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Media Create Sales: Week 6, 2012 (Feb 06 - Feb 12)

duckroll

Member
If publishers adopt a wait and see approach, so will consumers, and the combination of both could be fatal.

I don't think all publishers are adopting a wait and see approach though. I think the reality of the market in Japan today shows that publishers of the biggest PSP games have already made their primary decisions.

Capcom:
MHP3 (PSP) -> MH4 (3DS)

Konami:
MGS PW (PSP) -> Next Kojima Game (PS3/360/Vita)

Square Enix:
KH BbS (PSP) -> KH3D (3DS)


The ones who are doing a wait and see approach seem to be Sega (Phantasy Star Portable, Project Diva) and Bandai Namco (God Eater, Tales of the World, Gundam). They're putting their smaller portable franchises on both platforms, or neither, or a different spinoff to test the market (Project Diva). They don't seem to have really decided where they will settle the successor of their PSP franchises yet, but the bigger players definitely have.
 

Z3M0G

Member
Vita needs a Final Fantasy title, STAT!

Pump out a quick FFV remake with new 2D art... like the previous PSP remakes. It's next in line, isn't it???

Edit: Or maybe a 2D remake of FFIII?
 

Kenka

Member
What would be the possibility to see say, a game like One Piece Musou being developed on 3DS rather than PS3 ? Can the shift in platform for high-profile hardcore games happen before the WiiU launches ?

How effort is needed to scale games from 720p/8 GB of data to 240p/2 GB of data ?
 
What would be the possibility to see say, a game like One Piece Musou being developed on 3DS rather than PS3 ? Can the shift in platform for high-profile hardcore games happen before the WiiU launches ?

How effort is needed to scale games from 720p/8 GB of data to 240p/2 GB of data ?
Over 9000.

..
.
..
wat

Mini-succesor?

You mean competitor. DS steadily outsold PSP for almost all of it's lifetime. It started to decline and fall off when the 3DS approached. However, I wouldn't say DS owners graduated to PSP owners.
Third party development-wise. DS owners might not have graduated to PSP owners, but new owners picked PSP over the DS, and thats what matters much more. Everyone basically had a DS already, and third parties were basically all over the PSP by that point, so if you wanted anything else besides Nintendo games you needed a PSP.
 
Right. PSP always had third party support, maybe not to the degree of DS, but it still had games that either wasn't possible on the DS, or sold shitty, or would have sold shitty had it been made on the DS instead. It always had its own niche of "non-ugly 3D games". MH kicked start the PSP as the mini successor to the DS.

Mini-succesor?

You mean competitor. DS steadily outsold PSP for almost all of it's lifetime. It started to decline and fall off when the 3DS approached. However, I wouldn't say DS owners graduated to PSP owners.
 

muu

Member
Sony NEEDS to announce some more system sellers. Tell Activision to hurry the fuck up with CoD Vita, same with Ubisoft for Assassin's Creed Vita. BioShock Vita could be a system seller as well.

Would be unwise to assume any of those companies will bring their A-Game to the vita. If all you wanted was a Call of Duty, Wii and DS had their iterations as well.

BTW, I'm saddened that no one on this thread even mentioned Sumioni. May have bombed but let's not pretend it doesn't even exist.
 
I think the lack of appealing games hurts it more. The entire line-up for the Vita at the moment doesn't really seem low quality, and the impressives indicate that the games are far from bad, and offer both good production values as well as good quality design. The problem is that the entire package doesn't really appeal to the market at large. You can have tons quality games, but if they're not appealing, you still won't sell.

Isn't this an issue of price and the fact that people are becoming more accustomed to pick up games that don't cost $30-40?
 

stilgar

Member
Vita needs a Final Fantasy title, STAT!

Pump out a quick FFV remake with new 2D art... like the previous PSP remakes. It's next in line, isn't it???

Edit: Or maybe a 2D remake of FFIII?


The 35 otakus desperately waiting for it would totally buy a Vita, indeed;


FF VII remake, on the other hand...could be a fun answer to OOT 3DS.
 

duckroll

Member
What would be the possibility to see say, a game like One Piece Musou being developed on 3DS rather than PS3 ? Can the shift in platform for high-profile hardcore games happen before the WiiU launches ?

How effort is needed to scale games from 720p/8 GB of data to 240p/2 GB of data ?

