We have to really ask ourselves how important console version of Dragon Quest and Monster Hunter really are? The console versions of both titles have yet to set the sales charts on fire. However, if you compare them to their portable counterparts, it's a while other story.
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PS4 Rumors , APU code named 'Liverpool' Radeon HD 7970 GPU Steamroller CPU 16GB Flash
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We have to really ask ourselves how important console version of Dragon Quest and Monster Hunter really are? The console versions of both titles have yet to set the sales charts on fire. However, if you compare them to their portable counterparts, it's a while other story.
I couldn't have said it better myself. Uninformed posters bemoan the 2014 rhetoric, but in terms of performance, cost, and long term profit; it only makes the most sense. GDDR5 doesn't just "get cheaper", AMD's GCN is on its last legs, and neither 360/PS3 is at $99.
2013 will land us a half baked, 'modest', misstep. We are at a level of performance where we need a massive bump on paper to see a similar jump from previous generations.
From a performance standpoint, posters suggest 10X PS3 will offer a quantum leap. However, my biggest fear is the visual boost will be lost in translation. The Samaritan demo was mocked by a portion of GAF for not looking 'next-gen'. People have unrealistic expectations, timelines, and wants. 20X PS3 can be had at a reasonable cost, size, and performance level if people are willing to wait.
Sony and Microsoft would be better suited for a 2014 launch. The wait is agonizing, but an industry wide acceptance and push forward is far more important than a marginal bump.
Am I missing something here?, GCN on its last legs?
pharmboy044
Member
I'm going to be pretty sad if Sony doesn't show anything regarding the PS4 at E3.
Apophis2036
Banned
Regarding the bold, you mean the way PS3 / 360 'usurped' the original Wii ?.
I think many people misunderstand why the original Wii didn't get current gen multi platform ports, it was not only 10 - 15 times less powerful than the HD twins, it's architecture was completely out of date to the point where whole different engines had to be created to run on the system for multi platform games.
This is not going to be the same situation with Wii U, yes PS4 / 720 will be more powerful, maybe even as much as 6 times as powerful (will more than likely be 3-4x at most going from the original PS4 leaked specs in this OP, the same leap Wii U is over PS3 / 360) but the architecture of Wii U is such that it will be more than capable of getting 'down ports' of next gen multi platform games *if* the publishers see a market on the console.
I for one hope Sony build a 3Ghz 4Core CPU, 2TFLOP GPU, 4GB of Ram console which loses a tiny amount of money at launch and is profitable within a year than some sort of 4TB monster with 8GB's of Ram that will end up selling for a $300 loss on every console sold the same as PS3.
It seems like some of you want Sony to go under just to satisfy your greedy graphical needs.
Buy a gaming PC if you want AA / AF / 1080p / 60 fps multi platform games because it ain't happening even on PS4 / 720 because of power consumption, size of case, heat, possible hardware failures and cost.
SolidSnakex
Member
Monster Hunter Tri on the Wii sold over a million copies in Japan. Obviously not as big as the portable titles, but certainly big numbers. And I don't know why anyone would question DQ's selling potential on consoles. DQX may not set the charts on fire due to it being a MMO, but it shows that Nintendo is going to keep that franchise on their platforms. Which does leave the possibility of a new exclusive single player DQ for the Wii U.
This is wrong. None of what I suggested will make Sony lose $300 per console. Architecture change will make vast improvements in performance, stacked RAM will offer more RAM at cheaper prices, it'll be better for all of us. The wait till be longer, but the cost will go down dramatically. Cooler systems, higher performance, and more space for trimming the fat as the years go by.
4GB in 2013 is an impossibility without a fuck-ton of expenditure.
Or they'll just stay on PS3 for a while longer. Happened with PS2 with some decent stuff coming out well into 2008.
I'm skeptical about Nintendo. They got a port of MonHan and a DQX beta for launch sure, but they also had a lot of 3DS support early and lately it seems that support has all moved to smart phone development instead.
