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December 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 10th

Switch launch will likely be a success and people will be optimistic, but will drop fast with this price and games.

Unless of course there's a Wii effect in the casual market that no one is anticipating.

Letting grandma bowl at thanksgiving on the Wii just isn't something that will be repeated with a cow milking game on the Switch I fear.

Nintendo had the opportunity to take advantage of a wide open release window for new hardware and just whiffed.

I'm still buying one day one, but I just can't see mass market traction. Better than the Wii U though I think.
 

Vena

Member
Yeah, now that you mention it, it makes things far more difficult to compare. It's just that I wanted to get a clearer picture, a more unbiased look at how Switch games are doing on Amazon.com right now, and the benchmark would've helped.

Queso's got our best normalization factor at 2mil (and that comes from Kimishima from a while back) but even then its not exactly easy to tell how that number is split worldwide or if that's the entirety of the pre-launch shipment or pre-launch + new shipments into the month.

At current, some % of 2mil baseline is sold out in the US online and in some part at retail (with the latter harder to gauge without someone in retail looking at distribution numbers). That's all we've got to work with.

Of course, it not a bad thing to be sold out online and for software of all sorts to be topping the charts pre-launch, but its also just not some grandiose prognosticator. Its meeting their expectations (which in and of themselves are probably grounded due to the failures of the WiiU).

The rest is going to depend heavily on Zelda from the looks of it, and that may be intentional. Skyrim, for instance, I am almost certain is not near launch to avoid Zelda but, in general, it seems like the entire line-up was built around the idea that Zelda alone will define the system's launch. This move was no doubt informed by the response to Zelda but whether or not it is going to work out for them, we'll have to see.

(Of course, I am dubious on the veracity of their currently claimed line-up or, better stated, the entirety of it. That FE Direct makes me all the more suspicious that they are planning a trickle of info for at and near launch. Timing is peculiar, I'd expect focus on the mobile game and FEW... but it feels premature for Warriors unless that launches fairly soon. That and/or we may see a new FE for 3DS and/or Switch show up out of nowhere in that Direct.)

Letting grandma bowl at thanksgiving on the Wii just isn't something that will be repeated with a cow milking game on the Switch I fear.

Nintendo had the opportunity to take advantage of a wide open release window for new hardware and just whiffed.

I don't think anything can really repeat that.

Admittedly, I don't really think they whiffed it. I think they hit some notes well, some not and GAF in general got bubble-burst by the rumor mill vs. reality crash.
 

Vena

Member
Look beyond GAF. Reactions have been consistent in launch lineup and price tag being questionable.

Oh I am, and I know. I am of the opinion that this will be a slowburn, there are issues with the price and launch software but the year looks solid and the hardware has very strongly been spoken of positively. That "HD Rumble" has been a thing of wide discussion though I know not if it will matter, it just makes the nerd in me curious for the haptics tech, haha.

Comparing Nintendo's own estimates vs. the 3DS estimates at its time, I'd say they expected a similar response. The 2mil is considerably under previous initial shipments and even the 3DS with its similar launch timing, iirc.
 
One nice thing is that switch lauches in spring. It's a console that can and should be played outside (for 3 hours max.). So early customers can nicely multiply the message. Far better than in autumn.
 

donny2112

Member
I'm hopeful that Wii Sports Club (and other digital Wii U games) will be BC with Switch, but that's not the same as a pack-in. 1,2,Switch needed to be a pack-in to have any chance. Now, it has no chance, even if it is fun. I'm sure Wii Party U was fun, too.
 
Switch will launch big. Zelda up front is enough to guarantee the hardcore latch on quickly.

Everything after that though who knows
 

Abdiel

Member
Switch will launch big. Zelda up front is enough to guarantee the hardcore latch on quickly.

Everything after that though who knows

This - I have no doubt of this much. All of our initial inventory is definitely already spoken for. But I have no idea how much that even is. It didn't last especially long, and I don't have much detail on how much inventory to expect for launch of the system.

