kitsunelaine
Banned
That sounds like a very scummy way to think. What have you got against probing other players so we have more to read on later? Ending the day early only hurts town.
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Dark Souls Mafia |OT| Git Gud or Die Trying
- Thread starter squidyj
- Start date
That sounds like a very scummy way to think. What have you got against probing other players so we have more to read on later? Ending the day early only hurts town.
hey_monkey
Banned
I'd say we might as well lynch on the second day and see who's dead and what that can give us, if anything.
Trigger, you ended the day "unhappy about the direction we were going in" and now you don't like this.
Why is it easier to figure out the game later, when we have fewer candidates and maybe, if we're lucky, clues from PRs, than it is now?
Trigger, you ended the day "unhappy about the direction we were going in" and now you don't like this.
Why is it easier to figure out the game later, when we have fewer candidates and maybe, if we're lucky, clues from PRs, than it is now?
hey_monkey
Banned
Honestly, what do we lose? We're basically back at d1 - our leads are both dead. We can resurrect the inactive discussion. We can go over the scattered votes. Not that you're doing any of this; you're just pointing fingers. If you have something to discuss, then discuss, but just going in circles isn't helping town either.
As I said d1, I'm happy to lynch or not based on where we are, and I'm happy to turbo or not based on where we are. But I don't see that we have a damn thing right now, really.
What's the connection to how I felt about the Fire lynch and my not wanting to end the day early?
kitsunelaine
Banned
We have a high chance to lose a town player. We lose time where we can gain insight to trip scum up with posts made today, later in the game.
hey_monkey
Banned
The connection is that you are unhappy about things but I'd like to know more about why, about other options, about the direction you'd like to see.
Yes, we'll lose town. We're always going to lose town unless the doctor is alive/gets lucky. If we force discussion when we have nothing to go on, we will probably manufacture a reason to lynch someone, since we'll all be looking so hard for clues, and we'll lose another. And then two more tomorrow after another night kill and lynch, or more if the neutral ignites.
flatearthpandas
Member
This seems like posturing. Three tepid days of discussion with no payoff doesn't seem necessary. If we have a threat of lynch today I don't mind, as I said.
Ignoring Burb completely means we're actually back at square one and don't have anything to go on, we'd basically be at Day 1 again. I mean, we still really don't since there wasn't a whole lot of anything there but are you really faulting me right now for trying?
Contrary to popular belief, it does happen every now and then.
It's impossible to say with only one NK right now. If we get another Day or two in and it's still only High Count players getting murdered then that might be a viable option to consider but it's still way too early for that.
^
I know Kits is disagreeing right now but this would be why you Turbo a No Lynch. We could discuss, sure, but in a Day Phase with no pressure or threat of dying then Scum can just blend into the crowd without having to worry. It's essentially a nothing Day Phase and it would be better to just move on with it and get to the Day where we could lynch.
kitsunelaine
Banned
How do you think there will be no payoff? Every single game I've been in has relied on looking at early actions in context with later actions.
I wasn't scum reading Fireblend. As far as I was concerned, we were heading into a quiet lynch of one of our better players. I voted for Stan, but I don't think anyone was willing to go with my reasoning. I think we should be thinking more about how the votes played out on the first day and how scum's limited communication would affect their voting.
What do you think of my post on the previous page, then? Think we have any merit there or do you propose looking elsewhere in the votes.
flatearthpandas
Member
I mean, I guess. Talking about the vote is going to infinitely more fruitful than guessing scum plans about Burb though. Especially considering they're not even allowed to talk to each other. Hardly back to D1.
oreomunsta
Banned
Yeah, but you usually have the previous day's flip to go off, too.
In this game, we don't have the luxury of looking back on flips from town lynches with a confimation of whether town got it wrong or right. Basically, town gafia will town gafia harder than we normally do
I've shared my math, so hopefully no one still wonders why I'm doing this, but I'm going to push for the turbo.
Vote: No Lynch
StanleyPalmtree
Banned
welp, my gut tells me to still play out the full day in the hopes of getting more material from everyone, but i cant deny that we have practically nothing to go on and very easily could just end up talking in circles with nothing learned.
ehhhhhhhh lets at least make sure we have heard from everyone before we decide.
ehhhhhhhh lets at least make sure we have heard from everyone before we decide.
Christina Mackenzie
Member
Not a good day wake up to. Initially I was surprised at Burbeting being NK but him being one of the more experienced players, I can see the reasoning.
