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April U.S. Primaries |OT| Vote in 20 Turns for World Leader

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N

Neoweee

Member
Darryl M R said:
What stage of grief are most Bernie supporters in? I don't see how there is any hope left for him to win the nomination.
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TYT election night coverage has been stages of grief in a microcosm. March was Denial. Last week was Anger. This week was a mix of Bargaining and Depression (Cenk Bargaining, Anna Depression, Dore still Angry).

Box of Kittens said:
I don't necessarily disagree with this. He did a pretty poor job in 2014 for example. But he's really shined this cycle, mostly because he was relatively early in recognizing that Trump's support was here to stay and also because he's done a better job of understanding the impact of Republican delegate allocation rules.
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Delegate rules are a mess, though, and Trump cleaning up has been fueled by a mostly unpredictable paralysis among his competitors and plummeting voter turnout that has pushed him ahead of the 40% barrier he has been stuck behind for months.
 
B

border

Member
Are there any good (or rather, amusing) highlights from The Young Turks last night? I had to work late and they were off-air by the time I got home.
 
N

Neoweee

Member
border said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tj5wZy3crko

Is this the flip out you're referring to? His election-night meltdowns have been a a guilty pleasure, from Super Tuesday 2's "This was Hilary Clinton's last good night!" to this week's seemingly desperate "There's still 12 primaries left!" straw-grasping.
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No, his true meltdown was arguing that the head-to-head match-up polls actually mean something at this point and Bernie is demonstrably the stronger candidate, because his last Vermont campaign was really negative.

Like... what?
 
D

dakun

Member
even as someone who is not an American but would rather see Bernie win. TYT is an embarrassment. They have become the FOX News for the left.
 
M

Maxim726X

Member
Kathian said:
Nate ignored current polling. It didn't agree with him and he ignored it. Own damn fault and he put too big a bet on the Trump polls being soft without giving a scrap of evidence for it.

Not only that. Those saying Trump was like those people who dropped off in a 2012 were idiots. Trump was polling consistently the beat with everyone rising and falling around him. You know - like Romney the 2012 nominee. Worse. He stuck with the line as it became less evidence based to the point he basically declared polls didn't matter.

There's more to polls than top line figures. Nate doesn't seem to understand this which raises big fucking questions about his ability to read public opinion.
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I think this is true, which is why I'll have a hard time taking his predictions seriously in the future... As long as the analytics on 538 remain strong, which to this point they have been, I'll continue to take their predictions seriously.
 
D

dakun

Member
B-Dubs said:
They've always been bad, this cycle has just exposed them for more people.
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yeah but they've never been this bad. There were signs of stupidity when they discussed Sam Harris 1-2 years ago and Cenk's position on the Armenian Genocide has always been alarming. But the last few months just took it to another level.
They are lucky to fall on the left on most social issues so they make good points from time to time just by default. But they really embarrassed themselves now.
 
B

border

Member
dakun said:
yeah but they've never been this bad. There were signs of stupidity when they discussed Sam Harris 1-2 years ago and Cenk's position on the Armenian Genocide has always been alarming.
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Has he commented recently on the Armenian Genocide, in light of the hubub about deniers taking out that ad in the WSJ?
 
N

Neoweee

Member
border said:
Has he commented recently on the Armenian Genocide, in light of the hubub about deniers taking out that ad in the WSJ?
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He does't comment on it at all. He has family back in Turkey. All signs point to him believing it happened and was a genocide, but he isn't rocking the boat out of concern of making things hard for his family.
 
M

Miles X

Member
So, if it is Trump vs Clinton, surely the south will turn a bit more blue? Trump is an out and out racist. But then .. most of those states voted GOP over Obama, just seems a bit crazy.

I wanna see some progress toward turning red states blue in the future. Other than Indiana and North Carolina flipflopping again I don't think that can happen again this election? I keep hearing Arizona and Georgia but they were won by a healthy margin last election.
 
C

Chezzymann

Member
Miles X said:
So, if it is Trump vs Clinton, surely the south will turn a bit more blue? Trump is an out and out racist. But then .. most of those states voted GOP over Obama, just seems a bit crazy.

I wanna see some progress toward turning red states blue in the future. Other than Indiana and North Carolina flipflopping again I don't think that can happen again this election? I keep hearing Arizona and Georgia but they were won by a healthy margin last election.
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I'm not sure about that. Trump is on pace for a possibly all time record in primary votes.

Hes at about 10 million right now, could finish with 12. And he has over 50% support with republican voters. Unless most independents go towards Hillary due to his unfavorable numbers I guess.
 
D

dramatis

Member
Chezzymann said:
I'm not sure about that. Trump is on pace for a possibly all time record in primary votes.

Hes at about 10 million right now, could finish with 12. And he has over 50% support with republican voters. Unless most independents go towards Hillary due to his unfavorable numbers I guess.
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That's a pretty low record on the Republican side. In comparison Hillary's at 13 million right now, and in 2008 both Obama and Hillary snagged 18 million votes each if you count everything. Decline in Republican identification = decline in primary vote?
 
M

Miles X

Member
Chezzymann said:
I'm not sure about that. Trump is on pace for a possibly all time record in primary votes.

