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[noobie]

Another notes about those results :

- Sony Corporation made an operating income of 157,6 billion yen (1,42 billion dollars) during april-june 2017, that's the new record of the company for any Q1.

- Sony Corporation is targeting an operating income of 500 billion yen (4,53 billion dollars) for the fiscal year. If it succeeds, this would be the second biggest operating income of its history since the 520 billion yen (4,71 billion dollars) in 1998, the year of Gran Turismo and Men in Black (the movie).

Some comments from

Spoiler

non-GAF

analysts

- ”Results are good," said David Dai, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. ”But they're still low-balling their profit outlook, so I would expect to see them continue to beat consensus as well as their own guidance going forward."

- Chief Financial Officer Kenichiro Yoshida defended the conservative outlook, saying ”for one thing, we only had three months in this fiscal year." Sony decided not to raise its guidance due to ”variations of the macro-economic environment, and also cost and demand factors," he said.

Bloomberg Link

They do have Spider-Man: Homecoming and Baby Driver (not sure if they'll make more than MiB) and Gran Turismo Sport (though GT1 sold 10m+).

I dont know why people are mentioning Spider-Man: Homecoming and Baby Driver when both of them are not doing anything exceptional in Box Office?

Spider-Man: Homecoming is still the 4th most successful film in the Spider Man Series. and i doubt if it will rise any further

and Baby Driver is also nothing to write home about. Less than 100 million in US Box Office.

 

[yurinka]

So what do we think? Will it ultimately surpass the PS2?

No, but it should pass PS3 (easily) and PS1 (harder, but still very doable).

Everything until now points that PS4 will have the similar or even better sales than PS2. Nothing indicates it should sell way under PS2 numbers.

As of now PS4 is on track to have same sales than PS2, both have almost exactly the same sales curve when aligned to launch until now there are a number of big seller IPs like GT, GTA, Last of Us, God of War, Dragon Quest, Destiny, Monster Hunter, Spiderman, Kojima's new IP or the new Star Wars by Amy Henning who still have to debut this gen with new entries, and they have a marketing deal with most of the biggest multi IPs.

Since the console market growed a lot since the PS2 era, the pool of previous gen players who still have to jump to current gen is bigger now with PS4 than it was back in the PS2. As seen in Sony's estimations for this FY sales, XBO X and Switch aren't expected to affect PS4 sales. They released PS4 Pro to help making this gen last a bit more. PS4 PC-like HW design will help reducing its costs way faster, so -unlike in PS3- consumer price too when needed. And due its PC-like HW design, it's very likely that PS5 will continue this trend so it's very likely it will be fully BC which means players and devs would continue with PS4 games for a longer period of time / less forced to jump to PS5.

Sony fixed at PS4 launch all the issues they had with PS3, the worldwide consoles market continues growing year after year and everyone predicts it will continue growing. Competition is way weaker than in previous gen, Microsoft is shifting to/ merging their console business with PC and Nintendo to handhelds so they will be less competition in the near future.

IF it beats PS1 then it will beat Wii, PS1 sold more then Wii if the wiki numbers are correct.

Yes, PS1 outsold Wii. Make sure PS4 will sell more than Wii, like PS2 or PS1 did.

 

[Averon]

Another notes about those results :

- Sony Corporation made an operating income of 157,6 billion yen (1,42 billion dollars) during april-june 2017, that's the new record of the company for any Q1.

- Sony Corporation is targeting an operating income of 500 billion yen (4,53 billion dollars) for the fiscal year. If it succeeds, this would be the second biggest operating income of its history since the 520 billion yen (4,71 billion dollars) in 1998, the year of Gran Turismo and Men in Black (the movie).

What a difference a few years make. I remember the height of the PS3 era where Sony was posting near billion dollars loses per quarter with no end in sight.

