell immediately.
 

10k

Banned
All this revenue Nintendo is missing out on. Sucks for them. I know it's not intentional but some people might get so frustrated with the buying experience that they may just give up by the time stock shortages are addressed.
 

zelas

Member
They really should have seen their low supply issues coming and limited the markets the Switch would be available in. There's nothing to gain from dropping the ball in one of their top markets. Not to mention the effect supply issues are having on software sales.

All this revenue Nintendo is missing out on. Sucks for them. I know it's not intentional but some people might get so frustrated with the buying experience that they may just give up by the time stock shortages are addressed.

It's not just Nintendo. Third parties are being hurt by the limited audience too I'd bet.
 
Given the situation, I think that Nintendo actually told third parties to hide their games for Switch, at least for the time being (look at Dragon Quest XI, for example).

They don't end more people waiting on those lines.

That's also why they haven't announced their whole first party 2018 lineup.
 
They really should have seen their low supply issues coming and limited the markets the Switch would be available in. There's nothing to gain from dropping the ball in one of their top markets. Not to mention the effect supply issues are having on software sales..

And you think they haven't done this? You do realize different regions get drastically different stock allocations, right?
 
http://kotaku.com/japans-nintendo-switch-lines-are-hell-1796975143



This boggles my mind. I almost want Nintendo to shut off supply to the rest of the world just to deal with Japan's supply issues for a month or two. Almost.
What about the rest of the markets that are struggling for supply as well?

IMHO they really should have concentrated supply to Jpan, it is their most vital market, which they need to be successful in as fast as possible.
They need to seize that momentum to the max there to cement Switch as the de facto 3DS replacement.
While Japan is their core base, I disagree with your conclusion. In terms of 3rd party support from both the West and Japan, they need the west to be successful. Nintendo has Japan in the bag in terms of support and lineup. Nintendo has had a much larger issue with the West the past few gens and it being more fickle. There are a significant amount of titles designed to appeal to the Western core gaming market that are never on Nintendo systems. From the AAA titles to the annual sports/shooters, Nintendo always gets shafted. I think it is important to quickly build a base in the west for them.

The best case scenario they can hope for is the annualized shooters/sports from EA and Activision. Some Japanese 3rd parties likely could be persuaded to bring Resident Evil, Kingdom Hearts, Dark Souls or Final Fantasy over to Switch. If they are lucky they could also get Ubisoft and Warner Bros. to throw them some bones. In addition to solid Indie support. Realistically, I think this is the best case scenario Nintendo could pull off and I think it would be enough to better appeal to the Western audience.
 

Zedark

Member
Given the situation, I think that Nintendo actually told third parties to hide their games for Switch, at least for the time being (look at Dragon Quest XI, for example).

They don't end more people waiting on those lines.

That's also why they haven't announced their whole first party 2018 lineup.

Except Kimishima asked third parties to release their games as soon as possible.
 
Honestly speaking, 3000 sales aren't all that much and Nintendo should continue to stockpile switches for the inevitable Metroid Prime 4 launch in NA&EU.
They probably need 2 for each region
 

13ruce

Banned
I don't understand anyone that lines up for anything in 2017

Inflated prices on the internet and webstores are probably all sold out within minutes when restocked. Oh and ofcourse it's a desireable product unlike Wii U.

Nintendo probably misjudged the popularity and after the Switch reveal/presentation it just was too late to ramp up production alot in a fast timeframe. + they also are competin with some parts cuz those are used for mobile phones too.
 

Blam

Member
Yup. Instead they completely guessed and did absolutely no market research whatsoever, right? The idea that they didn't build shipment sizes around what they perceived the demand to be is absurd.

Oh, and building on hype? The 3DS' original $250 price tag was based on the hype after E3. Sit on that for a bit

Not saying that it was a random guess. I was just saying that they lowballed their number for how many they should have produced. Sure they would have never have known how big it was going to be. But I'm only assuming this since they probably didn't want a Wii U v2.
 
This is only going to get worse with Splatoon 2, Mario and retail Minecraft coming out. Not to mention the slew of medium-hitters like Pokken, FE Warriors and Xenoblade.

