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Gafia 3 [Mafia] | Welcome to Lynchwood Acres

Burbeting

Banned
I feel little uncertain about Splinter, but I don't think either him or Kawl should be the lynch target today. It's more likely to be one of the ordinary claims.... although one post from Dragonz rings alarm bells:

If I were on a scum team do you honestly think they'd have me claim a neutral

I've played scum a few times and we ALWAYS claim vanilla. Hence why I don't trust anyone who claimed on the last page.

This kind of screams "All of the power role claimers are town!"
 

*Splinter

Member
If my response is "weak" then it's because I can't read Ouro's mind. My role is what it is, I can only guess at what Ouro was thinking when he made it...
 
Fuck, there's another day? That's legitimately more disappointing than being up this early.

He had the worst reactions to my argument as well. If I wasn't convinced they are all linked he'd probably be my first choice.

As it is, I don't care what order we lynch them in. I'm convinced they are a team.
Glad we've come so far since yesterday. Like I said yesterday, why don't we lynch the one that just about everybody seems to agree on at least?

If we're all wrong about TWE then gg, town was doomed to lose this anyway. I don't have anymore breath to waste arguing over the rest of the team until we confirm this much.

Generally I would say town conversation is good and let's use the rest of this day phase but if Splinter's argument is the best we have then let's just turbo and get this done with. Turbo me, turbo twe. I don't really give a fuck which. This town has not actually hunted a single scum. Blarg suicided and dragonz delivered herself on a platter. We're so bad that actually voting for scum is apparently a scum tell.
 
Reread Splinter's claim. I had forgotten how word it was. One, he claimed early while Faddy himself was saying he didn't feel pressure. Then he advises faddy that he may be night killed now in case he wants to claim.

It was weird.

I bought it though because this was d4. 16 players left. Dragonz still alive. 12 non-mafia. It's not crazy odds but he would still be rolling the dice and hoping Faddy wasn't neutral. Then scum did indeed nk faddy the next day before kyanrute won. N4 was double kill and we ml'd acohrs that day and swamped d5.

Which means faddy has a 1 in 8 chance of being neutral if there is one when scum nk's him. Again, splinter would be lynched immediately in that case. Seems risky.




But it's far from the least plausible theory currently knocking around.
 

franconp

Member
I have just arrived home and read everything and I feel we are kind of dragging this out. There isn't really new development. Tomorrow is saturday which is tipically a low activity day here so it maybe even worse.

Let's keep it simple: I want to lynch TWE because I believe he is scum. Our safest lynch today. Whom does everyone want to lynch today?
 

*Splinter

Member
Reread Splinter's claim. I had forgotten how word it was. One, he claimed early while Faddy himself was saying he didn't feel pressure. Then he advises faddy that he may be night killed now in case he wants to claim.

It was weird.

I bought it though because this was d4. 16 players left. Dragonz still alive. 12 non-mafia. It's not crazy odds but he would still be rolling the dice and hoping Faddy wasn't neutral. Then scum did indeed nk faddy the next day before kyanrute won. N4 was double kill and we ml'd acohrs that day and swamped d5.

Which means faddy has a 1 in 8 chance of being neutral if there is one when scum nk's him. Again, splinter would be lynched immediately in that case. Seems risky.




But it's far from the least plausible theory currently knocking around.
Also this complaint made more sense when I was assumed to be a cop. As a JOAT with only one more useful power it makes way more sense to claim.

1. Clear Faddy
2. Imply I'm a cop
3. Self protect
4. Gloat

Btw did Faddy say he didn't feel pressure? I don't remember that, but it would have been a pretty wrong assessment of the thread if he did.
 

*Splinter

Member
I want to get some final key thoughts out in case the turbo happens while I'm asleep as I've got a feeling I'll be the next NK.


1. IF FEP or Fran flip scum, the other is also scum. With 100% certainty. 11/10 certainty. I'm mostly worried about Fran here. Don't let him talk his way out of this hole with a few generic "townie" posts. I really can't emphasise this post enough:

Your reaction to my argument tells me more than the votes alone ever could.


