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[Reuenthal]

Investors deserve their money to be payed back by those who owe them to them. Not saying that I consider a scenario that Greece manages to recover yet investors lose their money a catastrophe, I actually care more about Greece than those who invested in Greece and will lose their money, but a situation where they won't get their money isn't fair to them. And the justification that they chose poorly does not absolve of the country they lend from the responsibility to pay them back. However as I said, I care more about the world economy and Greece having a vital economy than the investors but not being responsible with your economics and failing to pay back your lenders is not behavior I like even if I hope the best for you.

The risk of a Greece default to the rest of the Eurozone is also important, I am not sure whether you think that a dissolution of the Eurozone would be a positive event or that other countries with high debt and economic problems should leave the Eurozone and print their own currency or see only Greece doing that. I think european leaders wanting Greece to stay in the Euro and wanting investors to at least get some of their money back, and wanting the Eurozone to remain are not bad goals. However to achieve them austerity alone will not be sufficient in my view, measures that generate growth that would need to be financed should also be taken.

I apologize for saying

government can't pay for services, wages, anything really because it doesn't have the money and now nobody trusts Greece to lend it the money.

it was really a silly mistake.

But Greece will experience a) significant devaluation of its currency and people become quite poorer, this is very important B) possible banking collapse c) High inflation d) Greece becomes the black sheep of the European family with however negative long and short term effects this will have. E) exit of capital. I also see social problems and violence happening and negative repercussions for Eurozone in general.

Now you might not use the word catastrophe but can you at least agree that Greeks will suffer under a default and eurozone exit with the hope being after some years having positive growth and regaining the income and life quality they used to enjoy. That is assuming a best case scenario which I don't believe will happen but in the best case scenario default and eurozone exit means Greeks suffering with the hope that the suffering stops eventually in best case scenario.

Export wise Greece has tourism which can attract investment but there is not much that tourism allow can do, especially in an unpopular for Europeans Greece.

To put it short I don't believe that making Greece 'poorer' will be sufficient at attracting the necessary investments that are needed and making Greece sufficiently competitive. And Greece becoming poorer has many negative effects. That is kind of my problem with the current austerity measures and their effect actually, they alone also can't solve the issue. But I think the austerity measures will make Greeks less poor and miserable than the default would and there is a better hope for a competitive Greek economy with austerity than with the consequences of the default. There is also a possibility of european investment for Greece to become more competitive and for growth, at least more hope than if Greece becomes the black sheep of Europe. And also with IMF pressure certain measures that are necessary to change structural problems with Greece economy are taken.

Basically making Greece a competitive economy eventually is to the benefit of the Eurozone, and is lenders, so that Greece will be able to pay money back. European leaders can provide money that helps with that, and not focus exclusively to austerity. It is a kind of hopeful scenario but Greece having a future within Eurozone, and not becoming the black European sheep, leaves the best hope for a least poor, competitive Greece.

It is still a case of Greece being between two hard choices, but I see the default consequences making Greeks a lot more poorer and worse off.

 

[HarryHengst]

Investors deserve their money to be payed back by those who owe them to them.

No, they do not. Its in investment, which always bears a risk of losing the money, and that is why they get paid interest. You want them to have their cake and eat it too, which is ridiculous. Investors made a wrong investment, tough luck for them.

 

[confused]

No, they do not. Its in investment, which always bears a risk of losing the money, and that is why they get paid interest. You want them to have their cake and eat it too, which is ridiculous. Investors made a wrong investment, tough luck for them.

For investments yes, for loans no. If you borrow something you have to return it. Otherwise it is no longer borrowing.

 

[alstein]

For investments yes, for loans no. If you borrow something you have to return it. Otherwise it is no longer borrowing.

Loans are also investments.

 

[Mortrialus]

Look if we want to have our normal affair we should get a room/PM. This is poisonself thread (as much as I disagree with it), and not about us, so lets let him and the thead continue free from both of us going tangential. Fair enough? Because other wise we'll just continue this till doomsday like a married couple.

Then why did you go out of your way to make it about you?

 

[f0rk]

Loans are also investments.

I shall tell the bank this when they come to repossess my house.

 

[Alpha-Bromega]

I shall tell the bank this when they come to repossess my house.

apply this to a sovereign nation

 

[alstein]

I shall tell the bank this when they come to repossess my house.

What if there is no house, or it's in such rotten shape that the bank can't make the money back.

 

[Ember128]

apply this to a sovereign nation

This is where stuff starts to get REAL serious.

 

[Manos: The Hans of Fate]

What if there is no house, or it's in such rotten shape that the bank can't make the money back.

Sell the empty land and take a deduction on the loss.

Then why did you go out of your way to make it about you?

I didn't.

 

[hukasmokincaterpillar]

And the justification that they chose poorly does not absolve of the country they lend from the responsibility to pay them back.

So you're saying only rentiers can be absolved for their poor decisions?

That makes sense. Throughout the history of capital, the relatively small constituency of creditors has been such a fragile thing. We must preserve them or else! Whereas the large constituency, the body of people that holds it all together, is ritually thrashed in the name of order. Lest Humpty Dumtpy and all that madness.

It wasn't always so. Debt forgiveness, jubilee, is as old as debt itself. Old as human morality. But we've evolved right?

