Games sell consoles--consoles don't sell themselves (unless they are also DVD players, and the year is 2000). People buy the PS3 because it has a large cache of great exclusives, along with access to huge number of excellent multi-platform titles. The 3DS doesn't play DS games well, and the only notable title(s) for the system are the AR games. As "nifty" as the tech is, it's not enough to move consoles without some solid games backing it up. The 3DS won't really catch fire until the holidays, by which point it will have an entire summer's worth of releases along with whatever else is due to be released by Christmas.
Let's take a look at some of Nintendo's other launches:
- The Wii moved units because of its excellent pack-in title. People saw Wii Sports, and had to have a Wii Sports machine. This led to shortages, which further increased demand. "If I don't get the system now, I might not be able to get it later!" Eventually, the hype surrounding the shortage drove sales further, but Wii Sports is what started it all.
- The DS had a pretty awful launch line-up, but compared to the 3DS, it was far easier to buy in. It cost $100 less than the 3DS did, and had SM64 DS to back it up at launch, along with a demo for the next Metroid Prime. The key difference, however, was that the system launched (like the Wii and the Gamecube) right before the holiday season. March, no matter which way you swing it, isn't exactly the ideal month to release new hardware.
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All indications point to the fact that the 3DS was released somewhat prematurely (the lack of marketing, the suspension of the eShop/browser, the lack of first-party support), but there are a few strong arguments for doing so.
- To establish a large library of titles by the holidays. If the 3DS's direct competition, the NGP, is poised for release by Christmas 2011, then the 3DS will undoubtedly have a leg up in terms of software support.
- To avoid shortages. If the 3DS sits in stores for a few months, then there will be ample available supply to satisfy the demand that will accompany the release of Super Mario, Zelda, and Mario Kart.
- To build interest in 3DS development. Now that the 3DS has been formally released, Nintendo can start courting smaller developers (who wouldn't necessarily be keen on risking money on unproven hardware) to fill out the eShop over the next several months.
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The 3DS is weak right now, certainly, but Nintendo still seems confident that they will sell many more units by the year's end. E3 will bring a lot of clarity to Nintendo's plans for the system, and determine its course for the remainder of the year. To think of the system in terms of its current sales is premature, when so much of its success is dependent upon the next 6-7 months.