Sammy Samusu
Member
LOL What the hell.
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Japanese Weekly Sales: Week 26, 2012 (Jun 25 - Jul 01)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
The "push hardware" part is going to be the most interesting factor to watch. Past NSMB games haven't been launch titles but they have had an undeniable impact on hardware sales. Its odd for me to think that people will rush to buy a new home console just because there is a new mario game out but then again I have no reason to doubt it.
NSMB2 is probably the better title to watch to judge the health and popularity of the NSMB franchise but it also has its own complications, mainly being available digitally day and date of its retail launch.
grimshawish
Banned
Its not so much 'I need this console' as - 'well, now I'll get the console' - its the pushing over mark.
Wii compatibility will help A LOT. Especially if the WiiU is well priced, it'll almost be a revision (hopefully it is well priced, I think Nintendo know its function is to help both hardware sales and software sales - the 3DS shook them a bit - with it hitting profits they might decide to take a hit on WiiU at launch (although unlike 3DS they have a big first party presence - allowing them to make money off the software sales of NSMBU and back up any loss on the system (if they have sense, they might be tempted to make 'something' on hardware)).
BishopLamont
Banned
NSMB2 will launch lower than its predecessor also because DS was at 8.5M, while 3DS is only at 6.5M. It shouldn't matter too much, but it should make a small impact on its short-term legs.
Mario: The epitome of hardcore and mainstream.
metalslimer
Member
I still think NSMB2 and NSMBU launching within months of each other is a huge mistake, but I guess that's the consequence of the time of launching Wii U and having to pick the 3DS sales up worldwide. I think NSMBU is the more interesting one to launch because it'll show us how powerful the series is in selling systems outright. The Wii and DS both had a ton of other games to sell those systems along with NSMB.
I think another interesting thing to watch will be 3D Land's sales.
Launched right into the beginning of the holiday season. It was so funny watching people expecting the series to not do well because NSMB only being a crazy seller on DS for some reason. There were Monster Hunter Tri to 2G comparisons and all. I remember people were getting called out for think NSMB would outsell FF13 in the long run let alone that very holiday season.
I think another interesting thing to watch will be 3D Land's sales.
Launched right into the beginning of the holiday season. It was so funny watching people expecting the series to not do well because NSMB only being a crazy seller on DS for some reason. There were Monster Hunter Tri to 2G comparisons and all. I remember people were getting called out for think NSMB would outsell FF13 in the long run let alone that very holiday season.
BishopLamont
Banned
3DLand will get a boost and will sell alongside NSMB2/U. Its legs will improve rather than decrease imo.
Yeah its not like Mario didn't originate on home consoles or anything. Some people just don't think.
well capcom is not missing around with RE6 in Japan, the TV ads already started
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1FL7eupPmc&
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1FL7eupPmc&
Hero of Legend
Member
Not sure if answered, but did we get 1st day numbers and/or shipment totals for at least EO4? If not then I'll just wait for Wednesday. 
distantmantra
Member
They've been running in the US since early June, not that surprising.
Not sure if answered, but did we get 1st day numbers and/or shipment totals for at least EO4? If not then I'll just wait for Wednesday.
Only a sales % rate so far, so no 1st day or shipment total from what I've seen unfortunately.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
RE6 is gonna be huge. It will probably have the biggest opening week of any console game this year.
Mocca-Bear
Neo Member
The Yodobashi at Umeda also had a huge display last weekend. Biggest I've seen so far TBH, it took up three quarters of their advertisement corner...
metalslimer
Member
Not sure if answered, but did we get 1st day numbers and/or shipment totals for at least EO4? If not then I'll just wait for Wednesday.
When was the last time we got 1st day numbers for anything? The only time we even seem to get first week numbers early anymore is when it is a major game release or hardware release.
walking fiend
Member
michaelius
Banned
Reminds me how people were betting how soon Wii will overtake PS2 in 2008
Or how all jRPGs were supposed to be annouced only for Wii after DQ X was rewelead to be a Wii game
While realistically it depends on how soon PS4 is released at how much legs PS3 gets after that.
PS3 LTD will be close to the Wii one in Japan, but I don't think it will catch it up, unless the Slim + Price cut will be able to constantly boost PS3 weekly sales (because they are obviously way higher than Wii weekly sales but they are not so hot, in general terms)
RE6 in my opinion will break records for the brand, at least in Japan
Mario 2 will perform less than NewMario and MarioWii in my opinion, but it will be probably still very strong (unlike Brain Training of the Devil)
RE6 in my opinion will break records for the brand, at least in Japan
Mario 2 will perform less than NewMario and MarioWii in my opinion, but it will be probably still very strong (unlike Brain Training of the Devil)
It should finish the year somewhere around 9M, but I wouldn't say it will be easy or certain. A price cut could potentially help make it easier, but the PS3 is currently tracking about the same as last year in Japan, and worldwide forecasts from Sony are for lower sales this fiscal year - so there doesn't seem to be a big game-changer on the horizon this year. At least not from Sony's expectations.
Ha ha - what?
RE2 (PS1) was 1.4M first week and 2.15M LTD in Japan. RE6 (PS3) won't come close to either number.