I'm not really sure what you're asking here. Is it possible to make a Musou game on the 3DS? Sure, why not? There are already Musou or Musou-like games on the 3DS, and on the Vita, and on the PSP, and on the DS even. They were even possible on the PS1!

But of course that doesn't mean anything. If you're asking if it will sell as well, the answer is probably no. People play games for very different reasons and it is factually impossible to expect that every single sort of experience can be appealing to the audience they're meant for on any sort of platform.
 

Bruno MB

Member
Very insightful reading.

6 years ago Resident Evil: Revelations, Monster Hunter Tri G, Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater 3D or Kingdom Hearts 3D: Dream Drop Distance (a more proper Kingdom Hearts experience than KH 358/2 Days) would have been released on PSP instead of NDS.

That scenario created 2 different and healthy ecosystems for both consoles.

I really hope PS Vita manages to find its way.
 

duckroll

Member
Isn't this an issue of price and the fact that people are becoming more accustomed to pick up games that don't cost $30-40?

Not really? 3DS games cost just as much if not more than Vita games. PS3 games cost like 80-90 dollars in Japan now. That doesn't stop them from selling. As long as the game is appealing to the audience. I don't see what game prices have to do with this at all. It's all about how appealing the actual game is and whether anyone really wants to buy it.
 
I just took a nap, woke up and became randomly aware of the fact that Final Fantasy III for the DS is the second best selling FF game of the last generation. What the heck is going on in my head.
 

DCharlie

Banned
That's not really true. Capcom would take offensive was just letting their secrets out of the bag, willy nilly. We'll see what happens.

Rumour has it that this Vita MH will just be a straight port of MHP3. If that's the case, then that makes a lot of sense to me when considering the simultaneous MH3G and MH4 on 3DS. As discussed earlier in the thread, giving the Vita it's own original MH would just create confusion amongst the fans and unnecessarily split up the userbase, which could be detrimental to the series popularity. Releasing a straight port would, on the other hand, be a great way for Capcom to make a quick buck off the Monster Hunter starved Vita owners whilst still sending the message that they're not committing themselves to the platform, they're just throwing out a bone.


arrhghghghgh this again ;) ;) ;)

you know, Monster Hunter fans have been able to juggle there being THREE different Monster Hunters at one time (you could argue more, but lets say Frontier, Portable, and numbered-main to keep it simple). If there were to be two on different handhelds, i don't think they'll have much of a problem figuring it out and i don't think it'll split the franchise either. People -know- the games are different, all that'll happen is crazy monster hunter fans will buy both and milder fans who have one or the other machine will get that version. ;)

The PSP had it's own MH different from MH3. The only thing that has happened is that MH3 has migrated over to the 3DS rather than stay on the Wii. That's it. It's blown peoples minds but when the Vita game comes i expect everyone to revert back to "derrr, as if this wasn't obvious!"

Vita will get MH3rdP G if anything at this point.

Also - i don't see what proof their is that the MH user base is migrating to the 3DS. MH3G has sold well, but that's still a low % of the PSP MH base i'd have thought. MH4 (if no Vita/PSP version shows up) will be when the rush starts - for now, i don't believe it's happening in quite the exodus people seem to think it's happening.
 

manueldelalas

Time Traveler
arrhghghghgh this again ;) ;) ;)

you know, Monster Hunter fans have been able to juggle there being THREE different Monster Hunters at one time (you could argue more, but lets say Frontier, Portable, and numbered-main to keep it simple). If there were to be two on different handhelds, i don't think they'll have much of a problem figuring it out and i don't think it'll split the franchise either. People -know- the games are different, all that'll happen is crazy monster hunter fans will buy both and milder fans who have one or the other machine will get that version. ;)

The PSP had it's own MH different from MH3. The only thing that has happened is that MH3 has migrated over to the 3DS rather than stay on the Wii. That's it. It's blown peoples minds but when the Vita game comes i expect everyone to revert back to "derrr, as if this wasn't obvious!"

Vita will get MH3rdP G if anything at this point.

Also - i don't see what proof their is that the MH user base is migrating to the 3DS. MH3G has sold well, but that's still a low % of the PSP MH base i'd have thought. MH4 (if no Vita/PSP version shows up) will be when the rush starts - for now, i don't believe it's happening in quite the exodus people seem to think it's happening.
lol, just stop.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Also - i don't see what proof their is that the MH user base is migrating to the 3DS. MH3G has sold well, but that's still a low % of the PSP MH base i'd have thought. MH4 (if no Vita/PSP version shows up) will be when the rush starts - for now, i don't believe it's happening in quite the exodus people seem to think it's happening.

