The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
*Among Republican primary votersThat's not how 'Shit Trump Says' works. Every time he says outrageous things, his numbers rise.
*Among Republican primary votersThat's not how 'Shit Trump Says' works. Every time he says outrageous things, his numbers rise.
She'll get a bump when the primaries are over next week, and then a convention bump and then an Obama bump.
Plus who knows what kind of stupid shit Trump will say between now and November, making the gap even wider.
They'll follow the ratings. Once the general populace starts paying real attention, the Donald will fade out. He's showing that he can't pivot.
Those general debates will be embarrassing.
*Among Republican primary voters
She'll get a bump, her favorability will go up. Everyone loves her. It's fine.
They'll follow the ratings. Once the general populace starts paying real attention, the Donald will fade out. He's showing that he can't pivot.
Those general debates will be embarrassing.
It doesn't help that the Clinton campaign is completely incompetent. What's the first thing you thought of when you saw that "Love Trumps Hate" slogan? To me, it read "Love Trump's Hate" (Love is a verb). Like whaaat? And it's not just because I'm biased, because someone showed this to Bill Maher and it's the first thing he thought of too, and he fucking hates Trump.
Plus, believe it or not, some people actually like Trump. ;-)
...love is also a noun. I can see how grammar flies over some people's heads, though!
I wish to no avail that a moratorium be placed on these polls until after the conventions. That's the earliest anyone will see of an even playing field between Hillary and Trump.
...love is also a noun. I can see how grammar flies over some people's heads, though!
In that case you can see why it's a shitty slogan.
In the same sense that I can see why Trump loves the poorly educated.
And I'm old enough to remember when Dukakis was leading George HW Bush in the polls. By a wide margin, I think, and later in the election than this.
I hope Trump loses, but polls this early don't mean anything.
Polls don't matter unless NeoGAF decides they do.
Can someone explain to me why you put so much stock in the popular vote when you actually win state by state? Say as a single event that Hillary's numbers drop of sharply in states that are already red, that means jack shit for the GE right?
Wonder if Obama is planning on making his second consecutive appearance at the GOP convention
His biggest rally yet.
Its also his most diverse rally yet
Polls don't matter unless NeoGAF decides they do.
Is this like your first election?
If you think ambiguously worded messages only affect the uneducated, you would not do well in the field of marketing.
Polls don't matter unless NeoGAF decides they do.
Fascists are sooooo bad at analyzing marketing slogans nowadays.
What happened to Fascism that its supporters think that "Love Trumps Hate" is confusing.
Love beats Hate would have been better I think.Ask Bill Maher, who is one of the biggest trump haters on the planet, and who agrees it's a mind boggingly stupid slogan.
She'll get a bump when the primaries are over next week, and then a convention bump and then an Obama bump.
Plus who knows what kind of stupid shit Trump will say between now and November, making the gap even wider.
Fascists are sooooo bad at analyzing marketing slogans nowadays.
What happened to Fascism that its supporters think that "Love Trumps Hate" is confusing.
Love beats Hate would have been better I think.
I do see that. We'll see how it works out. I do think it can succeed, maybe I'm just a bit cynical at the same time.The point is to link to Trump by name. I don't think it works as well if you're not specifically calling out Trump.
The 8-9 points doesn't match up woth agregates because it's a hypothetical, not an actual poll of any kind.Thanks, I'll bookmark this one. In any case, my point was twofold: 1) Individual polls are useless as tits on a boar. People should only be posting aggregates. 2) 8-9 points is definitely not matching up with aggregates, it's still not an easy win for Clinton at this stage.
but guys bernie showed up at a basketball game last night that means hes one of us!!!!!
#feelthebern #gowarriors
Don't fret, the super delegates will decide Clinton is toxic and nominate Bernie at the convention
That can work in a primary race, not the general. Trump is going to drive his numbers down with women and every minority group for months. Yes I'm sure he'll successfully rile up many white male voters to come out but simple math dictates he cannot win with them alone.Stupid is in the eye of the beholder, the crazier and stupider shit Trump says, the more publicity he gets, and the more his cult of personality grows, earning him votes. At this point he's less of a presidential candidate and more of a sports team.
It is stemming from some stupid thing dumbass Scott Adams wrote or said on Bill Maher's show, so it is now being parroted as a bad slogan.
