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[Torokil]

 

[MatrixMan.EXE]

Want us to quote the Vita prediction thread and how it would destroy the 3DS? Cerny please go make Knack 2 good instead.

You sound so bitter lol Christ.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

These predictions were only 2 months away from the Wii U's launch.

I was talking more about the PS4 and XB1 predictions. Only explanation for the Wii U predictions is that it was a safe choice because of the previous console. But we all know previous success guarantees nothing in this industry.

 

[Quonny]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=41733669&postcount=300

LUL

 

[StrongBlackVine]

Like with the Vita?

I feel your pain. Let it all out!

I'm personally happy that no more resources are being wasted on handheld.

 

[Acquiescence]

The funniest thing about that thread to me is that it eventually got locked because people would not stop bumping it.

Also, with the way everyone is ragging on the Switch right now, I half expect it to be a smash success.

 

[Eolz]

You sound so bitter lol Christ.

I can't stand idolization of Cerny (or some other industry people) while conveniently forgetting the rest of his works.

 

[Phreak47]

Like with the Vita?

So, because the Vita wasn't a success, he somehow can't be given credit for the PS4 being a success? I don't see the logic here. They listened to the developers and gave them much if not more than what they wanted. What does the Vita have to do with anything?

 

[SchrodingerC]

LOL @ all of the dead Sony posts.

Not sure why people were predicting the worse for Sony, they were steadily improving near the end of gen7 and the general response to this was positive.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

lol

I can't stand idolization of Cerny (or some other industry people) while conveniently forgetting the rest of his works.

I think it is just giving credit where credit is due.

 

[Kingpin Rogers]

And now gaf seem to be proclaiming that Switch will be a flop. Clearly gonna a be a massive hit then haha.

 

[jett]

You know, I'd like to see how many of these people also shit on Pachter's predictions, lol.

edit:

I don't think it's ridiculous at all. When the PS4/720 drop, the Wii U will find itself in the same situation the Wii did. Even as a PS360 analog it can't get ports today.

I believe it will be by far the most short lived Nintendo console ever released, Virtual Boy aside.

Feeling prettay, prettay good at my nostradamus skills

 

[ianpm31]

PS3 was selling better than 360 launch aligned. That thread is full of dumb posts, but Switch is in a tough position.

Xbox dominating npds blinded many people on the global perspective. Remember npds = the world

 

[MatrixMan.EXE]

I can't stand idolization of Cerny (or some other industry people) while conveniently forgetting the rest of his works.

Yeah but, the Vita is an impressive piece of tech, which is what he should be credited for. I'm not sure it makes sense to fault him because it then went on to sell badly. And sure, he was behind Knack, but the amount of great stuff he's spearheaded or been a part of greatly outweigh that.

 

[GarthVaderUK]

Also, with the way everyone is ragging on the Switch right now, I half expect it to be a smash success.

I think with the price, sparse launch line-up and release schedule, lack of 3rd party support, over-reliance on Wii U ports, weird online decisions (voice chat via phone app, charging subscription with a poor incentive of NES and SNES trials) and nothing that looks like it's going to be wildly successful with the mass market, a long-term smash success is pretty doubtful.

 

[Audible Phonetics]

Sony = Doomed, they lost all the big exlusives, Final Fantasy, Metal Gear, etc. They have their first party studios and IPS but they aren't system sellers. I think we will see Naughty Dog buying themselves back from Sony and becoming an independent studio at the first hint of trouble with PS4. Microsoft will probably try to make PS4 launch lineup look dry, by getting timed exclusivity for Star Wars 1313, Watch_Dogs etc. They could also sabotage major third party engines by paying Epic or Crytek (who they are very close to) and asking them to cripple the engines, to make Xbox 720 look good.

 

[Omega Kirby]

Gaf is just as bad as prediciting console war outcomes as predicting US presidential election outcomes

 

[88random]

Too bad I wasn't so active at the time. I thought Sony was in a good place nearing the end of 7th gen and that they learned from their mistakes. And while Wii was a great win for Nintendo, it lost them the next gen, they were never going to recapture the casuals again and I think that casual image lost them some of the gaming public too.

 

[Anarky]

lmao Gaf dont know shit about shit.

 

[Caipirinha]

I've been around since pre-PS3 launch, Nintendo fans never change and never learn.

 

[stryke]

I didn't realise Gez changed his name to Card Boy.

 

[Ogawa-san]

Most of that thread was people trying to pass off what they were hoping would happen as credible, well thought out predictions.