You assume people in Japan will keep buying PS3 and Wii ahead of WiiU when it comes out based on the idea that they've "voted with their dollars" (yen I think you'll find). Yet you're other assumption is that the moment XBox3/PS4 are released they'll "usurp WiiU". Can I ask what's the basis for this thinking, because it seems quite contradictory to me.
Apophis2036
Banned
Sorry the part you bolded wasn't aimed directly at you, i should have made that part clear.
Im talking about the people going on about wanting PS4 to have a 4+TFLOP GPU and 8 / 16GB's of Ram. Unless Sony were to charge $800 per machine they would be losing around the same amount of money per console sold as they were in 2006 with PS3.
The specs i suggested (4 Core 3Ghz CPU / 2TF GPU / 4GB of Ram) could be sold at $450 while only taking a $100 loss per console and be profitable within a year - 18 months of it's life cycle if it were released in March 2014.
Glorified G
Member
You're really just pulling meaningless numbers out of nowhere. You're not an engineer working at Sony's R & D, you have no idea how much any of this cost or how much Sony will lose.
H_Prestige
Banned
DQ was already with Nintendo this gen. Doesn't mean anything.
I can see a lot of ps3/wii u multiplats, though.
gundamkyoukai
Member
I think people are underestimating how far hardware has come since PS3\360 came out.
The problem MS and Sony face are heat\ size getting 20 x the PS3 is not problem now but it would run too hot to put into the new systems .
Now it seems they running into problems with Ram if they have to wait a year so be it .
While some are saying they have to worry about Nintendo having a 2 years head start it better to give them that that waste billion of dollars and rush to the market .
Rushing to market with hardware that only going to get more expensive to make as time goes on is stupid .
A fair amount of new tech is coming out soon a few months not going to kill them .
A console with those specs would never lose them 100 they might even break even on that with 1 on 2 games sold.
The problem MS and Sony face are heat\ size getting 20 x the PS3 is not problem now but it would run too hot to put into the new systems .
Now it seems they running into problems with Ram if they have to wait a year so be it .
While some are saying they have to worry about Nintendo having a 2 years head start it better to give them that that waste billion of dollars and rush to the market .
Rushing to market with hardware that only going to get more expensive to make as time goes on is stupid .
A fair amount of new tech is coming out soon a few months not going to kill them .
A console with those specs would never lose them 100 they might even break even on that with 1 on 2 games sold.
Probably. I have to wonder what sort of incentives Nintendo keeps offering SE to keep DQ on their platforms though.
The 4 + Teraflop console will be affordable in 2014. It will be achievable with a 8870 at 160 watts in 2013. The 9000 series might push that number down to 130 watts or less. RAM will also be dramatically cheaper since they will leave GDDR5 to DDR4 and will stack it. This is all reasonable for 2014.
SolidSnakex
Member
I'm just expecting the Wii U to come out the gate like a rocket. I could be completely wrong, but Nintendo definitely has the launch lineup for that to happen. I also think that the off TV gaming is going to be huge in Japan. But I think the biggest factor will be that Nintendo has shown that they have no issue going after Japanese support. MS was aggressive when it came to going after Japanese support early this gen, but they just didn't have the sales to keep them. I really doubt that Nintendo is going to have that same issue.
Probably co-marketing in the west as well as huge install base.
Apophis2036
Banned
.It will take years for the Wii U to achieve a similar install base and a similar game library as the PS3. You'll see ports between the two for most titles. If not, than they'll be timed exclusives, there is no use leaving money off the table.
Apophis2036
Banned
Im not talking about a 4TF console, people a couple of pages back were asking for a 4TF GPU with 8+ GB's of Ram, that really is overkill imo.
Sony fans want a powerful next gen Playstation, a 2TF GPU, 4GB of Ram PS4 will be more than fine all the while not dicing with death regarding loses per console.
People even talking about 4TF GPU's and 8GB of Ram are just setting themselves up for disappointment.
H_Prestige
Banned
Wii U has no install base, and Wii isn't exactly the best platform to launch a MMO on, install base be damned.
I don't think getting Bayo 2 exclusive was a huge coup. That was a dead franchise that they decided to revive.
