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Kurds overwhelmingly voted for independence from Iraq, Turkey warns of ethnic war

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titiklabingapat

Member
Turn out was really high and the results from the non-binding referendum was 92 % Yes, 8% No. http://www.rudaw.net/RefLanding.aspx?pageid=329292

The Iraqi federal government is demanding surrender of the airports in Kurdistan:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/26/world/middleeast/iraq-kurds-independence.html?mcubz=0

Turkey's Erdogan threaten military action and warns of ethnic war:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...gan-iraq-kurds-krg-independence-a7967566.html

Iran stands with Ankara and Baghdad:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-m...qi-kurds-independence-push-idUSKCN1C11G7?il=0
 
D

djplaeskool

Member
Oberon said:
When did the creation of a new country ever go smoothly?
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This not going smoothly is a given in this case.
Turkey and ethnic Kurds have been at odds for something approaching 40 years now.
Kurds having any sort of autonomy right next door is going to be a tough sell.
 
G

GSG Flash

Nobody ruins my family vacation but me...and maybe the boy!
Kolx said:
What are the chances of this actually going through?
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Even Massoud Barzani(the Kurdish leader) admitted that this vote is not a declaration of independence but more of a mandate for his government to negotiate sovereignty with the Iraqi government, so I don't believe anything is going to happen right now.

The Kurds should definitely have their own nation, I just don't know if it's a good idea right now for the region with all the turmoil over there.
 
4

4Tran

Member
I'm not a fan of secession in general, but it feels like an independent Kurdish nation is inevitable at this point. At least the Iraqi Kurds seem to be going about it the right way, but the potential for bloodshed is very high. For one thing, I can't see Turkey being happy about it, and they seem the most willing to throw their weight around.

Oberon said:
When did the creation of a new country ever go smoothly?
Click to expand...
The last time was probably the creation of Slovakia and the Czech Republic in 1993. Nowadays, the countries get along very well.

superdeluxe said:
What's the right thing? Seems like there are no good options here
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The right thing seems to be to do nothing. The US doesn't really have a stake in this matter, and anything they do is more likely to have harmful consequences than beneficial ones.
 
S

sphagnum

Banned
superdeluxe said:
What's the right thing? Seems like there are no good options here
Click to expand...

There are no good options politically, but considering how much the Kurds have done for us I think the right thing to do in a moral sense is support their independence. At some point the lines are going to need to be redrawn in the Middle East.

But obviously we aren't going to get involved anyway, partially because of how destructive that would be and because it would go against Turkey.
 
DiscoJer

DiscoJer

Member
I feel bad for them. They really deserve their own country (I mean, the region is called Kurdistan because they've been there so long), but almost literally no one in the world agrees.

I'm sure we (the US) will support them tepidly, then immediately collapse once Turkey objects.
 
T

TyrantII

Member
The US could get involved, but only as a mediator.

Turkey has been trying to get rid of Kurds on their eastern providences for decades. What's the political hurdles to get them on board if a independent Kurdistan calls for it's people in other nations to "come home" and give up any claims in nations other than Iraq?

Not that any of that can happen in the region.
 
D

Dubbedinenglish

Banned
superdeluxe said:
What's the right thing? Seems like there are no good options here
Click to expand...

Push for an autonomous zone within Iraq, and give them greater sway in the government. They should have a stronger hand in governance for sure.

Can see the Kurdish point. They stepped up when Iraqi troops withdrew from ISIS. Problem is outside of the US (we’ll Obama admin) they are surrounded by enemies to the north and west.
 
H

hohoXD123

Member
GSG Flash said:
Even Massoud Barzani(the Kurdish leader) admitted that this vote is not a declaration of independence but more of a mandate for his government to negotiate sovereignty with the Iraqi government, so I don't believe anything is going to happen right now.

The Kurds should definitely have their own nation, I just don't know if it's a good idea right now for the region with all the turmoil over there.
Click to expand...

It's never going to be a good idea though. You're not going to get a situation anytime soon whereby iraq, iran, turkey and syria are all either in agreement/neutral with an independent Kurdistan or so weak that they cannot do anything about it.
 
1

18-Volt

Member
Kolx said:
What are the chances of this actually going through?
Click to expand...

I'd say 90%. Even though Erdogan is talking smack right now, he would be the first to recognize the state, as it would skyrocket his approval in Turkey among Kurds. Kurdish vote is Erdogan's wet dream.
 