This late edit reminds of DCharlie we know.
 
Konami:
MGS PW (PSP) -> Next Kojima Game (PS3/360/Vita)

Is that the one with crap alpha screenshot? Is that Vita confirmed as well?

Isn't this an issue of price and the fact that people are becoming more accustomed to pick up games that don't cost $30-40?

No. Games in Japan are much more expensive, yet they sell.

arrhghghghgh this again ;) ;) ;)

you know, Monster Hunter fans have been able to juggle there being THREE different Monster Hunters at one time (you could argue more, but lets say Frontier, Portable, and numbered-main to keep it simple). If there were to be two on different handhelds, i don't think they'll have much of a problem figuring it out and i don't think it'll split the franchise either. People -know- the games are different, all that'll happen is crazy monster hunter fans will buy both and milder fans who have one or the other machine will get that version. ;)

The PSP had it's own MH different from MH3. The only thing that has happened is that MH3 has migrated over to the 3DS rather than stay on the Wii. That's it. It's blown peoples minds but when the Vita game comes i expect everyone to revert back to "derrr, as if this wasn't obvious!"

Vita will get MH3rdP G if anything at this point.

Also - i don't see what proof their is that the MH user base is migrating to the 3DS. MH3G has sold well, but that's still a low % of the PSP MH base i'd have thought. MH4 (if no Vita/PSP version shows up) will be when the rush starts - for now, i don't believe it's happening in quite the exodus people seem to think it's happening.

Agree with the whole post. The reason MH did not release on the DS was most likely low processing power. Why else keep every new game on the PSP, when the evidence was clear DS is selling like crazy?

3DS is more powerful than DS, it got MH. Vita will get it as well, Capcom is in this for money. The very fact that Nintendo is not screaming EXCLUSIVE for MHTriG and MH4 means that Capcom has the power to decide where the game gets published i.e. not exclusive.
 
By the way, opinion piece or not, that Nikkei bit on Vita development going to 3DS is considerably more credible than either of those Nikkei Trendy rumors from earlier this year, since it (a) was published in Nikkei proper, and (b) is clearly attributed to a specific source, rather than just being speculation. Just sayin'.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Would be unwise to assume any of those companies will bring their A-Game to the vita. If all you wanted was a Call of Duty, Wii and DS had their iterations as well.

BTW, I'm saddened that no one on this thread even mentioned Sumioni. May have bombed but let's not pretend it doesn't even exist.
CoD, Assassins Creed and Bioshock are already confirmed for the Vita. They could of course end up being waporvare in the end, but it is too early to say much about that.
 

duckroll

Member
Is that the one with crap alpha screenshot? Is that Vita confirmed as well?

Kojima has confirmed that moving forward, their console games will be multiplatform, and for his own game in particular he has said that it will support transfarring, which means a Vita port will have to exist.
 

DrWong

Member
Media Create Sales: Week 6, 2012 (Feb 06 - Feb 12)

10./15. [WII] Just Dance Wii <ACT> (Nintendo) {2011.10.13} (¥5.800) - 7.896 / 534.946 (+1%)
16./18. [WII] Wii Sports Resort with Remote Plus # <SPT> (Nintendo) {2010.11.11} (¥5.800) - 5.867 / 867.985 (+4%)
17./20. [WII] Mario Kart Wii <RCE> (Nintendo) {2008.04.10} (¥5.800) - 5.527 / 3.505.695 (+9%)

3 games up in the top 20.

Black magic ...?
 

DCharlie

Banned
By the way, opinion piece or not, that Nikkei bit on Vita development going to 3DS is considerably more credible than either of those Nikkei Trendy rumors from earlier this year, since it (a) was published in Nikkei proper, and (b) is clearly attributed to a specific source, rather than just being speculation. Just sayin'.

.... #headinhands

Can someone make this stop?

Here is what the article was basically saying in that regard :

Hi i'm a games reporter - recently a source working at a publisher that i can't name said "we canceled one of our Vita games and moved it to 3ds". You know, when you think about it Japans big publishers must be looking at 4m sales of 3DS and the 500k of vita and will be seeing how attractive the 3DS is! #Vitadoomed

Basically : <whispers> INDUSTRY SOURCES! </whispers> followed by personal speculation != any credibility at all.
 

