DarthWaiter
Banned
Tiktaalik said:
It doesn't surprise me. Japanese gamers taste right now have changed so dramatically and unpredictably that it seems really only a select few actually seem to sale any games there.
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Media Create Sales 3/10 - 3/16
- Thread starter cvxfreak
- Start date
It doesn't surprise me. Japanese gamers taste right now have changed so dramatically and unpredictably that it seems really only a select few actually seem to sale any games there.
Phife Dawg
Member
Of course it'll grow, unless someone honestly thinks there will be no PS3's sold anymore. But that's not really an achievement of any sort. Unless of course by "grow" you mean grow considerable more market share. That would bring us right back to my previous post.Airkiru said:
And I'd still like to see that list continued.
There's a difference between "growing marketshare" and "catching the Wii". Growing marketshare can be accomplished simply by being outsold less drastically by the Wii than now. Catching up would mean outselling the Wii for long enough to negate its already huge install base lead.Phife Dawg said:
I find it almost insulting that you pretend to not recognize a difference.
I think comparing titles like Dynasty warriors and hot shots to GT and FF is not a good comparision. While they sold well, would you say that Singstar is a system selling franchise. I mean its big in Europe on the Ps2 but its not a title that people go out and spend 500 dollars on a system for. These are more casual secondary games that rack up sales as more people own a console.
With that said no game is going to save the Ps3 in Japan, there just isn't a steady flow of games regardless of quality.
With that said no game is going to save the Ps3 in Japan, there just isn't a steady flow of games regardless of quality.
Phife Dawg
Member
Have you read the posts? Also, you left out "considerable" in "growing marketshare".Who cares if PS3 has 25% or 27% marketshare? Certainly not something worth talking about. To grow considerable market share PS3 has to come into striking distance with the Wii.bcn-ron said:
What's with the insult part?
charlequin
Banned
bcn-ron said:
While that's true, it's also true that the contribution to the LTD marketshare made by each week is less than the last. The longer it takes for the sales difference between Wii and PS3 to even out, the less it matters in the overall marketshare picture. Which is pretty much what's going on with DS vs. PSP now -- even being outsold on a weekly basis, the DS' install base is so huge that the marketshare picture isn't meaningfully being affected.
I haven't done the math yet, but there's definitely a point after which it's essentially inconceivable that the PS3 could gain more than ~10% of marketshare over the remainder of the generation. My suspicion is that that point lies within the window over which we know what the PS3's software lineup looks like, but maybe someone who enjoys crunching numbers more than I do can give us a breakdown.
Sage00 said:
Nope, not quite. A simple example to illustrate.
Let's imagine a situation where console Q has 9 million sales and R 1 million -- so a 90%/10% marketshare split. From that week forward, the Q sells 60k a week and the R 40k a week. After 100 weeks, console Q has sold 6m extra consoles and console R 4m, for an overall split of 15m to 5m or 75%/25% marketshare.
Each week the sales ratio of Q to R is higher than the current marketshare, Q gains marketshare; each week it's lower, R gains marketshare. Thus, each week the PS3 sells better (relative to the Wii) than ~25% or whatever, it gains marketshare. (But how much it gains gets lower and lower as the generation wears on.)
No, thanks. The difference in likelihood between the two is just as large as the difference in sales needed to accomplish either at a minimum. I already posted on the previous page how likely I think it is for the PS3 to "catch" the Wii (hint: impossible).Datschge said:
Now let's talk about growing share. It's perhaps counter-intuitive at first, but marketshare growth is possible even for a product that never outsells the competition. Example incoming:
Let's say Product A sells 1000 units a week and Product B sells 200 units a week. Both stay at that level fof 10 weeks. The resulting installed base is 10000:2000 units, 16.7% install base share for Product B.
Now let's say sales improve for Product B, but it still remains far behind Product A's sales, which shall remain constant for purposes of this example. In the following weeks. Product A keeps selling 1000 units a week, but Product B's sales increase to 400 units per week. Ten weeks later, the total installed base is now 10000+10000:2000+4000=20000:6000, 23% install base share for Product B. It has gained share even though it never even once outsold Product A, not even close.
The result is still very different from "catching" the leading product. Even though there's room for definition what "catching" even means, I'd understand it to be at least parity in weekly sales levels, if not parity in total installed base. Neither is even close in meaning to the simple growth of marketshare, which can be had with much less of a shift in sales.
Edit: oh wow, beaten total I am.
BishopLamont
Banned
JoshuaJSlone said:
There's still hope for the PS3!
