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[donny2112]

ITT, predict for the NPD April 2016 retail period (April 3-30, 2016) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, May 10th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: April 3-30, 2016 (4 weeks, March was 5 weeks)
NPD Release: Thursday, May 12th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:
Note: WIU will only be counted for unit results and cardinal order bonus. It is not included for point results directly.

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting

Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K       [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000    [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000     [XB1] - 200000

Potential hardware impacting events in April:
Xbox One "temporary" price drop to $299 - 28 days

Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

March's Results (used for predictions)
1. PS4 - 330K
2, XB1 - 240K
3. 3DS - 170K
4. WIU - 65K

March 2015 NPD thread
April 2015 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive

 

[Frosta]

[3DS] 140k
[PS4] 235K
[WIU] 60k
[XB1] 180K

 

[Abdiel]

Hmm, it's up!

So. Quantum Break bundle went over like a dead fish. IE, with a wet thud. Even less impressive than the Division bundle, as far as I could tell, and that was depressing. Every bundled picked up was accompanied by a trade in of an existing system, so it seemed like it went along with just people wanting the white model. No shame there though, I did the same thing with my launch PS4 with the Destiny bundle, except I sold mine to a friend instead of a trade in.

PS4 lead without much fanfare. QB didn't do anything to move the needle as far as system sales. Overall, a pretty bland month. Ratchet seeing more momentum than expected after a muted start with the positive word of mouth and budget pricing, though the movie doesn't seem to be doing so hot with reviewers, so, that's a bust.

 

[Javin98]

Hmm, thread went live earlier than I expected. I will just drop some preliminary numbers now and wait for Welfare's weekly average sales analysis.

[PS4] 194K
[XB1] 156K
[WIU] 35K
[3DS] 90K

 

[Shizza]

[PS4] 180K
[XB1] 177K
[3DS] 102K
[WIU] 40K

 

[Opt1kon_]

PS4] 254K
[XB1] 165K
[3DS] 84K
[WIU] 33K

Will be updating....

 

[astrogamer]

[3DS] 100k
[PS4] 213k
[WIU] 42k
[XB1] 162k

 

[robo]

[PS4] 211K
[XB1] 155K
[3DS] 76k
[WIU] 38k

 

[Ryng_tolu]

[PS4] 185,000
[XB1] 150,000
[3DS] 100,000
[WIU] 35,000

 

[MANUELF]

[3DS] 110,000
[PS4] 220,000
[WIU] 45,000
[XB1] 175,000

First time predicting, hope I do okay

 

[Jarod McChicken]

Hmm, it's up!

So. Quantum Break bundle went over like a dead fish. IE, with a wet thud. Even less impressive than the Division bundle, as far as I could tell, and that was depressing. Every bundled picked up was accompanied by a trade in of an existing system, so it seemed like it went along with just people wanting the white model. No shame there though, I did the same thing with my launch PS4 with the Destiny bundle, except I sold mine to a friend instead of a trade in.

PS4 lead without much fanfare. QB didn't do anything to move the needle as far as system sales. Overall, a pretty bland month. Ratchet seeing more momentum than expected after a muted start with the positive word of mouth and budget pricing, though the movie doesn't seem to be doing so hot with reviewers, so, that's a bust.

Thanks ! Momentum is definitly a fitting word for Ratchet when we look at the Amazon rankings, in any case.

No particular comment about Dark Souls III ? In the UK the game enjoyed the best launch of the IP if I recall, do you feel that could be the case also in the US ?

 

[Abdiel]

Thanks ! Momentum is definitly a fitting word for Ratchet when we look at the Amazon rankings, in any case.

No particular comment about Dark Souls III ? In the UK the game enjoyed the best launch of the IP if I recall, do you feel that could be the case also in the US ?

DSIII was a very solid launch, but it was multiplat, leaning heavily in favor of PS4 in our stores, but also didn't really result in new hardware sales, so to speak. I typically comment on the exclusives people are curious about, and any bundles first and foremost, but DSIII did very well for itself.

 

[Raylan]

[3DS] 90K
[PS4] 210K
[WIU] 40K
[XB1] 180K

Software:
Ratchet & Clank >>>> MLB 16 The Show >>>> Quantum Break

Come at me, bros!