For the chucklefucks who will only skimread what just happened, here is a recap:

I make an argument based on the day 5 votes that the remaining scum are Worthy, Fran, and FEP.

*Important Note*: if even one of these is town, scum will happily push my argument along since it leads to a scum win.

-Fran argues with me as if I had presented a 100% slam dunk case where every scum would be caught out and no town could have been mistakenly implicated.
-FEP calls me crazy and acts like the logic is hard to follow.

Based on this, I'm willing to bet that one of the following is true:

1. Fran and FEP are both town.
2. The remaining scum are exactly Worthy, Fran, and FEP.

Can you tell which way I'm leaning?
^and I can add to that post that no players I trust criticized the logic in my argument at any point, and that Kawl's response was entirely in line with how I would expect a townie in his position to respond. If CCS' support had been the first response I'd've jumped off that argument immediately, but coming when it did (much later) I'm fine with it.


2. Just one last point against Fran:

I'm townreading Gorlak. He is my stronger town read (except Burb obviously). He seems to be invested in the game, trying to look for scum. I may be wrong, nobody has the real answer except scum but he isn't a player that I would target today.

The scum list is mostly process of elimination. We know that Burb is town, I know that I'm town, I think Gorlak and you are town. The rest I don't know. I'm pretty much convinced that TWE is scum. I really think that CCS is scum (he coasted a lot during the first days and then became a low presence in the game, going under the radar. His reads of WAMD seems like a bus, saying that she is scum but never really going fully after her). I think the other scum is either Kawl or FEP (where it said and should said or). Leaning to Kawl (the first days of Kawl he game Kawl seemed more interested in discuss Mafia theory than really look for scum, After that he remained in a medium presence, never fully commiting to the game. I can't remember a post where Kawl really tried to find scum, all seems like weak). FEP as a really low activity and a low participation too. Most of his game is tunneling on Acohrs. He avoided my attempt to gain more reads out of him day 5. I'm still not sure which of them could be.
I didn't bother responding to this earlier because there's not a single new or unique thought in here. If you tried to write down a list of generally-held opinions in this thread at the start of this phase, this post is exactly what you'd get. Fran is a player I can usually rely on giving a... different perspective of things. And this post gives me nothing. Fran has done nothing but push Worthy all game. Yesterday we were pretty much unanimously against Worthy, to the extent that he only survived because we got cold feet, and yet fran still felt the need to open today with a long case against him, while making no attempt to look at anyone else.


3. If I'm wrong about anyone it's TWE, but he seems to have checked out now so I'm not worried about that being the case either.


I think that's all. Don't fuck this up etc.
 
VOTE: Franconp

You're wrong Splinter, about me at least. Fran and FEP I believe are scum but if you actually lynch me your whole "comeback" will simply be an L for Town. What a comeback that would be?
 
"This town doesn't deserve to win"

"Give up"
I mean, is your winning strategy not "the only people who voted scum are scum"? Has the town actually hunted a scum yet? We don't know 100% that a scum has even been a vote contender yet. So yeah, this town is garbage and we all should feel bad. I don't want to give up but if you want to close the game mislynching me is rather get it done sooner rather than later. But really, we should just knock TWE out, put both of our allegedly remaining protection roles on burbeting and sort through whatever fallout tomorrow brings, which is likely a dead burb because i don't think we do have two protection roles left and i believe it's possible there is a role blocker.
Also this complaint made more sense when I was assumed to be a cop. As a JOAT with only one more useful power it makes way more sense to claim.

1. Clear Faddy
2. Imply I'm a cop
3. Self protect
4. Gloat

Btw did Faddy say he didn't feel pressure? I don't remember that, but it would have been a pretty wrong assessment of the thread if he did.