 

[KORNdoggy]

Sony are fools for thinking they can hit 80 million units by early next year

I don't mean to be rude to their bean counters or whoever it is they have analyzing sales, but they have just barely shipped 63 million units as of last month. How much do they really expect to sell for the rest of this year? Even at the absolute optimistic scenario, they are not selling even 10 million between now and next march, even their most profitable holidays in previous years have only given at most around 5 mil

it doesn't seem likely, but they do have partnerships with destiny 2, battlefront 2, COD WW2, AND Fifa this year alone. as well as GT sport which i'm sure will shift a ton of consoles in EU. then they also have GOW4 and spidey early next year and a partnership with RDR too. they're definitely in a position to achieve those numbers, whether they will or not, i guess we'll find out.

 

[Shin]

I dont know why people are mentioning Spider-Man: Homecoming and Baby Driver when both of them are not doing anything exceptional in Box Office?

Spider-Man: Homecoming is still the 4th most successful film in the Spider Man Series. and i doubt if it will rise any further

and Baby Driver is also nothing to write home about. Less than 100 million in US Box Office.

http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Spider-Man-Homecoming#tab=international
http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/franchise/Men-in-Black#tab=summary
You're counting US only, world wide it seems to have surpassed MiB.

 

[Jarod McChicken]

- Chief Financial Officer Kenichiro Yoshida defended the conservative outlook, saying “for one thing, we only had three months in this fiscal year.” Sony decided not to raise its guidance due to “variations of the macro-economic environment, and also cost and demand factors,” he said.

Speaking of which, they did revise up their forecast a little for the video game segment. They are now expecting 180 billion yen operating income for the fiscal year, vs. 170 billion yen previously, but that's just because they expect the foreign exchange rates to be more favorable.

180 billion yen would made the video game segment the most profitable across whole Sony Corp for the fiscal year.

 

[RamzaIsCool]

Speaking of which, they did revise up their forecast a little for the video game segment. They are now expecting 180 billion yen operating income for the fiscal year, vs. 170 billion yen previously, but that's just because they expect the foreign exchange rates to be more favorable.

180 billion yen would made the video game segment the most profitable across whole Sony Corp for the fiscal year.

So no pricecut this year?

 

[wapplew]

Speaking of which, they did revise up their forecast a little for the video game segment. They are now expecting 180 billion yen operating income for the fiscal year, vs. 170 billion yen previously, but that's just because they expect the foreign exchange rates to be more favorable.

180 billion yen would made the video game segment the most profitable across whole Sony Corp for the fiscal year.

Probably overestimate GT sport.

 

[Inuhanyou]

I see you have your channel stuffing excuses ready to try to back out from eating your hat hehe.

Just remember that you started this thread with saying: "I'm expecting them to maybe just hit 70m by the end of March as is." Channel stuffing 8 million consoles would be unprecedented.

Just for argument's sake, i didn't start the thread off saying that, i said "Sony are fools thinking they can hit 80 mil by early next year"

Around 70 mil is my general prediction, anything higher than around 72 mil i will admit to Sony blowing past my expectations

it doesn't seem likely, but they do have partnerships with destiny 2, battlefront 2, COD WW2, AND Fifa this year alone. as well as GT sport which i'm sure will shift a ton of consoles in EU. then they also have GOW4 and spidey early next year and a partnership with RDR too. they're definitely in a position to achieve those numbers, whether they will or not, i guess we'll find out.

Very true

 

[kraspkibble]

i think it'll beat PS1 and PS3 but not PS2.

 

[Inuhanyou]

PS2 will never be surpassed by any other console...PS4 surpassing that was always a no go. But getting close to PS1 by the time its retired i think is possible depending on several factors

 

[bombshell]

Just for argument's sake, i didn't start the thread off saying that, i said "Sony are fools thinking they can hit 80 mil by early next year"

Around 70 mil is my general prediction, anything higher than around 72 mil i will admit to Sony blowing past my expectations

I'm still dumbfounded how that can be your serious prediction when there's three quarters to account for, one of them being the typical 8-9 million PS4 shipments holiday quarter.