 

[Sterok]

DSIII was a very solid launch, but it was multiplat, leaning heavily in favor of PS4 in our stores, but also didn't really result in new hardware sales, so to speak. I typically comment on the exclusives people are curious about, and any bundles first and foremost, but DSIII did very well for itself.

Did Star Fox do anything noteworthy?

 

[Blanquito]

Yay another month.

 

[demigod]

Abdiel can you tell us which sold more, R&C or QB? Did the "limited spring sale" allow xbox one to outsell ps4?

 

[donny2112]

Hmm, thread went live earlier than I expected. I will just drop some preliminary numbers now and wait for Welfare's weekly average sales analysis.

Preview:
April is dead. May is deader.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

I swear if Ethomaz is still first i'm done.

 

[Javin98]

Preview:
April is dead. May is deader.

Sounds about right, thanks for spoiling NPD again, donny.

 

[archnemesis]

Thanks for bumping the prediction thread archive, donny!

 

[jjonez18]

[3DS] 120k
[PS4] 175K
[WIU] 45k
[XB1] 170K

1) DSIII - 550k (70/30)
4) MLB - 240k
8) R&C - 200k
10) QB - 180k


Uncharted) Star Fox - 100k

 

[Ravage_Hydra]

[3DS] 90K
[PS4] 185K
[WIU] 40K
[XB1] 195K

 

[Chobel]

[3DS] 85k
[PS4] 190k
[WIU] 32k
[XB1] 170k

 

[Welfare]

Hey, it’s that time of the month again! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of March and April. This is when it is beneficial to compare weekly averages and not just simple month to month, because March is a 5 week month while April is only 4. I’ve also taken a bit of time to gather software sales and potential hardware deals to give a bigger scope of how and why the drop to April might be severe or maybe even less so.

2010

Xbox 360 March: 338K / 5 = 67,600
Xbox 360 April: 185K / 4 = 46,250

Weekly average down 32%

PS3 March: 314K / 5 = 62,800
PS3 April: 181K / 4 = 45,250

Weekly average down 28%

Wii March: 558K / 5 = 111,600
Wii April: 277K / 4 = 69,250

Weekly average down 38%

Notable Releases in April

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Conviction [486,100]
Super Street Fighter IV [108,000]

[u]PS3[/u]
Super Street Fighter IV [143,000]

[u]Wii[/u]
Monster Hunter Tri [126,000]

2011

Xbox 360 March: 433K / 5 = 86,600
Xbox 360 April: 297K / 4 = 74,250

Weekly average down 16%

PS3 March: 365K / 5 = 73,000
PS3 April: 204K / 4 = 51,000

Weekly average down 30%

Wii March: 290K / 5 = 58,000
Wii April: 172K / 4 = 43,000

Weekly average down 26%

Notable Releases in April

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Mortal Kombat 
Portal 2
Michael Jackson: The Experience

[u]PS3[/u]
SOCOM 4
Mortal Kombat
Portal 2
Michael Jackson: The Experience

[u]Wii[/u]
Wii Sports + Wii Sports Resort + Wii Remote Plus Black model bundle $169

2012

Xbox 360 March: 371K / 5 = 74,200
Xbox 360 April: 236K / 4 = 59,000

Weekly average down 20%

PS3 March: 337K / 5 = 67,400
PS3 April: 172K / 4 = 43,000

Weekly average down 36%

Wii March: 175K / 5 = 35,000
Wii April: 91K / 4 = 22,750

Weekly average down 35%

Notable Releases in April

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Kinect Star Wars 320GB Bundle $449

2013

Xbox 360 March: 261K / 5 = 52,200
Xbox 360 April: 130K / 4 = 32,500

Weekly average down 38%

PS3 March: 211K / 5 = 42,200
PS3 April: 102K / 4 = 25,500

Weekly average down 40%

Wii March: 91K / 5 = 18,200
Wii April: 44K / 4 = 11,000

Weekly average down 40%

Wii U March: 67K / 5 = 13,400
Wii U April: 36K / 4 = 9,000 (so close)