But the Nintendo faithful (And mind, this is not a pejorative, I totally understand why their fans love their games, even if I don't play most of them myself) are largely the ones who will acquire the initial shipment(s?).

Beyond that point, I have no idea. The gaps between games - and games to the general audience, not the ones who are already sold on Zelda, is what I'm talking about, is what will determine a lot of this. I'm sure there's going to be more indie titles announced as on their way. I wonder what else is on its way for games this year, and of those games, how will they do in catching the general audience. That's what I'm looking for.
 
Comparing Nintendo's own estimates vs. the 3DS estimates at its time, I'd say they expected a similar response. The 2mil is considerably under previous initial shipments and even the 3DS with its similar launch timing, iirc.

3DS only pushed around 400k sell thru in month 1. Then the price drop and ambassador program went down. Didn't really rebound until after that, and not in force until December.

If they have the same issue with Switch at launch that the 3DS had, it could be real rough.

I expect more games to be announced, including some big 3rd party titles, to be released this year. But they do have a lot of work to do to convince people that they need this box, and they can't have happen to Switch what happened at the launch of 3DS.
 

Humdinger

Member
.... The messaging of this thing is atrocious.

I await with mild dread to see what sort of setup we'll see in store to try and let customers figure this out. ...

... holy shit I'm already staving off a headache from the questions this thing is going to bring my way at work.

... even just the thread about those Joy-con grips and the charging aspect was wearying.

... this isn't the PS4 launch, with a 6+ month window of time. They've built a very narrow window of time to build any awareness of this product before it starts hitting shelves and people can start actually getting their hands on it.

Interesting perspective, and kind of funny. Funny for me, anyhow, because I'm not in the position of having to explain all this to customers. A headache for you.

You're right, this device is much more complicated than your typical console, and there are a lot of questions people may have about it.

Good point about the short window of time to prepare. Only two months. I foresee a lot of confused customers.
 
The next big game after Zelda is Splatoon 2 in summer. I wonder how they will handle the space between that. Just continue using Zelda?

Mario Kart in April is a big title. I know it's a WiiU remake, but hey, many people didn't buy a WiiU, so it's technically a new game.
There will be enough AA stuff to waste your money on if you want to buy games for the switch, but you are right, there is no 1, 2 punch after zelda.
 

Abdiel

Member
Interesting perspective, and kind of funny. Funny for me, anyhow, because I'm not in the position of having to explain all this to customers. A headache for you.

You're right, this device is much more complicated than your typical console, and there are a lot of questions people may have about it.

Good point about the short window of time to prepare. Only two months. I foresee a lot of confused customers.

(sigh)

I don't want to come across as down on the system itself. I'm reading the impressions, and DF has said that the hardware is really solid, it feels really good to use and play, and that's all really positive stuff, and I think they've created a physically attractive product.

But I'm just looking at the realities of what it is to field these sort of questions in store, with customers who are not pre-educated about the nature of this system and what it has available. It has a narrow window to build awareness, but maybe they're not really worried about that because they assume the initial shipments will be sold out to those who are already sold on it, and then they can worry about establishing clearer messaging for the broader audience over time?

The Wii era commercials were brilliantly simple and elegant. The whole "Wii would like to play" was able to communicate the core premise and ideas of the system in a way that people understood easily. And it also was a product that was very easy to do almost anything with, by nature.

How they communicate those same ideas and messaging to an audience they're trying to recapture is going to be much more difficult with a system like this. It has a lot more going on with it. This isn't inherently bad, at all, if they're going to have effective marketing and communication, and most importantly, accessible software that is compelling.

At this point, that's why I might have come across as a bit harsh at first. I just am waiting for us to see how Nintendo intends to use the resources available to them, including us. As I said in another post, I make sure my team and the rest of the district is kept informed of details across the board, because I hate the stereotype of retail threads where retail reps have no clue about games or hardware coming out, or give horribly biased misinformation.
 