They'll continue to sell every single one they produce.
 
Up front costs on 3 million versus 5 million would be a lot. Then you have to consider the cost of holding whatever doesn't sell immediately.

I'm sure it costs more to produce more up front like that, but Nintendo has the cash. And like I said, 5 million isn't an unreasonable number since unless absolute calamity, that will sell through relatively quickly. I also don't think they'd have to warehouse them. Ship 1.5-2 million to NA, 1.5-2m to Japan/Asia, and the rest to Europe/Australia, etc.

Their own internal numbers will let them know how to act next I would think.
 

Zedark

Member
This is only going to get worse with Splatoon 2, Mario and retail Minecraft coming out. Not to mention the slew of medium-hitters like Pokken, FE Warriors and Xenoblade.

They'll continue to sell every single one they produce.

Actually, I think this is the zenith for Japan: Splatoon 2 is releasing in a few days, and the other games you mention don't command as strong an appeal in Japan as Splatoon 2 does. For other regions, however, it could very well get even worse if they don't get extra production lines into action (which they said they already had in the interview with Takahashi).
 

Vic

Please help me with my bad english
Actually, I think this is the zenith for Japan: Splatoon 2 is releasing in a few days, and the other games you mention don't command as strong an appeal in Japan as Splatoon 2 does. For other regions, however, it could very well get even worse if they don't get extra production lines into action (which they said they already had in the interview with Takahashi).
Crazy talk. Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Smash, Dragon Quest, multiplayer Mario and Monster Hunter are coming for this platform. This is only the beginning.
 
There is seemingly enough pent up demand in Japan that they could sell roughly 500k-1000k in the week Splatoon 2 comes out if they had the stock.
 
Actually, I think this is the zenith for Japan: Splatoon 2 is releasing in a few days, and the other games you mention don't command as strong an appeal in Japan as Splatoon 2 does. For other regions, however, it could very well get even worse if they don't get extra production lines into action (which they said they already had in the interview with Takahashi).

Unless they're able to satisfy total demand (they won't) for Splatoon on the 21st, these lines won't stop. The continued demand for Splatoon, Zelda, Mario Kart, Arms, etc are only going to compound supply issues when these other titles come out.

As for this being the zenith? Nah. Animal Crossing, Pokémon, Mario Maker are likely coming within the next 18-24 months.
 
Nintendo is not just terrible at manufacturing but also demand management. There are areas in the USA where you can walk up to a lot of Walmart or Target's and just grab a switch from the shelves. In other areas they are long gone with no information on when it might get a restock. Its also crazy that Nintendo keeps sending switches to Walmart and Target, when they are absolutely abysmal about tracking and selling hardware like that - can't order online for in store pickup, can't tell instore inventory most of the time either. Why wouldn't Nintendo send all its USA units just to amazon and gamestop, for now?

If you look on eBay switches are selling for $350-385 (sold listings), which is a tiny profit after eBay (10%) and paypal (2.9%) fees, so it doesn't really make much sense to try and buy one in Minnesota to sell to a guy in California for a $30-40 profit. Heck, on my local craigslist I am seeing switches with a game or two selling for $350-380, and usually you can bargain down 20-30% or more on craigslist when paying with cash. I know a couple people who bought lightly used switches off craigslist and it ended up being cheaper than a new one after factoring in taxes.

Its just weird that Nintendo can't seem to manufacture more and distribute it smarter.
 
Nintendo is not just terrible at manufacturing but also demand management. There are areas in the USA where you can walk up to a lot of Walmart or Target's and just grab a switch from the shelves. In other areas they are long gone with no information on when it might get a restock.

If you look on eBay switches are selling for $350-385 (sold listings), which is a tiny profit after eBay (10%) and paypal (2.9%) fees, so it doesn't really make much sense to try and buy one in Minnesota to sell to a guy in California for a $30-40 profit. Heck, on my local craigslist I am seeing switches with a game or two selling for $350-380, and usually you can bargain down 20-30% or more on craigslist when paying with cash.

Its just weird that Nintendo can't seem to manufacture more and distribute it smarter.

Where are these areas? Proof?
 
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