Just shipping 3.3 million per quarter like they just did in a slow quarter will take them way past 70 million already.

 

[Harmondale]

The Jaguar is doing some great work!

 

[Fdkn]

It would take an unprecedent collapse for ps4 to not surpass PS1

It will have comparable sales to ps2 6years in, but it won't be sold for 5 more years like ps2 was.

 

[yurinka]

PS4 peak 2016 basically confirmed.

Considering the games coming this and next year in addition to the current price, recent shifts in console mini exclusives or marketing deals and the possibility of a price drop next FY, I think next FY will be their biggest one.

It will have comparable sales to ps2 6years in, but it won't be sold for 5 more years like ps2 was.

The release of PS4 Pro, Microsoft slowly merging with / shifting to their game business to PC and Nintendo to handhelds, both competitors having a smaller market share, PS4 price cuts to come and easier to make due to PC-like HW design, they are getting console -at least marketing- exclusives of many major IPs, huge IPs still to debut with new games this gen, very high chances to see a full BC PS5, longer and more expensive dev cycles that to release 2 or 3 games of an IP on the same generation to bring their investment back, very likely will help to sell PS4 for 5 years more.

In fact Sony doesn't even have reasons to rush a PS5 launch. For them and most AAA publishers would be better to release PS5 in 2020 or even 2021 due to rising dev costs I mentioned plus successful current gen with a way bigger install base.

PS2 will never be surpassed by any other console...PS4 surpassing that was always a no go. But getting close to PS1 by the time its retired i think is possible depending on several factors

Aligned to launch PS4 is matching PS2 numbers and as I said above there are many hints pointing to PS4 having a long, successful road. Why do you think it PS4 can't at least match PS2?

 

[unknownstranger]

PS4 beating PS3 sales is a lock. PS4 beating PS1 is probably a lock too barring something ridiculous like PS5 coming out before fall 2019.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

That's just my rough estimate. It could be 70 million, could be 72 or a bit more. Again, i'll eat my hat if they can sell 75 million by the end of March. That's basically saying they would sell 12 million units from now to then

They will easily reach that number by the end of their FY.

Now lets talk about what kind of hat do you want to eat? Will you eat it raw or cook and mix it with something else?

 

[ZeoVGM]

What would be the other two? I said consoles specifically, so that doesn't include handhelds. Unless you think it's going to fall between the PSone and Wii, which would be odd.

Handhelds are still consoles. So it would be the third best selling behind the PS2 and DS.

If you narrow it down to just home consoles, then yes, it would be #2.

 

[Inuhanyou]

They will easily reach that number by the end of their FY.

Now lets talk about what kind of hat do you want to eat? Will you eat it raw or cook and mix it with something else?

Don't get too comfortable until all your chickens are hatched, we won't know until March 31st

 

[Kenzodielocke]

They will easily reach that number by the end of their FY.

Now lets talk about what kind of hat do you want to eat? Will you eat it raw or cook and mix it with something else?

He won't eat a hat, he should bet on something more realistic.

 

[LiquidSolid]

Everything until now points that PS4 will have the similar or even better sales than PS2. Nothing indicates it should sell way under PS2 numbers.

The PS4 is still trending above the PS2 but there's a lot of things that worked in the PS2's favour that gave it extremely long legs, something that is unlikely to happen with the PS4 for a variety of reasons, the price in particular. The PS4 is never going to be as dirt cheap as the PS2 was back then, not when it requires a HDD.

Fair enough....again, they can always stuff the channel to make their targets so its not as if predicting shipped numbers makes much sense for me to attempt regardless..

And its not as if i haven't been wrong about their production capacity in the past of course.

Following this argument has been amazing, from one ridiculous comment to the next. This is a thread about Sony's Q1 shipments after a FY where they shipped 20 million, if Sony channel stuff as much as you think they do, why are they only down 6% this year then? Do this mean you think they would've been up YoY if they hadn't channel stuffed last quarter?