I don't think ending the day early was brought up yesterday but I see it being mentioned. I've thought about it, there's no benefit to town to prolong the day if no one is being lynched. No lynch means no real pressure.
Right now I'm not against the idea of ending this day phase early but honestly I'd want to push for a lynch on both these days and I'm fully aware that we're shooting in the dark. Something about mafia tactics in general saying we should lynch regardless of the scenario.
Will make up my mind when I'm less groggy.
I don't think ending the day early was brought up yesterday but I see it being mentioned. I've thought about it, there's no benefit to town to prolong the day if no one is being lynched. No lynch means no real pressure.
Right now I'm not against the idea of ending this day phase early but honestly I'd want to push for a lynch on both these days and I'm fully aware that we're shooting in the dark. Something about mafia tactics in general saying we should lynch regardless of the scenario.
Will make up my mind when I'm less groggy.
I think it's a good lead. I'd be willing to look more at a Vere or Muffin lynch. Scum can't communicate, so I don't think that all of them ate votes for Firevlend.
kitsunelaine
Banned
What do people think of Monkey?
Lord of Castamere
Member
I don't like this. It's puts the power into the arsonists hand, wherein today, we have the power if we lynch.
The Arsonist can only burrow or ignite. If we lynch today then they have to choose whether to deny us info or burrow. Meaning that they will get less kills over time, but if they don't that means we could hit targets that they already have burrowed, denying them kills.
If I was arsonist, I would lynch every odd day, not wait, or do it every day. That means 1 kill tonight that's 100% scum, and 4 kills tomorrow. Which is chaos for info.
Scenario 1: Lynch every second day after D1. Neutral ignites on third day.
D1: 13 (L, N, B)-> D2: 11 (NL, N, B)-> D3: 10 (L, N, I,I)-> D4: 6 (NL, N, B)-> D5: 5(L, N, I)-> D6: 2(NL,N, B)
Conclusion: Town dies after 5 days
That the scenarios don't take into account multiple variables. That by lynching every day we have a higher chance of hitting the Arsonist, who will only die by lynch, and a higher chance of taking away their burrows. I'm not sure why you would be against hunting the neutral, scum or town. The neutral wants to kill everyone.
I'm just looking really cross-eyed at those who want to no lynch right now. Especially turboed no lynch.
Yeah, I could say, sure we'll do it today, not next even day though, but what if I'm not here next even day? Who will fight for it then? So I'm not doing it, you can find your votes elsewhere.
The Arsonist can only burrow or ignite. If we lynch today then they have to choose whether to deny us info or burrow. Meaning that they will get less kills over time, but if they don't that means we could hit targets that they already have burrowed, denying them kills.
If I was arsonist, I would lynch every odd day, not wait, or do it every day. That means 1 kill tonight that's 100% scum, and 4 kills tomorrow. Which is chaos for info.
Scenario 1: Lynch every second day after D1. Neutral ignites on third day.
D1: 13 (L, N, B)-> D2: 11 (NL, N, B)-> D3: 10 (L, N, I,I)-> D4: 6 (NL, N, B)-> D5: 5(L, N, I)-> D6: 2(NL,N, B)
Conclusion: Town dies after 5 days
That the scenarios don't take into account multiple variables. That by lynching every day we have a higher chance of hitting the Arsonist, who will only die by lynch, and a higher chance of taking away their burrows. I'm not sure why you would be against hunting the neutral, scum or town. The neutral wants to kill everyone.
I'm just looking really cross-eyed at those who want to no lynch right now. Especially turboed no lynch.
Yeah, I could say, sure we'll do it today, not next even day though, but what if I'm not here next even day? Who will fight for it then? So I'm not doing it, you can find your votes elsewhere.
hey_monkey
Banned
I think you raise a good point, LoC, because it's true the arsonist can't be NKed, and that does ruin the number scenarios.
But it puts us back at shooting into the dark. Trigger, why Vere and Muffin but not Nin?
But it puts us back at shooting into the dark. Trigger, why Vere and Muffin but not Nin?
