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[Aquamarine]

Four words: Announced. Four. Months. Ago. A quick google search confirms this, so no investor should be at all surprised by this bad news.

It's not a matter of "being surprised," it's a matter of gauging future momentum for the system.

Tell me, where are the signs beyond baseless conjecture that the Wii U will succeed?

Visibly deteriorating, crucial third party relationships? Nintendo struggling with HD development? PS4 + Durango on the cusp of release?

NPD trends showing obviously mediocre console adoption? Analysts widely predicting operating profit target failures? The decline of staying power with their core IPs? Japan's recent console apathy? Abysmal European GFK Chart-Track sell-through data?

Multiple years of operating losses compounded with these problems introduces the very real possibility of continued Nintendo failure.

 

[Not Spaceghost]

I feel like Nintendo is only a few steps short of ditching home consoles and just going into maximum handheld support.

Their handheld game is completely unstoppable but they haven't produced a solid console in a long time.

 

[BGBW]

How pray tell would it not? Mobile devices are already cannibalizing the market in the west, double dipping would be brilliant if Nintendo wants to make some money. Think of the consumers who had no incentive to buy a dedicated handheld ever. You have to think beyond yourself. There will always be a dedicated handheld market, but it's shrinking.

Nintendo is quite literally sitting on a gold mind.

I said quite clearly in my last sentence. MKiOS would eat sales of MKU. MKU = more money for Nintendo because a) they don't have to pay Apple a single penny b) consumers haven't been conditioned to only pay 99pish for a game.

Also people are complaining Nintendo can't even support their own two systems with games, why would you want them to use up their resources to making games for a third platform?

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

I'd be more concerned with the fact that Nintendo may have well fallen short of 4M Wii U's sold WW.

 

[Schnozberry]

86bn yen is around $900m. It's not the same as Sony who really do have a vast property empire they can sell if need be. Even taking this figure as a written down book value, I don't see how one could get it up to $7bn worth of property alone.

I mixed up a couple of fields. My fault. I was looking at their other inventory assets.

 

[peanutbutterlatte]

How pray tell would it not? Mobile devices are already cannibalizing the market in the west, double dipping would be brilliant if Nintendo wants to make some money. Think of the consumers who had no incentive to buy a dedicated handheld ever. You have to think beyond yourself. There will always be a dedicated handheld market for the hardcore enthusiast, but it's shrinking.

Nintendo is quite literally sitting on a gold mind.

Think of all the consumers who only bought a 3DS to play a certain game. They exist. They are large in number. Nintendo would lose their business right away.

 

[Daingurse]

It's not a matter of "being surprised," it's a matter of gauging future momentum for the system.

Tell me, where are the signs beyond baseless conjecture that the Wii U will succeed?

Visibly deteriorating, crucial third party relationships? Nintendo struggling with HD development? PS4 + Durango on the cusp of release?

NPD trends showing obviously mediocre console adoption? Analysts widely predicting operating profit target failures? The decline of staying power with their core IPs? Japan's recent console apathy? Abysmal European GFK Chart-Track sell-through data?

Multiple years of operating losses compounded with these problems introduces the very real possibility of continued Nintendo failure.

Pretty much all of this. It is very possible to be a fan and stay critical. Nintendo fucked up, they need to take their lumps and keep it moving, that's it. The Wii-U ain't taking down Nintendo, but expect significant changes next gen.

Think of all the consumers who only bought a 3DS to play a certain game. They exist. They are large in number. Nintendo would lose their business right away.

So they will purchase it on their 3DS? If the ios and android experience is comparable nice, but touch will never replace buttons for me or most core gamers. These things can coexist, Nintendo is actively fighting this market at all times anyway, whether they acknowledge it or not.

 

[Daingurse]

Edit: Double Post

 

[BlockheadBrown]

It'll be interesting to see the reactions if the Nextbox and PS4 have console sales similar to the Wii U.

This gen isn't like last gen. There isn't that immediate "OMG THIS IS SO DIFFERENT" feeling. You could see that comparing the PS2 to the 360 or PS3. You could also see that with the Wii (control/interface, not graphics). Arguably, Nintendo has something similar (but not as gripping or easy to see the value) with the Wii U's Gamepad. A similar example could be made with Kinect 2 and the new PS Eye (although Kinect already set the stage and expectations with this).

