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[dmr87]

Between watching AngryJoe's review, and from reading and watching stuff pre-release, the question is not if, but when it goes F2P.

I'd say the typical MMO launch cycle is people stay the first included month, they get to the end game and realize that there is nothing to do because the game is front loaded with content. After the first free month people start to drop off which in the end will result in either going F2P or shutting down, and in this case I don't see it shutting down, it's too big for that.

When the F2P event happens they will get a resurgence of people and more content will be available from the work they put in between launch and up to the F2P date, and in the end they will have a steady flow of people playing the game.

So what do you think? I'll go with 6-9 months. According to Wikipedia it took Star Wars: The Old Republic 11 months to go F2P and I think this is going to tank faster.

• 
  3-6 months
• 6-9 months
• 9-12 months
• 12-24 months
• 24+ months

 

[K.Sabot]

A bit under a year would be my realistic estimate considering the amount of money they get out of players by default when they buy the game.

 

[Goon Boon]

I'll go with 6 to 9.

Wildstar should be able to break a year though.

 

[Maintenance]

9-12 months.

 

[TeRey09]

6-12 months.

 

[Nirolak]

Well, they've yet to brag about any subscriber or sales numbers unless I missed something, but f2p conversions take a while, so I'll say 9-12 months from the options available.

At least, I feel it will be announced by then even if they need a month or two more to get it out the door.

 

[Card Boy]

That Angry Joe review opened my eyes. I say within 12 months.

 

[SJRB]

Let's not forget the console versions still have to launch, adding a completely new [and potentially huge] userbase. There are way less MMOs available on consoles, which might boost subscriber numbers.

 

[GavinUK86]

I actually hope it goes F2P pretty quickly because I really enjoyed playing all the beta weekends but I just can't afford to pay a sub. But my estimate is about 12 months, maybe more. I know they have a lot of DLC/expansions planned and I don't think they'll bin the sub before they release them. Get them out the door then sometime after it'll go F2P.

 

[RPGCrazied]

I'm going to say by end of the year, or a total of one year max.

 

[Ghost23]

I'll go with 6 to 9.

Wildstar should be able to break a year though.

I bet Wildstar does not last as long as ESO (if you don't include the two month head start it has).

 

[Artorias]

I'm going to guess fairly quickly, but not quick enough to matter. It will be dead months before it goes F2P.

 

[Aces&Eights]

Let's not forget the console versions still have to launch, adding a completely new [and potentially huge] userbase. There are way less MMOs available on consoles, which might boost subscriber numbers.

True, but with Diablo 3 coming out on the new consoles and the plethora of mediocre reviews coming in on ESO, I'm not seeing the current model sustainable. However, they are making out like bandits at upfront costs accrued from end users just to log in.

 

[Grimsen]

I'd say 12-15 months after the console release.

The base game will gradually drop in price, and then f2p will hit.

 

[Rodney McKay]

I'd actually be OK if they switched it to be a Guild Wars type payment method. Pay for the base game and then play it as much as you want without monthly charges.

I just don't want to see the game filled to the gills with F2P stuff, but then again I did hear good things about LOTRO so maybe it's possible for them to do it well.

 

[10101]

I'm going to say be end of the year, or a total of one year max.

Agreed, I think it will be by Xmas or early next year at the very latest. Can't see it lasting much more than that really.

 

[Vanillalite]

Xmas unless it takes them a hair longer to retrofit.

 

[Zomba13]

Weird that so many MMOs go F2P quickly and people actually count down to it while FFXI still has a sub and has been going longer than WoW.

 

[BigDug13]

True, but with Diablo 3 coming out on the new consoles and the plethora of mediocre reviews coming in on ESO, I'm not seeing the current model sustainable. However, they are making out like bandits at upfront costs accrued from end users just to log in.

Hopefully save game hacks take awhile so the Diablo community can thrive for a bit.

 

[StalkerUKCG]

Let's not forget the console versions still have to launch, adding a completely new [and potentially huge] userbase. There are way less MMOs available on consoles, which might boost subscriber numbers.

Console users are not going to pay £15 or w.e this is on top of PS+/XBL prices to play shitty skyrim fetch quest edition

 

[N7Commander95]

I hope it sustains itself for a while, the game is fantastic and I hope it makes money.

 

[RoKKeR]

I don't think it will be completely F2P, but just end up more like Guild Wars 2.

I'd be ok with that. I'm still interested in picking it up on consoles because I've never really dug into an MMO before, but the price of entry plus some of the stuff Angry Joe mentioned today has really put me off it.

 

[Kazerei]

This holiday season (November-December). I'm just guessing here, but even if ESO cost less than SWTOR, it seems to be doing worse and I don't think Bethesda can hold out as long as EA did.

 

[Camp Lo]

6-12 months.

 

[dmr87]

Let's not forget the console versions still have to launch, adding a completely new [and potentially huge] userbase. There are way less MMOs available on consoles, which might boost subscriber numbers.

I'll admit I didn't think about the console versions but in the end I don't think it will matter.

 

[Ghost23]

Console users are not going to pay £15 or w.e this is on top of PS+/XBL prices to play shitty skyrim fetch quest edition

You don't need PS+ to play it.

 

[Tatsumaki Senpuukyaku!]

Its weird that all MMOs are expected to go F2P now

 

[The_Monk]

I will give it a go and buy it on the PS4 as soon it goes F2P. I have a friend who would love to try this and he likes some light/casual gaming without too much difficulty so I would try this with him.