YesNOnoNOYes
Member
DAY 2 CURRENT VOTE TALLY:
No Lynch (1)
oreomunsta 614
Sawneeks (1)
flatearthpandas 566
rac (1)
Lord of Castamere 554
No active vote for Day 2: Christina Mackenzie, CornBurrito, hey_monkey, isaacnukem, kitsunelaine, Muffin1611, nin1000, rac, Sawneeks, StanleyPalmtree, Trigger, Verelios
Day 2 Postcount: Christina Mackenzie 1, CornBurrito 0, flatearthpandas 7, hey_monkey 19, isaacnukem 1, kitsunelaine 7, Lord of Castamere 6, Muffin1611 5, nin1000 0, oreomunsta 8, rac 3, Sawneeks 8, StanleyPalmtree 3, Trigger 6, Verelios 6
Day 2 ends:
8 votes for majority
No Lynch (1)
oreomunsta 614
Sawneeks (1)
flatearthpandas 566
rac (1)
Lord of Castamere 554
No active vote for Day 2: Christina Mackenzie, CornBurrito, hey_monkey, isaacnukem, kitsunelaine, Muffin1611, nin1000, rac, Sawneeks, StanleyPalmtree, Trigger, Verelios
Day 2 Postcount: Christina Mackenzie 1, CornBurrito 0, flatearthpandas 7, hey_monkey 19, isaacnukem 1, kitsunelaine 7, Lord of Castamere 6, Muffin1611 5, nin1000 0, oreomunsta 8, rac 3, Sawneeks 8, StanleyPalmtree 3, Trigger 6, Verelios 6
Day 2 ends:
8 votes for majority
flatearthpandas
Member
But the variables not accounted for are all positive for town. Worst case is being mapped. Here's the worst case for your suggestion:
D1: 13 (L, N, B) -> D2: 11 (L, N, B) -> D3: 9 (L, N, I) -> D4: 5 (L, N, B) -> D5: 3 (L, N, I) -> D6: 0
Now town is completely dead day 6, but they've effectively lost day 5 because they can't get a vote off on scum without cooperation of the neutral. Town had 5 lynches.
In the scenario you posted, town is completely dead day 7, effectively lost day 6. Town would not NL on day 6 if they wanted any chance at all of winning, so they get 4 lynches.
As we talked about yesterday, town only loses one opportunity to lynch if we NL every other day in a worst case scenario. Although, with your neutral timing ignites specifically to interfere with town flip information, I can see a point in just lynching every day. First convincing argument for me so far.
However, I would think it's in the neutral's best interest not to create chaos. You may have noticed that this scenario is also the worst case scenario for the neutral. On the last day after town eats it, scum lynches the neutral and wins.
D1: 13 (L, N, B)-> D2: 11 (NL, N, B)-> D3: 10 (L, N, I,I)-> D4: 6 (NL, N, B)-> D5: 5(L, N, I)-> D6: 2(L,N, B) -> D7: 0 (L, x, x) Scum wins D7
D1: 13 (L, N, B) -> D2: 11 (L, N, B) -> D3: 9 (L, N, I) -> D4: 5 (L, N, B) -> D5: 3 (L, N, I) -> D6: 0 (L, x, x) Scum wins D6
So, swing and a miss. Anything different than this scenario is only good for town. Doctor saves. Mafia + Arsonist on same target. Mafia ignited. Burrowed targets lynched. Scum lynched.
Don't fuck with the info, neutral. Our worst case is also yours, you need mafia dead or you lose.
Vote: No Lynch
Christina Mackenzie
Member
I don't trust her.
kitsunelaine
Banned
Can you elaborate on your reasons?
As much as I share this sentiment of going into a no lynch today, I don't share the thought of turboing it.
I agree that we are back to D1 again, with no clues or hints to go about.
But in my opinion cutting the day short like this just doesn't feel right.
I mean pr roles won't be giving out obvious hints and we can force everyone and I mean everyone this time to at least take a stance.
Like others have said the votes were spread evenly which makes its hard to pinpoint who is at fault here, but those who did not vote should be ashamed! Even I you know that you won't be there at day's end at least put a meaningful vote down!
And of course I know that I was one of the main voices that went after burb. I acknowledge that and I am ready to face the consequences.
Will eat breakfast now.
I agree that we are back to D1 again, with no clues or hints to go about.
But in my opinion cutting the day short like this just doesn't feel right.
I mean pr roles won't be giving out obvious hints and we can force everyone and I mean everyone this time to at least take a stance.
Like others have said the votes were spread evenly which makes its hard to pinpoint who is at fault here, but those who did not vote should be ashamed! Even I you know that you won't be there at day's end at least put a meaningful vote down!
And of course I know that I was one of the main voices that went after burb. I acknowledge that and I am ready to face the consequences.
Will eat breakfast now.
Oh, regarding Rac.
I have the feeling that you would be better as an observant instead of a player. Since you said yourself that you would have felt uncomfortable with a vote on someone. I just take away from this statement aswell as the way you play that you love to observe the game but don't want to take any action in it.