There are almost 300M consoles out there running current software. That's a far larger number than the previous generation (PS2/GC/XB). The tech may be 7 years old, but there are still new titles being released as well as a backlog of decent titles for all the systems. There's also some new players (Ouya, Gamestick, arguably iOS and Mobile). People may not be as motivated to spend money on any new consoles at release. Once the new releases start to dry up, maybe. Microsoft appears to be looking to extend the Xbox 360's life even further (to a more general public with the rumored XTV).

Grab your popcorn. This generation's going to be fun to watch!

 

[Daingurse]

It'll be interesting to see the reactions if the Nextbox and PS4 have similar console sales levels.

This gen isn't like last gen. There isn't that immediate "OMG THIS IS SO DIFFERENT" feeling. You could see that comparing the PS2 to the 360 or PS3. You could also see that with the Wii (control/interface, not graphics). Arguably, Nintendo has something similar with the Wii U's Gamepad. A similar example could be made with Kinect 2 and the new PS Eye.

There are almost 300M consoles out there running current software. The tech may be 7 years old, but there are still new titles being released as well as a backlog of decent titles for all the systems. People may not be as motivated to spend money on any new consoles at release. Once the new releases start to dry up, maybe. Microsoft appears to be looking to extend the Xbox 360's life even further (to a more general public with the rumored XTV).

Grab your popcorn. This generation's going to be fun to watch!

You are going to be very disappointed if you think the next-gen consoles will be met with anywhere near the same level of apathy as the Wii-U. Your slant is obviously towards Nintendo, you'll see with your own eyes. It should be familiar, remember the N64 and Gamecube days? Welcome back, for better or worse.

 

[SneakyStephan]

Don't worry, guys. That's like 3 bucks in American money.

So like 40 cents in euros then.

 

[Glass Joe]

It's not a matter of "being surprised," it's a matter of gauging future momentum for the system.

Tell me, where are the signs beyond baseless conjecture that the Wii U will succeed?

Visibly deteriorating, crucial third party relationships? Nintendo struggling with HD development? PS4 + Durango on the cusp of release?

NPD trends showing obviously mediocre console adoption? Analysts widely predicting operating profit target failures? The decline of staying power with their core IPs? Japan's recent console apathy? Abysmal European GFK Chart-Track sell-through data?

Multiple years of operating losses compounded with these problems introduces the very real possibility of continued Nintendo failure.

I think you're confused by my intention. I'm not criticizing those who question Nintendo's ability to pick up momentum and keep their FY 2013 promises. Questioning that is quite justified.

I'm criticizing the responses here that are acting like the Nintendo headquarters is on fire with this terrible and shocking news. It's perfectly in line with what Nintendo told people to expect. FY 2013 is a whole other ball of wax.

So they will purchase it on their 3DS? If the ios and android experience is comparable nice, but touch will never replace buttons for me or most core gamers. These things can coexist, Nintendo is actively fighting this market at all times anyway, whether they acknowledge it or not.

Then Microsoft should be releasing Halo on Playstation, right? Think of that user base they're missing out on!

Nintendo needs a reason for people to buy their handhelds. Exclusive games are a pretty compelling reason. Plus, they can sell Mario Kart 7 for $40 in their digital store and make tons of bank. Do you think very many iOS users would spend that much on an iPhone app? That userbase is huge but IMO way more geared for cheaper, quick fix experiences.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

It'll be interesting to see the reactions if the Nextbox and PS4 have console sales similar to the Wii U.

This gen isn't like last gen. There isn't that immediate "OMG THIS IS SO DIFFERENT" feeling. You could see that comparing the PS2 to the 360 or PS3. You could also see that with the Wii (control/interface, not graphics). Arguably, Nintendo has something similar (but not as gripping or easy to see the value) with the Wii U's Gamepad. A similar example could be made with Kinect 2 and the new PS Eye (although Kinect already set the stage and expectations with this).

There are almost 300M consoles out there running current software. That's a far larger number than the previous generation (PS2/GC/XB). The tech may be 7 years old, but there are still new titles being released as well as a backlog of decent titles for all the systems. There's also some new players (Ouya, Gamestick, arguably iOS and Mobile). People may not be as motivated to spend money on any new consoles at release. Once the new releases start to dry up, maybe. Microsoft appears to be looking to extend the Xbox 360's life even further (to a more general public with the rumored XTV).