(sigh)

I don't want to come across as down on the system itself. I'm reading the impressions, and DF has said that the hardware is really solid, it feels really good to use and play, and that's all really positive stuff, and I think they've created a physically attractive product.

But I'm just looking at the realities of what it is to field these sort of questions in store, with customers who are not pre-educated about the nature of this system and what it has available. It has a narrow window to build awareness, but maybe they're not really worried about that because they assume the initial shipments will be sold out to those who are already sold on it, and then they can worry about establishing clearer messaging for the broader audience over time?

The Wii era commercials were brilliantly simple and elegant. The whole "Wii would like to play" was able to communicate the core premise and ideas of the system in a way that people understood easily. And it also was a product that was very easy to do almost anything with, by nature.

How they communicate those same ideas and messaging to an audience they're trying to recapture is going to be much more difficult with a system like this. It has a lot more going on with it. This isn't inherently bad, at all, if they're going to have effective marketing and communication, and most importantly, accessible software that is compelling.

At this point, that's why I might have come across as a bit harsh at first. I just am waiting for us to see how Nintendo intends to use the resources available to them, including us. As I said in another post, I make sure my team and the rest of the district is kept informed of details across the board, because I hate the stereotype of retail threads where retail reps have no clue about games or hardware coming out, or give horribly biased misinformation.

Hm, thanks for your insights. It's hard to understand from a sheer consumer perspective what part of Switch's proposition is hard to sell. It's a home console which you can also use as a mobile device, to play your games not only on your TV, but almost everywhere else. I guess that's the easy part. The harder part is to explain its gimmicks (milk a cow...), and why one would pay 80 bucks for an additional set of those tiny J-cons. But if you put that aside for a moment, it's quite easy to explain what the Switch is.

Now, while explaining seems to be simple, I still don't know if this message is actually hard to sell to the non-enthusiast crowd which possible isn't even that much interested in the Zelda series.
 

Humdinger

Member
(sigh)

I don't want to come across as down on the system itself. I'm reading the impressions, and DF has said that the hardware is really solid, it feels really good to use and play, and that's all really positive stuff, and I think they've created a physically attractive product.

But I'm just looking at the realities of what it is to field these sort of questions in store, with customers who are not pre-educated about the nature of this system and what it has available. It has a narrow window to build awareness, but maybe they're not really worried about that because they assume the initial shipments will be sold out to those who are already sold on it, and then they can worry about establishing clearer messaging for the broader audience over time?

The Wii era commercials were brilliantly simple and elegant. The whole "Wii would like to play" was able to communicate the core premise and ideas of the system in a way that people understood easily. And it also was a product that was very easy to do almost anything with, by nature.

How they communicate those same ideas and messaging to an audience they're trying to recapture is going to be much more difficult with a system like this. It has a lot more going on with it. This isn't inherently bad, at all, if they're going to have effective marketing and communication, and most importantly, accessible software that is compelling.

At this point, that's why I might have come across as a bit harsh at first. I just am waiting for us to see how Nintendo intends to use the resources available to them, including us. As I said in another post, I make sure my team and the rest of the district is kept informed of details across the board, because I hate the stereotype of retail threads where retail reps have no clue about games or hardware coming out, or give horribly biased misinformation.

That's good that you are trying to get your team up to speed. And with a short window of time to do it, I'm sure it's going to be a push.

At the core, the Switch concept seems fairly simple -- it's a combination of a handheld and a home console. You can plug and play on your TV, or you can take it on the go. That's a fairly simple message, I think.

Beyond that, it gets a little complicated... But I wonder how many customers will have super-detailed questions about the Switch. I'm guessing (I don't know; I don't work in retail) that most of the questions will be fairly simple and straightforward. GAF digs into all the minutae of everything, but most people don't care about things at that level of detail.
 

