AdventureRacing
Member
I think Switch will outsell 3ds but not ps4. Ps4 will outsell the ps1 and wii worldwide.
This is what I think will happen. It'll be hard to tell until next year when we see switch with more supply.
I think Switch will outsell 3ds but not ps4. Ps4 will outsell the ps1 and wii worldwide.
Honestly, this is what i'm most excited about. It seems like the success of Splatoon 1 pulled Nintendo out of a bit of a rut and has encouraged them as a company to push the limits of their own creativity. Its should be really amazing to see what they have in store once all of those games are ready to show the general public
Have we ever heard any numbers on ARMS sales? I kinda feel like that game didn't hit (no pun intended) the numbers Nintendo was hoping for.
1.18 million as of June 30th. We may get updated numbers through September on the 30th of this month.
ARMS is likely only one of multiple new IP in the works from Nintendo though.
GAF is not an indication of anything in the real worldI guess all I have to go on is PS3 eventually getting real close to 360. Xbox360 had a huge lead, PS3 had really poor word of mouth and media outlets lambasted it, but it still kept making gains as insane as it seemed.
Switch is a cultural phenomenon, and it can't stay on the shelves. It's getting many of the same AAA games as PS4, plus first party games that are going to be talked about for the rest of our lives. If neogaf is any indication, people actually FAVOR third party games on the experience on switch; whether it be portability or gyro aim---it's giving gamers a whole new way to fall in love with games again, and that's incredibly meaningful.
It can't have great launch year software because in all the other threads the rhetoric is that Switch owners are starving for games.
BTW, regarding the lifetime sales, I think you are in the ballpark.
If the bolded happens, I absolutely agree with you that it could. I'm just not convinced yet. Maybe I'm too pessimistic but I don't think it will happen.
If it does get strong 3rd party support (including from the West). I think it has a great chance.
Still have lotsa tests to pass. /s
I don't think it's unreasonable to think that the Switch has a good possibility of outselling the 3DS lifetime. It's had a much better start overall.
I don't consider the 3DS to be a success, or an abject failure. By all metrics it was not a great success story for the company, and we can prove that in many ways objectively, as mentioned in previous posts. For example, Nintendo posted 4 straight years of deep annual losses after it launched(obviously this was due in part to the WiiU as well). It occupies a space similar to the PS3, in that it ended up moving a good deal of units and software, but it cratered the company in because it did not perform to their expectations, and cost them a great deal in getting the product to that point.
Regarding Switch sales, that was not the point of my posts, so I think you're misunderstanding. Having said that, since we are on this subject, if you're only measuring success in unit sales I have no idea if the Switch will do better, but it's probable based on it's comparative launch success and current trajectory. I do however think it is very fair to say that if Nintendo is able to sell 50m-60m+ units without having to slash the price like they did with the 3DS, then it will be a vastly more successful device for them.
You cant possibly believe this to be true? As of middle of July the PS4 was just short of 19 million in the US alone and Worldwide its closing in on 60 million units sold.
The switch is selling well because its a new console in the middle of a generation with some pretty great launch year software... Switch lifetime sales will probably sit in the ballpark of 50-60million sold in total maybe getting close to 70-80million but it is assuredly not able to catch up any time soon or ever to PS4 sales to date.
It can't have great launch year software because in all the other threads the rhetoric is that Switch owners are starving for games.
BTW, regarding the lifetime sales, I think you are in the ballpark.
If the bolded happens, I absolutely agree with you that it could. I'm just not convinced yet. Maybe I'm too pessimistic but I don't think it will happen.
If it does get strong 3rd party support (including from the West). I think it has a great chance.
Still have lotsa tests to pass. /s
We really do my have anywhere near enough information on its long term to make calls to 2021.I think what it is, is me not recognizing it's full potential as of right now of the Switch. But indeed, any company in that situation wouldn't see it as a success. But, it had great support and eked out almost 70 million units in a mobile dominated era.. that's a win man. Even if they don't think so.
If the Switch hits around those numbers it'll be a success as well. If it does more, even better. But looking forward, they already have a zelda, Mario and Mario Kart, I ask what else is going to push another 50-60 million units over the next 3-4 years. Other than their stunning 1st party.
Just my opinion, but I think it'll settle around 70 million in 2020-2021.
When is Nintendo Q3 earnings announcement anyway?
ETA on the September NPD thread?
We really do my have anywhere near enough information on its long term to make calls to 2021.
Maybe it bombs out in year 3, like the Wii did in year 5? Or earlier? NOBODY predicted the Wii U would do as badly as it did, I predicted massive failure at 30 million-ish! Less than 14 million is catastrophic failure.
Maybe it powers on based on the same evergreens and sequels like the DS/PS2?
Maybe it becomes the new unprecedented record holder?
We just have no idea. 40-50 million is likely the floor now, but its far too early to rule in or out any number above 40 million.
Kirby, Yoshi and Fire Emblem apparently. Metroid Prime 4 is in development.Honestly we need to start seeing what they have lined up for 2018 when it comes to software... I have a feeling that with this super strong release lineup weve had with Zelda, Splatoon, Arms, Mario, and Xeno 2 theyve completely front loaded the first year and honestly as others have said we need to see some new IPs and some new ideas for the 2018 season otherwise Nintendo will solely be relying on the 2017 software to sell it for 2018...