Bruno MB

Member
Media Create Sales: Week 6, 2012 (Feb 06 - Feb 12)

10./15. [WII] Just Dance Wii <ACT> (Nintendo) {2011.10.13} (¥5.800) - 7.896 / 534.946 (+1%)
16./18. [WII] Wii Sports Resort with Remote Plus # <SPT> (Nintendo) {2010.11.11} (¥5.800) - 5.867 / 867.985 (+4%)
17./20. [WII] Mario Kart Wii <RCE> (Nintendo) {2008.04.10} (¥5.800) - 5.527 / 3.505.695 (+9%)

3 games up in the top 20.

Black magic ...?



Had the Wii been in its prime, Just Dance would have become into the second third-party million seller game on a Nintendo console system since SFC era.
 
Not really? 3DS games cost just as much if not more than Vita games. PS3 games cost like 80-90 dollars in Japan now. That doesn't stop them from selling. As long as the game is appealing to the audience. I don't see what game prices have to do with this at all. It's all about how appealing the actual game is and whether anyone really wants to buy it.

I apologize because I am not familiar with the Japanese market. Is mobile gaming as popular in Japan as it is in the states? The reason that I ask is if it is, is it possible that people are less inclined to spend $250 + games when they already have two handhelds to use for gaming? Again, just curious because it seems that although anecdotal is one of the reasons why many folks that I know are not yet interested in the Vita.
 

Maedhros

Member
This is an interesting comment, because it also highlights another reason why the PSP went on to do so well in Japan after the terrible early years. The PSP was in the similar situation where it was an awkward product to develop for simply because the PS2 had a much wider user base and there's no reason to make a really solid PSP game if you could make it a PS2 game instead.

Then what happened is the PS3 came into the market. Support for the PS2 started to wind down because the PS3 was pushed really hard as the successor. But PS3 games are more expensive to develop for, and many Japanese developers were interested in finding a way to retain that sort of develop cost and environment while still delivering such games to the market. So these naturally became PSP games.

Just show how terrible the japanese market is... =/
 

DCharlie

Banned
Don't facepalm. If we are going to take one seriously, take the other as well, its from the same institution.

no one is taking ANY of them seriously i hope. I don't think the Nikkei "THAR BE A VITA MONSTER HUNTER!" is the catalyst for people thinking there's potentially going to be a Vita Monster Hunter.
 

Takao

Banned
I GLADLY EAT CROW I BELIEVE IN YOU TOYAMA I BELIEVE

I apologize because I am not familiar with the Japanese market. Is mobile gaming as popular in Japan as it is in the states? The reason that I ask is if it is, is it possible that people are less inclined to spend $250 + games when they already have two handhelds to use for gaming? Again, just curious because it seems that although anecdotal is one of the reasons why many folks that I know are not yet interested in the Vita.

Mobile gaming is very popular in Japan. It has been so for a longer period of time compared to the west as well.

Japanese companies are usually very good in making sure there is a distinction between their mobile efforts, and the efforts they put on handhelds so there is an interest in both styles.
 

manueldelalas

Time Traveler
lol - stop what exactly?
The MH on VITA thing.

You are basically defending the idea that a 5 minute port of MH will be on VITA and hasn't been announced yet because of "secret game that'll save the handheld" reason.

I mean, give it a rest, there's no need for every single sales thread to have this crap. MH is not announced on VITA, there are absolutely no signs of any Capcom intention of releasing a game of that series on VITA.

All we have are the pre-TGS rumors which using logic (which you like so much) were by someone who had early access to the footage but poor japanese understanding; that explains the 4 Warriors of Light 2 rumor (which is a game with similar artstyle but a completely new franchise) and the MH port, because MHP3 WAS shown on TGS, but it was just the PSP version running on VITA.

There is no point defending this, at the point, unless you have all your trust in the french Sony representatives (which really know nothing), there is no MH game for VITA, period. And let's not talk about the "but this is Capcom" theory. Also, you are talking about a company (Sony) that is happy to show game titles of games that haven't even started development (RE PSP, COD VITA, FFX VITA, Kojima's super secret game, UMVC3 VITA from Capcom themselves, etc etc etc), there is absolutely no reason why a MH game wouldn't be announced at this time.

