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Explain to me why this is untenable / dumb

BennyBlanco

aka IMurRIVAL69
Hear me out. Your chances of winning a hand of blackjack are 50/50. Say I went to the casino every day and played a $500 hand of blackjack. If I lose I play $1,000. If I lose that I play $2,000. So on and so forth until I win my original $500 bet. Then I take my money and walk out the door. Never playing more than that or less than that. Some days you would win on the first hand and some days you might lose 6 in a row but once you win that one hand that’s it.

Is this ONE WEIRD TRICK to making nearly 200k a year with zero effort? Would the casino goons break my legs after a few months of this? Obviously Im not gonna quit my job and do this but I don’t see how this would fail if you had the self control to walk out after you won every time.
 

Mr Reasonable

Completely Unreasonable
That's called the martingale system.

It doesn't work because on a bad streak you go bankrupt quickly.

Presumably if you did get enough of a bankroll to make it work, within a relatively short amount of time, the casinos would thank you for your business and bar you.

EDIT: and yes, lose 5 hands in a row and you'd need to have walked in with 31,500 to be able to play the next hand. And it's a 50:50 on if you'll then need another 32k.
 
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BennyBlanco

aka IMurRIVAL69
That's called the martingale system.

It doesn't work because on a bad streak you go bankrupt quickly.

Oh damn. Should’ve known this was already a thing.

And yeah you would need a juicy bankroll and nerves of steel once you started losing but it seems doable to me lol.
 

Porcile

Member
Might as well just learn how to count cards, I forgot all the technical terms but assuming you play the correct way and don't just gamble, the odds in blackjack under the certain rules are actually in the players favor (unlike other nearly all other casino games) so over time you would be guaranteed to win money. You would need a substantial bankroll behind you though, but indeed over time the percentages and probability means the player would eventually beat the casino. Which is why blackjack often has betting limits and things like that. Its pretty interesting to learn how casinos and gambling really work and it's why I will never place a bet or play a casino game in my life unless I learned how to count cards.
 

BennyBlanco

aka IMurRIVAL69
Might as well just learn how to count cards, I forgot all the technical terms but assuming you play the correct way and don't just gamble, the odds in blackjack under the certain rules are actually in the players favor (unlike other nearly all other casino games) so over time you would be guaranteed to win money. You would need a substantial bankroll behind you though, but indeed over time the percentages and probability means the player would eventually beat the casino. Which is why blackjack often has betting limits and things like that. Its pretty interesting to learn how casinos and gambling really work and it's why I will never place a bet or play a casino game in my life unless I learned how to count cards.

It’s nearly impossible to count cards now with how many decks there are in a shoe now
 
Also, this doesn't work because of the green. Your odds are 48%/49%, so the house wins.

HOWEVER, I've used the Martingale system on three separate casino visits, and came out ahead each time. The world record for a streak of one color is 8x (I think), so odds are you'll win money if you go in with a plan.

Find a table with a low min and high max bet, and bet the min while doubling your bet if you lose, and go in knowing you might put huge bets up to make minor gains. I would roll on the same color until i won, then I'd switch colors to account for color streak odds. I had a couple hands where I was betting ~$128 to make back $2 because of those pesky greens, but if you stay calm, it does work
 
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BennyBlanco

aka IMurRIVAL69
Also, this doesn't work because of the green. Your odds are 48%/49%, so the house wins.

HOWEVER, I've used the Martingale system on three separate casino visits, and came out ahead each time. The world record for a streak of one color is 8x (I think), so odds are you'll win money if you go in with a plan.

Find a table with a low min and high max bet, and bet the min while doubling your bet if you lose, and go in knowing you might put huge bets up to make minor gains. I would roll on the same color until i won, then I'd switch colors to account for color streak odds. I had a couple hands where I was betting ~$128 to make back $2 because of those pesky greens, but if you stay calm, it does work

Yea if you’re playing roulette. Blackjack odds are legit 50/50. The only thing that throws it off are your odds of pushing which you still aren’t losing on.
 
Yea if you’re playing roulette. Blackjack odds are legit 50/50. The only thing that throws it off are your odds of pushing which you still aren’t losing on.
Man, I skimmed the OP, and saw the Martingale method mentioned later and assumed we were talking roulette. I'll blame it on posting on the toilet first thing in the morning before the caffeine kicked in.
 

