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BO 09•16-18•16 - Bomba Witch & latest Bridget Jones abortion can't sink Sully

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L

Lord Frieza

Member
WhiteRabbitEXE said:
I hate Jurassic World with a burning passion (deeply, intensely, and somewhat irrationally), but no, SS is worse. And it sure as fuck isn't better than either Avengers, and honestly not even Phantom Menace. I've only seen Alice in pieces, but it would be hard for me to call it worse either. Haven't seen the other 3.

Suicide Squad is a fundamentally broken movie. It has the worst pacing and plot structure of any movie I've ever seen, period. It sits alongside Grown Ups and Snow White and the Huntsman as one of the worst made movies I've seen in theatres, despite its mostly enjoyable cast.
Click to expand...

Burton's Alice in Wonderland is worse.
 
W

WaffleTaco

Wants to outlaw technological innovation.
Toothless said:
Disappointed Sully dropped so well. Very meh film, but I suppose the older target audience enjoys it thanks to the (admittedly very good) performance by Hanks.

Looking forward to catching Bridget Jones later today!
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It's a great film with a great story, and although I'm sick of Tom Hanks playing Tom Hanks, he always does an exceptional performance.
 
G

guek

Banned
So I plotted the estimated return of income for every movie that has grossed over $300M DOM based on the formula kswiston gave me in another thread. I don't think it's entirely accurate, especially since I didn't take a lower cut from China into consideration. Interesting to look at though. Estimating marketing as equal to the budget is probably what's killing it.

TPG1Vr4.png
 
K

kswiston

Member
I probably would have capped marketing at $150-175M for the super-high budget films.

The estimate we got for BvS from Deadline and other places was $160M for marketing. The reported production budget was $250M. Ditto for the Spider-mans, Avengers, Civil War, etc.
 
G

guek

Banned
kswiston said:
I probably would have capped marketing at $150-175M for the super-high budget films.

The estimate we got for BvS from Deadline and other places was $160M for marketing. The reported production budget was $250M. Ditto for the Spider-mans, Avengers, Civil War, etc.
Click to expand...

So I fixed it assuming marketing is capped at $160M. That means Iron Man 2 is the only one that lost money at the BO :p

If this is at all indicative of the actual ROI, it does show how important revenue outside of the BO really is.

edit: whoops, inside out should be a bit higher on the list. blah, i'll fix it later
edit2: fixed a few things, a few more movies are in the red
 
V

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Viacom is taking a $115 million writedown to earnings for an unidentified Paramount movie, widely believed to be “Monster Trucks.”

Viacom disclosed Wednesday it was lowering its earnings forecast for the current fourth fiscal quarter ending Sept. 30 and cited “a programming impairment charge of $115 million.” It said the charge was “related to the expected performance of an unreleased film.”
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Paramount continuing with that winning streak.

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/monster-trucks-viacom-loss-115-million-1201867055/
 
K

kswiston

Member
boxoffice.com has Magnificent Seven at $51M and Storks at $36M this weekend. If M7 hits those numbers, it will be the first September film to break the $50M opening weekend barrier.

Deadline is going with a much lower low-mid $30M opening for Magnificent Seven and a high 20s/low 30s opening for Storks.
 
P

Penguin

Member
kswiston said:
boxoffice.com has Magnificent Seven at $51M and Storks at $36M this weekend. If M7 hits those numbers, it will be the first September film to break the $50M opening weekend barrier.

Deadline is going with a much lower low-mid $30M opening for Magnificent Seven and a high 20s/low 30s opening for Storks.
Click to expand...

That seems like a huge gap

I hope it does well
 
K

kswiston

Member
Deadline is saying $14M for Magnificent Seven on Friday, leading to a weekend around $40M.

They have Storks at $5M, heading for a $20M weekend.


Storks looked pretty bad from the trailers, and reviews aren't terribly good for an animated film. I suppose that isn't helping in a year where we have already had a ton of big animated films.
 
M

Matt_

World's #1 One Direction Fan: Everyone else in the room can see it, everyone else but you~~~
Saw bridget jones tonight and it was great
I don't think I've ever seen a cinema that packed (UK) and I go to most of the major films on opening weekend

It might not do well in the US but expect a strong hold
 
V

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
kurahador said:
The Equalizer reported budget is $55 million though, while M7's $108 million.
Click to expand...

? Budget doesn't imply the film will perform better domestically. Denzel's films usually land between $80-100M domestically - that's M7's threshold unless wom is better than his usual fare; overseas will be sold on the strength of Lee Byung-hun, Chris Pratt and Denzel Washington's popularity so it should fare better compare to the US where it's mostly been sold as a Denzel film feat. other people.
 
K

kmfdmpig

Member
vinnygambini said:
? Budget doesn't imply the film will perform better domestically. Denzel's films usually land between $80-100M domestically - that's M7's threshold unless wom is better than his usual fare; overseas will be sold on the strength of Lee Byung-hun, Chris Pratt and Denzel Washington's popularity so it should fare better.
Click to expand...

Westerns are typically not a big draw overseas, however.
 
V

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
kmfdmpig said:
Westerns are typically not a big draw overseas, however.
Click to expand...

