I think the popularity of any Call of Duty title is immensely dependent on the quality of the online infrastructure that the console offers.
Many people buy COD only to play multiplayer with their friends on LIVE and PSN. I don't know if people have enough goodwill for Nintendo left in that specific area after the mediocre online offerings that the Wii had.
I have confidence that Nintendo Network will be a huge leap forward, but I think people will just stick with what they know works, and where all their friends are located.
I agree with this. Nintendo can't expect majority of people gaming on Xbox Live or PSN with huge friends lists to simply move over. The Upad isn't going to be that big of a draw to those crowds, that they will give up consoles they already game on with large friends lists, especially when the game experience is unlikely to differ a great deal.
I recall many years ago, one of the original reasons I purchased a 360 was just to maintain co-op and online games with my friends list. I had a PS3 at the time too, but only purchased multiplats on 360 simply due to my friends and Xbox Live. A close friend in another city had a similar experience, however, with PS3 as most of his friends owned that.
That said, I really believe people -- especially "hardcore" gamers who frequent sites like IGN and GAF are truly overlooking how many people owned Wii's, simply because many of these owners never even touch the internet outside of checking their email or checking out amazon or something. And these aren't old 70 years of age people, these are young adults.
Wii U is targeted as the next "Wii" to that group, and I can foresee many people "upgrading" to an HD system
There are tons and tons of people (more so than people who are into games passionately) I know who are adults, professionals, and love gaming but simply don't have the time in regular life to regularly check up with fansites or follow gaming news. Many of these people have games on their iPhones yes but they do indeed enjoy playing Wii Sports or Mario Party, or Just Dance on their home console with the odd dose of Madden or FIFA. And they are Wii Only owners. To them, they are interested in adding a true HD console to their new theatre set ups but have never bothered to invest in a PS3 or 360, because they were able to get their gaming fix with Wii. These are the people who only own 5 or 6 games and they are games like New Super Mario Bros Wii, Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Mario Kart, Guitar Hero, Just Dance, Madden or FIFA and Maybe a COD.
For them, the Wii U will be a system to get. Those who havent purchased a Kinect 360 bundle yet will jump on the Wii U board. These are a "general public" of young adult gamers. Too busy with professional jobs and social life, with the only exposure to games coming from randomly walking into a Wal Mart or Best Buy. I can see the Wii U appealing to them.
That said, these people won't be interested in Darksiders II by and large. Si I dont expect the Wii U version of some multiplat games to be high sellers relative to how the console sells. I think it will sell fine, but it will be more to new HD console owners and Nintendo fans primarily. Very few current HD system owners will switch brands.