I have the feeling that you would be better as an observant instead of a player. Since you said yourself that you would have felt uncomfortable with a vote on someone. I just take away from this statement aswell as the way you play that you love to observe the game but don't want to take any action in it.
Christina Mackenzie
Member
More of a gut feeling. So far her actions have been pro-town but I'm still wary.
Christina Mackenzie
Member
You realize of course that if no one is getting lynched today, there's no way to genuinely pressure someone? Your questions and votes are meaningless.
Yep it sucks in my opinion. It will sound flip flopping from my side but I would rather see someone go today.
To further elaborate on my thoughts.
I was hesitant on the turbo since discussion is all we have ( besides the voting power ).
Like CM Pointed out, if we go no lynch discussion will be meaningless, to a certain degree, and we come back to the turbo lol.
I now realize that I am talking circles.
I was hesitant on the turbo since discussion is all we have ( besides the voting power ).
Like CM Pointed out, if we go no lynch discussion will be meaningless, to a certain degree, and we come back to the turbo lol.
I now realize that I am talking circles.
I feel pretty confident that Monkey is town. I don't think she's done anything to be suspicious so far.
It's the timing of their votes. I imagine scum is spread out amongst the votes, and I'm just mulling the idea that one of the later votes is scum trying to bandwagon.
I share the thought, but what about the possibility of scum just parking the votes on players that were not even in the face of getting lynched.
Since the votes were spread around pretty evenly it will make the pin pointing of scum voting pretty much impossible.
flatearthpandas
Member
Lol, just realized it doesn't actually matter when the neutral ignites. Our info is borked regardless. Feeling pretty dumb right now, I blame the hangover. So actually I don't much care what we do. Maybe actually lean towards lynch every day.
Vote: Sawneeks
LoC is my top town.
Oreo has been hustling in a good way even if we were facing the wrong direction.
Monkey too but I don't get quite the same good vibes. Not bad ones though.
Saw is doing the same as she did in LB. Curtains of flak in which she can entertain and encourage the useless and even ridiculous amidst rational topics.
Vote: Sawneeks
LoC is my top town.
Oreo has been hustling in a good way even if we were facing the wrong direction.
Monkey too but I don't get quite the same good vibes. Not bad ones though.
Saw is doing the same as she did in LB. Curtains of flak in which she can entertain and encourage the useless and even ridiculous amidst rational topics.
StanleyPalmtree
Banned
Vote: nin1000
oreomunsta
Banned
There is, but it just has to be done on a different day. The pressure is still on when we all know someone is getting lynched on a certain day
hey_monkey
Banned
Woke up with a swollen throat so it may take me a bit to get rolling with my usual vim and vigor. :/ If I'm quieter today, it's not you, it's me.
FEP, did you vote anyone else between your Sawneeks votes or do you just really want us to know you're voting for her? Stan, is that a joke vote on nin or a serious vote?
FEP, did you vote anyone else between your Sawneeks votes or do you just really want us to know you're voting for her? Stan, is that a joke vote on nin or a serious vote?
StanleyPalmtree
Banned
total joke.
flatearthpandas
Member
I voted No Lynch with Oreo and then finally realized how much the neutral messes with our info, which was the main benefit for me in no lynching.
hey_monkey
Banned
So this is interesting, because he labeled you town as well, though aggressive, in his incomplete reads list. You know, the one where he said he was familiar with undelivered promises as scum, things like... undelivered reads.
That post I linked there was interesting, in fact, because it lays out Burb as a strong contributor, not backing down, useful info throughout, etc., and it also started the idea that Burb and Fireblend were a team. It sprang from that.
I've been uncertain about how to feel on LoC. Seems so confident, striking hard, standing firm on positions, definitely against the idea of no lynch, to the point of suspecting anyone who supported it. Very hard on the low posters, which is NAI, but will he stay there? I'm also uncertain how to feel about "backup lynches." Policy lynches. In this game? I don't know if I'm convinced.
This is interesting, too:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=248490827
"them"
Well, we only killed Fireblend. Agender identifier or slip? Not calling it a smoking gun but I've been burned for not paying attention to slips in the past so I'm just laying it down in case.