What is sacred about the sovereign's debt? What does that sort of divinity imply? I think if you look deeply enough, you'll find there is no concrete beneath the economics involved. Money isn't real. What's at heart is politics, political solutions. Austerity is a political choice, based on political motivations, with political outcomes. It is not the only choice.

anthropologist David Graeber on the origins of debt and money:
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011...th-economic-anthropologist-david-graeber.html

 

[Ember128]

It wasn't always so. Debt forgiveness, jubilee, is as old as debt itself. Old as human morality. But we've evolved right?

Exactly. Debt forgiveness, if applied in Africa, or in Nations that simply are unable to repay it, is the best possible thing that could happen. Lending money when it only causes further debt which causes further debt and further interest halts industrial and social progress.

 

[goomba]

International Law cannot override the US Constitution, this is well established precedent. So once again just because Noam Chomsky says it doesn't make it true.

Wait , what?. International law doesnt apply to the US?.

Can China, Russia or Iran decide that their law is also above international law.?

 

[Manos: The Hans of Fate]

Wait , what?. International law doesnt apply to the US?.

Can China, Russia or Iran decide that their law is also above international law.?

In a sense, yes, a treaty or executive agreement cannot override the US constitution. There is even case law on it. I can give you a link.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reid_v._Covert

 

[Mortrialus]

I didn't.

Bullshit. You were the one that made a big stink by denying the claims that the U.S. has committed war crimes. You went out of your way to derail the thread and then tried to pretend that you weren't the one primarily responsible.

 

[Manos: The Hans of Fate]

Bullshit. You were the one that made a big stink by denying the claims that the U.S. has committed war crimes. You went out of your way to derail the thread and then tried to pretend that you weren't the one primarily involved.

I was merely correcting a mistake.

 

[Reuenthal]

What I am saying is that if you lend money to someone, expecting them to pay back is not a bad thing. No, investors should not be saved from bad decisions but at the same time, there is a responsibility to the ones who owe money to try to pay back the money they owe. Those people who lend money to someone don't deserve to be seen as the enemy because they want their money back. You can accuse them for choosing to lend their money to the wrong person but not for wanting that entity to try to pay them back.

That doesn't mean that when you lend money to people who won't be able to pay back you won't suffer for your bad decision. The point I am making is that the people (or in this case country) you have given money to should normally try to pay you back. Not doing so does have several negative consequences to them as well because the markets will have difficulty trusting and cooperating with irresponsible entities who don't pay back their debts and instead choose to default on it. And other ones. Fortunately or unfortunately the world has a market system and money, debt matters. It can't disappear because we want to without very severe consequences.

And if you have an alternative system in mind that is more evolved that our current world market economy and debt does not matter to it (because magic!) I and many else would like to hear it (note that just because you don't like the current situation it doesn't mean that your view of how the world should be is more evolved, you might just have no idea what you are talking about if you respond with money isn't real, debt isn't sacred, it might just means you have no idea how to create an economy system that works without them and you don't realize the consequences of what you are proposing but of course money isn't real!), but our system is so far the most evolved one we have come up by people much smarter than any of the individuals of this thread. And of course in our system countries like Greece can choose to default with the negative consequences that entails. For Greece. But also for the banks who have Greek bonds too. And that would also affect other European economies, as well as the fact that Greece exiting the eurozone can have negative consequences on other countries. Defaulting is serious business and debt is important too but defaulting at least for a few can be an option, (note an option for only a few with pretty high consequences) despite its negative consequences. In my view it would have more negative consequences for Greece, Europe and the world than Greece following through the IMF program in which Greece will pay back part of its debt without the negative consequences of leaving the eurozone and defaulting.

In the case of Greece, we have a country which had government expenses above its incomes and living above it's real economic capabilities among in other reasons, due to overusing loans. Austerity should have been followed by them long ago, and I guess my view in unpopular in this thread but not necessarily worldwide. European media will present Greece as a country that irresponsibly lived above its means, money it was lend to (and European banks are exposed to it) and now they don't want to pay back such money. But I guess austerity doesn't have to be an option, money isn't real, and countries should live above their means, accept loans, then don't follow the austerity necessary to have a more competitive economy (although austerity alone it isn't enough, having too much government expenses is a significant problem with debt and otherwise) to pay them back. I guess living beyond your means is a brilliant strategy that all countries should have followed and ignored debt or hoped for debt forgiveness when that happened. Other European countries with debt problems should also hope for debt forgiveness of course. I mean look at the current consequences for Greece it proves how wise this world view is. Also lets ignore the consequences to the ones who lend money if debt forgiveness is the way to go. I wonder where that would lead? (The answer is more Greece like countries, more uncompetitive economies who live beyond their means and because money does represent something real, such an uncompetitive economy can provide good living standards for some time but eventually debt will sink the ship. Either by a default, or by forcing severe austerity or by forcing the country to print lots of money and experience pretty high inflation which will make people poorer.

I think the lesson here is that the best way to go is for countries to not become Greece in the first place and sink under their debt and uncompetitive economy financed by loans. If they find themselves in that situation, becoming more competitive would be the way to go, but it would have consequences in whatever way they try to achieve it.

 

[hukasmokincaterpillar]

Lending money when it only causes further debt which causes further debt and further interest halts industrial and social progress.

Yep. It's a vicious circle, by design. As Schwarz put it...

...much of the world's elite understand exactly what they're doing: i.e., use the economic catastrophe they themselves created as a pretext to kill the welfare state they've despised for 65 years.

...somehow we've decided it's a great idea to stop feeding real food to real people and cease educating real children in order to demonstrate fealty to an abstract concept.