Grab your popcorn. This generation's going to be fun to watch!

The "If Wii U fails then EVERYTHING will fail" mentality is even more damaging.

Gamers move where the franchises and games are.

 

[Aquamarine]

I think you're confused by my intention. I'm not criticizing those who question Nintendo's ability to pick up momentum and keep their FY 2013 promises. Questioning that is quite justified.

I'm criticizing the responses here that are acting like the Nintendo headquarters is on fire with this terrible and shocking news. It's perfectly in line with what Nintendo told people to expect. FY 2013 is a whole other ball of wax.

And I'm telling you that it's not the fact that Nintendo met thrice-revised expectations that people are criticizing here (besides the people who don't understand the context of the situation)...they're criticizing the lack of forward momentum for FY 2014.

Keep in mind that Nintendo was unable to meet their initial FY 2013 projections.

 

[BlockheadBrown]

You are going to be very disappointed if you think the next-gen consoles will be met with the same level of apathy as the Wii-U. Your slant is obviously towards Nintendo, you'll see with your own eyes. It should be familiar, remember the N64 and Gamecube days? Welcome back, for better or worse.

Not really. I have a Wii U and I like Nintendo. I also like Sony and have liked MS in the past. I also like the idea of the Ouya and hope it does well. I don't hate any of them. More to the point, I would not be surprised to see that initial release surge for both consoles and then have the numbers dwindle down, similar to the Wii U.

 

[Daingurse]

Not really. I have a Wii U and I like Nintendo. I also like Sony and have liked MS in the past. I also like the idea of the Ouya and hope it does well. I don't hate any of them. More to the point, I would not be surprised to see that initial release surge for both consoles and then have the numbers dwindle down, similar to the Wii U.

Wii-U numbers didn't dwindle down, they fell off a cliff.

 

[BlockheadBrown]

The "If Wii U fails then EVERYTHING will fail" mentality is even more damaging.

That's not the mentality I have. Then again, knowing your posts, I'm not surprised by your reaction.

Gamers move where the franchises and games are.

There's more to it than that, but I don't disagree with this.

 

[vdoggie]

Most of this is NOT a reflection of what Iwatta has not done... it's mostly the economic climate and how weak the yen is... stop being so reactionary about him.. it's ludicrous.. the biggest mistake he made was not expanding dev teams to handle the HD transition.. that should have been completed during the Wii era.. I'm talking 2-3 years before the Wii was dead..... this year will be extremely telling.. not only for Nintendo, but the whole "console industry" It's clearly getting ROCKED!! Instead of calling for peoples heads, why not have some patience and hope that it recovers.. it is for all intent purposes our favorite hobby!

 

[GiantBreadbug]

Of everything that's said about Iwata the one thing that I cannot understand is the software droughts. The guy keeps identifying it as a problem but then every Nintendo platform experiences the same situation again. Why can't Nintendo put out a steady stream of software? Or at least a somewhat regular schedule of tentpole releases? Say what you will about Nintendo's strategy, marketing, or tactics, they need to be putting out software for whatever direction they head in.

Maybe Iwata was a good developer but has no idea how to manage developers? There's something very wrong here.

Good points, but the issue I take with that is that the drought is only momentary. Unnecessary and unfortunate, but momentary. I believe that the Wii U's drought is just the result of some management fumbles, nothing outrage-worthy.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that the situation isn't as dire as it's being made out to be. I don't feel that some big corporate shakeup is needed, just some time. It sucks that this is where we're at with the console, but it is what it is.

 

[Shion]

Of everything that's said about Iwata the one thing that I cannot understand is the software droughts. The guy keeps identifying it as a problem but then every Nintendo platform experiences the same situation again. Why can't Nintendo put out a steady stream of software? Or at least a somewhat regular schedule of tentpole releases? Say what you will about Nintendo's strategy, marketing, or tactics, they need to be putting out software for whatever direction they head in.

Maybe Iwata was a good developer but has no idea how to manage developers? There's something very wrong here.

Lack of resources.

Nintendo simply isn't big enough to support two consoles without 3rd party support.

Mismanagement and lack preparation for HD development made things even worse.

 

[Mysterious]

What a happy coincidence that the only person in the entire world qualified to run Nintendo was already working there when they needed a CEO.

And who might that be?