If it's announced, I'll be happy to say that I was wrong in believing it wouldn't be and recognizing I'm a fake time traveler, if it's not you'll post the same shit you posted after MH sold way more than your 800k LTD prediction (NEVER FORGET!, LOL!), but let's stop this baseless speculation in every single sales thread.
 
I doubt anything will turn on up Vita until after MH4, it at all.

The thing is, once MH4 is out as a 3DS exclusive, it's all over. At that point we'll be looking at a 3+ million selling title that's built up a rock-solid install base and Capcom will have no reason whatsoever to rock the boat because those people will keep buying future MHs on the same platform. If Capcom were having second thoughts about committing the franchise to 3DS, the time to act on it would be right now.

Its easier than you think. Western developers are opposites of Japanese devs, they're multiplatform so all you need is a machine that has enough power to be ported to.

You say this, but how many major Western PS360 releases for late 2012 can you name that have a Vita SKU confirmed?

3DS is more powerful than DS, it got MH. Vita will get it as well, Capcom is in this for money.

As we've hashed out many, many times before, the way to make the most money is to migrate a massive userbase onto a single platform and target them relentlessly with new releases, exactly the way Capcom did with the PSP.
 

Gaborn

Member
Even if they can afford it, is it worth it?

I think this is exactly the right question. What is gained from cutting the price right now? I mean, sure you're going to push some more hardware units, but has there been any indication that it's going to move significant software if you go that route? Realistically it's never going to catch the 3DS so really, this is all about profitability and finding software title that build the userbase and ultimately that attract people who may not have bought a Vita without that title, but having done so will invest in other software.

A hardware price cut for Vita misses the point, it was pretty much locked into second place the moment Nintendo went with their price cut, stole MH, and released 3D Land and Mario Kart. Now the game is more profitability and building the userbase again and finding titles to make up for the loss of MH's huge sales.
 
I really can't think of any one game that would "save Vita". Monster Hunter 4 is already confirmed for 3DS, and MH3G came out on 3DS. Even if MH4 is a multiplatform title, or they announce MH3 Vita those aren't going to make people buy a Vita for them. The only one game that could potential be a gigaton for sales would be Final Fantasy 7 Remake, and even then it'd have to be an exclusive and not multiplatform on 360/PS3 (which seems to be the trend).
 

DCharlie

Banned
stop what exactly?

The MH on VITA thing.

You are basically defending the idea that a 5 minute port of MH will be on VITA and hasn't been announced yet because of "secret game that'll save the handheld" reason.

I mean, give it a rest, there's no need for every single sales thread to have this crap. MH is not announced on VITA, there are absolutely no signs of any Capcom intention of releasing a game of that series on VITA.

All we have are the pre-TGS rumors which using logic (which you like so much) were by someone who had early access to the footage but poor japanese understanding; that explains the 4 Warriors of Light 2 rumor (which is a game with similar artstyle but a completely new franchise) and the MH port, because MHP3 WAS shown on TGS, but it was just the PSP version running on VITA.

There is no point defending this, at the point, unless you have all your trust in the french Sony representatives (which really know nothing), there is no MH game for VITA, period. And let's not talk about the "but this is Capcom" theory. Also, you are talking about a company (Sony) that is happy to show game titles of games that haven't even started development (RE PSP, COD VITA, FFX VITA, Kojima's super secret game, UMVC3 VITA from Capcom themselves, etc etc etc), there is absolutely no reason why a MH game wouldn't be announced at this time.

If it's announced, I'll be happy to say that I was wrong in believing it wouldn't be and recognizing I'm a fake time traveler, if it's not you'll post the same shit you posted after MH sold way more than your 800k LTD prediction (NEVER FORGET!, LOL!), but let's stop this baseless speculation in every single sales thread

how about i'll post what the fuck i want and you can ignore it?

there's a monster hunter discussion that started WAY before my involvement, so i'll happily get involved in that and say what i -think- may or may not happen. Again, don't like it? Just skip it.
 

Maedhros

Member
The MH on VITA thing.

You are basically defending the idea that a 5 minute port of MH will be on VITA and hasn't been announced yet because of "secret game that'll save the handheld" reason.

I mean, give it a rest, there's no need for every single sales thread to have this crap. MH is not announced on VITA, there are absolutely no signs of any Capcom intention of releasing a game of that series on VITA.