With the brownest of liquors
too bad people dont hate racist billionaires yet
It doesn't help that the Clinton campaign is completely incompetent. What's the first thing you thought of when you saw that "Love Trumps Hate" slogan? To me, it read "Love Trump's Hate" (Love is a verb). Like whaaat? And it's not just because I'm biased, because someone showed this to Bill Maher and it's the first thing he thought of too, and he fucking hates Trump.
Plus, believe it or not, some people actually like Trump. ;-)
Here is Sam Wang from Princeton Election Consortium's prediction for November.
He also predicts if the election was held today, Clinton would win 336-202.
Sam is one of the best political writers in the business. Back in January when even (usually good) sites like 538 were writing about a contested convention, and Trump loosing, Sam plainly stated that Clinton and Trump had more or less secured the nomination. He predicted the last two elections very well, perfectly in '08 and only missing Florida (which was more or less tied) in '12.
It's easy to look at bad poll numbers, or good poll numbers, and freak out over them. But that gets people nowhere. It's nearly useless to talk about individual polls, or "momentum", or anything else pundits like to bring up. What matters is the statistics based off of the polls, and right now they give a resounding Clinton victory.
Soon as Sanders drops out, that number will rise, or I hope. Hopefully he is smart enough to endorse her and rally for her to make it an easier win.
Does Trump even have surrogates outside of his family?His caimpaign is amatuer hour amd no amount of misdirection is going to change that.
Does Trump even have surrogates outside of his family?
Here is Sam Wang from Princeton Election Consortium's prediction for November.
He also predicts if the election was held today, Clinton would win 336-202.
Sam is one of the best political writers in the business. Back in January when even (usually good) sites like 538 were writing about a contested convention, and Trump loosing, Sam plainly stated that Clinton and Trump had more or less secured the nomination. He predicted the last two elections very well, perfectly in '08 and only missing Florida (which was more or less tied) in '12.
It's easy to look at bad poll numbers, or good poll numbers, and freak out over them. But that gets people nowhere. It's nearly useless to talk about individual polls, or "momentum", or anything else pundits like to bring up. What matters is the statistics based off of the polls, and right now they give a resounding Clinton victory.
This is his post in January, if you don't believe me. (He didn't actually stop posting). http://election.princeton.edu/2016/01/27/hey-may-i-just-sign-off-until-summer/
This is a valid point. And nothing could change about public perception of Sanders. It's not like he's gonna go around insulting AIDS advocacy groups and encouraging violence.But Bernie said he polls better therefore we should overrule the will of the voters and make him the nominee.
Does Trump even have surrogates outside of his family?
Here is Sam Wang from Princeton Election Consortium's prediction for November.
He also predicts if the election was held today, Clinton would win 336-202.
Sam is one of the best political writers in the business. Back in January when even (usually good) sites like 538 were writing about a contested convention, and Trump loosing, Sam plainly stated that Clinton and Trump had more or less secured the nomination. He predicted the last two elections very well, perfectly in '08 and only missing Florida (which was more or less tied) in '12.
It's easy to look at bad poll numbers, or good poll numbers, and freak out over them. But that gets people nowhere. It's nearly useless to talk about individual polls, or "momentum", or anything else pundits like to bring up. What matters is the statistics based off of the polls, and right now they give a resounding Clinton victory.
This is his post in January, if you don't believe me. (He didn't actually stop posting). http://election.princeton.edu/2016/01/27/hey-may-i-just-sign-off-until-summer/
He pegs her at a 70% chance to win currently, and as you said, he's done very well in all Presidential races since 2004. Only time he screwed up, if I remember correctly, was one of the midterms where he was off by a bit.
Don't actually inform people how to follow elections intelligently! They have to come around the hard way like most political observers, doggedly believing in the power of ones own intuition (GUT FEELING), proclaiming that this time will be different than all historical precedent for reasons, and not comprehending the importance of the time a poll is taken, who it is taken by, and how it is taken.
Trump can still win, because of one very serious factor... if something serious happens on Obama's watch before election day, Democrats and therefore Hillary will take the blame and lose. That's still too precipitous for me to smile about this election.
But considering the electoral votes Democrats start with from the jump, how positive the shifting demographics are for Dems, how well Hillary is polling already versus Trump, the difference in status in their primaries and the fact that Republican party is infinitely more fractured and unprepared than the Democrats... this is not a difficult race to call at this juncture. One simply needs to understand how politics actually works, and not how we wish it would work.
Seriously, we'll have Barack Obama and Bill Clinton combo, and may be Elizabeth Warren and Jerry Brown to top it off.