Abdiel

Member
Hm, thanks for your insights. It's hard to understand from a sheer consumer perspective what part of Switch's proposition is hard to sell. It's a home console which you can also use as a mobile device, to play your games not only on your TV, but almost everywhere else. I guess that's the easy part. The harder part is to explain its gimmicks (milk a cow...), and why one would pay 80 bucks for an additional set of those tiny J-cons. But if you put that aside for a moment, it's quite easy to explain what the Switch is.

Now, while explaining seems to be simple, I still don't know if this message is actually hard to sell to the non-enthusiast crowd which possible isn't even that much interested in the Zelda series.

Of course, the core idea might seem simple enough in overall premise, but what that means for actual buyers who aren't already planning their active usage and expectations, that creates a very different layout. We're supposed to ask customers questions about intended use, and users, to make sure to make recommendations, and with this device moving even closer to a tablet than the Wii U was, you know it's going to face direct comparisons.

We sell a lot of Amazon Fire type tablets, or the Galaxy Tabs, and other inexpensive tablets, as devices to be given expressly to kids, because they offer so much content readily available, and often so much for free in their marketplaces. They also don't usually require much else beyond the initial device.

As a gaming system, with detachable controllers, that means that any parent considering this for their children would mean that if they're allowing them to transport it, they have to now regulate that it has these controllers attached. If they get lost or left behind, many games are now unusable without owning a Pro controller, and the handheld mode is certainly going to face difficulties. The accessories aren't cheap, either, as mentioned, and those costs are certainly going to raise eyebrows (Already have, in discussions with a few customers).

That's good that you are trying to get your team up to speed. And with a short window of time to do it, I'm sure it's going to be a push.

At the core, the Switch concept seems fairly simple -- it's a combination of a handheld and a home console. You can plug and play on your TV, or you can take it on the go. That's a fairly simple message, I think.

Beyond that, it gets a little complicated... But I wonder how many customers will have super-detailed questions about the Switch. I'm guessing (I don't know; I don't work in retail) that most of the questions will be fairly simple and straightforward. GAF digs into all the minutae of everything, but most people don't care about things at that level of detail.

You would probably be surprised by the array of questions we do field. But usually they aren't the same kind as what GAF asks. GAF gets answers to its own questions, uses all the resources of various articles and such to collaborate and build better awareness. Our customers ask questions specific to their situations, their lifestyles, and to make products personally relevant. For general consumers, who aren't the enthusiast Nintendo audience or even the hardcore gaming crowd, that means that a lot of smaller subtext of the system's details might be obtuse at times. So we try to make sure we can be prepared for interacting with customers on those more practical matters.

And with a product that is trying to step into both worlds as a hand held and a home console, that means that it will then acquire the new difficulties shackled to each type, and that means accounting for new circumstances most other products haven't had to. It certainly faces qualms a PS4 or XB1 never will, because they don't usually move from one spot.

But we can only do so much if Nintendo isn't on point with how they display the product, and give people compelling reasons to look into it. That's a matter beyond those who are already sold on it.
 

Humdinger

Member
You would probably be surprised by the array of questions we do field. But usually they aren't the same kind as what GAF asks. ... Our customers ask questions specific to their situations, their lifestyles, and to make products personally relevant. ... So we try to make sure we can be prepared for interacting with customers on those more practical matters.

Gotcha. Not so much about the technical minutae; more about practical considerations, like what are the good games for it, do I need to buy other accessories, can I take it on long trips, what if Johnny loses his controller, can it train my son to milk a cow, etc.
 

Welfare

Member
Superdata estimates 55m and 26m for PS4 and XB1 respectively.

https://www.superdataresearch.com/nintendo-switch-the-superdata-take/

Well, we already know PS4 is closer to 53M so that is weird to estimate 55M. Seems more like SuperData estimates ~80M current gen consoles. If that were the case then it would 53.4M PS4 and ~26.6M XB1. So yeah, checks out with them saying 26M XB1. I personally estimated ~27M XB1 at the end of 2016.