Falling for the "fallacy of misplaced concreteness" has concrete consequences.

Austerity and usury, or everything falls apart!

Well, no. Just the opposite in fact.

From John Ralston Saul's the Doubter's Companion (linked in previous post)

- There is no example of a nation becoming rich by paying its debts.

- There are dozens of examples of nations becoming rich by defaulting or renegotiating. This begins formally in the sixth century BC with Solon taking power in debt-crippled Athens. His organization of general default – “the shaking off of the burdens” – set the city-state on its road to democracy and prosperity. The Athens which is still remembered as the central inspiration of WESTERN CIVILIZATION was the direct product of a national default. One way or another most Western countries, including the United States, have done the same thing at some point. Most national defaults lead to sustained periods of prosperity.

- The one major difference between private and public debt is that the public sore cannot be based upon real collateral. This makes default a more natural solution to unviable situations.

- The question of national collateral was fully addressed in the eighteenth century when it became clear that an indebted people could not owe their national rights (their land and property) to a lender. The citizen’s natural and concrete rights took precedence over the lender’s abstract rights.

- One of the most peculiar and insidious aspects of twentieth-century CORPORATISM has been an attempt to reverse this precedence. The managerial imperative suggests that national debts can be indirectly collateralized in several ways. Governments can be forced to sell national property to pay debts (PRIVATIZATION). They can also be pressed to transfer ownership of national property to lenders, as has been done in the Third World.

- There is also the threat that defaulting nations will be treated as international pariahs. This is a strange argument since it doesn’t apply in the private sector. It is also an idle threat, as Mexico has demonstrated.

...

- Debts – both public and private – become unsustainable when the borrower’s cash flow no longer handily carries the interest payments. Once a national economy has lost that rate of cash flow, it is unlikely to get it back. The weight of the debt on the economy makes it impossible.

- A nation cannot make debts sustainable by cutting costs. Cuts may produce marginal savings, but savings are not cash flow. This is another example of the alchemist’s temptation.

Mrs. Thatcher spent a decade trying to slash the British national debt. She had the advantage of being able to use North Sea oil income for this purpose. The result was a damaged industrial sector, economic stagnation and endemic unemployment.

The payment of debts is a negative process which can only be a drain on investment and growth. The more successful major repayment programs are, the more the economy will be damaged.

 

[poisonelf]

Hey poisonelf, I just wanted to say that I, and many others here really appreciate all the good info and research your giving us about what is going on in Greece. I never learned this info anywhere in the mainstream news media, so I applaud the effort.

I have a few questions though. How wide-spread is popular resentment against the current government? Is it localized with just those facing poverty, or is it ubiquitous throughout the population? Even if people resent the government, is there still any popular sentiment that the reforms are a necessary evil to save the country?

For instance, if elections were held in Greece tomorrow, would parties supporting the austerity be thrown out? Is there a legitimate political force against the austerity that would win elections? Or are do they all basically go along with the status quo behind the scenes?

Lastly, do you think people are motivated enough to revolt and bring down the Greek government?

A lot of questions lol. But thanks again.

Thanks

Trying to answer your questions to the best of my knowledge:

1. Resentment against the current government is almost absolute. All it takes is a passing comment anywhere, in businesses, on the streets, and people start cursing, calling them all thieves and traitors, as far as calling for the death of their families (not making this up). There is no one who is untouched by what is happening (well, perhaps except the truly super rich, I don't know anyone to ask). For example I was talking with a friends who owns one of the biggest and best known pizza-chains here, and he was enraged, wondering why no one tries to kill a politician and instead people are killing themselves (that's a very widespread opinion you'll hear often).

But there are still the komatoskila (hardcore political-party followers) who have everything to gain by supporting them, and a group of people (that used to be huge but is thankfully much, much smaller now), blaming the evil Greek citizens (themselves) for everything, as the media kept telling us we should do for the past 2 years. If you think international media were bad about blaming Greeks for being lazy etc, you should see what suddenly happened here. These people still hate the politicians but mostly hate themselves and everyone around them, wallowing in depression and hopelessness.

2. How the reforms are viewed is a mixed bag. For example many people agree with the cuts in the public sector. I do too to an extend, thing is that this corrupt system takes every care to punish the lower layers. It's not those who should be fired that will be fired, the komatoskila receiving salaries from 2 positions at once, not going to work, stealing etc, but teachers, firemen, lower clerks, who had a family and tried to get by (even if still better than the private sector).
But at the same time there are measures such as insane taxation on property, to the point where people are selling off everything to not pay taxes, politicians actually claiming publicly that we shouldn't own property (Mosialos for the Greeks here), etc. Measures such as 22% reduction in private sector wages, and 32% for youths who are already at 50%+ unemployment, new taxes for businesses which are already ridiculously taxed, leading along with the whole recession to the closing down of hundreds of thousands of small businesses, etc.
No one supports these measures, and most people see them as a very specific plan to totally destroy Greek economy.

3. Elections are weird here. You have the komatoskila who are sure to vote for the same corrupt parties no matter what. You have many people who are stupid enough to believe that not voting will "show them". The anti-Memorandum front is fragmented, the left is of course fragmented, I have no idea what will happen.

Keep it up mate, looking forward to it. Everybody should be interested in Greece, the micro to our macro.

