You are overestimating the straight white male racist vote.
Not saying people should be passive, just reasonable
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Democratic Senators feeling trepidation towards HRC's declining poll numbers.
- Thread starter Team Alucard
- Start date
- Status
You are overestimating the straight white male racist vote.
Not saying people should be passive, just reasonable
metalslimer
Member
People firmly behind trump at this point aren't going tobchanhe their minds. There are a number of people that don't want to vote for either candidate that I would be willing to try and convince.
dapperbandit
Banned
I would be worried if I was in her campaign. The gap has been shrinking, not because Trump is doing any better but because of increased negative attention on Hillary. I think the FBI decision to not recommend indictment after presenting a long list of things she did wrong has been really quite damaging as it feeds directly into the "Crooked Hillary" meme that she's corrupt and can get away with it. Not to forget that she's still under FBI investigation for the Clinton Foundation, which, regardless of what's found there will provide ammunition to Trump.
As much as "Shy Tory" is a phenomenon in the UK, you can bet "Shy Trump supporter" is a thing too and the race may potentially be closer than the polls indicate.
I would also be worried about the debates because as we've seen, Trump doesn't actually need to take them seriously and actually present coherent arguments and can still "win". The debates will be watched by millions of people which could either mean millions of people see Trump get schooled or see him walk all over her.
Bear in mind, Hillary's had several (at least three) long coughing fits during rallies in the primaries, if that happens on stage during a debate, well, it won't look good.
Lastly violence at RNC protests this week could be undermining for the Democrats as well.
As much as "Shy Tory" is a phenomenon in the UK, you can bet "Shy Trump supporter" is a thing too and the race may potentially be closer than the polls indicate.
I would also be worried about the debates because as we've seen, Trump doesn't actually need to take them seriously and actually present coherent arguments and can still "win". The debates will be watched by millions of people which could either mean millions of people see Trump get schooled or see him walk all over her.
Bear in mind, Hillary's had several (at least three) long coughing fits during rallies in the primaries, if that happens on stage during a debate, well, it won't look good.
Lastly violence at RNC protests this week could be undermining for the Democrats as well.
gutter_trash
Banned
the close race narrative is the best thing to fight voter complacency
2000 was full of it, never forget
2000 was full of it, never forget
yeah, no. You aren't going to change the mind of a trump supporter with things like facts and kindness, so all they get and all they deserve is mocking and derision.
Applying Trumps primary win to anything beyond that is political naivety to the extreme.
Maybe if this is your first election? The aggregates aren't even particularly close in modern political terms.
I mean I'm all for people being vigilant and not getting complacent, but Trump is currently losing badly, the polls show that, and trying to play concern troll about then situation is just bull. Nobody should be worried based on the current trajectory.
Team Alucard
Banned
We've had ENDA laws since 2007. Even Terry Braindead isn't dumb enough to pull a McCrory.
What debates? You think Trump is gonna talk seriously about issues? nah, he is gonna make fun of Clinton and have people laughing. It's why he is where he is.
538 has Hilary's chances back close to 80%
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=mobilebar
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=mobilebar
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
I think you mean back close to 70.
teruterubozu
Member
Might as well copy and paste responses at this point. 4 more months of this folks.
A Link to the Past
Banned
Good people don't like to gamble with that. Trump is an unprecedented mess and is going to push the country further right socially in every way.
I didn't, but that's because I underestimated how horrendous the Republican party has got.
But all political observers know that Republican primary != general electorate and that the standards are ridiculously different. So even if you failed to call Trump in the primary, it says nothing as to your ability to read polls and understand how poorly he is doing in the general.
EatinOlives
Member
Until there's genuine reason to believe that there's enough racist, angry gullible people in America to make up an entirely new demographic in key swing states where he needs them (nobody gives a shit if he pulls in 5 million new votes in Texas), I remain un-freaked out. Primaries don't mean anything to predict the general election. There's always one candidate who wins their primary who then loses the general, so "but he won the primary!" doesn't mean anything.
So in a presidential election year, already with shitty numbers and high unlikeable numbers, and after a 3 week span in which there were 4 Dallas police officers shot, a terror attack at an Orlando nightclub, and the FBI telling her she's irresponsible...
Trump is still only leading in a couple swing states by 3?
Yeah. I've said it before... this thing is over after Hillary destroys him in the first debate. Nothing I've seen has changed my mind from that.
Trump is still only leading in a couple swing states by 3?
Yeah. I've said it before... this thing is over after Hillary destroys him in the first debate. Nothing I've seen has changed my mind from that.
metalslimer
Member
Yeah once you got to November/ December of last year things became a lot more clear. Trump dominated the primaries from the time her got in to the end. There was a small time when Carson came close but the media destroyed him.
Compare that with him struggling to even pass Hilary in most polls and that makes this completely different already. Now it's important to win as big as possible to ensure a Senate win.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
There were no "shy Trumpies" in the primaries. He modestly underperformed his polling, in fact.
As your US Senator I pledge to increase GAF funding by 90% over the next 5 years.
True; I'm more taking-apart the idea that those of us who giggle at Trump's G.E. chances largely overlap with those who were skeptical of his primary chances.
And I wish we had a sticky about your GOP electorate!= GE electorate point. For some magical reasons, this key point hasn't sunk-in.
This year does read like a Right Wing fanfic, crazy how Trump have been given so much ammo and miss uses it.
