So with the news that Bernie has won the Michigan primary, it comes as a shock to all of us... except for one person. His name is Tyler Pedigo.
I've been following Tyler's predictions for a couple of weeks now, and I've noticed that his statistical model has been getting astonishingly more accurate with every primary/caucus day. He predicted every Super Tuesday state with the exception of Minnesota, and he's corrected predicted every state since then, with fairly similar margins to the actual results.
As I understand it, Tyler uses a combination of social media and Google trends data points, and refines his predictions by honing in on what variables are key to showing how likely a state is going to vote for one candidate over the other.
Well, yesterday, he looked at his data, as was surprised to find that it was predicting an upset, despite the poll numbers.
Here's what he had to say about it:
Link
What's incredible is that this guy doesn't rely on polls; just the internet and some fancy math.
Personally, I think that he should be on national television explaining his model, after seeing tonight's results.