[NSW] 749K
[PS4] 318K
[XB1] 203K
Retail Software
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon Wildlands: 975K
Zelda: Breath of the Wild: 850K [NSW: 650K | WIU: 200K]
Horizon Zero Dawn: 820K
Mass Effect Andromeda: 570K
1, 2, Switch: 190K
Kingdom Hearts 1.5 + 2.5 Remix: 110K
Super Bomberman R: 80K
NieR: Automata: 60K
Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of February. This is where comparing weekly averages is beneficial as March is a 5 week month while February is 4 weeks. I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for March to help show how the month might be impacted. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts.
I will be removing Xbox 360 and PS3 results in 2015/2016 from this point on. Sales are so low at this point it doesn't matter.
Code:
2011
Xbox 360 February: 535K / 4 = 133,750
Xbox 360 March: 433K / 5 = 86,600
Weekly average down 35%
PS3 February: 403K / 4 = 100,750
PS3 March: 365K / 5 = 73,000
Weekly average down 28%
Code:
Notable Events in March
[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Homefront [3 weeks]
Dragon Age II [4 weeks]
Crysis 2 [2 weeks]
Fight Night Champion [5 weeks]
LEGO Star Wars III: The Clone Wars [2 weeks]
[u]PS3[/u]
Homefront [3 weeks]
Dragon Age II [4 weeks]
MLB 11: The Show [4 weeks]
Crysis 2 [2 weeks]
Fight Night Champion [5 weeks]
LEGO Star Wars III: The Clone Wars [2 weeks]
Code:
2012
Xbox 360 February: 426K / 4 = 106,500
Xbox 360 March: 371K / 5 = 74,200
Weekly average down 30%
PS3 February: 347K / 4 = 86,750
PS3 March: 337K / 5 = 67,400
Weekly average down 28%
Code:
Notable Events in March
[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Mass Effect 3 [4 weeks] [943K]
Resident Evil: Operation Raccoon City [2 weeks]
SSX [5 weeks]
Street Fighter X Tekken [4 weeks]
[u]PS3[/u]
Mass Effect 3 [4 weeks] [237k]
MLB 12: The Show [4 weeks]
Resident Evil: Operation Raccoon City [2 weeks]
SSX [5 weeks]
Street Fighter X Tekken [4 weeks]
Code:
2013
Xbox 360 February: 302K / 4 = 75,500
Xbox 360 March: 261K / 5 = 52,200
Weekly average down 31%
PS3 February: 262K / 4 = 65,500
PS3 March: 211K / 5 = 42,200
Weekly average down 36%
Code:
Notable Events in March
[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Gears of War: Judgement [3 weeks] [620K]
BioShock Infinite [2 weeks] [583K]
Tomb Raider [5 weeks] [346K]
The Walking Dead: Survival Instinct [3 weeks]
Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm 3 [5 weeks]
[u]PS3[/u]
God of War: Ascension + God of War Saga 500GB Garnet Red Bundle $349
God of War: Ascension [4 weeks] [633K w/bundles]
MLB 13: The Show [5 weeks]
Tomb Raider [5 weeks] [294K]
BioShock Infinite [2 weeks] [287K]
The Walking Dead: Survival Instinct [3 weeks]
Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm 3 [5 weeks]
Code:
2014
Xbox One February: 258K / 4 = 64,500
Xbox One March: 311K / 5 = 62,200
Weekly average down 4%
PS4 February: 269K / 4 = 67,250
PS4 March: 371K / 5 = 74,200
Weekly average up 10%
Xbox 360 February: 114K / 4 = 28,500
Xbox 360 March: 111K / 5 = 22,200
Weekly average down 22%
PS3 February: 102K / 4 = 25,500
PS3 March: 67K / 5 = 13,400
Weekly average down 47%
Code:
Notable Events in March
[u]Xbox One[/u]
Titanfall 500GB Bundle $499 [4 weeks] [218K]
Titanfall [4 weeks] [865K]
Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes [3 weeks] [~56K]
[u]PS4[/u]
Supply finally readily available
Infamous Second Son [3 weeks] [<500K]
Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes [3 weeks] [~150K]
[u]Xbox 360[/u]
South Park: The Stick of Truth [5 weeks] [<242K]
Dark Souls 2 [4 weeks] [<171.5K]
[u]PS3[/u]
Final Fantasy X / X-2 HD Remaster [3 weeks] [208K]
South Park: The Stick of Truth [5 weeks] [<198K]
Dark Souls 2 [4 weeks] [<178.5K]
Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes [3 weeks] [52.8K]
Code:
2015
Xbox One February: 276K / 4 = 69,000
Xbox One March: 229K / 5 = 45,800
Weekly average down 34%
PS4 February: 342K / 4 = 85,500
PS4 March: 330K / 5 = 66,000
Weekly average down 23%
Code:
Notable Events in March
[u]Xbox One[/u]
Halo: The Master Chief Collection 500GB bundle $349 [4 weeks]
Battlefield Hardline [3 weeks] [>430K]
Final Fantasy Type O [3 weeks] [>42K]
[u]PS4[/u]
Battlefield Hardline [3 weeks] [>400K]
Bloodborne [2 weeks] [387K]