When they get something like FFXV, KH3, or MGS5 announced for their system, then you know they aren't fucking around.
Also note that an AMD APU solution is also still a strong possibility. If a 1TF APU co-exists with a 2.5 - 3TF GPU and 3D stacked DDR4, there is no reason to believe a large power draw or unreasonable cost will mean a massive launch price or excessive heat.
It isn't unreasonable to believe that these techs maturing in 2014 could push a machine to $399-$449, the ideal balanced launch price for the HD twins.
You do know that the Wii and DS (the two Nintendo platforms that run DQ) both have a larger install base than the PS3? Besides Nintendo helped SE in marketing DQIX in the west.
But when PS4 and XBox 3 arrive the WiiU with its large userbase will be usurped and devs will suddenly decide to leave money off the table?
People not wanting other people talking about consoles with 4TF GPU's has already accepted disappointment.
gundamkyoukai
Member
I think another reason people want more power is next gen going to last just as long as this one .
bgassassin
Member
Three 680s is 9TFLOPs worth of GPU power. Pointing that out doesn't mean anything because that demo obviously does not need that much power.
If a console is over 10X the Wii U, and ports won't be possible, than yes. Currently, personally, the Wii U hasn't shown any sort of visual muscle that I would consider next-generation.
No one else to blame but Sony...
the fact that Wii U's launch titles look as good as their late counterparts on current gen hardware where developers know how they work back and forth left and right doesn't tell you anything? sad..
So PS4 and XBox 3 will be over 10x the power of WiiU in your opinion?.. I'm just trying to understand your thinking here.
It seems to be that if something is powerful enough people will dump what they have just bought and buy the new more powerful console. But if something isn't enough of a leap in power they'll just keep the system they've had for the last 6 years, its never worked like that.
I think the Wii U will have its success, but I don't think third parties will have an easy time finding parity between the Wii U, PS4, and Xbox 3. Porting the games will be possible, but it might be ported to a point of jarring visual discrepancies.
The Wii U will have two years to itself as the most powerful console, but when Sony and MS launch the Xbox 3 and PS4, they have an opportunity to really take things to the next level.
Apophis2036
Banned
Thats because we have only seen 2D Mario, Nintendo Land, cheap / fast third party exclusives (ZombiU), cheap / fast PS3 / 360 ports and Wii uports (Pikmin 3).
At E3 2013 you will see the first big budget games built from the ground up to take advantage of the more powerful Wii U architecture from developers such as Nintendo EAD, Retro and Monolith.
It will take years for that power to be realized. It won't just come over night. Third parties will also not be the go-to guys for technical excellence. It will lie squarely on the shoulder of Nintendos, who have yet to produce an HD title with the level of complexity of Gears or Uncharted.
If we use the rumored specs we've heard the PS4/720 aren't 10x Wii U, they are 3-4x. The thing about it also is if the Wii U has two years by it self that's a big user base that devs won't ignore because 2 new more powerful consoles release within 2 years, I feel that all 8th gen consoles will get good third party support imo, that's Wii U, PS4, and Xbox 720.
Even if PS4 & Xbox Next is 100X more powerful than the Wii U it's not going to have much effect on the Wii U.
People expected the PS3, Vita and 3DS to do the same... but they didn't. PS3 didn't take off until it got cheaper + games and 3DS was in the same boat.
I don't have a lot of confidence after the handling of the Wii, which got plenty of mid-tier support early on.
Apophis2036
Banned
Good luck with those $200 million game budgets where Sony need to sell over 30 million copies of every game to turn a profit.
Let's face it other than Uncharted, God of War and Gran Turismo the other numerous Sony first party sales (esp after the first installment) were very poor indeed this generation.
Build a modest yet powerful console for $400, turn a profit inside two years and keep software development costs under $50 million and they will be fine and may even make some money for the first time in a while.
If they build another 10x power leap Playstation, or even the mental 20x some people are asking for, they could well be out of the console business by the end of the next generation.