All we have are the pre-TGS rumors which using logic (which you like so much) were by someone who had early access to the footage but poor japanese understanding; that explains the 4 Warriors of Light 2 rumor (which is a game with similar artstyle but a completely new franchise) and the MH port, because MHP3 WAS shown on TGS, but it was just the PSP version running on VITA.

There is no point defending this, at the point, unless you have all your trust in the french Sony representatives (which really know nothing), there is no MH game for VITA, period. And let's not talk about the "but this is Capcom" theory. Also, you are talking about a company (Sony) that is happy to show game titles of games that haven't even started development (RE PSP, COD VITA, FFX VITA, Kojima's super secret game, UMVC3 VITA from Capcom themselves, etc etc etc), there is absolutely no reason why a MH game wouldn't be announced at this time.

If it's announced, I'll be happy to say that I was wrong in believing it wouldn't be and recognizing I'm a fake time traveler, if it's not you'll post the same shit you posted after MH sold way more than your 800k LTD prediction (NEVER FORGET!, LOL!), but let's stop this baseless speculation in every single sales thread.

There's a reason to say that Vita is dead every single thread, though... right?
 

duckroll

Member
All we have are the pre-TGS rumors which using logic (which you like so much) were by someone who had early access to the footage but poor japanese understanding;

No, this is completely inaccurate. They were Japanese rumors from someone who definitely had intimate knowledge of things publishers were preparing to announce for the next few months. They extend beyond TGS, and are definitely not from someone who has "poor Japanese understanding". I read the original leak, I would know.
 

faridmon

Member
You know, I also think that a MH game will be on Vita. If its going to be as successful as MHP3G and MH4, that I do not know. But Sony and Capcom have to be stupid to let that train run away that easily.
 

Jokeropia

Member
EZ6IM.jpg
 

manueldelalas

Time Traveler
There's a reason to say that Vita is dead every single thread, though... right?
Of course there is, there is the official data for that, the actual facts, you know?

I mean, this is a thread about japanese sales, and here we discuss japanese sales, if a new hardware is doing badly one can talk about that piece of data.
 

DCharlie

Banned
u know, I also think that a MH game will be on Vita. If its going to be as successful as MHP3G and MH4, that I do not know. But Sony and Capcom have to be stupid to let that train run away that easily.

well, i've also posted previously reasons why it may well be in Capcom's interest to -not- go with Vita but i like the idea of being Captain Vita ! #newcape.

but i do concede that given MH3G is out of the Sales picture (i mean, still selling but not the hot topic) - it's got nothing to do with sales this week, so i shouldn't continue the previous discussion from a few pages back.
 

manueldelalas

Time Traveler
No, this is completely inaccurate. They were Japanese rumors from someone who definitely had intimate knowledge of things publishers were preparing to announce for the next few months. They extend beyond TGS, and are definitely not from someone who has "poor Japanese understanding". I read the original leak, I would know.
But how do you explain the 4 Warrios of Light 2 thing? I mean, looking at the footage you would think it is such a game, because of really similar artstyle, but if you understood japanese, you could read the title that says Bravely Default and understand it is not a game from that series.

There's also the MHP3 on Vita thing, the game was shown, but it was the PSP game running on the Vita.

That rumor was so random and unexpected, that one would think the leaker (or the one who told the leaker) would have seen videos but not read the game titles.
 

muu

Member
CoD, Assassins Creed and Bioshock are already confirmed for the Vita. They could of course end up being waporvare in the end, but it is too early to say much about that.

I'm not saying that they're not coming, just saying that it'd be silly at this point to expect the same caliber of games as their $60 counterparts. Western devs would be the last ones I'd count on to save your handheld.
 

DECK'ARD

The Amiga Brotherhood
You know, I also think that a MH game will be on Vita. If its going to be as successful as MHP3G and MH4, that I do not know. But Sony and Capcom have to be stupid to let that train run away that easily.

Nintendo would also be stupid to let them. If it turns up it will be after the damage is done, which is MH4. I'd be very surprised to see anything on Vita before then.

And I think Nintendo's strategy for this goes all the way back to the Tri deal when 3DS was in development. Securing the more important next handheld one at the same as the console one, and Capcom being able to sell the same game on 2 platforms as well as using it as the base for 4.

Throw in Nintendo's help with marketing as well and you have a very sweet deal for Capcom indeed, especially when you factor in a siginificant Vita release would also mean higher development costs which have always been a factor with MH.
 
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