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Your predictions for The Big Three at the end of The Next Generation.

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meta4

Junior Member
Curious where you are getting your worldwide numbers from. Link please.

From the press releases some while back. I think UC3 alone did 5 million ( out of the 17 for the franchise) this was from a press release a while back I think. GT also did nearly 8 million as per the Sony press release.

Nintendo released their financials with Zelda doing 3.3 well into 2012 and Kirby doing just over a million into 2012. DKC too did around GOW or slightly less as well as of 2012. I Need to google and look for them.
 
I suspect the coming generation will resemble the latter portion of this gen in terms of sales:

1st - Sony
2nd - Microsoft
3rd - Nintendo

Sony will be first, but won't completely dominate. They will gain back some ground in the US but I believe Microsoft will slightly edge them out in that region with Sony holding a dominant position in all other regions. They won't make the same mistakes they made with the ps3 regarding price, launch date, and software. They will launch far stronger than they did this gen and Microsoft should be very concerned about that and not take them for granted.

Nintendo will fall off significantly from last gen. Wii U seems like a bigger mistake in design than the 3DS and won't have the casual appeal that made the wii a huge success. It will mostly sell to a slightly larger userbase than what the GameCube had, which was mostly dedicated Nintendo fans.

Microsoft will do well in the US on account of their Xbox live userbase, but I suspect if Sony offers a service that competes on features, but for free, this advantage will attenuate as the gen progresses. I dont see them making any headway in Japan or Europe.
 

Syriel

Member
Does it matter? The 360 has proprietary media and it didn't hurt them. Even their headset jack is not standard. I can't use my iphone/android/etc headset, it has to be the 1.8 not the 2.5 size everything else is.

Chargeable? that's extra.

Hell they had a pay wall and it was considered worth it even thought the pc community told ms to screw themselves.

Sony would be dead if it released the 360 as their own hardware based on how people hate proprietary and non standards.

Xbox 360 uses DVD media. That is proprietary how?

The headset jack on the Xbox 360 controller is a standard 2.5mm jack. That is the same jack that was standard on cell phones at the time the system was released. You can use any 2.5mm phone headset on the 360. Works just fine. That is proprietary how?

Out of the box, the 360 controllers support AA batteries. You're free to use alkaline or rechargeable batteries. Unlike the PS3 controller, you don't have to take the thing apart just to replace a dead battery. That is proprietary how?
 
None of the franchises you listed on the Sony side have even half the draw as Nintendo's.

Sony would be the barely profitable cyst.

I don't believe what I posted is ever gonna happen, I'm just replying to people who said that in general. But I prefer Sony's franchises to Nintendo's, not so much any games from this generation, but definitely from the PS1 and PS2 days.

What I believe is that Nintendo is gonna focus on reviving one of their dead franchises every year (starting right from the launch with Pikmin 3) and continuing on with any franchise they see as being a money-maker (kinda like Metroid Prime), focusing on the Wii series of games once more, and helping third-party companies make Wii U-exclusive stuff for their games (like Arkham City or Ninja Gaiden). In the end, the Wii U is probably just gonna be used for Smash Bros.

Sony is gonna take it easy this gen and probably drop out of the handheld market. I can see Sony teaming up with Apple (if they don't release a console themselves) or something.

Microsoft is gonna be just like this gen I bet. Their focus is to make their "video game" console a multi-media device without focusing on games at all. I could see them buying third party companies (like what they did with Rare).

I personally don't see Valve or Apple releasing a console. Don't really understand why Valve would, and Apple just doesn't seem like they care enough. I guess Sony was in the same place of Apple at one point, so maybe it something might occur that will kickstart Apple to join this industry (Nintendo should release a direct where they ridicule the iPad). I personally think the Ouya is gonna die very quickly, but that's kinda baseless.

I hope Sony's next strategy is to focus on first party games and making games cheaper (I wish for a world where games are $40 on release).
 

Raoh

Member
Xbox 360 uses DVD media. That is proprietary how?

The headset jack on the Xbox 360 controller is a standard 2.5mm jack. That is the same jack that was standard on cell phones at the time the system was released. You can use any 2.5mm phone headset on the 360. Works just fine. That is proprietary how?

Out of the box, the 360 controllers support AA batteries. You're free to use alkaline or rechargeable batteries. Unlike the PS3 controller, you don't have to take the thing apart just to replace a dead battery. That is proprietary how?