I mean what else do we have loaded and in development from House of Nintendo that didnt already drop this year for switch or is incoming before years end... what ports are we sitting on besides Mario Maker and Smash 4...
If they dont show some software for 2018 I feel like they will be in the same trouble that MS is in. That or it could fall into Vita territory if they dont announce more first party for 2018 it could be lots of Indies and JRPGs in between first party titles.
The 30th of this month I believe.
There is any chance they release Mario numbers early?
For me, the switch is too bulky/heavy/not secure enough for what I want out of a handheld.
I want to open the lid, and pull out my handheld to play picross for an hour in a small form factor.
Switch feels like playing an IPAD. It sucks for what I want.
What.....Did you actually hold one?
Switch already has amazing western 3rd party support and it's only going to grow from here. This is why I think it has a substantial shot at upsetting PS4 in lifetime sales.
To be fair, these were likely all very far in development, and people were not forward thinking. I don't think they expected switch to sell this well.I'm not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but "amazing" isn't the adjective I would use to describe the western third party support at this point.
Bethesda has been supporting, but EA has just put on the contractually obligated FIFA version. NBA being on it is very nice, but I wouldn't say much beyond that.
Look at the big fall games bypassing the Switch this fall.
Mordor
AC
Destiny
Battlefront
CoD
South Park
Missing all those is keeping it from having "amazing" support at this point
We really do my have anywhere near enough information on its long term to make calls to 2021.
Maybe it bombs out in year 3, like the Wii did in year 5? Or earlier? NOBODY predicted the Wii U would do as badly as it did, I predicted massive failure at 30 million-ish! Less than 14 million is catastrophic failure.
Maybe it powers on based on the same evergreens and sequels like the DS/PS2?
Maybe it becomes the new unprecedented record holder?
We just have no idea. 40-50 million is likely the floor now, but its far too early to rule in or out any number above 40 million.
To be fair, these were likely all very far in development, and people were not forward thinking. I don't think they expected switch to sell this well.
I think next year will be more telling
Have we ever heard any numbers on ARMS sales? I kinda feel like that game didn't hit (no pun intended) the numbers Nintendo was hoping for.
Honestly we need to start seeing what they have lined up for 2018 when it comes to software... I have a feeling that with this super strong release lineup we've had with Zelda, Splatoon, Arms, Mario, and Xeno 2 they've completely front loaded the first year and honestly as others have said we need to see some new IPs and some new ideas for the 2018 season otherwise Nintendo will solely be relying on the 2017 software to sell it for 2018...
I mean what else do we have loaded and in development from House of Nintendo that didn't already drop this year for switch or is incoming before years end... what ports are we sitting on besides Mario Maker and Smash 4...
If they don't show some software for 2018 I feel like they will be in the same trouble that MS is in. That or it could fall into Vita territory if they don't announce more first party for 2018 it could be lots of Indies and JRPGs in between first party titles.
All I'm saying that as of right now, it's not "amazing" western support. It's not. To argue differently would be a bit biased/blinded IMO.To be fair, these were likely all very far in development, and people were not forward thinking. I don't think they expected switch to sell this well.
I think next year will be more telling
What a turn around compared to the Wii U.
Kirby, Yoshi and Fire Emblem apparently. Metroid Prime 4 is in development.
There's a big but here; Nintendo these days keep their cards close to the chest and I'm pretty sure they'll have more to announce. Odyssey was shown earlier this year, same goes for Xenoblade 2. They'll have the stuff ready when they need too acompanied by loads of indies, Travis Strikes Again, Wolfenstein II, Project Octopath... the only hazy and weird part will be traditional third parties. If they have stuff, it won't be ready untill Q4 2018 or beyond.
I imagine itll likely hit 2M eventually. Seemed to have decent legs in comparison to other fighting games.Have we ever heard any numbers on ARMS sales? I kinda feel like that game didn't hit (no pun intended) the numbers Nintendo was hoping for.
No name or anything; just that one was comingWas a main line fire emblem announced? I mustve missed that... FE Warriors comes out this Friday which is why I kept it as 2017 didnt realize we had a main FE announced as well.
For 2018, don't we already know of Kirby, Yoshi and maybe Metroid Prime?
Throw in a potential port or two that you mentioned and the first party line-up is fine.
Whether or not it reaches (or goes beyond your projections for lifetime sales) the PS4 will all come down to the 3rd party support IMO.
If MP4 was close to ready for next year, we would have seen footage at E3. At least for Pokémon, TPC had the excuse of not wanting to up-stage US/UM.For 2018, don't we already know of Kirby, Yoshi and maybe Metroid Prime?
Throw in a potential port or two that you mentioned and the first party line-up is fine.
Whether or not it reaches (or goes beyond your projections for lifetime sales) the PS4 will all come down to the 3rd party support IMO.
All I'm saying that as of right now, it's not "amazing" western support. It's not. To argue differently would be a bit biased/blinded IMO.