-------------
I don't know that I think LoC is anti-town. He's definitely moving things around. His confidence is jarring to me. But that not from FEP to LoC that echoed LoC's nod to FEP day one got me looking.
hey_monkey
Banned
People who have not yet checked in (still under 24 hours in):
CornBurrito
One post only:
isaacnukem
---------------------
re: No Lynch and pressure - this is nonsense. A no lynch vote today doesn't mean we won't ever lynch again. It just means a delay. But it looks like y'all are determined to bull full steam ahead into killing, despite about half y'all doing nothing to move discussion, so my guess is we'll be lynching someone today. RIP in advance if it's more town.
CornBurrito
One post only:
isaacnukem
---------------------
re: No Lynch and pressure - this is nonsense. A no lynch vote today doesn't mean we won't ever lynch again. It just means a delay. But it looks like y'all are determined to bull full steam ahead into killing, despite about half y'all doing nothing to move discussion, so my guess is we'll be lynching someone today. RIP in advance if it's more town.
flatearthpandas
Member
I've been pretty bullish on the no lynch and as I said, loc was the first to give a good argument against it imo. Ended up convincing me, when I was headed somewhere I know think was not necessarily in our best interests
CM said that if we all agree on a no lynch our discussion has no pressure at all.
I never got the impression that he implied to no lynch on every coming day
Full steam into killing, where did you get the impression that we are FULL STEAM into killing.
FEP and Stan placed one vote.
About not moving any discussion. I am more of a player who reacts. Sorry of that bothers you so much.
Lord of Castamere
Member
I actually have an exchange on day 1 from Fep and Spt that I really don't like, didn't catch it until yesterday, but I also haven't posted it yet. I'll go into into later,I'm on my phone right now. It was a tad flip floppy, and faux confrontational. For some reason, my brain's set on finding fake fights between scum. I feel like that's something they'd do in this game particularly. Can't explain why.
Also that link you posted is dead. Im assuming it refers to my first post today though, and in that, I took partial responsibility for killing Burb. In the sense, that if attention hadn't been brought to him, he'd still be alive. Which I stand by.
I did more or less finish my read list, as far as I needed too, yesterday. The problem is that most of the people left on it I didn't have strong feelings about.
Trust me or not, I'm not talking today. I do plan to look through Day 1 again, already started. Hopefully, all of that all amounts to something.
hey_monkey
Banned
Full steam into killing doesn't refer to the current votes on the table. It refers to the idea that people seem to be backing off the idea of no lynch as a viable alternative. I know it's weird for the meta but I am just really wary of lynching just to lynch in this game.
As for play style, I don't care how you play. It's not about you, nin. I wasn't even thinking of you. I don't know why you're so interested in crawling up my ass this game, but could you back the hell up? Direct your aggro somewhere productive.
As for play style, I don't care how you play. It's not about you, nin. I wasn't even thinking of you. I don't know why you're so interested in crawling up my ass this game, but could you back the hell up? Direct your aggro somewhere productive.
Sorry but I don't even know where this agressive response comes from.
I had and don't have any intention into crawling up your rear. I will respond to whoever I think is worth responding to.
No need for that kind of words though.
hey_monkey
Banned
hah, it sure was - I linked where I was quoting instead of quoting. I warned y'all I'm sick so I might be all foggy! here's the quote:
So let me parse what you're saying - you absolutely think that scum would take out our next target? I want to hear more.
And it's not that I don't trust you. It's just where I'm starting and I don't think you're quite as solid as FEP does. I don't think anyone is right now but if we're gonna end up lynching I'm gonna try to be thorough.
flatearthpandas
Member
He was batting for corn and i was antagonistic about it. I kept on Stan but seeing as we didn't flip corn there's not much to be done with Stan. Corn was better at the end of the day, but i was asleep at that point. Would have still much preferred that flip to fire, but then i was town reading fire well before he was a candidate.
Muffin1611
Banned
So, if I understand everyone so far correctly, no lynch would buy more time for town generally, but runs the risk of the neutral igniting on specific days which would bork our info we get. Then again, it might be in the neutrals best interest not to garner that much attention and they would end up in a position where they'd get lynched by scum.
Is that basically it? Because then No Lynch would seem like the best option to me. I'm open to discuss if we should turbo it or use the day more, though.
Is that basically it? Because then No Lynch would seem like the best option to me. I'm open to discuss if we should turbo it or use the day more, though.
flatearthpandas
Member
Basically, neutral acting is going to muddy the water. It is in the neutral's best interest to find scum, but cooperating with town to the point we can have clear info means not ignoring, which is not in their best interest. So basically no lynch buys is a day, costs us a lynch, and actually doesn't clarify our info that much because we won't know whether scum deaths were ignited or lynched so we won't know what is what.