(PS1 version was 2.45M LTD with Dual Shock Edition)
And RE3 (PS1) was 1M first week and 1.4M LTD in Japan. RE6 (PS3) won't touch those numbers either.
And RE (PS1) was 1.2M LTD, which RE6 (PS3) also won't touch.
(PS1 version was 1.8M LTD with Dir. Cut + Dual Shock).
That's not to knock RE6, because it will put up good numbers, but it won't come anywhere near the highs of the franchise. I would actually expect RE6 (PS3+360) to come in somewhere in the ballpark of RE4 and RE5, which both came in right around 1M each with all versions counted.
electroplankton
Banned
Reminds me how people were betting how soon Wii will overtake PS2 in 2008
They were... Wrong? They lacked long-term view. Also: we're almost at the end of the generation. PS3 is selling like shit today (being the home console leader, its weekly average is ridiculous), and it's not going to sell until 2016 (10 years life-cycle, yeah).
Or how all jRPGs were supposed to be annouced only for Wii after DQ X was rewelead to be a Wii game
Who said this? When Dragon Quest X was announced, Wii already had a quite bad situation on the third party side. Maybe were you talking about Dragon Quest IX? Because DS had a lot of jRPG.
Next year, PS3 might sell a 5-6k on average. Legs?
You're right, it will not set new records. But I think it will end with an higher LTD compared to 4 and 5. At least, I think that PS360 single SKUs will reach the 1mil mark without any additional re-release (gold, the best and so on...)
electroplankton
Banned
It won't be difficult to sell more than RE4 GC+PS2...
If Nintendo doesn't kill their 3D Land bundles then it will keep charting for a while longer
Yeah, it should probably be able to beat the original GC+PS2 number, which was just under 700k (although the original GC+PS2+Wii number is over 800k) - I'm not sure that I would go far enough to say that it will be 'easy' though. The 360 version of RE6 won't do much more than 100k, which leaves 600k for the PS3 version. Probable - but it wouldn't be the most shocking thing in the world if it fell a little short of that target (or if the 360 version falls short of 100k).
But RE6 total (all versions combined) reaching the 1M total figure (all versions combined) from RE4 (actually near 1.2M with Wii version included) and RE5 could actually be in question, because by the time a Best version would be released, the PS4 may very well already be about to launch, which could cut out any legs for any re-releases of RE6. We'll have to see how much interest builds in RE6 as we get closer to the release date.
Of course, an eventual WiiU version (if it happens) of RE6 should be able to help push the combined total above 1M.
i think the biggest thing nsmb2 has going for it is the 3ds xl launch. the ds lite was already out in japan for a couple of months when nsmb hit, and both helped each other out. but now people will be getting the new system and the new game at the same time. it's probably getting a boost it otherwise wouldn't have.
nsmbu should do well as long as the wii u itself isn't a huge fucking flop. i think by the end of the gen (or the wii u's life), nsmbu will be the top-selling game on the machine regardless (unless nintendoland's packaged with the machine).
nsmbu should do well as long as the wii u itself isn't a huge fucking flop. i think by the end of the gen (or the wii u's life), nsmbu will be the top-selling game on the machine regardless (unless nintendoland's packaged with the machine).
electroplankton
Banned
It also depends how strong 3DS XL will be; imo, people won't see this new version as a 3DS substitute but more as a complement for people who prefer playing at home or older people who want bigger screens. DS Lite was released to substitute a console which was on fire for a few months.
As for Mario on Wii U, being a launch title (and being Mario) will help it to sell along with the platform for a very long time.
I agree, but I'm still a bit unsure about the XL appeal. Also the almost standard performance of the 3ds after the announcment could be a signal of Japan disinterest in this version.
About NewMarioU I agree with you about the best selling LTD game, especially if, later in the lifecicle, they'll bundle it with the console.
Nice, >100k opening on the way.
electroplankton
Banned
Or a signal that it will appeal another target.
MasterSheen
Member
Or that maybe a lot of people doesn't know it exists yet.
Which could be the "different" target it is aimed at? I think that it is more or less very similar in terms of "offer", isnt' it?
This could be an explanation, but usually we see a decrease in weekly sales after the announcment of a revision (I remember clearly this event around PSP 2000 and 3000 for example), so why this time no decrease? Could it be that the "mass market" of the 3DS is different from the PSP one?
electroplankton
Banned
Mmh, that seems unlikely. I'm not in Japan so these are just my two cents, but we saw effects on hardware immediately after an announcement, e.g. price cut, Monster Hunter 3G, following early advertisement. Now, I doubt Nintendo did not promote 3DS XL in stores after Nintendo Direct.
BishopLamont
Banned
Pokemon probably made up for watever drop the 3DS would have experienced from the 3DS XL announcement. Appealing to a different subset of people is probably also a big reason why the 3DS didn't experience a drop. I don't think anyone who wanted a 3DS was waiting on a 3DS XL to jump in, you either want one or the other, nothing comparable to the massive upgrade that is DS Phat > DSL.
3DS XL is more of a home console, since it doesn't even fit in your pocket. It won't eat into 3DS sales, it'll be complimentary.