Do you read nakedcapitalism.com? I think you'll find a lot of salient commentary over there (if a bit wonky at times), in regards to Greece as well as the macro.

some recent posts-
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/02/austerity-policy-destroying-greek-society.html
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/02/wolf-richter-francois-hollande-versus-the-german-dictate.html
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/02/greece-is-out-of-time-again.html

I hadn't read these, thanks. I have lots of similar sources, many in Greek, but the thing is that when I'm writing in international forums such as these I try to use mainstream, accepted media as sources or else I know I'll be called "conspiracy theorist" and all that silliness that people who can't realize how the world works revert to.

Even here where almost each of my claims is backed by a bbc/cnn/nyt/guardian etc. article and some people still see my posts as being sensationalist or conspirational (not talking about the riots/videos issue, but about various points regarding the socioeconomic parts).

Stuff about defaulting.

You know, in your first post about defaulting, what you were describing is -exactly- what our banker-prime minister is saying, as well as the leaders of the political parties supporting him. Exactly. It's like the same guy writes their speeches.

"Yes, there is extreme unemployment now, poverty, people line up for food, but you wait and see what will happen if we dare and vote no to the Memorandum. If there is a default there will be no food, no energy, the skies will open and blood will rain down, Godzilla will appear"... you get the idea.

Funny thing is I was just reading that Argentina during its default set some negative records, regarding quality of life drop and GDP drop. Greece, with the so helpful "bailouts" and the Memorandum demands, is very, very close to reaching those numbers.

But hey, at least we're not "defaulting" (which would mean the banks losing their money, Greece makes more than enough to cover all other needs here).

No need to theorize, just look at how Argentina and Iceland are doing now who told the IMF and the banks to go fuck themselves.

 

[poisonelf]

I'm sorry for being late to respond. I wanted to answer various questions but I've reached that point again where I feel overwhelmed by what's happening.

Details about today's Eurogroup have surfaced, our banker-dictator has agreed to everything, naturally, and there will be a special 'escrow account' in which the loans to Greece will be put, and from there automatically transferred to pay interest rates of other loans. The fact that this whole thing is about saving banks is not even being sugar coated anymore.

Austerity measures will be intensified, insane taxation already implemented will be multiplied, while bankers and ministers of Greece and Europe are putting on a sad face saying "we understand the plight, it's unfair, the average person is not to blame" - but he must be trampled.

The Task Force is getting about 80 new members of "European Technocrats" who will be flown in Greece and put in ministries so they can order and oversee all dealings to make sure the utmost amount of money is squeezed out of Greece.

Meanwhile this past weekend, there were protests again, the largest being Sunday when 6-7,000 people protested outside the parliament, and riot police of course drove them away, using chemicals and beating downs, not even needing koukouloforoi to start shit up at this point. The media is reporting nothing and they simply have orders to clear out protests.

It was also "we are all Greek" weekend, with protests of support taking place throughout Europe. The largest where in Paris and Amsterdam, I have gathered some images I'll post later.

At this point it's becoming more apparent than ever that what is happening here is simply the beginning of a new era. Greece is too small and insignificant as a market to truly affect the world markets, being less than 2% of the Eurozone, it's just a testing ground.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJ7m-gXzQCs&feature=related

While I don't agree 100% with that video, that it was all a test to begin with, it most certainly is baffling at this point with illogical austerity being magnified, destroying the economy and the people for absolutely no gain for Greece to be seen.

As I've said before. This has nothing to do with some corrupt public officials here and tax-evasion (which were real, but not the issue), nor does it have much to do with unsustainable debt levels since there were (and are) countries in the Western world with worse numbers.

At this point it looks to be an experiment more than ever, it's the start of a brave new world that will soon travel to other countries.

Here's another video for anyone prefering a humorous, shorter version, from a French satire show (with English subs):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ooEq4mNrgg

 

[Tideas]

no, it's not

 

[poisonelf]

A BBC documentary (10 minutes) I just found.

It showcases nicely the true level of anger and shock of the people which I don't even dare truly convey here, as well as what the disgustingly used euphemism "austerity" truly means for Greece:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khMPZpeq5h4&feature=player_embedded

 

[Reuenthal]

You know, in your first post about defaulting, what you were describing is -exactly- what our banker-prime minister is saying, as well as the leaders of the political parties supporting him. Exactly. It's like the same guy writes their speeches.

"Yes, there is extreme unemployment now, poverty, people line up for food, but you wait and see what will happen if we dare and vote no to the Memorandum. If there is a default there will be no food, no energy, the skies will open and blood will rain down, Godzilla will appear"... you get the idea.

Funny thing is I was just reading that Argentina during its default set some negative records, regarding quality of life drop and GDP drop. Greece, with the so helpful "bailouts" and the Memorandum demands, is very, very close to reaching those numbers.

But hey, at least we're not "defaulting" (which would mean the banks losing their money, Greece makes more than enough to cover all other needs here).

No need to theorize, just look at how Argentina and Iceland are doing now who told the IMF and the banks to go fuck themselves.

Greece is not Argentina it has a less competitive and a more import oriented economy. And ten years have not passed since the IMF has been in Greece. Yourself brings the negative records that Argentina set with life quality drops.

Whether Greece defaults or not, it is going to suffer. Not seeing the negative consequences of the default it is easy to ignore them, and call it better, but they are there, a default entails much suffering for Greeks in the best case scenario. In that best case scenario eventually Greece becomes somewhat competitive even with the drop in living standards.

And the consequences of the default are going to be even worse than normally if your government is not able to handle the consequences properly and there is bad leadership. Point is, default is not the clear and better alternative that you think it is.