 

[Mokubba]

I can't believe the argument in this thread.

It' not that hard to grasp why 18 million sold for the FY is reasonable.

Anyway great job by Sony turning things around.

 

[Dadasch]

I think PS4 will easily hit 120 mio sales but further than that it's just not very realistic. The reason why PS2 was such a hit even after release of PS3 was the lukewarm start of the latter (high price, lack of games etc.). So it basically took sales from PS3 LTD.

That won't happen with PS5.

 

[Omnistalgic]

Also PS2 was $99! That's straight up impulse buy price right there.

Unless Sony has a $150 profitable PS4 in 2020 I don't see how it can get close to PS2 numbers.

 

[FelipeMGM]

Eh...marketing deals...look i'll be straight with you.

I fully get it okay? Its not like these commercial deals won't have an impact. I am not blind to the fact that some of those big games are tied to Sony's marketing strategy and it will give them some success.

But i just think your vastly overplaying how much commercials will do. It didn't do all that much for MS for the deals they have had this gen. I think it will have some sort of impact for Sony's sales, but its impossible to predict what that is.

this is not about commercials, its about bundles

the CoD Blops III 1TB bundle released in November 2015 was still the best selling SKU in the US for like more than a year after its release

these things matter

 

[noobie]

Also PS2 was $99! That's straight up impulse buy price right there.

Unless Sony has a $150 profitable PS4 in 2020 I don't see how it can get close to PS2 numbers.

QFT

 

[Seik]

What a monster! Glad to see it going well continuously like that.

 

[Widge]

That won't happen with PS5.

Depends. The market is pretty weird nowadays, there will be loads of new factors at play.

Will the PS5 play all PS4 games?
Will the PS4(pro) play all PS5 games?
Will the PS5 have any unique titles that won't be available to the PS4?

The thing that stops people pulling the trigger is critical mass.

 

[CLEEK]

I dont know why people are mentioning Spider-Man: Homecoming and Baby Driver when both of them are not doing anything exceptional in Box Office?

Spider-Man: Homecoming is still the 4th most successful film in the Spider Man Series. and i doubt if it will rise any further.

Spider-Man will continue to increase its box office revenue. It went up against some big hitters in July, but August is pretty empty so it should have some good legs to push it well past $300m domestic.

More importantly, it hasn't opened in Japan or China yet. South Korea saw a phenomenal $48m BO, so Japan could do similar. The only reason it hasn't been shown in China yet is because their government are doing their usual summer protectionism and banning Hollywood films from showing in the lucrative summer months to help support local Chinese made films. Once it opens in September, there should be another $100-200m added to the BO.

 

[kyser73]

Everything until now points that PS4 will have the similar or even better sales than PS2. Nothing indicates it should sell way under PS2 numbers.

As of now PS4 is on track to have same sales than PS2, both have almost exactly the same sales curve when aligned to launch until now there are a number of big seller IPs like GT, GTA, Last of Us, God of War, Dragon Quest, Destiny, Monster Hunter, Spiderman, Kojima's new IP or the new Star Wars by Amy Henning who still have to debut this gen with new entries, and they have a marketing deal with most of the biggest multi IPs.

Since the console market growed a lot since the PS2 era, the pool of previous gen players who still have to jump to current gen is bigger now with PS4 than it was back in the PS2. As seen in Sony's estimations for this FY sales, XBO X and Switch aren't expected to affect PS4 sales. They released PS4 Pro to help making this gen last a bit more. PS4 PC-like HW design will help reducing its costs way faster, so -unlike in PS3- consumer price too when needed. And due its PC-like HW design, it's very likely that PS5 will continue this trend so it's very likely it will be fully BC which means players and devs would continue with PS4 games for a longer period of time / less forced to jump to PS5.