Lol destroy him in debates? He hasnt "won" a single debate in his life, but he makes enough quips to "win" the meme debate and dominate news cycles non stop. Never underestimate celebrity mixed with anger and a apathetic/got it in the bag democratic voting base combined with a dumb casual celebrity one. Don't sleep on Trump or we end up scratching our heads november 8th.
BlastProcessing
Member
So as long as Iowa's ENDA laws are safe you don't care for the rest of the country?
He can get away with that shit in the primaries, but that shit won't fly now.
They were warned and instead of even borrowing from burnie they have let hillary get trolled away to this point by trump. Not only that she made matters worse with email situation. Regardless of charges a good part of the population sees what she did as shady, sorry hilldog gaf that's reality. She needs to hitback not just warren.
Most youth don't trust here, which is how obama won. She will not own up to youth, black or lgbtq issues in any real way maybe if she did she could convince more around me to vote for her. I'm voting for america through her but to be straight up like most others I would sit or not vote if it wasn't for trump.
Most youth don't trust here, which is how obama won. She will not own up to youth, black or lgbtq issues in any real way maybe if she did she could convince more around me to vote for her. I'm voting for america through her but to be straight up like most others I would sit or not vote if it wasn't for trump.
what?
Lol it's the American people you really think discussing the issues is more entertaining than Trump making fun of Hilary?
A Link to the Past
Banned
"formerly sane"
bruh, at the very least, black voters and LGBT voters are the ones coming out this year to vote because the stakes are too high.
They didn't borrow from Bernie don't you see despite giving him more concessions on the Democratic platform than essentially any Democratic primary loser in history i mean this is why Hillary is ahead in virtually all aggregates and battleground states because she didn't listen to the vot--oh
You are confusing your opinion with reality. Hillary is fluent in all major youth, poc, and lgbtq issues and has overwhelming support among those demos. It's not hard to find out these things.
Vincent Alexander
Member
Agreed. The only way Trump will win is if voters don't get out there because they think Hilary is a sure-win. What an embarrassing fuckup that will be for this country if it happens.
pfft lamestream media can't fool me
Auto_aim1
MeisaMcCaffrey
I hope he does because it will be a wake up call for many Republicans who will choose country over party. I believe Americans become kinda serious around Sept-Nov, so if he does what he did in the primaries he will be in big trouble. I still kinda expect him to get around 40-50 million votes and as I said before, that's pretty depressing.
This is somewhat my view.
I don't fear Trump winning at all. But I don't want an uncomfortably close election. If Trump only loses by Romney margins, it'll still be an indictment of the country we live in.
I want Hillary to blow him the fuck out. So I do hope the campaign is looking at these close numbers and thinking seriously about how to counter them. Counter Trump's ability to dominate the news cycle, and keep the fear of God in the left.
legacyzero
Banned
TBH, I'm shocked to see as many as there are coming out of the woodwork. Hell, even my own father (who is a 50+ crotchety old man now apparently) Who didn't raise me to be any of those things, is now one of those annoying fucks spamming my Facebook feed with anti-islam, pro cop/ anti BLM, build that wall!, bullshit. And it's strange because since his popularity has spiked, so has the amount of bullshit in my feeds.
CarpeDeezNutz
Member
Trump 2016!
I must be crazy cause Hillary stay surrounded by Mothers of the movement and other groups.
Tranqueris
Banned
Can't blame em, I'd probably be feeling pretty desperate today if I was a Trump supporter after the garbage fire that was/is Trump's VP selection process.
Man, all the things that have happened:
Trump being forced into picking Pence.
Trump trying to get out of it at the last second.
And the apparent nightmare that was today's rally with Pence.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
"DEMS IN DISARRAY" - excited media.
No one gets scared faster than democrats in Washington. Hillary had a terrible week but that doesn't change the reality on the ground: she has significantly more money and resources than her opponent, who literally has no ground game right now in mid July. I think Hillary is an incredibly flawed candidate who could be beaten in a primary or general election by a great candidate...but no such candidate exists. Instead she's running against arguably the worst general election candidate in modern history.
Show me a logical path to 270 for Trump. I wouldn't be stunned if he doesn't get to 206 (Romney 2012).
No one gets scared faster than democrats in Washington. Hillary had a terrible week but that doesn't change the reality on the ground: she has significantly more money and resources than her opponent, who literally has no ground game right now in mid July. I think Hillary is an incredibly flawed candidate who could be beaten in a primary or general election by a great candidate...but no such candidate exists. Instead she's running against arguably the worst general election candidate in modern history.
Show me a logical path to 270 for Trump. I wouldn't be stunned if he doesn't get to 206 (Romney 2012).
Team Alucard
Banned
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Well you can throw that Virginia path out the window. It went blue in 2014 of all times and the polling there is surprisingly solid.
The question isn't "what are some states where if you add up the numbers they would add up to 270."
8 X 11 Printer Paper
Member
And Pennsylvania is the Republicans presidential election unicorn, and it's another state who demographics are sliding farther to the left.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
That's not necessarily true about the demographics but as long as turnout in Philly and Pittsburgh are high it is difficult to overturn.
BlastProcessing
Member
Man, if you think those examples are your best chance... Godspeed my friend.
A Link to the Past
Banned
Wait, so the solution for Trump's 270 problem is "do significantly better than Romney"?
- Status