I don't think there's any point obfuscating this any longer

Never Forever, JOAT (Cop/Name Cop/Doc)

N1 - Cop check Verelios (blocked)
N2 - Cop check Faddy (Town)
N3 - Protect Bronx
N4 - Name check swamped (blocked)
N5 - Name check Worthy (blocked)

So yeah, nothing worth sharing beyond "Faddy is town". Thought I'd try and fish for a night kill at least since I can't see name cop being useful.

But you didn't self protect... you didn't even protect the person you cleared. None of this makes any sense at all.
And here's your post to faddy after.
Faddy you should be aware there's a good chance you'll die tonight. Not telling you whether or not you should claim but making sure you recognise the situation.

I'm unavailable for the next 4 hours at least, will try to get on before deadline but might not be able to.
Cop reveal to protect someone who is not in immediate danger and doesn't feel pressured.
I haven't felt under pressure at all despite all my bad play. I genuinely thought I would be screwed after the Crab lynch and said as much to franconp. Then after my late day change on acohrs I thought again I would be faced with a few early votes.
But you claimed you might not make deadline so i accepted it.
 
Fran, want to put a vote on worthy?

If we're wrong and he's town, scum will turbo and end the game. If that doesn't happen, it will mean at least one of us three is scum and make the day more interesting. Will likely end up with either me or worthy lynch, which puts town at 50/50, which is slightly better than what we have now.
 

CCS

Banned
For me there are two likely game states:

Kawl and Splinter are both telling the truth, scum is TWE, FEP, and Fran.

One of them is lying (but not both), scum is Kawl/Splinter, one of (but probably not both of) FEP/Fran, and someone else, possibly but not certainly TWE.
 

franconp

Member
2. Just one last point against Fran:


I didn't bother responding to this earlier because there's not a single new or unique thought in here. If you tried to write down a list of generally-held opinions in this thread at the start of this phase, this post is exactly what you'd get. Fran is a player I can usually rely on giving a... different perspective of things. And this post gives me nothing. Fran has done nothing but push Worthy all game. Yesterday we were pretty much unanimously against Worthy, to the extent that he only survived because we got cold feet, and yet fran still felt the need to open today with a long case against him, while making no attempt to look at anyone else.

What other perspective do you want me to give? I have been going on with lynching TWE since day 2. We are at day 7. I'm really tired of this. Just look at the post I made when the day started. There is everything there: OMGUS, Quick change of reads, weird votes, relation with proven scum, posting all around the place, coasting, weak excuses, etc. It's like an scum rulebook there. But people keep giving him passes. Don't know why.

I looked at everyone but I only pressured to get him lynched. Why? Because we don't have the luxury to make a mistake. We are in a shitty situation where everyday could be the last. We don't need to look for scum teams at this point. It's pointless. We need to catch one scum. Just one. Then we see how the night goes and we do this all over again. That's what we get for not finding any scum until now.
 

*Splinter

Member
I mean, is your winning strategy not "the only people who voted scum are scum"?
By gum you're right! It sounds completely ridiculous when you put it that way!

Thank you for demonstrating the importance of context in Mafia.

Again, you are resorting to pretending my argument was ridiculous despite the fact that noone else has struggled with it.

Plus my more important argument doesn't reference the votes at all, it's the one I quoted in my last post that talks about responses.

Has the town actually hunted a scum yet? We don't know 100% that a scum has even been a vote contender yet. So yeah, this town is garbage and we all should feel bad.
Yeah that's the spirit /s

I don't want to give up but if you want to close the game mislynching me is rather get it done sooner rather than later. But really, we should just knock TWE out, put both of our allegedly remaining protection roles on burbeting and sort through whatever fallout tomorrow brings, which is likely a dead burb because i don't think we do have two protection roles left and i believe it's possible there is a role blocker.
Well, we are lynching TWE today. I don't think there's much chance of it being anyone else, despite, which is why it's so funny that you and Fran continue to push it so much. Everyone else is (or was) discussing other stuff because we don't need to spend an entire day on an obvious lynch.

The bit of PR direction in there reinforces my suspicion that I (or maybe Gorlak) will be killed tonight.