Sony fixed at PS4 launch all the issues they had with PS3, the worldwide consoles market continues growing year after year and everyone predicts it will continue growing. Competition is way weaker than in previous gen, Microsoft is shifting to/ merging their console business with PC and Nintendo to handhelds so they will be less competition in the near future.


Yes, PS1 outsold Wii. Make sure PS4 will sell more than Wii, like PS2 or PS1 did.

Sony aren't going to have the PS4 on sale for 11 years.

That's why it won't hit 155m.

I think it will still be on the same sakes curve though, so launch aligned it'll be close, so yes it might has sold 'as well as' at the same point in its lifecycle.

 

[Burbeting]

How much had PS3 sold in this same timeframe?

 

[Loris146]

PS4 peak 2016 basically confirmed.

If we are talking about sold through result this is the best year for PS4 for now( June ).

 

[Fdkn]

Depends. The market is pretty weird nowadays, there will be loads of new factors at play.

Will the PS5 play all PS4 games?
Will the PS4(pro) play all PS5 games?
Will the PS5 have any unique titles that won't be available to the PS4?

The thing that stops people pulling the trigger is critical mass.

Maybe (I hope so)
No
Yes

 

[KORNdoggy]

Sony aren't going to have the PS4 on sale for 11 years.

i think it could. PS3 was sold for 9 years before it was discontinued and that wasn't anywhere near as successful as the PS4. you really can't imagine it being on the market for an extra couple years?

the only real hurdle is price, but it's a hell of a hurdle to get over. sony essentially need a PS4 super slim that can be sold for $100-150. it was that which pushed the PS2 into the stratosphere of sales. it became an impulse buy device that practically anyone could afford. if they can do that with the PS4 then i think they'll easily do as well as the PS2.

 

[DangerMouse]

Nice to see PSVR helped a little, Sony deserve a bit of success for how well supported it's been.

They'll smash those numbers if gran turismo delivers

Yeah, they've pushed PSVR very nicely.

I definitely expect to see GT push systems in Europe too.

 

[LiquidSolid]

i think it could. PS3 was sold for 9 years before it was discontinued and that wasn't anywhere near as successful as the PS4. you really can't imagine it being on the market for an extra couple years?

the only real hurdle is price, but it's a hell of a hurdle to get over. sony essentially need a PS4 super slim that can be sold for $100-150. it was that which pushed the PS2 into the stratosphere of sales. it became an impulse buy device that practically anyone could afford. if they can do that with the PS4 then i think they'll easily do as well as the PS2.

Except last gen went far too long already, major publishers already said that at this start of this gen. There's zero chance they'd not only repeat that but go even longer.

And as I said earlier, the PS4 is never going to be as cheap as the PS2. It doesn't really matter if they have a super slim or not, HDD prices alone will stop it from ever happening.

 

[yurinka]

Sony aren't going to have the PS4 on sale for 11 years.

Why?

PS3 was proportinally less successful, had bigger competition, price cuts were more difficult to make due to alien HW design and due to having less market share had less important console exclusives and marketing deals with top multi IPs. It was released in 2006 and now is only discontinued in Japan and NZ, still alive in NA and EU almost 11 years after release.

Comparing PS4 versus PS3 had many clues that lead us to think Sony would prefer to milk PS4 for a longer period of time, most of them stated in my previous post (you can add more like hardware more designed to use PS Now, etc).

PS3 was sold for 9 years before it was discontinued

Source? According to Wikipedia it was discontinued in Japan 10 years and a half after launch, and in New Zealand a couple of years ago. But I assume it's still alive in all the other countries.

 

[Shin]

the only real hurdle is price, but it's a hell of a hurdle to get over. sony essentially need a PS4 super slim that can be sold for $100-150. it was that which pushed the PS2 into the stratosphere of sales. it became an impulse buy device that practically anyone could afford. if they can do that with the PS4 then i think they'll easily do as well as the PS2.