802643b.jpg
which is just
external-laptop-harddrive-2.jpg
but without the ms software.

DS3 is rechargeable out the box, i like to move forward, batteries suck, charge and play kit (sold separately) is the better option for 360 controller over batteries.

If your talking dvd vs blu ray and expect a new format you didn't follow the fact that sony wasn't alone in pushing for a next gen media and ms was originally on board but got pissy because the blu ray group didn't want to use ms codecs and ui.

Blu Ray is the last physical media with new versions only differing in storage size.

You really think sony is going to start a media format war and try to get movie studios to switch to it again? LOL
 

sjboi

Member
I think that Nintendo will "win" the generation with the WiiU. Consumers will remember how the Wii was sold out for years, and therefore the WiiU will have a blockbuster first year. By the time the other consoles launch, the WiiU will be a much more attractive option: cheaper, with far more killer apps, particularly in the casual market. Next holiday season they will release Smash Bros. to combat Sony/MS' new consoles. By that time they will have released a plethora of system-selling software; Mario, Wii Fit 2, Wii Sports 2, Smash, along with big 3rd party releases such as COD.

Overall I see the WiiU selling the same as the Wii, maybe slightly less. They will have a strong hold on Japan.

I expect Microsoft to use this opportunity to really put their foot on Sony's throat. Nintendo will have Japan, and MS will go all out to capture the American market. I expect the next XBox to be even more succesful than the 360.

Sony is in big trouble. With Nintendo dominating Japan and Nintendo/MS dominating America, I expect the PS4 to sell significantly less than the PS3. They simply cannot out-spend Microsoft. The writing is already on the wall for Vita. By the end of the generation, I think Sony will have sold off a majority of their gaming division to other companies, and there won't be a PS5 in the traditional sense.
 
I think it's still way to early to say anything about next gen.

We don't even know what approaches Sony and MS are going with. We can see Nintendo's. Which seems like generalized confusion.

This gen though? In America MS is in a great position going into next gen. Sony is in a middling position, and Nintendo is a ???. They sold the most units, but they've also seen the most drastic fall off. From a firm first to well... first for now.

Was that just the saturation point for the Wii? Or is the Nintendo craze over again?
 

sleepykyo

Member
Unless Sony pulls another $599, and that's extremely doubtful given the rumors so far of the PS4, they'll be fine.

They're going to be in awful shape. Between the the exclusives that the nextbox will get from being early to the market to the difference in spending ability, the PS4 will fare far worse than the PS3. It's just a question of whether Sony can still make money off of their tiny market share or just exiting would be better.
 
http://www.gamestop.com/common/images/lbox/802643b.jpg[IMG] which is just [IMG]http://www.laptoprepair101.com/wp-images/external-laptop-harddrive-2.jpg[IMG] but without the ms software.[/QUOTE]

Again, the 360 uses basically any off the shelf USB memory stick that you can even load and play games from.
 
1. Nintendo
2. Microsoft






3. Sony

Nintendo and Microsoft will have a dogfight over North America and portions of Europe, but otherwise I expect Nintendo to hold the overall lead worldwide.

The Wii and DS had Sony's gaming division on the ropes, and I think the 3DS and Nextbox will possibly knock Sony out of the race for good. Sony's been out of touch with the market since at least the PS2.

Never say never, however; Nintendo came around in 2005.
 
Nintendo: Wii U will boast a much smaller userbase, a much smaller technology gap, and a much larger 3rd party presence. They have the potential to maintain first, but even if they don't Wii U will still rack up impressive sales, and even if they do it'll be a "hollow" 1st according to certain metrics/audiences. 3DS will continue as is, utterly dominating Japan and doing just okay elsewhere. Nintendo's overall digital shift will be the smoothest of the big 3, shockingly.


Microsoft/Sony: Don't know enough about Durango and Orbis yet, but I'm sure both will continue the steady transition of Xbox and PlayStation from consoles to sevices. MS is better positioned now, but that doesn't mean much if they fail to capitalize on that (as Sony did in 2006). Vita will be absorbed into PSmobile within 2 years, signalling the death of dedicated PlayStation handhelds.
 