That's like saying if people had put more thought into it they could've predicted MS' 2013 E3 presentation, the infamous livestreamed trainwreck where blew up all the momentum they had with the 360.

 

[Unknown One]

Gaf is just as bad as prediciting console war outcomes as predicting US presidential election outcomes

Or the Senate race. Gaf was proclaiming that the Democrats will keep the majority at the time.

 

[rekameohs]

Nintendo had that horrendous E3 2011 debut of the Wii U and there were still that many people thinking it would sell the best?

 

[gaming_noob]

Nice. I have high hopes for Scorpio now

 

[bidguy]

I've been around since pre-PS3 launch, Nintendo fans never change and never learn.

that long huh

 

[I-hate-u]

These predictions were not crazy at the time. Shows how well Sony executed their launch leagues better than MS and Nintendo. They were nearly flawless.

 

[Rikimaru82]

Just show how much morons there are on NeoGAF. Anybody betting agains Sony is plain dumb. Even with all the NEGATIVITY last gen they still outsold X360 worldwide. Nintend has not been Nintendo since the SNES era.

Peronal favorites. 2D=SNES,3D=PS1

 

[RichiRamjag]

I realise that, I didn't have a prediction in the 2012 thread unfortunately But still, pretty spot on, no?

I guess, but at the period you made those statements, they weren't amazing predictions. Imo at least. Definitely better than most chuckleheads here.

 

[Unknown One]

That's like saying if people had put more thought into it they could've predicted MS' 2013 E3 presentation, the infamous livestreamed trainwreck where blew up all the momentum they had with the 360.

They could have predicted the direction Microsoft was going to take. Near the end of 360's life, Microsoft was heavily delving into the Kinect. They even regulated Rare to it for a while.

While you couldn't predict DRM and TV/Sports. You could predict Kinect.

 

[Rikimaru82]

They could have predicted the direction Microsoft was going to take. Near the end of 360's life, Microsoft was heavily delving into the Kinect. They even regulated Rare to it for a while.

While you couldn't predict DRM and TV/Sports. You could predict Kinect.

Agree

 

[NSESN]

I've been around since pre-PS3 launch, Nintendo fans never change and never learn.

It happens with all fanbases. Sony fans predicted that Vita would be a success, Nintendo fans expected Wii U to do Wii numbers, and Microsoft fans expected 720/One to dominate.
Calling one fanbase feels wrong when all of them do this.

 

[Vibranium]

Haha, someone actually thought Uplay and Origin would kill Steam.

And the Windows 10 store probably makes even less money than EA and Ubi on their storefronts.

 

[FelipeMGM]

Sony laughing big time at this thread ATM

 

[Raonak]

I can't stand idolization of Cerny (or some other industry people) while conveniently forgetting the rest of his works.

What are you talking about? Hardware wise, the Vita was amazing, OLED, 540p, multitouch, 2 fucking analog sticks. It was essentially a generation better than the 3DS.
Hardware was not the reason for the vita's failure.

Cerny can't be blamed for it's lack of compelling software &marketing

 

[SeanR1221]

These predictions were not crazy at the time. Shows how well Sony executed their launch leagues better than MS and Nintendo. They were nearly flawless.

Exactly. It's not like we're in a situation where we're waiting for the PS5 and XB(2?) to drop in a year. The landscape is completely different.

3 separate things happened that threw these predictions way off. MS fucked up their launch, Sony nailed theirs and Nintendo stumbled out of the gate.

Currently, Sony and MS are hitting their strides and all eyes are on Nintendo. Much easier to make predictions with a lot less variables.

 

[fhqwhgads]

And yet people are still dead set on the prediction that the Switch is going to do even worse than the Wii U and be DOA. People are gonna laugh at the old thread and yet won't learn the lesson that's been told here.

 

[ianpm31]

It happens with all fanbases. Sony fans predicted that Vita would be a success, Nintendo fans expected Wii U to do Wii numbers, and Microsoft fans expected 720/One to dominate.
Calling one fanbase feels wrong when all of them do this.

It does to certain extent but I didn't understand why people thought xb would dominate. Ms has never won a generation and their brand doesn't translate well on a global scale. Majority of xb sales come from us/uk and it's been like that for all 3 of their generations

 

[Ogawa-san]

While you couldn't predict DRM and TV/Sports. You could predict Kinect.