MLB 15: The Show [1 week]
Final Fantasy Type O [3 weeks] [158K]
Code:
2016
Xbox One February: 248K / 4 = 62,000
Xbox One March: 242K / 5 = 48,400
Weekly average down 22%
PS4 February: 405K / 4 = 101,250
PS4 March: 330K / 5 = 66,000
Weekly average down 35%
Code:
Notable Events in March
[u]Xbox One[/u]
$50 price cut on all models March 22nd - April 30th (12 days in March NPD / 2 weeks)
The Division 1TB bundle $399 [4 weeks] [~20K]
Quantum Break 500GB White bundle $349 [1 week]
The Division [4 weeks] [844K]
EA Sports UFC 2 [3 weeks]
[u]PS4[/u]
The Division [4 weeks] [928K]
EA Sports UFC 2 [3 weeks]
MLB 16: The Show [1 week] [<179K]
Code:
2017 February Weekly Averages
[IMG]http://awesomegifs.com/wp-content/uploads/george-michael-snoopy-walk.gif[/IMG]
Code:
Notable Events in March
[u]Nintendo Switch[/u]
LAUNCH $299* [5 weeks] *Selling out
Zelda: Breath of the Wild [5 weeks]
1, 2, Switch [5 weeks]
Super Bomberman R [5 weeks]
[u]Xbox One[/u]
$50 Price cut ends first day of the month (February 26th)
Xbox One S Minecraft 500GB Bundle $249 March 12th - 18th [1 week]
Free game deal March 19th - 25th [1 week]
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon Wildlands [4 weeks]
LEGO Worlds [4 weeks]
Mass Effect Andromeda [2 weeks]
[u]PS4[/u]
$50 Price cut ends first day of the month (February 26th)
Horizon Zero Dawn [5 weeks]
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon Wildlands [4 weeks]
LEGO Worlds [4 weeks]
NieR: Automata [4 weeks]
Mass Effect Andromeda [2 weeks]
Kingdom Hearts 1.5 + 2.5 Remix [1 week]
MLB The Show 17 [1 week]
Notes:
In terms of total sales, March is one of the bigger non holiday months of the year, but is when sales start to slow down as we go into spring and summer. Even with an additional week, total month sales are below February. The exception here is March 2014 for PS4 and XB1 but those are of course, exceptions.
Xbox
The Xbox 360 dropped an average of -30%, with a minimum of -22% (2014) and maximum of -35% (2011).
The Xbox One is a bit harder to put down in terms of averages as March 2014 had the launch of highly anticipated GOTG ”HAVE YOU SEEN IT" Titanfall® with a bundle that basically gave it away for free, resulting in a -4% drop from February (another example of how the Xbox One was in trouble, not even that could keep sales up). 2015 saw a more traditional drop of -34% and 2016 had a more conservative drop of -22% thanks to a $50 price drop at the end of the month. Removing 2014, the Xbox One drop is an average of -28%, which is normal for March.
Playstation
The PS3 dropped an average -33% with a minimum of -22% (2012) and maximum of -47% (2014). If you to remove 2014, the PS3 average was closer to -28%.
PS4 has a pretty clear outlier in 2014 as there were stock shortages for holiday 2013 and early 2014. March 2014 is when PS4 got a hefty supply replenishment this month and was able to get supply over demand. 2015 was more reasonable with a drop of -23% and 2016 -35%. Removing 2014, the PS4 drop is an average of -29%. Like XB1, this is normal.
Nintendo
We know Switch was the fastest selling launch for a Nintendo in history up to at least the first 5 days. Switch was a Friday launch, while every other Nintendo hardware launch was a Sunday. We have first week sales for Nintendo so here they are.
First Week *All 7 days*
Gamecube: >500K
https://www.cnet.com/news/nintendo-reports-record-gamecube-launch/
Nintendo DS: 479K
Wii: 476K
Wii U: 425K
3DS: 398K
The last Nintendo launch in March was 3DS in March 2011. This was one week and it launched at 398K. The next 4 weeks (April) it sold an additional 194K, so the first 5 weeks for 3DS was 592K. Switch has an entire 5 weeks in the March NPD and with the fact it was the fastest selling system for Nintendo and has shown no signs of slowing down, the debut should be higher than this. Much higher.
Recap
March is down from February both in weekly sales average and total month sales. Weekly average from February is anywhere in the -25% to -35% range.
The biggest March ever recorded back in the 7th gen was the Wii with 721K back in 2008. Second biggest? Wii again with 601K in 2009.
The biggest March ever recorded in the 8th gen is the PS4 with 371K in 2014. Second biggest? PS4 again with 330K in 2016.