Funny how so many 'Sony is doomed' posts there are, especially since its the best selling console currenty worldwide, and barring a few exceptions, has generally outsold the competition for quite some time now. If they play their cards right, they will be in a strong position for next gen.

I understand that Sony's tv division is struggling which is hurting the company as a whole, but their gaming division is largely profitable now.

Sony has an incredibly strong position in europe and other ex-us markets.

I suppose the NPD discussions truly have distorted reality on here when it comes to worldwide console positioning.
 
Actually, here's the Bungie leak thread, which at the very least indicates a timed exclusive.

My understanding according to the internal doc leak, when Bungie left, MS negotiated exclusive console rights to their next IP for the first game (sequels are a different story). The release schedule was very, very clear.

All the Bungie contract says is that they are not obligated to deliver the PS3 SKU day and date with the 360 version. It implies nothing about exclusivity and depending on how quickly they get up to speed on the PS3 hardware, there's every chance they will ship at the same time.

Sony will release the PlayStation 4 with proprietary media of some sort.

You know it's gonna happen. Sony has an inability to use open standards across the board.

The PS3 is the most open, standards compliant console anyone has ever built. This is pure ignorance.

They're going to be in awful shape. Between the the exclusives that the nextbox will get from being early to the market to the difference in spending ability, the PS4 will fare far worse than the PS3. It's just a question of whether Sony can still make money off of their tiny market share or just exiting would be better.

We have no reason to believe the next Xbox will ship before the PS4, let alone have a significant lead time. For all you know Sony will launch first.

Again, the 360 uses basically any off the shelf USB memory stick that you can even load and play games from.

Yeah, functionality they added 4 or 5 years after launch...
 
All the Bungie contract says is that they are not obligated to deliver the PS3 SKU day and date with the 360 version. It implies nothing about exclusivity and depending on how quickly they get up to speed on the PS3 hardware, there's every chance they will ship at the same time.

Hence, my timed exclusive comment. But they are very clear that it will release for the MS system in the first year and Sony's version will be a year later.
 
1st: Microsoft
Only if they can maintain a solid hold on both core and casual markets.

2nd: Sony
Only if they continue catering heavily to the core market.

3rd: Nintendo
Only if they struggle with 3rd parties and platform identity throughout the cycle.

It's really too early for a thread like this. We haven't even seen what MS and Sony have in the works next generation and we don't even have a clue as to what the Wii U's head-start will do for Nintendo yet. This generation we saw the first and third place console makers swap positions so who knows what things will look like next generation.
 

IrishNinja

Member
haha, wow. this thread brought all kinds've struggles out of the woodwork...GAF, take a gander at some of the posts here, this is kinda where we're headed in the next cycle.

i mean, take a look at this gem:

Well in an ideal world I hope Sony takes back its rightful crown. Fk Microsoft. o

yeah, i hope the next wave of members brings in more insights like that, you just can't find that at say, every other gaming community on the net.

Man do some of you want Sony to die or something...

geez.

see, i don't get that from most of the posts on that note, personally - maybe because i recognize a number of posters and believe they're in line with me: healthy concern for a company that still brings a tremendous amount to the table. but there's no way you could be following them and not be concerned.

Microsoft.

New Kinect will crush a relatively uninteresting touchscreen with casuals. It might even have core game uses due to being a pack-in. Sony is a broken shell of a company that wouldn't even go into this generation as a platform owner if it had any sense.

see, this is ridiculous though. where's sony's biggest room for growth? still in gaming. these posts make no sense.

My prediction: By the end of the generation no one will remember Ouya.

this is the most likely thing i can see, from what's been said in this thread. be crazy interesting if it was wrong, but smart money bet against that i think.

My prediction is Gaf will get it completely wrong again.

...i take it back, ive got $20 on this

Nope. Xbox sold 24 million, the Gamecube never crossed 22 million.

always wondered about this, but never really knew...huh.

I think next gen could be the fulfillment of this generation's prophecy: when Nintendo is everyone's second system, they are first overall.

Will really come down to how aggressive all three are in securing exclusives, though. If they decide it's not worth it, then consumers are likely not going to see the wisdom in owning multiple similarly-capable systems.

a good post as ever, but...how much do you think that happened/affected things this gen? damn near everything except MGS4 was multi-plat, and...wait, i guess i should prolly see some figures, i don't rightly know how many on average own both PS3 & 360 now.
 

rdrr gnr

Member
I hope the OP keeps track of this thread and uses it to blow up some spots a few years down the line. I'll have some fun and guess.