 

[Thoraxes]

And what a notification system! A blue light flashes on your controller a couple of times to indicate that something has happened! What is that something? Is it a friend logging on? Has someone sent you a drawing on Miiverse? Is someone trying to invite you to a game? Or are they trying to call you via Wii Chat? You'll have to pause your game and go to the home screen to find out!

That 1 second I spend checking it out is really HORRIBLE!

OH THE HORROR!

 

[peanutbutterlatte]

So they will purchase it on their 3DS? If the ios and android experience is comparable nice, but touch will never replace buttons for me or most core gamers. These things can coexist, Nintendo is actively fighting this market at all times anyway, whether they acknowledge it or not.

No, I'm talking future. Imagine all the people set to buy 3DS's so they can continue enjoying the Pokemon series in October. Now imagine that they could play that on their phones. Literally thousands of potential sales lost, surely you can't ignore that. "Core gamers" isn't the consideration here.

 

[richiek]

You are going to be very disappointed if you think the next-gen consoles will be met with anywhere near the same level of apathy as the Wii-U. Your slant is obviously towards Nintendo, you'll see with your own eyes. It should be familiar, remember the N64 and Gamecube days? Welcome back, for better or worse.

The Nextbox's always online and no used games is already generating apathy for MS.

 

[Glass Joe]

And I'm telling you that it's not the fact that Nintendo met thrice-revised expectations that people are criticizing here (besides the people who don't understand the context of the situation)...they're criticizing the lack of forward momentum for FY 2014.

Keep in mind that Nintendo was unable to meet their initial FY 2013 projections.

I don't understand what we're arguing about. My post was directed to the people who don't understand the context of the situation (re-read even the first page as an example, the people that pop in saying "ouch" and "bomba.") Again, people questioning Nintendo's future forecasts have every right to be skeptical, myself included.

 

[prag16]

I'd be more concerned with the fact that Nintendo may have well fallen short of 4M Wii U's sold WW.

If they had 3.06 million in the channel at the end of December they could easily have had 4 million in the channel by March 31st. Though if too many of them are sitting around unsold, distributors and retailers can't be too happy.

 

[Daingurse]

No, I'm talking future. Imagine all the people set to buy 3DS's so they can continue enjoying the Pokemon series in October. Now imagine that they could play that on their phones. Literally thousands of potential sales lost, surely you can't ignore that. "Core gamers" isn't the consideration here.

Well frankly I don't care about all that. I own a 3DS and a tablet and I would always purchase games on the former before the latter if they were available on both, what other people do is their business. The dedicated handheld market may simply not be financially sustainable outside Japan.

It would still be in their best interest to pursue putting their games, even just their classic backlog on mobile devices.

 

[airmangataosenai]

That's nowhere close "Wii 2011-2012 levels."

what are you talking about?


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_products_published_by_Nintendo#Nintendo_DS

Look at all those games after 2006.

2007 looks fine yeah, 2008 and on when you don't count specific regional publishing things look kind of bleak. 2013 is a good year for 3DS, 2014 will mostly be leftovers of what doesn't make it this holiday and Smash.

 

[StreetsAhead]

be leftovers of what doesn't make it this holiday and Smash.

The only things not confirmed for the west yet are Band Brothers and Tomodachi Collection. Almost everything else is launching within a month of Japan this year, if not earlier (Donkey Kong, Zelda).

 

[prag16]

That's not the mentality I have. Then again, knowing your posts, I'm not surprised by your reaction.


There's more to it than that, but I don't disagree with this.

The thing is, for at least a year or two almost every popular franchise WILL still be on PS360 (and Wii U in some cases). We'll have to see what kind of array of exclusives PS4/Durango will have at/near launch before we can really speculate how they'll sell.

Just assuming they'll sell just because is clearly just as dumb as assuming they won't sell since Wii U stumbled out of the blocks.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

That 1 second I spend checking it out is really HORRIBLE!

OH THE HORROR!

Perhaps I'm in the middle of an online match of Tekken Tag, Sonic Racing, or Injustice, and the blue light flashes. I can't pause now to see what's up, as I'm in the middle of a matchup. Minutes later, I emerge victorious, but have forgotten what happened because I have terrible short term memory. Hours later, I click the home button and am barely able to make out that the Miiverse icon is pulsating. Oh, hey, it was a buddy wanting to know if I was up for a game.