But you didn't self protect... you didn't even protect the person you cleared. None of this makes any sense at all.
And here's your post to faddy after.
This is where the post goes from bad to outright scummy.

I claimed on D4. It's already been revealed that I've been hiding my doc shot since N3, so obviously the claims for the following nights are bullshit.

And you know that my Faddy claim was on D4 because you went and found a quote from it. But the way you presented this accusation with my night actions implies I claimed D3 (since I checked Faddy N2) and then protected Bronx that night. Leaving out the fact that I claimed D4 is intentionally misleading.

Cop reveal to protect someone who is not in immediate danger and doesn't feel pressured.

But you claimed you might not make deadline so i accepted it.
Holy intentionally misleading batman!

Anyone remember this post from D4?
Don't use my poor play to excuse your own.

My point is that you only start to make a push once it becomes clear that a townie has a large vote lead. Your defence of Crab can be seen in a couple of ways. That you town read him and didn't want him lynched OR you knew he was town and wanted to earn yourself Townie Points by being his biggest defender when it looked highly likely he was going to be lynched.

Town/Town trains.
Day 1 - Crab vs Swamped
were the two trains you tried to engineer
Day 2 - Crab made it clear he wanted to go after me or Vere. If either gained traction it would be a town/town train making your plea for the vote to close up a safe play for scum.
Bolding is mine.

Again, you went back to find that D4 quote, so you MUST have seen this post, and all the reactions in the thread that followed it, and yet you still present Faddy as "not in immediate danger" with a quote that only proves he can't read the room. This is hilariously blatant.

And again, a cop reveal for a single green check is only unusual for someone who is actually a cop. It's a much more obvious play for a JOAT, especially one with a protective shot remaining.

What a terrible, baseless, argument against someone you apparently "town read". Could you make your scumminess any more obvious?
 

*Splinter

Member
I guess you were right. You should have waited until tomorrow to defend yourself.

Much easier to ignore an argument when you've killed the person that presented it.
 

*Splinter

Member
Fran, want to put a vote on worthy?

If we're wrong and he's town, scum will turbo and end the game. If that doesn't happen, it will mean at least one of us three is scum and make the day more interesting. Will likely end up with either me or worthy lynch, which puts town at 50/50, which is slightly better than what we have now.
Yes. Yes Fran wants to put a vote on Worthy. You know this. I know this. Everyone else in the game knows this. There is an undiscovered tribe deep in the Amazon rainforest, and even they know this.

The two of you can (or should have) relaxed on Worthy. He'll probably be lynched today no matter how scummy you make yourselves. It's hilarious how out of touch the two of you are on this.

Fran let's do it.
Why Fran anyway? Did you forget you are scumreading him? Shouldn't we make sure that Burb and Gorlak, the players you actually "trust", have said their piece?
 

*Splinter

Member
What other perspective do you want me to give? I have been going on with lynching TWE since day 2. We are at day 7. I'm really tired of this. Just look at the post I made when the day started. There is everything there: OMGUS, Quick change of reads, weird votes, relation with proven scum, posting all around the place, coasting, weak excuses, etc. It's like an scum rulebook there. But people keep giving him passes. Don't know why.

I looked at everyone but I only pressured to get him lynched. Why? Because we don't have the luxury to make a mistake. We are in a shitty situation where everyday could be the last. We don't need to look for scum teams at this point. It's pointless. We need to catch one scum. Just one. Then we see how the night goes and we do this all over again. That's what we get for not finding any scum until now.
I'll let you in on a little secret Fran:

...


...


Everyone in this game is scumreading Worthy

Shocking I know. I only became aware of this when each player stated it, multiple times over, some of them over several day phases.

You can stop beating this drum. The war is over, Worthy is scum.


Your second paragraph is just wrong, basically. It's mylo. We need to look at everything, we need to discuss everything, scum teams should be at least considered.

One mistake ends the game, we can't afford to leave anything out.
 

franconp

Member
I'll let you in on a little secret Fran:

...


...


Everyone in this game is scumreading Worthy

Shocking I know. I only became aware of this when each player stated it, multiple times over, some of them over several day phases.