I think Sony and Microsoft will sell roughly the same (more or less but definitely within reason of the current gen). I don't think the changing gaming environment is influential enough to [dramatically] limit console sales. People still want controllers in their hands; asses on couches; and explosions on big screens.

I think Nintendo will be up there but the disparity won't be as great. Whatever the Wii U sells in the year (to 1.5 years) between the next generation of consoles will probably hold up to the end.

I think all three companies will have profitable gaming divisions within 2 years of next-gen. If one were to seriously consider dropping out -- it would be Sony (though I think they'll do okay).

The gap between the best selling console and the worst selling console will be no more than 15 million.

No console will break 80 million units. Next gen will similar in length to this one. And the last traditional console cycle.
 

meta4

Junior Member
haha, wow. this thread brought all kinds've struggles out of the woodwork...GAF, take a gander at some of the posts here, this is kinda where we're headed in the next cycle.

i mean, take a look at this gem:

yeah, i hope the next wave of members brings in more insights like that, you just can't find that at say, every other gaming community on the net.

There is absolutely nothing wrong in disliking a company's approach towards the industry and liking another. I also explained in a subsequent post why I do not like MS. That does not mean we cannot objectively discuss what is going to happen next gen. I have already stated why I feel MS would have the strongest chance of dominating markets outside Japan. So get of your high horse as if you have provided fascinating comments on the industry.
 

Averon

Member
They're going to be in awful shape. Between the the exclusives that the nextbox will get from being early to the market to the difference in spending ability, the PS4 will fare far worse than the PS3. It's just a question of whether Sony can still make money off of their tiny market share or just exiting would be better.

Exclusives will be rare across the board, if this gen is anything to go by. Too much money is left on the table going exclusive for one platform. I just don't see MS amassing a slew of third party exclusives. They don't need to. They established themselves as a dominate player to third parties. Also, there's no reason to think the PS4 will come out later than MS's new machine. I can't see Sony giving MS significant lead time again.
 
Exclusives will be rare across the board, if this gen is anything to go by. I just don't see MS amassing a slew of third party exclusives. They don't need to. They established themselves as a dominate player to third parties. Also, there's no reason to think the PS4 will come out later than MS's new machine.

Also, if all third parties are multiplatform again Sony will actually have the exclusives advantage over MS since they have three times as many first party studios making exclusives for PS4.
 

meta4

Junior Member
Exclusives will be rare across the board, if this gen is anything to go by. I just don't see MS amassing a slew of third party exclusives. They don't need to. They established themselves as a dominate player to third parties. Also, there's no reason to think the PS4 will come out later than MS's new machine.

True. Which is why next gen will all come down to First Party Exclusives, Online Services and Marketing. Third parties will not determine this cycle as much as they did previous cycles. It is also important for both MS and Sony to launch well with enough big hitters. I still think it would be disastrous for Sony if they do not launch with a GT and a GOW to get atleast a bit of momentum going early on.
 
Hence, my timed exclusive comment. But they are very clear that it will release for the MS system in the first year and Sony's version will be a year later.

They are very clear when the 360 version must be delivered, but the contract implies nothing about any timed exclusive, only that Bungie can have more time to finish the PS3 SKU if they need it.

Let me guess, you aren't a Vita owner.

I own a Vita and one data point involving Vita memory cards in no way invalidates the many other data points we have.
 

IrishNinja

Member
There is absolutely nothing wrong in disliking a company's approach towards the industry and liking another. I also explained in a subsequent post why I do not like MS. That does not mean we cannot objectively discuss what is going to happen next gen. I have already stated why I feel MS would have the strongest chance of dominating markets outside Japan. So get of your high horse as if you have provided fascinating comments on the industry.

uh-huh.
i'm seeing a bunch of posts about Zelda SS's lesser sales (as if the dead momentum the wii had didn't affect this), and a bit more about why you personally like sony and don't like MS, too. which is great, but opening with:

I hope Sony takes back its rightful crown. Fk Microsoft.

is straight console warrior drivel. I never said each of my comments was a grand contribution to every topic i bless, but that's gamefaqs level garbage right there. you make statements like that, there's little room to be salty when people seem dismissive of your subsequent posts, man.

on the actual topic: i'm entirely hesitant to make actual predictions, and not just because you can totally do this with older members right now and see all kinds've shit that was said in '05 (the PSP vs DS threads are amazing). as another said here, we saw last gen's # 1 and 3 trade places, while 2 gained a tremendous foothold. going into the next gen with said clientele/momentum always seems logical, but there's things that could be game changers (man this term has become such a meme around here..)