Alternatively, I'm not doing anything important, but I'm trying to keep track of when a friend logs on. Every single time anything happens I get the same nondescript notification. A blink! Oh, it's just one of the many friends I barely talk to. A notification! Oh, same person had logged off and on. A notification! Oh, someone just sent me a stupid drawing.

That someone might consider this a good notification system just strikes me as absurd. There is at least one screen available, and often two with which to display a popup of what exactly is happening on the network. If that is obtrusive to some (maybe you prefer the blinking light system), then have a toggle that sets it up as it currently is.

 

[Azih]

Good points, but the issue I take with that is that the drought is only momentary. Unnecessary and unfortunate, but momentary. I believe that the Wii U's drought is just the result of some management fumbles, nothing outrage-worthy.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that the situation isn't as dire as it's being made out to be. I don't feel that some big corporate shakeup is needed, just some time. It sucks that this is where we're at with the console, but it is what it is.

The thing is that the droughts are pervasive, that not enough shaders article went back and pulled out Iwata quotes where for every machine he apologized for droughts and promised to do better next time. Wii, DS, 3DS, and now WiiU. After a certain point you have to say Iwata correctly identifies this as a problem but has repeatedly failed to fix it. (In fact what has he even done to try to fix it even?)

http://www.notenoughshaders.com/2013/04/02/satoru-iwata-hubris-versus-western-culture/

Shion, Nintendo has a lot of resources now and back in the "IT PRINTS MONEY" Days which lasted for years Nintendo had cash spurting out of its ears. What was Iwata doing with that insane influx of income? Why wasn't it invested into Nintendo's software muscle?

I don't think resources are the problem but I'd agree with you that the only possible cause of this could be management issues and lack of preparation. Which is pretty much all on Iwata and maybe Miyamoto.

 

[Aquamarine]

I don't understand what we're arguing about. My post was directed to the people who don't understand the context of the situation (re-read even the first page as an example, the people that pop in saying "ouch" and "bomba.") Again, people questioning Nintendo's future forecasts have every right to be skeptical, myself included.

Ehh, it's not worth splitting hairs about. I just need more sleep and I'm a bit cranky at the moment.

 

[Daingurse]

The Nextbox's always online and no used games is already generating apathy for MS.

You can say a lot of things bout the Nextbox but you can't say people don't care. Even the possibility of always online brings forth discussion and interest, albeit negative. People have a vested interested, because this shit could matter going forward.

 

[Elfforkusu]

Of everything that's said about Iwata the one thing that I cannot understand is the software droughts. The guy keeps identifying it as a problem but then every Nintendo platform experiences the same situation again. Why can't Nintendo put out a steady stream of software? Or at least a somewhat regular schedule of tentpole releases? Say what you will about Nintendo's strategy, marketing, or tactics, they need to be putting out software for whatever direction they head in.

Maybe Iwata was a good developer but has no idea how to manage developers? There's something very wrong here.

The delays in software correspond to quality software. Bioshock Infinite took 6 years, does that mean Irrational "has no idea how to manage developers"? Twilight Princess had numerous delays, and ended up being a great game for it. These may be bad things from a business perspective, but only in the narrow-minded, self-destructive "the stock price must rise every quarter" mindset.

If anything it's the opposite. Iwata gets it -- quality software takes time. And Nintendo, though they make hardware, is at its core a software company. You can't operate quarter to quarter or even year to year, you have to have a longer time frame in mind. Iwata does. As long as he's in charge, Nintendo will be fine long term.

I'm hoping they don't do anything rash, because as it so happens I like good games. I'm not saying the dude's irreplaceble or shouldn't be held acountable -- if they turn another loss this year, they need to move on. But it's going to be hard to find someone better.

Spoiler

They won't turn a loss this year.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

Lack of resources.

Nintendo simply isn't big enough to support two consoles without 3rd party support.

Mismanagement and lack preparation for HD development made things even worse.

And why aren't they? I agree that they failed to be prepared for bigger and better assets when they began development of HD titles, but Nintendo is the biggest dev in the world. It's just something off about their game scheduling and their output. They don't produce like they're the largest game company.

Do their individual games still run on different engines?

If they had 3.06 million in the channel at the end of December they could easily have had 4 million in the channel by March 31st. Though if too many of them are sitting around unsold, distributors and retailers can't be too happy.