You can stop beating this drum. The war is over, Worthy is scum.


Your second paragraph is just wrong, basically. It's mylo. We need to look at everything, we need to discuss everything, scum teams should be at least considered.

One mistake ends the game, we can't afford to leave anything out.

I wasn't talking about last day, I was talking about the previous one. Day 5 TWE was all over the place, he changed his views and votes every couple of hours and then tried to pull some really faulty logic with an OMGUS. To me he was the best option that day but the one lynched was Swamped.

I want to know if everyone is ok with turboing TWE before making the vote.
 
You couldn't have used your doc shot on the ascetic. So you could have given true reads and still had the doc shot. But now we know you're lying about all your actions. So thanks.

Your gotchas are getting worse and worse every day, Splinter.

Fran, i really would like to see this vote.

If Splinter doesn't pull his head out of his ass in two hours i will vote him. Anyone absolutely positive I'm scum can jump in. If I'm scum, he can't be scum turbo'd. If I'm not, we'll lose. There's no wifom. Scum will grab the win rather than leave us to wifom and lynch me later. I will put my money where my mouth is and drop my votes on people not interested in playing rationally.

Splinter, I'm not pretending your argument is garbage. It is. I will lose the game now rather than later.
 
Also Fran, it isn't a matter of turboing twe. If he gets turbo'd it means you, me, and him are all town and we were going to lose anyway.

Scum can't turbo if we get one scum involved in any two vote situation. They need two town on town to turbo. Once we get two votes the game will either end quickly or it will drag out the rest of the day while the rest decide who is the most likely scum and lynch normally at eod.
 

franconp

Member
Also Fran, it isn't a matter of turboing twe. If he gets turbo'd it means you, me, and him are all town and we were going to lose anyway.

Scum can't turbo if we get one scum involved in any two vote situation. They need two town on town to turbo. Once we get two votes the game will either end quickly or it will drag out the rest of the day while the rest decide who is the most likely scum and lynch normally at eod.

I think we need a turbo. We can't reach end day without a clear objetive as scum can change their votes at the last minute and screw us over. The gap between scum votes and mayority is to low to not make a turbo today.
 
This is why this needs to be done now. It avoids crazy end of day crap. Scum has plenty of time to do their turbo and town has like 8-10 hours to decide on who to actually lynch.

Fran, if you believe truly that either or both me and twe are scum, drop the vote now.

I think twe is scum and Splinter will get to gloat about having his whole claimed team on this lynch, more sure than ever that he guessed right and we deal with it tomorrow in which case i will choose my biggest scum suspect and pull the exact same shit within hours of day start.
 
This also means that all other town need to hold their votes until eod once someone hits two votes.

The only wifom is when there's no turbo, who out of the today is the scum. And whether it not I'm town risking everyone's loss to counter splinters ridiculous bullshit or am i scum just fucking about.

It's the former
 

CCS

Banned
I do not want a turbo. I will almost certainly vote TWE at day end, but I want more time for other players to contribute and be examined.
 

Burbeting

Banned
I'm not going to be active today (Parents 60yrs birthday), but I'll hopefully be able to post later on.

TWE is still my top scum, but I feel wavering a little about it again. But so I wavered about Dragonz, so...
 

Burbeting

Banned
FEP, if TWE and Splinter are both scum, then it wouldn't really matter if we lynched TWE first, right? TWE flipping scum could give us more info on the Swamped lynch, where splinter basically begged for the vote to be flipped from twe to her.
 

*Splinter

Member
YES I STILL HAVE A DOC SHOT

YES I HID THIS WHEN I CLAIMED

I DID THIS SO SCUM WOULD NOT BLOCK ME AND I CAN PREVENT A KILL

THIS IS NOT A COMPLICATED PLAY
 
The only way lynching TWE matters is if he's town. Which then, to me, makes Fran definitely scum. Give it a few hours and we definitely have one.