I expect the monthly subscription model for this game to be around at least 12 month before they decide to make it F2P. If it never goes, no harm done here.

 

[LDAF]

I think 6-9 is a realistic estimate.

 

[ComputerBlue]

Let's not forget the console versions still have to launch, adding a completely new [and potentially huge] userbase. There are way less MMOs available on consoles, which might boost subscriber numbers.

This will definitely help but I don't think it'l last very long, with games like Planetside 2 and Destiny coming out sometime this year I think the numbers will start to drop off pretty quickly come summers end, just before the fall rush of games start to hit. But who knows, Those are shooters and as far as MMO's go, I can't think of anything off the top of my head that will be similar on consoles.

 

[Yondy604]

Its weird that all MMOs are expected to go F2P now

ffxiv says sup

 

[mattiewheels]

Why so certain about it, when you've got something like FFXIV that I can't see going free... Is that one doing much better?

 

[ricardokenshin]

Weird that so many MMOs go F2P quickly and people actually count down to it while FFXI still has a sub and has been going longer than WoW.

SE (ffxi and ffxiv) and blizzard (wow) funded their games though, this one has investors who would want their money back (dunno if this is true but it's the reason most go f2p)

at least thats the reasoning yoshi (ffxiv) gives

 

[WonkyPanda]

Well, they've yet to brag about any subscriber or sales numbers unless I missed something, but f2p conversions take a while, so I'll say 9-12 months from the options available.

At least, I feel it will be announced by then even if they need a month or two more to get it out the door.

SWTOR had box sales of about 1.2m. I don't think you can really gauge an MMOs subscription longevity based on sales alone.

 

[Panda Rin]

12 months. book it. even at that point, I don't think I would touch it..

 

[ChiliManiac]

Really?
The game just came out, the fanbase(me included) is loving it and for those who play it really enjoy it. They also just announced their first content patch 3 days after the game launched. I don't see this game going F2P. It's doing pretty well.

Angry Joe isn't exactly the person I would base your impressions off of...it's like watching Bill O'Reilly or Stephen Colbert review a product and making up your mind lol.

 

[reptilescorpio]

9-12 months, yeah.

 

[Arkanius]

I give it one year
Meanwhile, Guild Wars 2 and WoW keep proving how to do it right

 

[licktheenvelope]

November. I can't see it not taking a tremendous sub hits by September, October, November.

If it somehow lasts until next year it will quickly go F2P before Everquest Next launches.

 

[Calabi]

I vote never, they'll burn it down down before they allow it to go free to play.

 

[BadTaste]

Really?
The game just came out, the fanbase(me included) is loving it and for those who play it really enjoy it. They also just announced their first content patch 3 days after the game launched.
I don't see this game going F2P. It's doing pretty well.

Oh yeah, 250k players playing worldwide, it's doing excellent.

 

[jacob armitage]

Why so certain about it, when you've got something like FFXIV that I can't see going free... Is that one doing much better?

I think they said 1.8 million subs with 500k daily log ins pre-ps4 launch.

 

[Tatsumaki Senpuukyaku!]

ffxiv says sup

Eh, a lot of people definitely expected it to go F2P after its original launch. It recovered nicely though.

 

[dimb]

There is nothing in place to transition the game into a free to play model. It will take a long time.

 

[Card Boy]

I vote never, they'll burn it down down before they allow it to go free to play.

I thought EA was going to do this with The Old Republic.

 

[licktheenvelope]

Really?
The game just came out, the fanbase(me included) is loving it and for those who play it really enjoy it. They also just announced their first content patch 3 days after the game launched. I don't see this game going F2P. It's doing pretty well.

Angry Joe isn't exactly the person I would base your impressions off of...it's like watching Bill O'Reilly or Stephen Colbert review a product and making up your mind lol.

Not sure what numbers indicate that it is 'doing pretty well'.

Only hinted info i've seen is that TES: Online had 150,000 pre-orders, about 1/4th of SWTOR and GW2 which were about 600,000 each.

 

[Killer]

This still coming to consoles? I feel bad for uninformed customers.

I give it 12 months.

 

[Grief.exe]

Really?
The game just came out, the fanbase(me included) is loving it and for those who play it really enjoy it.

From an outside observer, I've been mainly hearing disain from those who have purchased the product.

There is no harm in you enjoying the game, but you seem to be outside the general consensus at the moment.

There is also a difference between enjoying a product and objectively looking at its flaws.

Oh yeah, 250k players playing worldwide, it's doing excellent.

Are those concurrent numbers?

 

[Tatsumaki Senpuukyaku!]

How much did this game cost to make? It seems really expensive.

 

[Jomjom]

Why so certain about it, when you've got something like FFXIV that I can't see going free... Is that one doing much better?

FFXIV: ARR is dong much better than ESO. Went to a couple of Best Buys today and they had ESO displays right up at the front with copies of the game. It looked like no copies had been bought. This game is going F2P for sure unless something miraculous happens. I can't see this doing even as well as SWTOR.

There is nothing in place to transition the game into a free to play model. It will take a long time.

This was also true of SWTOR at launch. The transition to F2P is old hat now. Don't believe pub/dev PR statements, it's not that difficult to transition.

Here's a basic blueprint:

1) Separate out the convenience aspects of the game and put them behind a paywall
2) Put a cap on inventory space / currency wallet
3) Place raids, PVP, etc. behind an instance and limit what F2P people can access per week
4) Put lots of fanservice fluff items out (extremely easy and cost-effective to put a couple of guys on making some gear) and sell them using Random Number Generator lockboxes.

Boom. F2P transition.