-BC: i know it's usually a nice thing blah blah but if sony/ms somehow cant get their DD services to move over flawlessly (nintendo claims they already have it setup), that's really gonna hamper a scene that needs to continue growing next gen. MS needs to do less to discourage this as well, but that's another topic.

-if any of the rumors of not allowing used game purchases - or more likely, requiring passes to do so - pan out, but another system doesn't have this in place, that could stand to really skew the spread.

-we seem largely agreed on exclusives (only what you pay to produce, etc) so it might come down to features: MS feels confident in its online, and seems to actively be working on cable & other things. i always wanna say multimedia shit alone wont move units, but sony practically buried themselves this gen trying to replicate the PS2's success as a DVD player.

other stuff i'm forgetting, but i tend to also agree with the prediction that nobody breaks 80-100 million, not because of the doom & gloom of "THIS IS THE LAST CONSOLE CYCLE" stuff but because of parity and the anomaly that was the PS2's domination. of course, these are all mostly safe bets before we know much of anything about the 3, so maybe i too will laugh at this in 2016.
 

meta4

Junior Member
uh-huh.
i'm seeing a bunch of posts about Zelda SS's lesser sales (as if the dead momentum the wii had didn't affect this), and a bit more about why you personally like sony and don't like MS, too. which is great, but opening with:
s straight console warrior drivel. I never said each of my comments was a grand contribution to every topic i bless, but that's gamefaqs level garbage right there. you make statements like that, there's little room to be salty when people seem dismissive of your subsequent posts, man.

Its not. What would be console warrior drivel would be defending every action of Sony and condemning Microsoft at every turn. There is absolutely nothing wrong in saying fk Microsoft. I do not like their approach on many things including paid online gaming, Lack of AAA retail exclusives, Extreme focus on Kinect etc and those are my views. That does not in any way mean one cannot objectively discuss what is going to happen next gen. If I had said the same thing about Wii Music would you have reacted differently.

If I hypothetically stated " In the ideal world I hope Xenoblade sells a massive no of copies. Fk Wii Music or COD etc.." would that statement be wrong to make. I have a feeling you would not have had the same objections. Somehow when it comes to consoles I cannot have similar opinions? I surely cannot change my opinion on MS nor does it prevent me from objectively stating that MS are most likely to be in a much more Dominant position next gen while Sony could end up in deeper trouble. I do not have to be diplomatic about this if I do not like a particular company's approach. Simple as that.

With regard to Zelda's sales I never speculated on the reason why it sold less. I just said it sold less. You seem to be irked by that statement. I simply responded to the post that Sony's games sell less than Nintendo's C tier franchises which I stated was not the case always. I am not sure if you are looking out for this Console War interpretation in every comment nor do I care right now..
 

dr_rus

Member
Too little info to guess right now. But from the looks of it I'd say that Wii U will sell much less than Wii and in the end of the next generation cycle it'll be roughly equal between the three players (unless MS and/or Sony do something really stupid with their new h/w). That also means that Wii U will probably get even less 3rd party support than Wii because of it being underpowered compared to 2/3 of the market. I fully expect the console market as a whole to shrink compared to this generation though - thanks to PC going strong and mobile devices (tablets mostly) eating into it.

I personally will be upgrading my PC and will probably get PS4 at some point. Wii U doesn't interest me at all. Xbox3 if it'll be a repeat of 360 is pretty much pointless when you have a good gaming PC. But who knows?..
 