But this is SuperData, so I can wait for someone like EA or Ubisoft to comment on the install base before being 100% sure.
 
The overlap between Switch early adopters and previous WiiU owners will probably be pretty close to 100%.
Poor Nintendo cannot convince new target groups with a new and fresh concept. The hipster ads go down the drain. Not even Zelda can bring back old Nintendo fans that just skipped the WiiU just because it was an unappealing ugly piece of overpriced freaktech.
 

bryanee

Member
Superdata don't track hardware sales at all. They specialise in digital spend.

The 55m doesn't fit with Sony's 53.4 million total. Who's to say they overestimated/underestimated Xbox One too.

I'd take these as a ballpark figure and not actual tracked sales.

Was the 53.4 million at the start of December? I cant remember.
 
Whilst the numbers aren't exact it doesn't paint a great picture for MS. They're struggling to sell even half as much as the PS4 and long term the xbone won't even come close to the 360. The PS4 may have already sold more than the xbone will sell at the end of its life. I really wonder how MS plans to turn around their fortunes next gen, I don't envy that job.

Was the 53.4 million at the start of December? I cant remember.

No it was the end. If it was the start that would mean the PS4 only sold 1.6 million pieces of HW WW in December which we know isn't close to the truth.
 

RexNovis

Banned
With Halo and Gears on the decline Im wondering what sort of strategy MS is going to go with to build up some brand identity again. It seems incredibly unlikely that they'll risk investing into new IPs to carry the brand. Especially in light of recent events.

Personally, I'd love to see them capitalize on older PC ips like Mechwarrior, Rise of Nations, Shadowrun, Flight Simulator or Age of Empires and try to ride some nostalgia waves to the bank but that seems unlikely unless they can retrofit both to work with non Mouse/Keyboard control methods.

There's also the matter of finding studios that are competent enough to work on such valuable IPs w/o damaging them. They ahve a studio creating free add on content for AOE2 currently so provided that content goes over well I could see them turning to that studio to make a new entry. No idea who they could look to for something like Mechwarrior though.

Of course there's also the matter of all of the console IPs they own as well. The majority being Rare's catalog. It really is baffling just how many IPs MS owns and refuses to capitalize on in any way.
 
Poor Nintendo cannot convince new target groups with a new and fresh concept.
There's nothing new and fresh about the Switch - as they themselves showed it, it's just a bunch of their previous ideas mashed together.

Not even Zelda can bring back old Nintendo fans that just skipped the WiiU just because it was an unappealing ugly piece of overpriced freaktech.
Not with another unappealing piece of overpriced freaktech, no.
 

Tratorn

Member
...informative post...

Thanks for your posts as always. Could you give maybe a hint how "1,2,Switch" is doing? It it failing completely or are there at least some questions/preorders for it? This could be a first hint if it is attracting the "Wii"-crowd at all, since it is practically the only game known that is going fully in this direction.

Though this will probably be more interesting at or only some days before launch, since this typically isn't the audience that preorders products already a few days after the reveal.
 
With Halo and Gears on the decline Im wondering what sort of strategy MS is going to go with to build up some brand identity again. It seems incredibly unlikely that they'll risk investing into new IPs to carry the brand. Especially in light of recent events.

Personally, I'd love to see them capitalize on older PC ips like Mechwarrior, Rise of Nations, Shadowrun, Flight Simulator or Age of Empires and try to ride some nostalgia waves to the bank but that seems unlikely unless they can retrofit both to work with non Mouse/Keyboard control methods.

There's also the matter of finding studios that are competent enough to work on such valuable IPs w/o damaging them. They ahve a studio creating free add on content for AOE2 currently so provided that content goes over well I could see them turning to that studio to make a new entry. No idea who they could look to for something like Mechwarrior though.