Weekly average down 33%

Notable Releases in April

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Injustice: Gods Among Us

[u]PS3[/u]
Injustice: Gods Among Us

[u]Wii U[/u]
Injustice: Gods Among Us

2014

Xbox 360 March: 111K / 5 = 22,200
Xbox 360 April: 71K / 4 = 17,750

Weekly average down 20%

Xbox One March: 311K / 5 = 62,200
Xbox One April: 115K / 4 = 28,750

Weekly average down 54%

PS3 March: 68K / 5 = 13,600
PS3 April: 35K / 4 = 8,750

Weekly average down 36%

PS4 March: 371K / 5 = 74,200
PS4 April: 199K / 4 = 49,750

Weekly average down 33%

Wii March: 28K / 5 = 5,600
Wii April: 18K / 4 = 4,500

Weekly average down 20%

Wii U March: 70K / 5 = 14,000
Wii U April: 48K / 4 = 12,000

Weekly average down 14%

Notable Releases in April

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Titanfall [483,000]

2015

Xbox 360/PS3/Wii = Basically dead (and no numbers were leaked for most of 2015) 

Xbox One March: 229K / 5 = 45,800
Xbox One April: 187K / 4 = 46,750

Weekly average up 2%

PS4 March: 330K / 5 = 66,000
PS4 April: 174K / 4 = 43,500

Weekly average down 34%

Wii U March: 83K / 5 = 16,600
Wii U April: 43K / 4 = 10,750

Weekly average down 35%

Notable Releases in April

[u]Xbox One[/u]
Mortal Kombat X [>516k]

[3 weeks] Gamestop Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $125 towards Xbox One. [$225]

[1 week] Best Buy Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $175 towards Xbox One [$175]

[u]PS4[/u]
Mortal Kombat X [>734k]

2016 March Weekly averages

Xbox One: 242K / 5 = 48,400
PS4: 330K / 5 = 66,000 (Or one full month of Wii U sales lol)
Wii U: 66K / 5 = 13,200

Notable Releases in April

[u]Xbox One[/u]
Quantum Break
Dark Souls 3
[3 weeks] Gamestop Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $125 towards Xbox One. [$199]

[u]PS4[/u]
Dark Souls 3
Ratchet & Clank

[u]Wii U[/u]
Star Fox Zero (?)

To make this post not super long, if you want the notes for this month, head over to the beta post here.

[XB1] 205K
[PS4] 180K
[3DS] 100K
[WIU] 35k

 

[Conduit]

[PS4] 230K
[XB1] 180K
[3DS] 80K
[WIU] 35k


My prediction is that PS4 will win. But not by a huge margin. Anyway, MS had a trade-in deal at Gamestop for a almost whole April. Sony also had a trade-in deal at Gamestop in April for one week.

According to ethomaz, 299$ price didn't do shit ( http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=201275528&postcount=1734 ), so MS had this "Black Friday" deal for 349$ ( http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=201270026&postcount=1723 ):

MS temporary price is working so well that they decided to go even cheaper...

- 1TB Xbone
- Halo 5
- Gears Ultimate
- Rare Replay
- Ori

And also Ratchet >>>> QB

EDIT :

And i also think that PS4 will be slightly up YOY.

 

[Rymuth]

[PS4] 210K
[XB1] 165K
[WIU] 55K
[3DS] 90K

In honor of Rex, I'm going to do some predictions. Not Rex Crazy Predictions™, just my own thoughts and musings.

• Quantum Break will sell WORSE than The Order 1886
• Quantum Break will sell LESS than Ratchet and Clank
• Dark Souls 3 will chart at #1,
• Dark Souls 3 split will be 75/25 in PS4's favor

 

[Javin98]

In honor of Rex, I'm going to do some predictions. Not Rex Crazy Predictions™, just my own thoughts and musings.

Your wording implies that Rex was permanently banned. I hope that's not the case.

 

[ThoughtsOfSpeaking]

Wait, the Xbox one was $299 this whole month?

At specfic stores or everywhere?

 

[Conduit]

Wait, the Xbox one was $299 this whole month?

At specfic stores or everywhere?