I don't think that would be possible because PS4 has a lot more memory, a component of which according to various site has only seen price go up.
$199 is the best we can hope for IMO and that won't happen until 2020 or so, they don't need to drop the price unnecessarily if it's not needed.
Even so if they can get it down to $199 there's still a large market for it and worth keeping it in production, after all it's not only US, EU, Asia they are selling to.

 

[sixteen-bit]

Congrats on the success

 

[Real_Madrid]

It must be the most profitable console ever, considering PSN and PS+.

And deserved imo, it's a great console. The messaging and price were also good from the start.
The marketing with #4theplayers was spot on. 2013 was at a time where people thought the mobile market would take consoles down and games would be focused on the casuals.
I'll never forget the gifs on the PS4 launch where people were fighting against each other to get a console.

Spoiler

Now just allow EA Access

 

[BladeoftheImmortal]

I was convinced Sony would introduce the PS5 in 2019. But given the strong PS4 sales, growth in PSN, and the lagging nature of process node shrinks, I see no reason why they would bother for a 2019 launch. The PS4 is doing too well for them to risk upsetting the PS4's momentum. I easily see Sony waiting until 2020. Which means the PS4 would be 7 years old before its successor is launched, the same length of time between the PS3 and PS4. A lot of people complained about the length of last generation, and it looks like we may repeat that length this generation as well.

it's exactly why they made the pro.

 

[AyraSutoraifu]

The PS2 has sold over 155 million units worldwide as of March 31, 2012, Wiki

155 million… just insane…I don't think it will ever be beaten but if the Ps4 manages to do that… then wow.

 

[katsais]

Well deserved. Sony made a hell of a console.

 

[AyraSutoraifu]

it's exactly why they made the pro.

I don't mind at all! Still have so many games to play on it and they keep on coming. A PS5 2020/2021 release is fine by me.

 

[jipewithin]

Wow! Sony really nailed it.

 

[Real_Madrid]

Sony aren't going to have the PS4 on sale for 11 years.

Why not? The PS4 has such a good library and is so online focused that Sony would be crazy not to sell PS+ and digital games for years and years.
The PS3 is different because it had a lot expensive proprietary tech in it.

 

[EvB]

That's super impressive

 

[Gurish]

PS4 beating PS3 sales is a lock. PS4 beating PS1 is probably a lock too barring something ridiculous like PS5 coming out before fall 2019.

That would be really stupid, unless they don't like money they wont release PS5 before 2020 or even 2021 and by than it will surely surpass any other home console besides the PS2.

 

[WillySJ3]

Ps4 is a beast! 100 millions by 2019.

 

[KORNdoggy]

Except last gen went far too long already, major publishers already said that at this start of this gen. There's zero chance they'd not only repeat that but go even longer.

consoles don't stop being sold when a new one is released. the PS3 was sony's current system for 7 years, with an additional 2 years of sales before it was discontinued. so while it had an extra year of "life" it also had a much shorter time before it was discontinued. amounting to only 9-10 years total.

the PS2 was sony's current system for 6 years prior to the PS3's release but had an additional 7 years of sales before it was discontinued. resulting in 13 years of production.

PS4 sales don't seem to be slowing, and they're already 4 years in. they will easily reach year 6 as their current newest system, and that isn't including the length of time it will be sold after the PS5 is released up to it's discontinuation, which should be longer than the PS3's 2 years due to it's popularity.

depending on how these next 2 years go for PS4, i think it's safe to say the PS4 will be in production and selling long after the PS5 is launched.

Source?

release dates.

PS3 released in 2006, but it was mid november, so i don't count that year as a full year. and i see it's discontinued date as being the japanese date which was mid 2017. so i guess 9 and a half years? the releases were a bit all over the place with Ps3 though and it hasn't been discontinued in the US yet so you could read it various ways... but i don't see it being in production for as long as the PS2 was after the PS3 was released. certainly not a for a system that was less successful. the PS4 however i could definitely see being sold long after the PS5 launches.