Psychotext
Member
2009 is the year of the PS3.BishopLamont said:
I don't know where to put this bit of information, which could be interesting, but I didn't want to make a thread or something so I'll put it here.
Yesterday at the news in the Netherlands, the channel did an item about the Wii, about it's heavy shortages right now and they got an upportunity to already demo Wii Fit at Nintendo with a Nintendo rep present, and one of the most known game journalist in the Netherlands (so no incorrect bullshit). All fine and dandy, but the Nintendo rep said that Nintendo has "readied some additional factories and has now an output of 2 million Wii's per month."
I don't know about how accurate it is, and if it was known it would be all over the internet by know but at the very least it could be an indication that Nintendo will up their output sooner than expected? Just in time for the launch of Wii Fit and Brawl perhaps? Like I said, it was an item about the Wii on prime time news so it isn't just anything
And she cleary said what I quoted, and not 1.8 million. Perhaps it also interest some of you that the Wii is still experiencing heavy shortages and that there are long waiting lists all over the country. This is (again) the case since christmas, because before that the shortages were over for months. So it was basicly a reply to the current Wii situation in the Netherlands.
Yesterday at the news in the Netherlands, the channel did an item about the Wii, about it's heavy shortages right now and they got an upportunity to already demo Wii Fit at Nintendo with a Nintendo rep present, and one of the most known game journalist in the Netherlands (so no incorrect bullshit). All fine and dandy, but the Nintendo rep said that Nintendo has "readied some additional factories and has now an output of 2 million Wii's per month."
I don't know about how accurate it is, and if it was known it would be all over the internet by know but at the very least it could be an indication that Nintendo will up their output sooner than expected? Just in time for the launch of Wii Fit and Brawl perhaps? Like I said, it was an item about the Wii on prime time news so it isn't just anything
And she cleary said what I quoted, and not 1.8 million. Perhaps it also interest some of you that the Wii is still experiencing heavy shortages and that there are long waiting lists all over the country. This is (again) the case since christmas, because before that the shortages were over for months. So it was basicly a reply to the current Wii situation in the Netherlands.Psychotext
Member
I still wonder where these 1.8m a month Wii shipments are going... simply because we know what they sell in Japan and the US and we have a good idea of what they're selling in Europe.
2 million per month by now should be possible, they have produced 1.8 million for a long time.
Most of them went to the Holidays (Nov. + Dec.). I guess a large part of the holiday shipments was taken from the January shipment. As for now, perhaps they reserve a part for the korean and chinese launch, though we should wait for March NPD. I really wonder how big the NA shipments are in the last few weeks.Psychotext said:
test_account
XP-39C²
Jammy said:
I'm pretty sure that FF13 can still bring in big bucks even if its on the PS3. Maybe not as much if it was on Wii or maybe PS2, but still, i'm pretty sure it still could bring in quite a chunk of money even if its on the PS3.
Paracelsus
Member
Jammy said:
Yeah, FFXIII is going to bomb, it's unavoidable.
>.>
Seriously dude, wat.
Rancid Mildew
Banned
BishopLamont said:
That list perfectly illustrates the course of the PS3's future in Japan.
picsou said:
wii is not a PS2 not because the wii userbase are avoiding 3rd party games on purpose.
You people need to think that the current japanese situation is a consequence of decisions taken in 2005 and 2006. After the gamecube disaster, there wasn't a single independent 3rd party developer that would bet a penny on the " revolution " and its weird crap.
companies that had good relationship with nintendo like capcom or square enix, took the option of cautious movements: low budget, decent games to test the waters like Z&W or DQS. Other devs, specially the westerns, haven't even been able to put anything other than shovelware on the wii. They weren't expecting to spend a single minute researching the possibilities of the Wii, let alone developing games for it.
In short, nobody believed on the wii and nintendo knew that so they stuck to their plan of making their machine a " nintendo machine ", expecting to not have much support from anyone on the industry.
we are now in 2008 with Wi, destroying the competition like there is no tomorrow, people buying nintendo stuff like crazy, people wanting to waggle that control, to make those miis, etc. etc. and developers are left with a big " WHAT THE FUCK" in their heads. Do you think that changing plans is as easy as " quick! cancel everything! move everything to the wii! " ? No, is damn hard because to this develoeprs disgrace, you can't port PS360 stuff to the wii " as is", you would have to change it very, very significantly.
So they can't cancel projects that have been in the oven for 1.5 or 3 years behind neither they can port them to wii because they would suck because they were never meant to use the functions of the wii ( motion sensing, etc. ).