3DS XL is more of a home console, since it doesn't even fit in your pocket. It won't eat into 3DS sales, it'll be complimentary.
Still won't be enough to push it past Wii's LTD. Its weekly rate is too low and next-gen is nearby.
I'm not saying it's gonna surpass WIi's LTD, but it's not going to have a 5-6k average per week like it's said. Not even close.
Smaller re-design and a price cut will re-launch the system, i think we have to consider those as serious points.
One has to question if a price cut and redesign will only sustain the current amount of people interested in buying a PS3, or get those who previously weren't interested at all suddenly buying in. PS3 Super Slim with a good stable of big software pushes would be good, but this year PS3's lineup consists of a lot of sequels that target the current userbase.
As someone who buys Japanese Indie music, I can attest to this. EPs cost about 15 quids while albums can cost up to 25£. It is ridiculous, although the western music are cheaper out there which is baffling. I am glad that I don't import games and DVDs because that would break my wallet in no time Lol.
But yeah, Clothes and food (and even alcohol) are cheaper over there so maybe it balances out.
BishopLamont
Banned
Yeah its not gonna sell to a new set of gamers if its the same old rehashed sequels. The PS3 needs new software if it wants to increase its baseline. 5k-6k is very likely, look at the PSP's number compared to last years. When the software dries up, so does the hardware slow down. The Wii is another example. The Wii U will also have an affect on it, similar to what the 3DS is doing to the PSP.
The PSP was leader because Nintendo software dried up on both their home console and handheld, next year there's gonna be big competition from Nintendo on both fronts. I shudder to think what all 3 Sony consoles will do next year, let alone just the PS3.
The PS3 weekly numbers is already lower compared to last year, the only reason its keeping up YTD is due to new releases now and then. Next year will be even worse. You'll see that even last year the PS3's normal weekly rate was lower compared to the same week the year before, only on weeks with new releases would it be comparable.
Parakeetman
No one wants a throne you've been sitting on!
Yeah but how many Wiis got sold back to the shop due to lack of interest once the fad died out?
Then again depending on how DQX is there might be a small sales boost.
The gap's four and a half million. To put that in perspective: Let's, generously, suggest that no more Wiis will ever be sold, and 20k PS3s are sold each week. In that environment, making up the deficit will *still* take 225 weeks; over four years.
Sure, there might be a boost from the Slim. If it gets boosted to 100k/week permanently then you're *still* looking at 45 weeks to make up the deficit.
electroplankton
Banned
The same DSi XL was aimed at? If you remember, DS sales were literally split between DSi and DSi XL; the latter did not cannibalize the former, not at all. DS Lite, instead, and DSi later, completely substitute the previous model.
The XL iteration is not something better, as DSi and DS Lite were at the time; it's something bigger, and therefore different. I'm not saying some people will prefer XL to 3DS, but that there won't be the cannibalization we saw with DSi and DS Lite simply because both versions are aimed at different needs.
BishopLamont
Banned
Just because a Wii gets returned doesn't mean a PS3 gets sold. Its on the PS3's shoulders to overtake the Wii. There's 8M PS3's, you think none got returned either? There's actually more reason to resell a PS3 since the high price means you'll get some money back, with the Wii most people would just go "fuck it" and just keep it since its already cheap and its family friendly nature means someone in the family would probably still have use for it. On normal weeks the Wii is selling about a third of PS3's numbers, sure the raw numbers aren't that big, but then the PS3's numbers aren't that big either, its gonna make it even harder for the PS3 to beat it.
This reminds me of Vinnk's "Good old reliable".
I think that we can agree that the 3DS XL is comparable to the DS XL, with the basic 3DS comparable to the DSi, I think (because I think that 3ds basic model was already well studied in terms of design, unlike the fat DS at the beginning), and we can agree that the 3DSXL could be sold aside the 3DS without cannibalizing it.
But, saying that DSi was not cannibalized by the DSXL, considering that if I remember correclty the sales did't see an increase in weekly sales, could we foresee a split of sales between 3DS and XL without any major impact/increase in its weekly resulsts?
My question is: could we imagine a change in the rhythm of sales for the console with the release of the XL?
2D platformer fatigue. I'm curious if it exist in any significant degree. We've had a decent amount of them in the last few years, all on Nintendo platforms.
electroplankton
Banned
I'm fairly sure XL will erode 3DS sales a bit, but not to a great extent. I'm expecting, let's say, from an average of 55k to 40-45k for 3DS.
BishopLamont
Banned
4 platformers, DKCR, Kirby, NSMB DS, NSMBW...Don't think thats enough to trigger a fatigue. There's also Wario but that didn't sell too well. What else? Oh Yoshi's Island, but thats more of a remake than a new game. Still I don't those all those are enough to trigger a fatigue, they're all spread out far apart. Look at the FPS genre, the genre kings are still selling big (worldwide here). Quality 2D platformers are hard to come by, every good one that comes along will be appreciated, and this is Mario we're talking about.
NSMB DS > NSMBW was 4-5 years apart. Its about time for a new one. NSMB U might underperform initially due to being a launch title and being so close to NSMB2, but NSMB2 itself should perform as expected.