Hes at about 10 million right now, could finish with 12. And he has over 50% support with republican voters. Unless most independents go towards Hillary due to his unfavorable numbers I guess.
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Will that translate into 70 million Americans voting for Trump tho?
 
B

Blader

Member
Frozenprince said:
https://twitter.com/newtgingrich/status/725385564913061889

So this is great.
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dat top comment

W4Y3fkM.jpg
 
M

Matt_

World's #1 One Direction Fan: Everyone else in the room can see it, everyone else but you~~~
Popehat ‏@Popehat 40m40 minutes ago
.@newtgingrich Low standards are not the secret to happiness, as at least 2 of your 3 wives would attest.

this is the most savage thing I think ive seen on twitter
 
T

Team Alucard

Banned
So does Trump essentially have things locked up now?

Seems highly unlikely that he doesn't get to 1,237 unless he completely collapses in Claifornia or something.
 
B

border

Member
Team Alucard said:
So does Trump essentially have things locked up now?

Seems highly unlikely that he doesn't get to 1,237 unless he completely collapses in Claifornia or something.
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He definitely does not have it locked up. A lot will hinge on Indiana, and how the uncommitted Pennsylvania delegates choose to vote.
 
M

Miles X

Member
border said:
He definitely does not have it locked up. A lot will hinge on Indiana, and how the uncommitted Pennsylvania delegates choose to vote.
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Actually Indiana doesn't matter so much anymore. As long as Cruz doesn't get 50%'s across the board and Trump gets say half of delegates, he can still get to that number.

34 (I think) of Penn's 57 said (after his win there) they would vote for the winner. So that's a big chunk made up there.

But yeah, definitely not locked up, Trump can't afford to think so either, he has to fight every fight as if it's vital to him making it.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Matt_ said:
Popehat ‏@Popehat 40m40 minutes ago
.@newtgingrich Low standards are not the secret to happiness, as at least 2 of your 3 wives would attest.

this is the most savage thing I think ive seen on twitter
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Holy shit, that is savage as fuck
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Miles X said:
Actually Indiana doesn't matter so much anymore. As long as Cruz doesn't get 50%'s across the board and Trump gets say half of delegates, he can still get to that number.

34 (I think) of Penn's 57 said (after his win there) they would vote for the winner. So that's a big chunk made up there.

But yeah, definitely not locked up, Trump can't afford to think so either, he has to fight every fight as if it's vital to him making it.
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Indiana is still pretty big since it's winner take all by congressional district. Even a small win there can result in a very lopsided delegate margin.
 
J

jack_package_200

Banned
v69Ja5B.jpg
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My facebook feed is filled with so much political "insight"

I honestly want to come out and say that I support Hillary but I also don't want to deal with my friend's GF and other people I am friends with saying that I support selling out democracy and that I support the evils of capitalism.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
jack_package_200 said:
My facebook feed is filled with so much political "insight"

I honestly want to come out and say that I support Hillary but I also don't want to deal with my friend's GF and other people I am friends with saying that I support selling out democracy and that I support the evils of capitalism.
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honestly, at some point in the past couple months i just said "fuck it" with regards to facebook and started getting approximately as obnoxious with facts as they were with memes

the end result: no one posting memes, everyone waiting for my latest posts (except for that one guy who still refuses to believe any argument for sanders losing that isn't "fraud" or "voter suppression")
 
M

Matsukaze

Member
Matt_ said:
Popehat ‏@Popehat 40m40 minutes ago
.@newtgingrich Low standards are not the secret to happiness, as at least 2 of your 3 wives would attest.

this is the most savage thing I think ive seen on twitter
Click to expand...
Newt getting nuked with these comments lol.
 
Rentahamster

Rentahamster

Rodent Whores
I wonder if Trump is going to use his "there's too much money in politics/I'm not getting lobbyist money" attack line on Hillary. That'll be....interesting.
 
A

Aaronrules380

Member
PhoncipleBone said:
I am resisting from pointing out to him how wrong the map is. If Bernie lost that bad in so many states, how would he suddenly win? Oh, wait! Because independents!
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Aside from states where he flat out lost to Hilary, or the fact that in a general election attack ads would easily tank his favorability, aren't a lot of the states they have him winning solid republican states? You can see they're just scrambling for any way to get to 270 without thinking it through at all
 
P

PhoncipleBone

Banned
Aaronrules380 said:
Aside from states where he flat out lost to Hilary, or the fact that in a general election attack ads would easily tank his favorability, aren't a lot of the states they have him winning solid republican states? You can see they're just scrambling for any way to get to 270 without thinking it through at all
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I eagerly anticipate a trouncing in CA. So many people thinking he is going to clean up there because of his win in CO. All he is going to be cleaning up are the scraps left behind by Hilary.
 
Y

You Know Nothing

Member
U

ultratruman

Banned
Kin5290 said:
People dislike Nate Silver now? What is wrong with them.

The 538 Elections podcast is just fantastic, although it being recorded on Mondays remains a problem.
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Nate Silver does seem weirdly emotionally invested this time around. He's relying a lot more on betting site odds than in previous elections.
 
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