Of course there's also the matter of all of the console IPs they own as well. The majority being Rare's catalog. It really is baffling just how many IPs MS owns and refuses to capitalize on in any way.

I just find it interesting that they see software development as so risky but there willing to invest billions in the console itself. That seems like the much bigger risk to me and doing so and not following it up with their own software puts them at the whim of the market. I feel like if MS are serious and want a place in this market then they should really go all in.
 

Rymuth

Member
Of course there's also the matter of all of the console IPs they own as well. The majority being Rare's catalog. It really is baffling just how many IPs MS owns and refuses to capitalize on in any way.
I don't think it's a matter of refusal but it's that they can't. Everything we've heard (and seen) hints that the belts are being tightened.

First party are all chained to their respective IPs, so that's out, which leaves you with the option of hiring freelancers to do the work for you. Problem is, as we've previously established, a tighter budget severely limits your options. Couple that with how they've been burning bridges and who's left?

No, seriously, who's left? Last gen culled a lot of A-AA studios. Who's left around Platinum/Armature's price range that can develop Conker, Banjo etc?
 

RexNovis

Banned
I just find it interesting that they see software development as so risky but there willing to invest billions in the console itself. That seems like the much bigger risk to me and doing so and not following it up with their own software puts them at the whim of the market. I feel like if MS are serious and want a place in this market then they should really go all in.

Well yea I agree. Much of their issues in the video game market stem from them constantly hedging their bets by refusing to build up their own stable of development studios. I'm just trying to think about what cards they could possibly play at this point to try and redefine/reinvigorate the brand.

I don't think it's a matter of refusal but it's that they can't. Everything we've heard (and seen) hints that the belts are being tightened.

First party are all chained to their respective IPs, so that's out, which leaves you with the option of hiring freelancers to do the work for you. Problem is, as we've previously established, a tighter budget severely limits your options. Couple that with how they've been burning bridges and who's left?

No, seriously, who's left? Last gen culled a lot of A-AA studios. Who's left around Platinum/Armature's price range that can develop Conker, Banjo etc?

That's why I mentioned that they had already contracted a developer to release the free DLC for AOE2. Maybe that's their way of testing possible new third party partners by having them release content for older games and gauging the reaction it receives before allowing them develop a new entry in that franchise? But you're right guy they don't have a lot of partners to pull from or work with at this point and they've certainly seem to have burned a out of bridges thus gen specifically. Even still, it seems like the most likely option for them to take in an effort to redefine their image and reinvigorate their brand as it's the least risky option I can think of.
 
Poor Nintendo cannot convince new target groups with a new and fresh concept. The hipster ads go down the drain. Not even Zelda can bring back old Nintendo fans that just skipped the WiiU just because it was an unappealing ugly piece of overpriced freaktech.

New and fresh? How?
 

RexNovis

Banned
Abdiel, you're the best.

Skimming the thread I don't see any big questions out there, but let me know if there are any as we wind down toward's this weeks' release.

Also, I wrote a thing with my 2017 Video Game Industry Predictions on the The NPD Group blog if you're interested.

It looks like both XB1 and PS4 sold substantially more than expected if the released PR statement is accurate. It's odd that November was such a stark decline and yet December was not. What do you think is responsible for the variance between the 2 months in comparison YoY? AFAIK neither had especially good new deals, new bundles or games available in December that might explain the sales differential.

Also I agree with your statements re:User retention and virtual currencies in 2017 especially since first party titles seem to be adopting virtual currencies more and more these days and GAaS becoming the proverbial golden goose for publishers. I do think GAaS while potentially more profitable is a big risk as longer gaming experiences with consistent updates and high user retention means users have less time and money to invest in other games. This is only going to exacerbate the already rapid consolidation of gaming revenue around a handful of massive releases. Thus, as appealing as it may be to publishers currently I think it stands to backfire on them (well some of them anyway) big time in due time.
 