SapientWolf
Trucker Sexologist
It tells us that the Wii U can't brute force good performance from console ports like a mid to high range gaming PC can. Which is about how powerful next gen consoles would have to be to get a generational upgrade in graphical fidelity across the board at launch.
I think the problem now is that they can't afford not to try on the Wii U. The Wii, PSP and DS cash cow is all dried up. Companies like SE that practically financed their HD games by releasing remakes and ports on the DS and PSP will really need to look for other revenue generation cash cows.
They have... in iOS/Android.
Glorified G
Member
Publishers care about demographics. Total userbase numbers are meaningless to them if there is not a market(or they believe there is not a market) to sell their games.
This shit? Seriously... WHAT DON'T YOU UNDERSTAND? You run a massive risk of a hot, expensive console, with anemic RAM if you launch in 2013 with GDDR5.
The industry is MOVING AWAY from GDDR5. Samsung is LEAVING the market. What don't you understand? That shit will cost billions year over year.
20X PS3 is possible in the Fall of 2014. Not only that, but GPU's will switch to smaller architectures, RAM will be DDR4, easier to acquire, and in a new format that will have better long term yields.
The system will not be over $450 to produce. You guys have seriously lost the plot. It's been almost 7 years since the original Xbox 360. SEVEN YEARS. It will be NINE if they go 2014 route.
Osiris
I permanently banned my 6 year old daughter from using the PS4 for mistakenly sending grief reports as it's too hard to watch or talk to her
Nintendo have a LOT to prove when it comes to 3rd party support, many gamers ended up with a dusty Gamecube and/or Wii despite assurances from Nintendo that they had "Got 3rd party relationships right this time", each generation doesn't exist in a vacuum and no, Nintendo really didn't get 3rd party relations right yet.
Nintendo will sell plenty Wii-U's to their target market, but maintaining 3rd party support has been an issue, will it remain an issue for this generation? I think for a good few years yes, they are not starting with a blank canvas, they have baggage.
I'd say possibly they will fix things, but they are not going to undo this perception their platforms have in the year or so after launch, it's going to take a whole generation at least for them to undo the kind of damage they have to deal with, IMO. And note I'm not just talking about the perception of gamers in this criticism, but the perception of Devs and Publishers too.
gundamkyoukai
Member
It's kind of funny that people think as time goes by the systems going to get more expensive .
The longer they wait the more powerful the system going to be for just as much or cheaper .
A a fair amount of Sony titles sold good other than those about 1 to 3 million .
Also lets not forget that unlike 3rd party Sony gets extra money from each game sold so it even easier for them to turn profit .
What's their revenue from IOS/Android? Because for all the talk of "most profitable games ever" the actual money being made on these mobile games seems pretty small fry next to console or even handheld games.
Is the revenue generated from mobile apps by SE really that much?
If the games sell than that's good.
I agree, Nintendo has to prove the most next gen about third party support, if the games sell, and they keep pushing for the third party support than that's good, the Wii U Japanese third party support is off to a good start, and they I think it could only get better.
Personally I think all of the big 3 have to prove something next gen.
I'm just sick of saying the same shit over and over again. People see a number like 4 Teraflops and scoff at it. What they have yet to understand is that it will be NINE FUCKING years.
2013 is toxic. Tech just isn't ready. People have zero idea how expensive and hot GDDR5 is. They are also suggesting Microsoft will put in 6 GB of it in a console? They have lost it. It's 2014, or they will have serious compromises.
Apophis2036
Banned
Lol calm down...
I never mentioned 2013 in my post, i have always said March 2014 for PS4 in this thread.
I don't care how you spin it, PS4 isn't getting a 4TF GPU and it's not just to do with cost, its the power consumption, heat in a small console case, combined with the astronomical software development costs building games that push a 4TF GPU would bring.
A 2TF GPU, 4GB of Ram PS4 in March 2014 for $400 would be perfect.
Well kind of silly to expect 4TFlops GPU. I mean really silly. At one time, the expectation was around 1.8 and now that more than doubled. In a single year, things are going to magically happen to make it that feasible especially when considering the target sale price, heat management and TDP.
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