In terms of political parties, your left is too unpopular, fragmented and unwilling to rule or in the case of radical left and that other non communist party they are sort of opposing the IMF and Eurozone while also sort of being in favor of it, and if they knew their votes would certainly bring Greece out of eurozone because the other political parties who are in favor of staying in the eurozone did not have majority they might vote not as you expect. The Stalinist Communists are pretty much the only ones who would certainly vote against it and that is telling.

The others are taking advantage of unpopularity of IMF while not being fully committed in either way and what they are unreliable to always for certain vote against it.


Note that I kind of agree with you that your leaders, mostly Papandreou focused too much on taxation and the party parasites suffered less than normal people. Basically there was a failure of leadership while they were trying to implement the IMF program and IMF and Europe are not happy about that. That is what cost Papandreou his position, he was ineffectual and untrustworthy. I am not as informed on the new leader of Greece but what Greece certainly needs are good politicians and leaders, not sure if there is such a politician in Greece who is up to the task, unless you have any ideas or know such a person?

 

[Alpha-Bromega]

I am not as informed on the new leader of Greece but what Greece certainly needs are good politicians and leaders, not sure if there is such a politician in Greece who is up to the task, unless you have any ideas or know such a person?

the issue is that the Greeks do not get to choose their leadership at all!

 

[Reuenthal]

the issue is that the Greeks do not get to choose their leadership at all!

They voted for Papandreou who for multiple reasons he was a not a good enough leader but he was democratically elected and brought the IMF. Then this new guy got the power by Papandreou if I recall correctly until elections will come in some months and we will see who is elected then. Greece is a parliamentary democracy and the parliament seem to be deciding on things like the IMF packages, the parliament which is voted by Greeks and voted so far in favor of the IMF deals.

I don't fully blame the Greeks for having bad leaders, I kind of see them having to choose from a group of terrible choices where whoever is chosen he isn't good enough.

 

[Alpha-Bromega]

They voted for Papandreou who was not a good enough leader for multiple reasons but he was democratically elected and brought the IMF. Then this new guy got the power until elections will come and we will see who is elected then. Greece is a parliamentary democracy and the parliament seem to be deciding on things like the IMF packages, the parliament which is voted by Greeks and voted so far in favor of the IMF deals.

I don't fully blame the Greeks for having bad leaders, I kind of see them having to choose from a group of terrible choices where whoever is chosen he isn't good enough.

did Papandreou run on bringing in the famous IMF mafia? @poisonelf, for i am pretty curious. I don't see a democracy in these times ever allowing that to happen without massive protests, the IMF almost certainly means death to basic standards

 

[alstein]

did Papandreou run on bringing in the famous IMF mafia? @poisonelf, for i am pretty curious. I don't see a democracy in these times ever allowing that to happen without massive protests, the IMF almost certainly means death to basic standards

Both the IMF and default will mean death to basic standards. The question is which one would bring Greece back more quickly. That's a valid question without a clear answer.

 

[Reuenthal]

did Papandreou run on bringing in the famous IMF mafia? @poisonelf, for i am pretty curious. I don't see a democracy in these times ever allowing that to happen without massive protests, the IMF almost certainly means death to basic standards

No he did not. His competitor Karamanlis promised austerity while Papandreou promised that Greece still has money, and he won. Even that false promise and lie is one of the many reasons that he was a bad leader. I certainly consider politicians who lie in that way to deserve scorn. But unfortunately when a politician lies but is democratically elected, people are still democratically choosing their leaders. I do believe that austerity was necessary for Greece but he shouldn't have lied, politicians back then knew that finances were in such bad situation that austerity was necessary and that IMF was a possibility. That lie made it even harder for Greeks to support the IMF plan and harder for them to accept any kind of drop in living standards or in bonuses or retirement age, etc.

 

[poisonelf]

They voted for Papandreou who was not a good enough leader for multiple reasons but he was democratically elected and brought the IMF. Then this new guy got the power until elections will come and we will see who is elected then. Greece is a parliamentary democracy and the parliament seem to be deciding on things like the IMF packages, the parliament which is voted by Greeks and voted so far in favor of the IMF deals.

I don't fully blame the Greeks for having bad leaders, I kind of see them having to choose from a group of terrible choices where whoever is chosen he isn't good enough.

Did you see my posts on Papandreou? Do you consider political double-talk to be the same to what he did? The exact opposite than what he claimed as his line being, the exact opposite to what the people voted for and wanted him to do?
Go through that post and honestly answer me if you see any alternatives other than him being a) schizophrenic, or b) had a different plan all along. That's not the same as having a "terrible leader", that's total fraud.

According to the Greek Constitution, the government's actions must align to the "will of the people", or that government looses all legitimacy.

As for elections, when Papademos was installed here, elections were set for February. Then they said for March, and now they're already claiming that it's soon, for our own good of course, and the sooner should be June.

You're 100% right about the state of the political parties and leaders here in Greece in your previous post however. That's the biggest tragedy, there is no real alternative, and that's why everyone is talking about a violent resolution.

 

[Reuenthal]

Did you see my posts on Papandreou? Do you consider political double-talk to be the same to what he did? The exact opposite than what he claimed as his line being, the exact opposite to what the people voted for and wanted him to do?
Go through that post and honestly answer me if you see any alternatives other than him being a) schizophrenic, or b) had a different plan all along. That's not the same as having a "terrible leader", that's total fraud.

According to the Greek Constitution, the government's actions must align to the "will of the people", or that government looses all legitimacy.