Vena

Member
It looks like both XB1 and PS4 sold substantially more than expected if the released PR statement is accurate. It's odd that November was such a stark decline and yet December was not. What do you think is responsible for the variance between the 2 months in comparison YoY? AFAIK neither had especially good new deals, new bundles or games available in December that might explain the sales differential.

Seems straightforward to me.

With no major/great deals in November, sales slumped as that is the major driving factor for sales consolidation in that month and around BF. We still saw major sales concentration around BF as we still had expected deals.

Meanwhile, December remains good holiday shopping season and, with fewer deals in November, many sales defer to holiday deals or general holiday shopping. This leads to a healthier December in light of a weaker November.
 
It looks like both XB1 and PS4 sold substantially more than expected if the released PR statement is accurate. It's odd that November was such a stark decline and yet December was not. What do you think is responsible for the variance between the 2 months in comparison YoY? AFAIK neither had especially good new deals, new bundles or games available in December that might explain the sales differential.

The XB1 had a few good deals. The Minecraft bundle was sold at $225, making it the cheapest bundle for December. There was also that blue XB1S Gears 4 bundle that was sold for $249 with a free controller and $30 Gamestop gift card for a few days.
 

Kill3r7

Member
The next big game after Zelda is Splatoon 2 in summer. I wonder how they will handle the space between that. Just continue using Zelda?

Well technically MK8 is the next big game. It very well might end up with the highest attach rate of any early titles by end of the year.

Abdiel, you're the best.

Skimming the thread I don't see any big questions out there, but let me know if there are any as we wind down toward's this weeks' release.

Also, I wrote a thing with my 2017 Video Game Industry Predictions on the The NPD Group blog if you're interested.

Nice write up. It is staggering how many new releases there are on Steam. I wonder if this will push indie developers to sign more marketing deals with the big 3 in hopes of getting more notoriety.
 
Well technically MK8 is the next big game. It very well might end up with the highest attach rate of any early titles by end of the year.
On one hand, yeah, it is Mario Kart. On the other, it is a port of a game that already released on another console. It'll sell well but will it help to push units in the way that a new Zelda or Splatoon 2 will?
 
What do you think is responsible for the variance between the 2 months in comparison YoY?

I don't have a good answer to this yet. I don't see so much Dec exceeding expectations as much as I see Nov under performing. Why precisely that is isn't very clear to me yet. I'm getting more into it now that the Dec data is about done to look for those drivers. I have a feeling there are factors at play that aren't quantifiable as much as I'd like. Too early to call though.

I do think GAaS whole potentially more profitable is a big risk as longer gaming experiences with consistent updates and high user retention means users have less time and money to invest in other games. This is only going to exacerbate the already rapid consolidation of gaming revenue around a handful of massive releases. Thus, as appealing as it may be to publishers currently I think it stands to backfire on them (well done of them anyway) big time in due time.

I agree completely, and think it's already happening. Bit of a chicken:egg scenario though. The titles selling well are those that feature these kinds of models. But, the risk is getting painted into a corner with this stuff with the result of an even more homogenized set of AAA offerings. Which would be bad for adoption and growth imo.

Nice write up. It is staggering how many new releases there are on Steam. I wonder if this will push indie developers to sign more marketing deals with the big 3 in hopes of getting more notoriety.

Thanks much! It's beyond a flood on STEAM now. I don't know what one could call it. This kind of behavior certainly isn't sustainable, unless STEAM just becomes the iOS app store of PC. Which, maybe it already is? I can't imagine the feeling in the pit of the stomach an indie PC developer must have if they've maxed out their credit cards to fund a game right now.
 

donny2112

Member
This leads to a healthier December in light of a weaker November.