H

hohoXD123

Member
The KRG can be pretty petty and stupid. You are surrounded by 4 nations who will do anything to prevent you from gaining independence, you have been persecuted by them for decades, and yet there is still massive infighting among the kurdish parties. Since the KDP/PDK were the ones to call the referendum, it was opposed by the PUK and Gorran initially even though independence has been a Kurdish dream for a century. Partly due to rife corruption among the political parties there is barely any money for water and electricity, many of the soldiers who fought against ISIS haven't been paid in months and have to rely on handouts while they are being led by a family of billionaires, and this is meant to be a nation ready for independence. Kurds deserve independence, but I can't see this ending well, partly because of outside powers but also because of self-inflicted injuries.

18-Volt said:
I'd say 90%. Even though Erdogan is talking smack right now, he would be the first to recognize the state, as it would skyrocket his approval in Turkey among Kurds. Kurdish vote is Erdogan's wet dream.
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He has a weird way of satiating that Kurdish vote fetish considering how he locked up HDP members and restarted the war against the PKK. Erdogan cares more about the majority vote rather than the kurdish vote.
 
1

18-Volt

Member
hohoXD123 said:
He has a weird way of satiating that Kurdish vote fetish considering how he locked up HDP members and restarted the war against the PKK. Erdogan cares more about the majority vote rather than the kurdish vote.
Click to expand...

He cares about total control over anything. Turkey's Kurdish region still votes for HDP mayors and it's a huge obstacle for him. He wants Kurds of Turkey to be more Islamic and conservative rather than socialist that HDP were trying to make them. If Kurds are to be represented in Turkish Parliament in any form, it should be under Erdogan's terms. Far-right, conservative, religious and traditionalist. And it's pretty easy to manipulate that part of Turkey, people of Kurdish region of Turkey favors Islam over anything anyway. All he needs is HDP to be gone.

I think he will recognize the state and create an opposing party in the parliament of newly created state to act as a branch of his own party AKP there. He'll fight for total control of the state but I'm not sure how easy it will be for him. Money talks, he might even make up with Barzani and have him rule the state with AKP's backing.
 
S

sphagnum

Banned
18-Volt said:
He cares about total control over anything. Turkey's Kurdish region still votes for HDP mayors and it's a huge obstacle for him. He wants Kurds of Turkey to be more Islamic and conservative rather than socialist that HDP were trying to make them. If Kurds are to be represented in Turkish Parliament in any form, it should be under Erdogan's terms. Far-right, conservative, religious and traditionalist. And it's pretty easy to manipulate that part of Turkey, people of Kurdish region of Turkey favors Islam over anything anyway. All he needs is HDP to be gone.

I think he will recognize the state and create an opposing party in the parliament of newly created state to act as a branch of his own party AKP there. He'll fight for total control of the state but I'm not sure how easy it will be for him. Money talks, he might even make up with Barzani and have him rule the state with AKP's backing.
Click to expand...

He's threatening war right in the OP, I don't think he's very interested in independent Kurdistan.
 
S

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
All people deserve the right to self-determination. I hope that the realpolitik of the situation gets out of the way and allows the people of Kurdistan the dignity they deserve. I also hope that minority non-Kurds within Kurdistan are afforded full dignity and rights, including if they wish it a right of return when or if Kurdistan is formally separated.
 
T

The Wart

Member
Stumpokapow said:
All people deserve the right to self-determination. I hope that the realpolitik of the situation gets out of the way and allows the people of Kurdistan the dignity they deserve. I also hope that minority non-Kurds within Kurdistan are afforded full dignity and rights, including if they wish it a right of return when or if Kurdistan is formally separated.
Click to expand...

I don't really understand this statement. The realpolitik of the situation is the situation, in that it describes the interests and political constraints of the parties involved. Wishing for *that* to get out of the way is like wishing for water to run uphill.

In any case it doesn't sound like the Kurds are willing to escalate this to the level of violent conflict right now. Which is probably a good thing as I don't see how that could possibly end well for them.
 
S

Showaddy

Member
Imagine being completely landlocked and surrounded by Iran, Iraq, Turkey and Syria; all of whom will fight against this. The leaders who are coming out against this reads like a list of top 10 Bond Villains...
 
F

frontovik

Banned
I get the impression that this will only add further trouble to a region already severely destabilized by war and other crises.
 
R

RangerX

Banned
I hope the decision they have made to govern themselves is respected. I doubt it though,secular nationalism is generally crushed by those in power.
 
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