If splinter and twe are the scum, we really have no choice but to lynch twe. With two on twe now, it really doesn't make sense for scum to not turbo asap.

If twe is still around end of day, he should be lynched. There's a bit of wifom for if scum wait until eod for turbo but really they shouldn't. Much more likely to catch us off-guard. I'm sure fran also has an unvote primed and eod is when we'll be around.
 

*Splinter

Member
The only way lynching TWE matters is if he's town. Which then, to me, makes Fran definitely scum. Give it a few hours and we definitely have one.

If splinter and twe are the scum, we really have no choice but to lynch twe. With two on twe now, it really doesn't make sense for scum to not turbo asap.

If twe is still around end of day, he should be lynched. There's a bit of wifom for if scum wait until eod for turbo but really they shouldn't. Much more likely to catch us off-guard. I'm sure fran also has an unvote primed and eod is when we'll be around.
What am I reading here?

Seriously wtf

You're plan is if scum turbo twe then we will know he is town. We will also know the alignments of everyone then. Because the game will be over.

And if there is no turbo, you would have proven that at least one of TWE, Fran and yourself is scum. This is news to absolutely noone.

And you pretend this is all some calculated risk I mean what else can I even say? This is nonsense.
 

*Splinter

Member
This also means that all other town need to hold their votes until eod once someone hits two votes.
This also means that all other town need to hold their votes until eod once someone hits two votes.
This also means that all other town need to hold their votes until eod once someone hits two votes.
This also means that all other town need to hold their votes until eod once someone hits two votes.
This also means that all other town need to hold their votes until eod once someone hits two votes.
This also means that all other town need to hold their votes until eod once someone hits two votes.
?!
 

*Splinter

Member
For the uninitiated, here is how mylo/lylo has to go for town to have a chance of winning:

1 Noone (town) fucking votes
2 Town comes to a consensus on who to lynch
3 Any other discussions etc to make use of remaining time (optional)
4 Vote for the consensus choice

We are on stage 2/3 at the moment. There is no reality where town just forgets to turbo and scum steal it at the last minute.
 
Lol, look who's getting shook. Not exactly pulling head out of ass but it's a start.

Every minute it looks more likely I've got twe. Scum fran has no reason to fuck about when town is explicitly warned to stfo at two votes. And I'm sure fran also has an unvote primed to prevent the turbo if we can catch it.

I did challenge him specifically but if he wants to unvote and let someone else take vote then whatever. We have time to trade off multiple people who really believe twe is scum. We're fucking about with game end right now anyway.

Town:
Burb
Fran
Me

Scum:
Twe

Splinter
Kawl
CCS


Null:
Gorlak
 

*Splinter

Member
I'm going out in a bit and might be unavailable for the rest of the day.

Am I ok to put a vote down on TWE or is someone going to pretend that wasn't already inevitable?
 

Kawl_USC

Member
I'm going out in a bit and might be unavailable for the rest of the day.

Am I ok to put a vote down on TWE or is someone going to pretend that wasn't already inevitable?

After the snafu earlier missing our entire conversation, I don't really know what to expect any more lol.

But I say go ahead and do it.

I'm at a softball tournament but should be able to check in semi frequently.
 

CCS

Banned
I seem to recall FEP scumreading Fran yesterday. Now switched to townreading. Curious indeed.

Burb/Splinter/Kawl, do you buy my TWE/FEP/FRAN scum team?
 
Scum
Kawl
Gorlak

Not sure
Fran
Dragonz
Worthy

Town
Burbeting
Stan
Splinter

I feel pretty good about this. My only real doubt here is the last scum. My money is on worthy but maybe fran. Feel best about dragonz.

Yep, this definitely fits with my WAMD/TWE/Stan/FEP team.

I seem to recall FEP scumreading Fran yesterday. Now switched to townreading. Curious indeed.

Burb/Splinter/Kawl, do you buy my TWE/FEP/FRAN scum team?

My reads from yesterday, your response. Are you fucking guys even trying?

Scum:
TWE
CCS
Splinter/Kawl
 
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