For the 18 weeks this FQ accounts for NTDOY wouldve had to average 55K/week worldwide and still have had to move what was left unsold to consumers of that 3M. Bloomberg analysis said they fell short of 4M by 500K, which i see as being far more plausible, but still not bad.

 

[peanutbutterlatte]

Well frankly I don't care about all that. I own a 3DS and a tablet and I would always purchase games on the former before the latter if they were available on both, what other people do is their business. The dedicated handheld market may simply not be financially sustainable outside Japan.

It would still be in their best interest to pursue putting their games, even just their classic backlog on mobile devices.

Didn't you just say "look through someone else's eyes"?! You are not Nintendo's only customer! And you cannot deny that Nintendo's own games, and others on the system, cause people to buy a 3DS for it solely.

Their classic backlog I could sort of see happening, but when they release them at such a snail's pace on their own devices, I don't know how much of a difference it'd make.

 

[Daingurse]

The delays in software correspond to quality software. Bioshock Infinite took 6 years, does that mean Irrational "has no idea how to manage developers"? Twilight Princess had numerous delays, and ended up being a great game for it. These may be bad things from a business perspective, but only in the narrow-minded, self-destructive "the stock price must rise every quarter" mindset.

If anything it's the opposite. Iwata gets it -- quality software takes time. And Nintendo, though they make hardware, is at its core a software company. You can't operate quarter to quarter or even year to year, you have to have a longer time frame in mind. Iwata does. As long as he's in charge, Nintendo will be fine long term.

I'm hoping they don't do anything rash, because as it so happens I like good games. I'm not saying the dude's irreplaceble or shouldn't be held acountable -- if they turn another loss next year, they need to move on. But it's going to be hard to find someone better.

Spoiler

They won't turn a loss next year.

Jesus people, can rationalize anything. There is no excuse for this. Nintendo had more than enough time and momentum from the Wii's success to have quality content ready for launch instead of rushing lazy titles out the door like NSMBU, expecting it to sell like gangbusters.

Didn't you just say "look through someone else's eyes"?! You are not Nintendo's only customer! And you cannot deny that Nintendo's own games, and others on the system, cause people to buy a 3DS for it solely.

Their classic backlog I could sort of see happening, but when they release them at such a snail's pace on their own devices, I don't know how much of a difference it'd make.

Yes, look through other peoples eyes if you want to know what sells and what is appealing to the mainstream

I don't give a shit at all personally, give me games and I'll be happy. But if Nintendo wants to stack paper to the ceiling, this is what they should do.

 

[Daingurse]

Edit: Double Post again my bad.

 

[Petrae]

It'll be interesting to see the reactions if the Nextbox and PS4 have console sales similar to the Wii U.

This gen isn't like last gen. There isn't that immediate "OMG THIS IS SO DIFFERENT" feeling. You could see that comparing the PS2 to the 360 or PS3. You could also see that with the Wii (control/interface, not graphics). Arguably, Nintendo has something similar (but not as gripping or easy to see the value) with the Wii U's Gamepad. A similar example could be made with Kinect 2 and the new PS Eye (although Kinect already set the stage and expectations with this).

There are almost 300M consoles out there running current software. That's a far larger number than the previous generation (PS2/GC/XB). The tech may be 7 years old, but there are still new titles being released as well as a backlog of decent titles for all the systems. There's also some new players (Ouya, Gamestick, arguably iOS and Mobile). People may not be as motivated to spend money on any new consoles at release. Once the new releases start to dry up, maybe. Microsoft appears to be looking to extend the Xbox 360's life even further (to a more general public with the rumored XTV).

Grab your popcorn. This generation's going to be fun to watch!

I can see a scenario where PS4 and the new Xbox don't sell like gangbusters this holiday, though there are important variables that must be filled in before a better picture can be drawn.

Last-gen hardware is still being supported. Grand Theft Auto V will likely be one of the biggest games of the year, and unless we get surprised during E3 or maybe shortly thereafter, it's not going to be on the new-gen consoles-- at least not for awhile. Then there are the yearly franchises which will again be appealing to the masses: Madden 25, Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed, FIFA.

If Sony & MS drop pricing for last-gen hardware, as many are expecting, it becomes a budget-conscious purchase for many families with tons of back software new & used at cheap price points. Compare $150-$200 with $400+; buy a new console, extra controller, & games for $400 or buy just the hardware (which may not play last-gen games) and then fork over $60-$70+ for each new game plus extra controllers. The new stuff will be pretty, but worth the cost compared to still-supported last-gen stuff? Might be a tough sell.