IrishNinja

Member
If I hypothetically stated " In the ideal world I hope Xenoblade sells a massive no of copies. Fk Wii Music or COD etc.." would that statement be wrong to make. I have a feeling you would not have had the same objections. Somehow when it comes to consoles I cannot have similar opinions?

i understand the notion that everyone has preferences, and companies can have design philosophies (especially with first party studios, when that applies). but yes, commenting game (x) over (y), when relevant, is likely to hold more water than going across entire brands. more specifically though, it's not even so much what you said as the fanboyish way you chose to say it. to that end:

I do not have to be diplomatic about this if I do not like a particular company's approach. Simple as that.

you sure do if you don't want people to assume it's some gamefaqs level drivel, though. which was clearly not your intent, based on your follow-up replies.
you're not speaking in a vacuum, you're looking to interact, so yes, you should either take that into account or understand why your post gets the reaction it does. i agree with you in the simplicity here.

With regard to Zelda's sales I never speculated on the reason why it sold less. I just said it sold less. You seem to be irked by that statement. I simply responded to the post that Sony's games sell less than Nintendo's C tier franchises which I stated was not the case always.

your thesis statement there (and here too) seemed to be that zelda was a c-tier, based on one example in decades of history. i merely pointed at the context of that one example.
if you're looking to prove a trend, it's an odd example to grab. Metroid was never a big seller, but if you took Other M, no doubt most sony IPs did better - for all i know, Heavenly Sword and Folklore might've outsold that struggle.
 

meta4

Junior Member
i understand the notion that everyone has preferences, and companies can have design philosophies (especially with first party studios, when that applies). but yes, commenting game (x) over (y), when relevant, is likely to hold more water than going across entire brands. more specifically though, it's not even so much what you said as the fanboyish way you chose to say it. to that end:



you sure do if you don't want people to assume it's some gamefaqs level drivel, though. which was clearly not your intent, based on your follow-up replies.
you're not speaking in a vacuum, you're looking to interact, so yes, you should either take that into account or understand why your post gets the reaction it does. i agree with you in the simplicity here.



your thesis statement there (and here too) seemed to be that zelda was a c-tier, based on one example in decades of history. i merely pointed at the context of that one example.
if you're looking to prove a trend, it's an odd example to grab. Metroid was never a big seller, but if you took Other M, no doubt most sony IPs did better - for all i know, Heavenly Sword and Folklore might've outsold that struggle.

Fair enough. I can understand why my first statement at first could have been assumed that way. Regarding the Zelda sales argument I am precisely stating the opposite. Zelda SS sold less than some major Sony IP's but it is def not C tier if Quality is the bar for the tiers. Again I do not consider Kirby, DKCR as C tier stuff and they sold less than or similar to some of the major Sony ones as well. The reason for low sales for Zelda could be many - Floundering Wii Sales, Marketing, Control Issues etc... but those could be the very same reasons for many Sony IP's as well and is an entirely different debate altogether.

I love Zelda a lot btw and while SS may not have reached the pinnacle of the earlier titles it was still a bloody good game which deserved more sales IMO. It may not be a trend going forward but I can only point to examples this gen and so I chose SS when replying to the post. Hell there are people out here predicting GT is no longer a system seller for Sony as it used to be because of one game this gen which although sold around 8 million is less than its previous installments.
 

IrishNinja

Member
agreed, meta4. didn't mean to be too scathing, looking back at my post.

yeah, i still think GT has that kind've power (as you pointed from the sales), its just a question of how long polyphony takes to get it out the door, i guess.

one thing that comes up in sony v nintendo things a lot - particularly handheld discussions, on hwy vita's not poised to turn things around the way nintendo uniquely could - has to do with what you're highlighting as big/potential system sellers. a lot've people harp on the fact that outside God of War, Uncharted & not many others, sony doesn't have nearly as many in that category, but something i thought they'd done since PSX days was try and get their hand in every pie, and create an environment more likely to foster a 3rd party making that seller for them, in on the ground floor - MS emulated that early this gen, with much success.

this gen, though, they really seemed to invest in other studios, and looking at the exclusives they did get, i think it paid off. again not all are big sellers but they add up to a solid library over time, and put themselves in a spot where a lot've us are already saying PS4 could be interesting just because of those relationships, a sharp contract to the doom & gloom on the other hand. if MS was in the exact same spot with studios whose output i enjoyed as much, i don't think there'd be any question in my mind about getting the next xbox.

could be small/anecdotal but i think it's a factor. a stable of less stellar (again, sales-wise) but good titles prolly isnt the ideal image to market, but it does keep me interested.
then again, i'm an old school sega fan so no company should likely listen to me on this kinda thing, haha
 

Neo C.