Toots

Gold Member
Unfortunately it won't work for the reasons smarter gaffer explained above.

But there's still a way to make a lot of money with casinos, so hear me out now.

Say im a professional thief released from a New Jersey prison after four years and i travel to Los Angeles to reunite with my friend and colleague Rusty Ryan. We both travel to Las Vegas to secure the financial backing of our wealthy friend Reuben Tishkoff to undertake a multi-million dollar heist in which they will rob three casinos owned by Tishkoff's ruthless rival Terry Benedict: the Bellagio, the Mirage, and the MGM Grand. Legally required to have enough cash available to cover all their patrons' bets, I estimate that on the eve of an upcoming high-profile boxing match, the casinos will hold over $150 million in an underground vault guarded by virtually unassailable security measures and systems. Having been forced out of his casino by Benedict, Tishkoff readily agrees to participate.

Rusty and I recruit six former acquaintances: con man Frank Catton, aging and retired con man Saul Bloom, auto specialists Virgil and Turk Malloy, explosives expert Basher Tarr, and surveillance technician Livingston Dell, as well as acrobat Yen and pickpocket Linus Caldwell. Each member is assigned to infiltrate or surveil the Bellagio to learn about the security, the routines, the behaviors of the casino staff, and the building itself. We also build a precise replica of the vault to practice the heist. Linus is tasked with tracking Benedict himself, eventually uncovering that he is dating my ex-wife Tess. Furious at my deception and believing Im motivated mainly by reconnecting with Tess, Rusty tells me to call off the heist, but I refuse. I later meets with Tess, who is still hurt by our former relationship, and Benedict who has me barred from his casinos.

The team commence the heist while I enter the Bellagio and Benedict has me detained in a surveillance-free room to be beaten by Bruiser, who is secretly working with me. I use the room's vent to reach the vault elevator and meet up with Linus who has infiltrated the casino as a gambling official. Meanwhile, Saul convinces Benedict to secure a briefcase of jewels—actually disguised explosives—in the vault, while Virgil and Turk smuggle Yen into the vault in a casino trolley. Basher triggers a stolen EMP device which disables electricity across Las Vegas including the laser grid protecting the elevator shaft, allowing me and Linus to descend to the vault entrance. Both of us neutralize the guards and, with Yen, use Saul's "jewels" to destroy the vault locks and secure the cash.

Rusty calls Benedict and reveals the robbery, blackmailing him to surrender half the cash to a van waiting outside or they will blow up all of the money. Verifying the compromised vault by camera, Benedict complies but has his men pursue the van while summoning a SWAT team to retake the vault. During the SWAT team's assault the explosives are detonated, destroying the remaining half of the cash while the thieves seemingly escape. Meanwhile, the van is discovered to be under remote control and the money inside is actually prostitution advertisements. Benedict dismisses the SWAT team before realizing that the footage he witnessed was manipulated as the vault in the video lacked the Bellagio logo on its floor; the footage was created using the team's replica vault.

It is revealed later that, after intercepting the 911 call, my team entered the casino disguised as SWAT members and left the vault unhindered with duffel bags containing over $160 million in cash. I return to the secure room before Benedict arrives to confront him. Tess receives a call telling her to watch her TV which shows a surveillance camera feed of me tricking Benedict into admitting that he would give up Tess in exchange for the money's return. Unable to connect me to the heist, Benedict instead has me arrested for violating my parole by leaving New Jersey; Tess and I reconcile before I'm taken away. As dawn breaks, the remaining team contemplate our victory in front of the Fountains of Bellagio before going their separate ways.

Several months later, I'm released from prison and picked up by Rusty and Tess. We drive off, followed by Benedict's men.

So who's in ?
 

poppabk

Cheeks Spread for Digital Only Future
Yea if you’re playing roulette. Blackjack odds are legit 50/50. The only thing that throws it off are your odds of pushing which you still aren’t losing on.
The odds aren't 50:50 the house has about a 1% advantage due to going last and so not having to risk busting if you already went bust.
 
depends how much your bank accounts and stomach can handle....youre going to get to a number that you can't withstand and youll have to take the L

losing streaks can continue well longer than you'd think reasonable

after losing so many times in a row, could you really convince yourself to double down again? 20 losses and down 500k... will you risk 1 million for one more try? what if it doesnt hit? risk 2 million for one more? you gotta win sometime right?
 
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