While true, according to Deadline it's doing solid business in South Korea (Lee Byung-hun's homeland) with $5.1M already - other overseas gross are not available just yet though.
 
womfalcs3

womfalcs3

Banned
Only reason I liked Magnificent 7 was the return of Ethan/Denzel. Movie was okay... No real twists (predictable plot), some funny lines, is too long.

The funniest bit in the movie was Vincent's accent.
 
R

Ross61

Member
kswiston said:
Deadline is saying $14M for Magnificent Seven on Friday, leading to a weekend around $40M.

They have Storks at $5M, heading for a $20M weekend.


Storks looked pretty bad from the trailers, and reviews aren't terribly good for an animated film. I suppose that isn't helping in a year where we have already had a ton of big animated films.
Click to expand...
Reviews aren't bad either, so I think it'll be alright.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Someone over on the box oftice theory forums has been adjusting overseas grosses of recent films to current (shitty) exchange rates. The following films would have been under $1B worldwide if the rates when they were released were as shitty as they are today (or as of a week ago). ER Adjusted worldwide grosses are in brackets:

Skyfall ($969M)
Transformers 3 ($983M)
Transformers 4 ($971M)
Toy Story 3 ($950M)
Pirates 4 ($841M)
The Dark Knight Rises ($978M)
Alice in Wonderland ($879M)
The Hobbit: AUJ ($875M)
The Dark Knight ($916M)

I think we tend not to give exchange rates as much consideration as they deserve. All of this should be kept in mind for upcoming pirates and transformers films

Edit: some superhero related numbers in light of this year's box office

Avengers ($1329M)
Age of Ultron ($1336M
Iron Man 3 ($1061M)
Spider-man 3 ($780M)
Guardians of the Galaxy ($691M)
 
G

Gunslinger

Member
Just saw magnificent seven last night. Wow what a movie. One of the better westerns in years. The character development is not as good as the 1960 one. But the action was amazing. Denzel was great like always and so was Pratt. The other five were great too. Good to see Ethan hawke again. Overall my review 8.5/10. Not as good as original magnificent seven or seven samurai.
 
A

alfredofroylan

Member
Just came from watching Storks and honestly is a fun, good movie. It's a mixture between the slapstick humor of the Looney Tunes, office jokes and Amazon, for me was better than Secret life of Pets.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Weekend Studio Estimates

1) Magnificent Seven - $35.0M
2) Storks - $21.8M
3) Sully - $13.8M (-36%) - $92M total
4) Bridget Jones' Baby - $4.5M (-47%) - $16M total
5) Snowden - $4.1M (-48%) - $15M total
6) Blair Witch - $3.95M (-59%) - $16M total
7) Don't Breathe - $3.8M (-33%) - $81M total
8) Suicide Squad - $3.1M (-34%) - $318M total
9) When the Bough Breaks - $2.5M (-54%) - $27M total
10) Kubo and the Two Strings - $1.1M (-56%) - $46M total
 
B

BumRush

Member
kswiston said:
Weekend Studio Estimates

1) Magnificent Seven - $35.0M
2) Storks - $21.8M
3) Sully - $13.8M (-36%) - $92M total
4) Bridget Jones' Baby - $4.5M (-47%) - $16M total
5) Snowden - $4.1M (-48%) - $15M total
6) Blair Witch - $3.95M (-59%) - $16M total
7) Don't Breathe - $3.8M (-33%) - $81M total
8) Suicide Squad - $3.1M (-34%) - $318M total
9) When the Bough Breaks - $2.5M (-54%) - $27M total
10) Kubo and the Two Strings - $1.1M (-56%) - $46M total
Click to expand...

I really expected a Western with denzel / pratt to do better in this dead box office time
 
3

3N16MA

Banned
kswiston said:
Someone over on the box oftice theory forums has been adjusting overseas grosses of recent films to current (shitty) exchange rates. The following films would have been under $1B worldwide if the rates when they were released were as shitty as they are today (or as of a week ago). ER Adjusted worldwide grosses are in brackets:

Skyfall ($969M)
Transformers 3 ($983M)
Transformers 4 ($971M)
Toy Story 3 ($950M)
Pirates 4 ($841M)
The Dark Knight Rises ($978M)
Alice in Wonderland ($879M)
The Hobbit: AUJ ($875M)
The Dark Knight ($916M)

I think we tend not to give exchange rates as much consideration as they deserve. All of this should be kept in mind for upcoming pirates and transformers films

Edit: some superhero related numbers in light of this year's box office

Avengers ($1329M)
Age of Ultron ($1336M
Iron Man 3 ($1061M)
Spider-man 3 ($780M)
Gua4dians of the Galaxy ($691M)
Click to expand...


SS beats GoTG.

SS tops CW in 4 consecutive weekends.

WB to buy Disney.
 
K

kswiston

Member
If Suicide Squad manages to cling to a top 10 spot next week, it will tie The Jungle Book for the second most consecutive weekends in the top 10 this year, after Zootopia.

Even if it is bumped out (I think there is a decent chance it takes #11 next weekend), Suicide Squad ties deadpool for #3 on that list.
 
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