I agree with you next year will be more telling.
Really surprised Pokken didnt make the top 10. Hopefully this doesnt derail the possibility of a sequel.
Happy to see that Mario Rabbids did well though. Excellent game all around and well deserved.
If MP4 was close to ready for next year, we would have seen footage at E3. At least for Pokémon, TPC had the excuse of not wanting to up-stage US/UM.
To be fair, these were likely all very far in development, and people were not forward thinking. I don't think they expected switch to sell this well.
I think next year will be more telling
His point is, at the present time, western AAA support isn't really "amazing" and he's right.
It's good support by Nintendo standards though and certainly a positive sign for the future.
The Switch will get more and more support, publishers won't ignore a popular platform. They don't have any loyalty, they go where the potential cash is.
However the Switch isn't going to be home to the likes of Destiny etc in my opinion.....
The Switch will get more and more support, publishers won't ignore a popular platform. They don't have any loyalty, they go where the potential cash is.
However the Switch isn't going to be home to the likes of Destiny etc in my opinion.....
I don't think so. Wii and DS sold 90% on first party games. Sure there were a few decent 'hardcore' third party efforts at launch like RE4 and COD3 and Tiger Woods but after third parties shat the bed with Madden Babiez and light gun cheapos, it was all on Nintendo, and they did with with New Super Mario Bros, Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Mario Kart, Nintendogs, Brain Training, Mario Galaxy, Pokemon, Animal Crossing etc.Throw in a potential port or two that you mentioned and the first party line-up is fine.
Whether or not it reaches (or goes beyond your projections for lifetime sales) the PS4 will all come down to the 3rd party support IMO.
I think the demo was enough for a lot of people. Its the ugliest first party game on switch and a low effort port too which is why I skippedReally surprised Pokken didnt make the top 10. Hopefully this doesnt derail the possibility of a sequel.
Happy to see that Mario Rabbids did well though. Excellent game all around and well deserved.
You do realize you have just posted the conundrum of why many of us are skeptical about the amount of support the switch will get from third parties
Developers also have only so many resources to produce games and also to port Games to the platform with the weakest hardware
it'll be the same old story for a nintendo platform: third parties will release the test games. if they do well, they'll release more low budget test games! if they don't sell well, they pull support for the switch.
in no scenario does switch get multiplatform releases of big third party games day and date with ps4/xbone/pc
The Switch will get more and more support, publishers won't ignore a popular platform. They don't have any loyalty, they go where the potential cash is.
However the Switch isn't going to be home to the likes of Destiny etc in my opinion.....
I think whats really going to be the deciding factor is sales of third party games. If the few multi-platform games there are so far don't sell well, then there's no real incentive for anyone else to bring their games over. I'm really hoping Doom, Wolfenstein, Skyrim and Fifa sell big numbers.
I know Fifa has done terribly so far, but maybe just maybe the holidays might get a few more sales...
Ah nearly forgot about L.A Noire, I'm hoping sales of that game potentially entice Rockstar to bring over GTA V, the Switch should handle that with equivalent performance to the 360 surely..
3 of those 4 titles are from one company... and they are all old ports that have already more then made back their development costs. Aside from Wolfenstein 2. But honestly if these titles don't do well this could easily be in aside from Indie and JRPG support.
I'm aware that the majority of the big "AAA" are from Bethesda but I think that how those titles perform can have a major effect on what other developers/publishers do.
If say Doom and Wolfenstein do well it could act as an incentive for the likes of Activision to bring a Call of Duty game over for example, although the Wii and Wii U had Call of Duty games, and it didn't make much of a difference.
I'm personally still not convinced that a multi-platform game can do as well as a Nintendo exclusive, but time will tell.
I like my Switch but looking at the Eshop - as someone who isn't a fan of the retro style indie games- is a bit depressing. It is starting to look a little "shovelware delight" on there, and I want more for the Switch than retro sidescroller and Nintendo.
Switch already has amazing western 3rd party support and it's only going to grow from here. This is why I think it has a substantial shot at upsetting PS4 in lifetime sales.
I don't think anyone believes that and I would wonder when the last time any non Nintendo title sold as much as a Mario, Zelda, or MK on a Nintendo platform if I had to reckon a guess id say probably only Minecraft assuredly.
And yeah it all depends on Skyrim and Doom but honestly I gotta question millions of people (what they are hoping it sells) buying ports of these two titles for $60 each... I think that's the biggest crutch for them to overcome these titles are releasing at $60 dollars on Switch when Doom can be gotten for $15-20 and Skyrim with all DLC for $25-30. The fact that they are not pricing them for 40-50 is gonna cost some sales.
DUDE! No joke I was doing the same thing last night was hoping to see some videos on eshop of FE Warriors I really don't like how like 25% of games have videos and the rest are terrible screenshots and also they do a shit job describing the games as well. Couple sentences to describe the game where other shops give a couple paragraphs. And yeah lots of Neogeo and random indies not even big indies... im honestly fearing Vita levels of shovelware with indies, JRPGs and the N first parties!
Amazing by what standards? WiiU standards? It's abysmal compared to other two consoles and PC standards.