It's subject to change, of course, but my thinking is that Q4 here in the US will still be dominated by the Xbox 360, with the PS3 just behind and 3DS in the mix as the games are finally starting to arrive again. The next tier will be new-gen hardware jockeying for position, likely Durango, PS4, and Wii U, in that order. Wii and DS likely have one more Q4 as well.

 

[vdoggie]

Also:

That may enable the company to post net income of 14 billion yen tomorrow, the company said in January."


Is it me or is the title misleading?

 

[D-e-f-]

Not really. I have a Wii U and I like Nintendo. I also like Sony and have liked MS in the past. I also like the idea of the Ouya and hope it does well. I don't hate any of them.

You're not negative/cynical enough towards Nintendo/WiiU, thus you're a blind raging fanboy. Haven't you read the pamphlet at the entrance?

 

[Elfforkusu]

Jesus people, can rationalize anything. There is no excuse for this. Nintendo had more than enough time and momentum from the Wii's success to have quality content ready for launch instead of rushing lazy titles out the door like NSMBU, expecting it to sell like gangbusters.

And their quality content (software) was delayed. The hardware wasn't.

I'm a software engineer (not in the games industry), this isn't rationalization. I simply don't give a crap about Nintendo's short term stock price. I want them to make great games. Your implicit argument seems to be "under Iwata, they won't exist or be able to make great games". I don't think that's true, logical, or anything other than short sighted and reactionary.

 

[peanutbutterlatte]

Yes, look through other peoples eyes if you want to know what sells and what is appealing to the mainstream

I don't give a shit at all personally, give me games and I'll be happy. But if Nintendo wants to stack paper to the ceiling, this is what they should do.

I'll tell you what sells; new Pokemon games. On one handheld. A handheld you have to buy if you want to keep enjoying new Pokemon. That shit sells.

 

[Daingurse]

I'll tell you what sells; new Pokemon games. On one handheld. A handheld you have to buy if you want to keep enjoying new Pokemon. That shit sells.

Or double dip and grab both markets, that's honestly what I believe.

 

[chaosblade]

You are going to be very disappointed if you think the next-gen consoles will be met with anywhere near the same level of apathy as the Wii-U. Your slant is obviously towards Nintendo, you'll see with your own eyes. It should be familiar, remember the N64 and Gamecube days? Welcome back, for better or worse.

You don't really have to look at things with a Nintendo bias to see that there is a possibility of next-gen consoles struggling.

For one, the large userbases of current consoles across the board means third parties are not going to want to dive into next-gen with exclusive games. Most of what we're hearing about right now that's not first party or first party-backed is cross-gen. People aren't going to buy a new console when their current console can play the new CoD or whatever.

Not only that, but the general market has shifted too. Not even factoring in things like other devices, online services are absolutely key more so than better tech. Buying a next-gen console is an arbitrary graphical upgrade at this point. Sure, you could say that about previous generations, but we're seeing diminishing returns. Look at stuff in that Killzone 3 raytracing thread. I'm a PC gamer first and foremost, so I can appreciate that kind of thing. But my 16 year old brother who plays online shooters and college football? My dad who plays the occasional driving game? They can't see the difference between Modern Warfare 2 on 360 and Crysis 3 maxed out on PC.

Maybe my anecdotal evidence doesn't apply to the average gamer. I don't know. You can't really base this kind of stuff on the hype you see online though. The people drooling over the PS4 here are the same sort of people who will happily pay five hundred ninety nine US dollars for a game console (or more), most people won't. But from my perspective, unless Sony and MS can push third parties to support their new platforms and drop support for their old ones ASAP, they're going to struggle. Probably not as much as the WiiU is now (and I think it's silly to assume the WiiU's current woes are not temporary), but I fully expect to see the market contract, not grow, next gen.

Edit: Petrae makes good points too that I missed.

 

[BlockheadBrown]

I can see a scenario where PS4 and the new Xbox don't sell like gangbusters this holiday, though there are important variables that must be filled in before a better picture can be drawn.

Last-gen hardware is still being supported. Grand Theft Auto V will likely be one of the biggest games of the year, and unless we get surprised during E3 or maybe shortly thereafter, it's not going to be on the new-gen consoles-- at least not for awhile. Then there are the yearly franchises which will again be appealing to the masses: Madden 25, Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed, FIFA.