As for elections, when Papademos was installed here, elections were set for February. Then they said for March, and now they're already claiming that it's soon, for our own good of course, and the sooner should be June.

You're 100% right about the state of the political parties and leaders here in Greece in your previous post however. That's the biggest tragedy, there is no real alternative, and that's why everyone is talking about a violent resolution.

A violent revolution is not a real alternative either probably the worst possible choice. Greece should try to preserve its democratic institutions and a Greece that can't be ruled at all would be in a very bad position to deal with such severe problems.

I don't know about details but surely courts should be used to decide whether the Prime Minister has done something that makes him illegal, else if he is violently removed that doesn't seem democratic.

Fortunately bad leaders have term limits. I don't really like how he put another in his place after he quit (though that was before his term was up) but in the next election you should vote for a different candidate.

If you are certain that there will be no term limits, which I don't see happening at all then a revolution to bring democracy might be necessary but as I said, you don't know that at all. I find it highly unlikely that term limits of Papademos will be indefinitely increased and that there won't be an election for prime minister. Protesting in favor of an election and accusing the leaders for delaying the election might not be a bad idea though but violent revolution is another issue.

 

[Alpha-Bromega]

A violent revolution is not a real alternative either probably the worst possible choice. Greece should try to preserve its democratic institutions and a Greece that can't be ruled at all would be in a very bad position to deal with such severe problems.

I don't know about details but surely courts should be used to decide whether the Prime Minister has done something that makes him illegal, else if he is violently removed that doesn't seem democratic.

Fortunately bad leaders have term limits. I don't really like how he put another in his place after he quit (though that was before his term was up) but in the next election you should vote for a different candidate.

If you are certain that there will be no term limits, which I don't see happening then a revolution to bring democracy might be necessary but as I said, you don't know that at all. I find it highly unlikely that term limits of Papademos will be indefinitely increased and that there won't be an election for prime minister.

how many more times do they need to postpone the elections before we can say "ok, nope that's not a democracy at all" ?

 

[Reuenthal]

how many more times do they need to postpone the elections before we can say "ok, nope that's not a democracy at all" ?

I don't know. All I am saying is that making a violent revolution will likely change Greece from a democracy to something else. I don't have all the answers for very difficult situations, I can just point my finger on some bad choices and call them bad choices without taking the side of Papademos.

Note that in Greece a stalinist communist party is in the parliament and it is somewhat popular. It is expected from it to be in favor of a violent revolution to get rid of democracy. There are also a lot of pissed people, even without the communist party just a spontaneous violent revolution is not really the best recipe for democracy.

I think that Greeks should not wait, even now they should be protesting in favor of elections so I don't think they should wait to react. As for violent revolution I don't know, I don't think it is a good choice.

 

[poisonelf]

A violent resolution is obviously nothing fun. Not only for the people involved, but also for the consequences it will have on the entire society. It's not a first choice unless you're a hardcore anarchist.
I wish a true leader would magically emerge. But at this point no such thing exists, not even close. It's all the same political parties, or derivatives of those same parties, that built this culture of corruption, along with some radical, far-left and far-right parties.

There are already quite a few lawsuits against Papandreou pending. The most important one is the one about him, and Papakonstantinou, the financial minister during the IMF run, fudging our deficit so as to make it seem necessary.

There are others, about national treason and about violating human rights through his policies and the unprecedented police brutality during June.

Thing is you can't imagine the corruption that exists here. The only ones allowed to judge ministers and parliament members, are ministers and parliament members before this is allowed to move on to real courts, where, of course, the judges are komatoskila. And even then, there are special laws absolving ministers of almost any crime.

 

[_Xenon_]

In the Eurozone, Greece has to pay its debts with a currency over which it has no control (and therefore has to borrow). With its own currency, its debt problem disappears. The IMF and Eurozone aren't stopping Greece from default. They are bailing out investors who made (apparently) poor investment decisions.



Greece would not be using Euros if it left the Eurozone. It would be using its own money, and hence would have an unlimited supply of it. It would not need to borrow anything.

Which country are we talking again? Greece or USA?

If you think that 340B (Euro) debt can simply be converted into drachma and be paid with fresh printed paper bills next week you are out of your mind.

Currency sovereignty is not something you can just claim it, you have to earn it by building a strong industry and strong national defense. It's the credit of a country's economy which Greece doesn't have. Nobody will sign the agreement to allow them convert that huge amount of debt into their own currency and Greece can't do it on its own either because doing that means huge sanctions or even war. They can leave Eurozone and build their country from scratch but 340B Euro worth of debt isn't gonna disappear over night.

 

[_Xenon_]

Funny thing is I was just reading that Argentina during its default set some negative records, regarding quality of life drop and GDP drop. Greece, with the so helpful "bailouts" and the Memorandum demands, is very, very close to reaching those numbers.

But hey, at least we're not "defaulting" (which would mean the banks losing their money, Greece makes more than enough to cover all other needs here).

No need to theorize, just look at how Argentina and Iceland are doing now who told the IMF and the banks to go fuck themselves.

You are comparing oranges to apples. Just because they are all round doesn't mean they are the same. There are 2 types of countries in this world: those who can afford a default and those who can't. Argentina has a better economy structure than you. Their exports were on par with their imports even before defaulting and it can only get better after getting rid off IMF. How about Greece? I don't buy the crap that "Greeks are lazy" or something but the fact is your country is running huge trade deficit regardless how you spin it. Your country simply doesn't know how to make money. Two of the industries you mentioned simply cannot be marked as "solid": tourism and banking (at this time you still believe in banking lol?) and I believe you have sold part of your shipbuilding business to somebody else. What do you have left?