I expected them to keep pushing Kinect, we all did. But if I had said "there will be no Xbox Next (or whatever the codename was) bundle without Kinect, and that's the reason it'll cost $100 more than the PS4", I would've been quoted and laughed at the same way people are doing here.

 

[Lion Heart]

It was mainly wishful thinking, not many people predicting with their heads. Don't underestimate the amount of Sony haters on this forum.

 

[MoonFrog]

Most of that thread was people trying to pass off what they were hoping would happen as credible, well thought out predictions.

That's what we do here a lot of the time...Not even necessarily what people want to have happen; perhaps just the narrative they are wedded to and shapes their thinking.

Tbh, my 'predications' are very much cast in the shadow of my hopes and interests moderated by my pessimism, my awareness of my pessimism, my history of having hopes thwarted both with gaming and entertainment in general, etc. and given a degree of sophistication through the general forum sophistry we engage in.

 

[Zombie James]

Nintendo had that horrendous E3 2011 debut of the Wii U and there were still that many people thinking it would sell the best?

And then when it didn't it was because the console market was dying, not because the system sucked. Fun times.

 

[Already Torn]

I like the guy who got it right just by assuming all of GAF would be wrong

 

[Unknown One]

I expected them to keep pushing Kinect, we all did. But if I had said "there will be no Xbox Next (or whatever the codename was) bundle without Kinect, and that's the reason it'll cost $100 more than the PS4", I would've been quoted and laughed at the same way people are doing here.

I think people would have probably laughed at you here as well. I was predicting the same at the time and there is no way I want to rile up people on the topic of system wars.

And then when it didn't it was because the console market was dying, not because the system sucked. Fun times.

Nintendo fans are hilarious at times.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

And yet people are still dead set on the prediction that the Switch is going to do even worse than the Wii U and be DOA. People are gonna laugh at the old thread and yet won't learn the lesson that's been told here.

Wii aside, Nintendo's home consoles have been on decline.

I'm not saying Switch will continue with that decline (I don't think Switch will be much more successful than Wii U though) but the predictions align with Nintendo's usual performance.

 

[Theslammer]

I like this interaction:

The WiiU is going to bomb. They can´t reproduce the WiiMote casual hype and have nothing to offer for core gamers. I expect sales somewhere around Gamecube -N64 levels.

this thread...it's gonna be a goldmine, five years tops.

The second person was right in his own way, but it's funny that he said that about the prediction that nailed it with the WiiU unable to reproduce the casual hype.

 

[Caipirinha]

It happens with all fanbases. Sony fans predicted that Vita would be a success, Nintendo fans expected Wii U to do Wii numbers, and Microsoft fans expected 720/One to dominate.
Calling one fanbase feels wrong when all of them do this.

Sony fans were forced to accept reality last gen and did. Microsoft fans may have a poor understanding of the company but their expectations have generally been within the realms of sanity..

Nintendo fans are truly not on this planet anymore considering how that company has acted and performed for the last 10 years, and I say that as someone like Colin, a "reformed" Nintendo fan who has owned every Nintendo console bar the Virtual Boy and Wii U.

 

[broncobuster]

Nintendo had that horrendous E3 2011 debut of the Wii U and there were still that many people thinking it would sell the best?

Really was a spectacularly bad showing. No notable games, no strong appeal for the hardware, and worse, they kept hiding the console and led to the idea it's a tablet for the existing Wii. The big finale was third party devs saying they'll bring the same games from 5 and 6 year old consoles to it (we'll learn later they didn't). Wii U had a couple great games in its short lifespan, but the writing was on the wall for its success after how poorly Nintendo marketed the thing.

 

[Moze]

How did anyone on here think the Wii U was going to be a success? And so close to the release of it too. That is madness.

 

[MoonFrog]

Sony fans were forced to accept reality last gen and did. Microsoft fans may have a poor understanding of the company but their expectations have generally been within the realms of sanity..

Nintendo fans are truly not on this planet anymore considering how that company has acted and performed for the last 10 years, and I say that as someone like Colin, a "reformed" Nintendo fan who has owned every Nintendo console bar the Virtual Boy and Wii U.

I wish Stockholm syndrome and this reformed shit would go away. Way to pathologize with a broad brush people with different dreams and desires than you just because the zeitgeist isn't at their back. Personally I don't give a damn about the zeitgeist and Nintendo on the whole offers me more of what I want. That's not being insane or being conditioned and no you haven't seen the light and become reformed. You just have different tastes and desires.