Xbone is at 299$ since February ( Amazon specific then ).

 

[Rymuth]

Your wording implies that Rex was permanently banned. I hope that's not the case.

I don't think he is and if I had implied it, I apologize. It just seems like it's going to be a long ban (3 months, maybe?)

 

[Welfare]

Rex got banned again?

Wait, the Xbox one was $299 this whole month?

At specfic stores or everywhere?

Nationwide, started in late March.

 

[ThoughtsOfSpeaking]

Xbone is at 299$ since February ( Amazon specific then ).

Seems to have gone over with a bit of a whimper......

 

[ZachzOOming]

[PS4] 187K
[XB1] 148K
[3DS] 86K
[WIU] 35K

 

[Javin98]

I don't think he is and if I had implied it, I apologize. It just seems like it's going to be a long ban (3 months, maybe?)

It's cool, it's just that when you said "in honor of Rex", I kinda got the feeling that he won't be back. I guess when you mean he won't be back for a while it makes sense as well.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

I Will post My prediction bold and not when i'll back At home.

Also Welfare Come on, Star Fox 0 as notable release lol.

P.S

If i understand correctly, Rex should back before the E3. Maybe i'm wrong though.

 

[noobie]

[XB1] 165K
[PS4] 199K
[3DS] 101K
[WIU] 38k

 

[Bitch Pudding]

[PS4] 200K
[XB1] 150K
[3DS] 100K
[WIU] 50K

 

[Welfare]

Also Welfare Come on, Star Fox 0 as notable release lol.

A Wii U game is notable in of itself

 

[DriftingSpirit]

[3DS] 90K
[PS4] 190K
[WIU] 40K
[XB1] 170K

Oh, and more good news for R&C -

Don't ask me why they chose a picture with Ratchet looking upset about this news lol.

Ratchet seeing more momentum than expected after a muted start with the positive word of mouth and budget pricing, though the movie doesn't seem to be doing so hot with reviewers, so, that's a bust.

This is what I like to read! Well, at least the first part anyway...

Thank you kindly.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Double. I sorry.

 

[Chobel]

[XB1] 207K
[PS4] 177K
[3DS] 99K
[WIU] 37k

That one hell of a prediction, and 30K more?

 

[Darth Smurf X]

[PS4] 215K
[XB1] 175K
[WIU] 50K
[3DS] 85K

DS3, R&C, MLB, QB, SF0

 

[Ombala]

[3DS] 94K
[PS4] 205K
[WIU] 44K
[XB1] 167K
Q

 

[Welfare]

That one hell of a prediction, and 30K more?

Yeah. Looking at historical data, I don't see the XB1 not selling more this month. 30k more might be a bit much, but it's not like this is the start of a comeback. May will be a blood bath in comparison.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

I wonder where The Division is going to fall.

DS3, R&C, QB, MLB, SFZ, GTA, Minecraft.

Including The Division, that is 8.

What will be the other two?

 

[Crimson_Gold]

[PS4] 196K
[XB1] 147K
[3DS] 83K
[WIU] 41K

 

[Cow Goes Moo]

[3DS] 85k
[PS4] 165k
[WIU] 30k
[XB1] 170k

 

[Stanng243]

[PS4] 250K
[XB1] 125K
[3DS] 65K
[WIU] 37K

 

[Elandyll]

[PS4] 200K
[XB1] 170K
[3DS] 110K
[WIU] 40K

Best chance whole year for XB1 to sell more (before Holidays, always volatile due to price and bundle sensitivity), but even with a month long trade-in at Gamestop (only $100, vs $150 in the past) and their biggest sw release of the year before GeoW4 with Quantum Break I think they'll still fall short.

Gonna be a dead month, but with an incredible sw lineup in May (for PC and PS4 at the very least, but 3rd party too so XB1 could see a boost) things should imo ramp up next month in spite of seasonality history.


Current Amazon hw rankings for April:

#20- PS4 COD Blods 3 bundle/ $349
#85- XB1 QB bundle / $349
#92- PS4 standard / $349

 

[GifGafIsTheBestGaf]

[PS4] 190K
[XB1] 175K
[3DS] 90K
[WIU] 37K