Member
Nintendo is either first or last. If the compay uses the first year without competition smartly, neither Microsoft nor Sony can catch up. If Nintendo fucks up 2013, the head start of a few million consoles sold won't do shit against the competition.
 

FireVoa

Member
Nintendo: They'll sell well, maybe not Wii numbers but more than enough. Nintendo have always marching to the beat of their own drum I don't see any major issues that won't be solved with a cut cost (if they have too they will again) and a hardware revision potential. Whatever appeases or pleases the fan base at the time.

Microsoft: They've been making some very choice moves lately that I think will carry over with the next console. It'll sell almost as much as Wii U. I think the system will be a hit with third parties and pretty much secure a close second or even distant second to Nintendo if not exceeding them potentially.

Sony: Lots of problems over in the Sony camp as of late. But I don't see them going out this coming generation. However in order to stick around they have to make some major changes with how they run this business and regain the consumer trust that seems to have disappeared over the last few years. If they do they can equal Microsoft but probably not exceed them.
 
  1. Nintendo - overall winner due to success with the casual market and strong IPs
  2. Microsoft - most popular with core and online gamers
  3. Sony - IPs with limited appeal fail to capture the general public's attention

iOS and Android continue to bite large chunks out of the handheld market. Causing the 3DS to under perform DS sales and kills off the Vita prematurely.
 

AOC83

Banned
The WiiU is going to bomb. They can´t reproduce the WiiMote casual hype and have nothing to offer for core gamers. I expect sales somewhere around Gamecube -N64 levels.

Microsoft has no Kinect to save their ass this time and the first party lineup is not the best. Microsofts biggest strength for now are British and American bro gamers.
In continental Europe they´re going to get annihilated if Sony releases at the same time with a similar price.

Japan is insane, so no idea what´s going to happen there, the only predictable variable there is that they don´t buy XBoxes.
 
PS4 will sell the most consoles but won't dominate the market. Nextbox will come 2nd and WiiU will be 3rd despite releasing first. It won't be bad for Nintendo since they will make money out of it from the start just like the GameCube. I believe WiiU will not have the same effect like the Wii did.

3DS will dominate handheld market in the early years.
Vita will be rejuvenated when a cheaper and better VITA2000 launches.
Sony will be wise to make a Vita smartphone and tablet with physical buttons, smartphone should get an attachable controller shell.
 

meta4

Junior Member
agreed, meta4. didn't mean to be too scathing, looking back at my post.

yeah, i still think GT has that kind've power (as you pointed from the sales), its just a question of how long polyphony takes to get it out the door, i guess.

one thing that comes up in sony v nintendo things a lot - particularly handheld discussions, on hwy vita's not poised to turn things around the way nintendo uniquely could - has to do with what you're highlighting as big/potential system sellers. a lot've people harp on the fact that outside God of War, Uncharted & not many others, sony doesn't have nearly as many in that category, but something i thought they'd done since PSX days was try and get their hand in every pie, and create an environment more likely to foster a 3rd party making that seller for them, in on the ground floor - MS emulated that early this gen, with much success.

this gen, though, they really seemed to invest in other studios, and looking at the exclusives they did get, i think it paid off. again not all are big sellers but they add up to a solid library over time, and put themselves in a spot where a lot've us are already saying PS4 could be interesting just because of those relationships, a sharp contract to the doom & gloom on the other hand. if MS was in the exact same spot with studios whose output i enjoyed as much, i don't think there'd be any question in my mind about getting the next xbox.

could be small/anecdotal but i think it's a factor. a stable of less stellar (again, sales-wise) but good titles prolly isnt the ideal image to market, but it does keep me interested.
then again, i'm an old school sega fan so no company should likely listen to me on this kinda thing, haha

Agreed. I really liked their approach this gen with regard to building a nice exclusive portfolio. Generally covering something for everybody. Their marketing is however so inept. They really need to figure out a way to become the company that was once considered different and cool in the gaming world. They need to get that attitude back and penetrate pop culture like they did with the first playstation. Do not know if they will have it in them to do that however. Exclusives will only take you so far. They need to make people aware and feel they are missing out on a cool product. Anywats I too will be getting the PS4 and the Wii U at launch

I loved Sega too! I just hope I do not see another Japanese company I love go down the drain next gen considering they are doing a lot of nice things.. Interesting times ahead!
 
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