You're using hindsight. Not valid. We spent pages and pages talking about how November was inline, not a bad sign, nothing to be worried about. If November was fine, than the pattern of Dec ~= Nov would've meant much less robust December sales. They weren't. December broke the mold set the past several years now of ~ equaling November. There's a reason. Sales isn't it, as there weren't any particularly special sales in December with most typically just coming close to BF sales. Why the increase in December, then? Usually when a console sees a robust increase in December, it's due to reaching families/mainstream and going outside of the core crowd. (Which is why Nintendo usually doesn't follow the Nov ~= Dec even in the last several years.) Is that what's happening in Sony/Microsoft's landscape now? Are they reaching beyond core to families? With CoD 8 billion and Battlefield WW1? And if families/mainstream isn't the reason for December's growth, what is?

I don't see so much Dec exceeding expectations as much as I see Nov under performing.

Which we spent pages and pages going over in the last thread saying wasn't the case. Either our analysis then was wrong (in which case we need to figure out why the Nov. analysis was wrong) or the assumption that December is normal now is.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Well, I suppose you could be interested in this, so...

Amazon.com Switch games pre-order state, as of 21:47 BST, January 14th, 2017

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 2nd
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 5th
Super Mario Odyssey - 6th
Splatoon 2 - 12th
1-2 Switch - 15th
Xenoblade 2 - 32nd
Arms - 33rd
Sonic Mania Collector's Edition - 45th (unavailable)
Fire Emblem Warriors - 52nd
Puyo Puyo Tetris - 57th (171th on PS4)
The Elder Scrolls 5: Skyrim - 77th
Dragon Quest Heroes 1 & 2 - 92nd

Amazon.com Switch games pre-order state, as of 18:16 BST, January 17th, 2017

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 1st
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 7th
Super Mario Odyssey - 9th
Super Bomberman R - 12th (pre-orders started several hours ago)
1-2 Switch - 16th
Splatoon 2 - 19th
Arms - 47th
Xenoblade 2 - 68th
Puyo Puyo Tetris - 90th (413th on PS4)
Fire Emblem Warriors - 91st
 
Which we spent pages and pages going over in the last thread saying wasn't the case. Either our analysis then was wrong or the assumption that December is normal now is.

Mine's more a hypothesis at the moment, which I'm certainly not confident in, which is why I said I don't have any good answers yet. I'll go back and read through the analysis in the thread, see if my numbers agree.
 
Mine's more a hypothesis at the moment, which I'm certainly not confident in, which is why I said I don't have any good answers yet. I'll go back and read through the analysis in the thread, see if my numbers agree.

Read your blog, agree with a lot of it, but switch poised to be the market leader? I just can't see that at all.
 

Vena

Member
I'll throw this over hear from the MC thread (some musings) as they relate to my belief that the Switch, at current, is going to be lagging on supply for a few months at least. I think the timing of Mario Kart 8 may actually be about where they think they will be able to start catching up, since I can't really figure why its so far from launch otherwise. Even on "spacing the releases" that seems like too wide a breadth for the game.

Also, if we take that Foxconn leak at face-value for things that a Foxconn worker would actually be aware of (and not dive into fanfiction), the first few months of the Switch are likely going to be supply constrained. They don't seem to be able to produce very many of these at a given time. 20k/day or 600k/month seems low to me for a near launch production line, and the 2mil shipment (the non-Japan allocation of which seems to be exhausted) doesn't seem to be growing yet though GameStop (Western) has noted trying to get a second allotment.

I have no idea what the production lines are on this thing but they are either limited on whole-system production (parts, plastics, etc) or the system's chip is on a low yield at current. They may not even ramp up production for some time either because they are being conservative or because they simply cannot if the reason is due to yields.

This may explain the launch vs. spread out year releases.

Just some musings.
 
Read your blog, agree with a lot of it, but switch poised to be the market leader? I just can't see that at all.

Thanks for checking it out. And I agree with your point. That's why I wrote that "Nintendo is poised to re-establish itself as *a* market leader" not that the Switch would be the best-selling console.
 
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