Let's be honest. After default, how much will one drachma worth? A man who makes 3000 Euro a month will have to make 3000 drachma a month ... and meanwhile a man in Zimbabwe makes a billion ZWD a month. Dude must be super rich.

 

[poisonelf]

Which country are we talking again? Greece or USA?

If you think that 340B (Euro) debt can simply be converted into drachma and be paid with fresh printed paper bills next week you are out of your mind.

Currency sovereignty is not something you can just claim it, you have to earn it by building a strong industry and strong national defense. It's the credit of a country's economy which Greece doesn't have. Nobody will sign the agreement to allow them convert that huge amount of debt into their own currency and Greece can't do it on its own either because doing that means huge sanctions or even war. They can leave Eurozone and build their country from scratch but 340B Euro worth of debt isn't gonna disappear over night.

Actually, you're only half right.

Up to 2 years ago, when this whole 'crisis' started, all Greek debt was in bonds to private institutions, governed by Greek law, meaning that Greece could revert to drachma or other currency, and debt would be paid under that currency value.
Not to mention that Greece could default under laws of odious debt (like the US did with the Iraq debt) or invoking an inability to sustain humane levels for the population, which is perfectly legal and there is precedence in international law.

However, what has been going on these past 2 years is the exchange of all those bonds with loans from the IMF and the EU, governed under English law, so that Greece does not have the above options, and the banks and speculators' profits are saved while the population of Greece suffers for it and is thrown decades back.

Right now the process is half complete, but with the PSI that Papademos is handling for the sake of the banks, it will be complete and then Greece will be left to default against its citizens, while the debt to the IMF, banks and the ECB will be secured under Euro values, while English law will allow for the confiscation of Greek public and private assets through any means.

All these signings of deals akin to deals of a country surrendering after losing a war are of course unconstitutional, and this is why Merkel and Sarkozy almost had a stroke when Papandreou talked of a referendum, why they're asking for signed statements from all political parties that they will adhere to the Memorandum after elections, and of course why an election date is being pushed back.

 

[Vagabundo]

You guys really need a reform party. It is frustrating watching what is happening and knowing that people will still voted for the idiots who let this happen in the next election - whanever it actually does happen.

A reform party with a very clear and simple mandate could work, but only if it managed to gather support from left to right.

There are too many vested interests for that to happen. Unless things get really really bad. Then we might see some true political change and that is what is really needed in Greece IMO. Reform.

 

[empty vessel]

Which country are we talking again? Greece or USA?

If you think that 340B (Euro) debt can simply be converted into drachma and be paid with fresh printed paper bills next week you are out of your mind.

Currency sovereignty is not something you can just claim it, you have to earn it by building a strong industry and strong national defense. It's the credit of a country's economy which Greece doesn't have. Nobody will sign the agreement to allow them convert that huge amount of debt into their own currency and Greece can't do it on its own either because doing that means huge sanctions or even war. They can leave Eurozone and build their country from scratch but 340B Euro worth of debt isn't gonna disappear over night.

Of course Greece can do it, it has all the power in this situation. Currency sovereignty isn't earned. It's dictated by fiat and backed up by military force (or other law enforcement mechanisms). Investors will be able to take whatever offer Greece makes or leave it. They will be forced to take it, because, in the end, Greece has its own military and is more powerful. Of course, this scenario depends on Greece exerting its power. It essentially boils down to might makes right. Mind you, that's the empirical reality of it, and does not address the justice of it. Those are two distinct inquiries. Here, I think it is quite just for Greece, on utilitarian grounds alone, to act detrimentally to a small group of powerful (and by and large corrupt) investors in order to stave off deep and sharp declines in the standard of living of the Greek people and a destruction of its economy. It's a no brainer.

The only scenario that could prevent this occurring, should the Greek government go this route, is if Greece's creditors get another government to do its bidding and use force against Greece, i.e., if Germany invades and occupies Greece. If you think that is a realistic possibility, I would advise you to start taking action to oppose a German invasion of Greece now, as such an act would be a war crime that all decent humans would oppose. Luckily, I don't think that's remotely a realistic possibility.

It's worth noting that there are indications that Germany wants Greece out.

 

[poisonelf]

More to the OP's theme, a new video I found from the February 12 events:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Ot_B9S0IPD8

Motorcycle police riding down a protester and beating him, amid endless firings of chemicals and flash bangs grenades.
I have no idea what he might have done, but he's not wearing a hood so personally I won't believe that he threw molotov bombs.

They start beating on him and then a crowd gathers and starts throwing things at them, driving them away.

The main reason I'm posting this is not to determine who started what, I don't know about that specific protester (though by seeing how events unfold with riot police here, you may draw your own conclusions).

Thing is that at this point riot police are viewed all the more like a private army of the traitors selling off our country. If you could read the youtube comments or understand what people are shouting you'd understand, it's all about "kill the bastards (police)" when a year before half of them would defend the police.

I'm afraid at the next large protest it will not be only the koukouloforoi throwing molotovs and flares, things will be really brutal.

 

[Neo C.]

Just read an article in the newspaper about the middle class in Greece and their lost of existence.