If Sony & MS drop pricing for last-gen hardware, as many are expecting, it becomes a budget-conscious purchase for many families with tons of back software new & used at cheap price points. Compare $150-$200 with $400+; buy a new console, extra controller, & games for $400 or buy just the hardware (which may not play last-gen games) and then fork over $60-$70+ for each new game plus extra controllers. The new stuff will be pretty, but worth the cost compared to still-supported last-gen stuff? Might be a tough sell.

It's subject to change, of course, but my thinking is that Q4 here in the US will still be dominated by the Xbox 360, with the PS3 just behind and 3DS in the mix as the games are finally starting to arrive again. The next tier will be new-gen hardware jockeying for position, likely Durango, PS4, and Wii U, in that order. Wii and DS likely have one more Q4 as well.

Nicely said.

 

[~ZIO~]

The next consoles may not see what Wii U has, but you people are crazy of you think they're going to be a success at the get go.

They're going to be met with lukewarm reception. And expectations will not be met. Because expectations have been inflated due to the massive success this previous generation has seen. They will be the kick in the pants this industry needs to see it isn't what it was, and won't ever be again.

 

[Daingurse]

And their quality content (software) was delayed. The hardware wasn't.

I'm a software engineer (not in the games industry), this isn't rationalization. I simply don't give a crap about Nintendo's short term stock price. I want them to make great games. Your implicit argument seems to be "under Iwata, they won't exist or be able to make great games". I don't think that's true, logical, or anything other than short sighted and reactionary.

That's fine if you don't care about Nintendo's stock price, neither do I. Nintendo however is a business, and they care greatly, anything around a Gamecube in sales would be such a flop coming off the Wii. They have no quality software out there selling people on that console and it's Gaempad. Wtf did they expect to happen? No games no sales, and they will continue to hurt until it picks up.

You don't really have to look at things with a Nintendo bias to see that there is a possibility of next-gen consoles struggling.

For one, the large userbases of current consoles across the board means third parties are not going to want to dive into next-gen with exclusive games. Most of what we're hearing about right now that's not first party or first party-backed is cross-gen. People aren't going to buy a new console when their current console can play the new CoD or whatever.

Not only that, but the general market has shifted too. Not even factoring in things like other devices, online services are absolutely key more so than better tech. Buying a next-gen console is an arbitrary graphical upgrade at this point. Sure, you could say that about previous generations, but we're seeing diminishing returns. Look at stuff in that Killzone 3 raytracing thread. I'm a PC gamer first and foremost, so I can appreciate that kind of thing. But my 16 year old brother who plays online shooters and college football? My dad who plays the occasional driving game? They can't see the difference between Modern Warfare 2 on 360 and Crysis 3 maxed out on PC.

Maybe my anecdotal evidence doesn't apply to the average gamer. I don't know. You can't really base this kind of stuff on the hype you see online though. The people drooling over the PS4 here are the same sort of people who will happily pay five hundred ninety nine US dollars for a game console (or more), most people won't. But from my perspective, unless Sony and MS can push third parties to support their new platforms and drop support for their old ones ASAP, they're going to struggle. Probably not as much as the WiiU is now (and I think it's silly to assume the WiiU's current woes are not temporary), but I fully expect to see the market contract, not grow, next gen.

Struggle? Possibly. Be met with same amount of apathy as the Wii-U has? Absolutely not. I have never said any next gen console is going to blow up and neither has anyone really in this thread. I could care less what the PS4 or Durago sell, the whole industry is backing them, support will be no issue. I'm planning on picking up a PS4 at launch. I don't even understand why we're talking about them. This is a Nintendo thread, let's stay focused.

 

[Elfforkusu]

That's fine if you don't care about Nintendo's stock price, neither do I. Nintendo however is a business, and they care greatly, anything around a Gaemcube in sales would be such a flop coming off the Wii. They have no quality software out selling that console and it's Gaempad. Wtf do they expect to happen. No games no sales, and they will continue to hurt until it picks up.

Completely agree. But it's early. 3DS had more or less the same thing happen after it's launch, and they salvaged that situation.

It's relevant to note that Nintendo seems to be trying to resolve their "bad launches" problem with their unified platform idea (however they're phrasing it). But they have to survive the WiiU and launch the next thing before we see the results of that strategy.