I don't think Sony would launch a new console next year with a possibility of having TLOU, GOWA, Quantic Dream new game, TLG next year.
Sony's new management team set a three-year plan for the PlayStation business built around the PS3,Vita and PSN.Sony will target an operating income margin of 8% in its Game business in the fiscal year ending March 31,2015 (FY 2014).They will be ready to launch a new console during that particular fiscal year.
Morover,the PS3 turned five,just a few weeks ago, in its most important region,the PAL market (around 27 million PS3s sold), which never cared about HD consoles until the PS3 showed up,and it's bigger and more price sensitive than the US market.
In contrast,the Xbox 360 is about to turn seven in its biggest market.What does it mean? the US market will shrink faster from now on.Furthermore,despite the phenomenal,and probably unsustainable, Xbox 360 sales in the US over the last couple of years,the PS3 is the most shipped console since January 2010,including handhelds,so the pressure is on for Microsoft.
PS4 would really launch a full season before xbox?
Time will tell,but I'd say zero chance.
I respect what Mr. Pachter has to say, however I think it's a gut feeling that comes with the american mindset that the PS3 is a failure and the Xbox 360 is amazing, thus Sony's last hope to get back in the game is the mythical first-mover advantage.
Sony is sticking to its guns.Over the last few months,SCE bosses have stated repeatedly that they will be the last to make an announcement and launch a new product.Those guys have lots of games under development for the PS3 slated for 2013. They know that the console is still expensive,particularly for PAL consumers,and they're well aware of the curse of the first-mover when it comes to the home console market since 1988.