I understand the harsh reality, but I don't get why graduates don't emigrate instead of living very poorly in Greece. I mean my family has a long history of emigration: Grandparents went from China to Vietnam, parents went from Vietnam to Switzerland, and lots of relatives are spread throughout the world. Sure, the time was different, but there are educated Greeks who live on the street - people with knowledge and language skills! Why don't they emigrate? I don't say it's easy, but the possibility is there.

 

[poisonelf]

Financial Times article:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/16f04ffa-5963-11e1-9153-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1mwN7hNWo

When Wolfgang Schäuble proposed that Greece should postpone its elections as a condition for further help, I knew that the game would soon be up. We are at the point where success is no longer compatible with democracy. The German finance minister wants to prevent a “wrong” democratic choice. Similar to this is the suggestion to let the elections go ahead, but to have a grand coalition irrespective of the outcome. The eurozone wants to impose its choice of government on Greece – the eurozone’s first colony.

The German strategy seems to be to make life so unbearable that the Greeks themselves will want to leave the eurozone. Ms Merkel certainly does not want to be caught with a smoking gun in her hand. It is a strategy of assisted suicide, and one that is extremely dangerous and irresponsible.

 

[AAequal]

This is great thread and has been great source for new information for me. I also found out about Bill Mitchell due to this thread. Poisonelf are you going to make that another megathread you were talking about some pages ago?

 

[poisonelf]

This is great thread and has been great source for new information for me. I also found out about Bill Mitchell due to this thread. Poisonself are you going to make that another megathread you were talking about some pages ago?

I wanted to, one that starts from the beginning of the issue, including dispelling the fairy tales of 'lazy, cheating' Greeks and the issues of debt and the IMF-TROIKA scam.

Thing is that at this point events are moving so fast that I don't even know if it's worth it. Things are getting more and more illogical and ridiculous, forcing Greece to colony status, placing commissars here, forcing extreme austerity that leads to the destruction of the economy instead of 'fixing' it.

Things are insane and I have no idea what they hope to accomplish exactly. Bank profits for sure, as well as grabbing public assets for a fraction of their value, but it's too insane and volatile at this point.

 

[PJV3]

Why are the Dutch demanding a permanent presence of the Troika in Athens? This seems to be nothing more than a deliberate attempt to humiliate the Greek nation.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/feb/20/debt-crisis-euro

 

[AAequal]

Will be interesting to see how big the collateral for Finland is. Has the Greek banks giving the collateral been named yet?

 

[Alpha-Bromega]

Just read an article in the newspaper about the middle class in Greece and their lost of existence.

I understand the harsh reality, but I don't get why graduates don't emigrate instead of living very poorly in Greece. I mean my family has a long history of emigration: Grandparents went from China to Vietnam, parents went from Vietnam to Switzerland, and lots of relatives are spread throughout the world. Sure, the time was different, but there are educated Greeks who live on the street - people with knowledge and language skills! Why don't they emigrate? I don't say it's easy, but the possibility is there.

c'mon man, that is not the answer at all. in fact that's the VERY issue at hand, is that life is so miserable and worthless now in Greece that living in Hellas isn't an answer

 

[Crazymoogle]

poisonelf, has the Georgiou case been followed up on at all? (ie: in the papers)

 

[LJ11]

You are comparing oranges to apples. Just because they are all round doesn't mean they are the same. There are 2 types of countries in this world: those who can afford a default and those who can't. Argentina has a better economy structure than you. Their exports were on par with their imports even before defaulting and it can only get better after getting rid off IMF. How about Greece? I don't buy the crap that "Greeks are lazy" or something but the fact is your country is running huge trade deficit regardless how you spin it. Your country simply doesn't know how to make money. Two of the industries you mentioned simply cannot be marked as "solid": tourism and banking (at this time you still believe in banking lol?) and I believe you have sold part of your shipbuilding business to somebody else. What do you have left?

Let's be honest. After default, how much will one drachma worth? A man who makes 3000 Euro a month will have to make 3000 drachma a month ... and meanwhile a man in Zimbabwe makes a billion ZWD a month. Dude must be super rich.

False, in the run up to default, Argentina ran current account deficits/trade deficits upwards of 5% of GDP. In what world is that small?

How do you quickly remove that kind of imbalance? By removing capital flows, which is why the gap started to narrow in Argentina as they got closer and closer to default. "Investors" started to flee, when they pulled their money the current account deficit started to drop. Why isn't this happening in Greece? Simple. If you run a trade deficit you have to borrow, when your credit starts to dry up, or investors get skittish, your deficit starts to reverse.

In fact most countries with sovereign debt issues have current account deficits, though trade deficits themselves are not really an indicator of being in trouble.

Greece and Argentina aren't similar, both got into trouble in different ways.

 

[gcubed]

You guys really need a reform party. It is frustrating watching what is happening and knowing that people will still voted for the idiots who let this happen in the next election - whanever it actually does happen.

A reform party with a very clear and simple mandate could work, but only if it managed to gather support from left to right.

There are too many vested interests for that to happen. Unless things get really really bad. Then we might see some true political change and that is what is really needed in Greece IMO. Reform.

that would require the Greek people to actually be allowed to vote

 

[Neo C.]

c'mon man, that is not the answer at all. in fact that's the VERY issue at hand, is that life is so miserable and worthless now in Greece that living in Hellas isn't an answer

Answer to what? I didn't give an answer to the Greece debacle, I'm just shocked that graduates aren't as mobile as I thought. And since Greece is part of EU, searching for jobs in the whole EU is possible.