Nintendo has EVERYONE in the industry grabbed by the balls because they know they WILL be the kings of videogaming through out this generation, 3rd parties on board or not.
So to conclude, in terms of raw comercial success, the Wii will be the PS2 of this generation, the only difference is that 3rd parties are not going to get a slice of the pay this time.
picsou said:
I don't see your point but I would like to add something
you mention resident evil in your "3rd party" example. Speaking strictly about Japan, do you think resident evil 5 will be a commercial success? No, it won't, it just can't. Far bigger IPs haven't been able to crack 400k or 500k, RE5 has no way to go but the path of gundam, virtua fighter, MNG, etc.
O.k, after setting that in stone, let's pose the following question:
would RE5 be the commercial success capcom is looking for in Japan if it was on the Wii? NO!! it would not either!! why? because the wii was never properly supported by 3rd parties, it was never meant to attract hardcore gamers, it was never meant ( at least in 2005-6) to be the main console of any gamer at all. So now we have console that people buy for wii sports, play, mario party and wii fit that people do not want for anything else because they were taught not to want it for hardcore gaming.
so what's the conclusion? 3rd parties that produce games for Japanese audiences are fucked, absolutely and deeply fucked and its all their fault. Becuase of their lack of vision of what the possible escenarios could have been. They rushed to bet on PS3 and they lost, now they pay with their measly 200k LTDs for IPs that could easily reach 800k.
for people to buy wii hardcore games now, such games should have been announced earlier so that people would know and have the perception that the Wii is not only good for social gaming but for hardcore gamers as well but that was the job of 3rd parties, they failed to do it and now they pay.
ComputerNerd
Banned
Sage00 said:
You're wrong. You can gain market share by being outsold by not as much as before. Let's say for example that overall the PS3 has a 24% market share in Japan. If the PS3 makes up a 30% share of next week's numbers, although they were still outsold by the Wii by quite a bit, their overall market share went up.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
picsou said:
I'm not sure why you say DBZ when there's been two mainline DBZ releases on the Wii and 0 on the PS360 (although one is coming soon). Gundam there's been two on the Wii and two on the PS360.
Resident Evil there's been 2 on the Wii with one coming soon and 0 on the PS360, although admittedly RE5 is coming to the PS360. I expect to see other RE games appearing on the Wii.
FF is not PS360, it's just PS3. In the mean time, the Wii is looking to get 2 FF spin-off games and Enix's only next-gen title so far has also been on the Wii. MGS is also not PS360
So, again, of the ten biggest franchises on the PS2: One is gone from consoles and the Wii is the likely target if it ever comes back, one is PS3 exclusive, although the Wii is getting spinoffs, one is gone from consoles, one is all platforms, one is dead, two are Sony first-party, two are PS3 exclusive, one is PS360 exclusive.
Adding the next two biggest franchises, one is Wii exclusive and the other is Wii60 right now but with the company stating that the DS and the Wii are the major destinations for the series as of 2007. So instead of looking at the mixed bag that is last gen's franchises, let's consider what the breakout hit next-gen franchises in Japan are... Oh wait, there haven't been any in Japan except for first-party Wii titles. If you want to look at second tier games, I would say that each system has proven itself capable of delivering, although each has also proven itself of being capable of major bombas. The question is whether or not you have a team that can effectively design and market a title that appeals to the audience, and what the budget of the game is going to be.
Now, let's ask ourselves -- can we name any major Japanese titles that have been announced since the Wii has started to dominate? The list is very short. Resident Evil 5 is probably the most notable title announced in that time period, but even then it's hard to say that RE is a "Japanese" title per se given that it's sold better in the West for at least the last 7 years or so.
So, I see one of three major trends happening:
- The Japanese giving up making games for the Japanese (Capcom)
or:
- The Japanese giving up making games for the Japanese on consoles (happening to a minor degree with every publisher so far)
or:
- Support for the Wii well in excess of the Cube, although not near as much as the PS2 (Namco)
On another note, the last time I argued that Wii third party sales were quite poor, I was told that while my arguments were correct based on currently available data, there were three conditions I needed to wait for before being proved right:
1) I needed to wait for the sales of high profile Wii games. I reject this premise, since it's similar to Sony nutcases saying "Wait for <x>", where x is a moving goalpost. If the criterion for evaluating Wii third-party success is to wait for successful third-party games for the Wii, then it's not an honest analysis at all. A system is just as much defined by its mediocre titles as its megaton titles.
2) I needed to wait for off-chart growth of sales to show up in year-end charts so I could see the slow growth of titles. I was told I needed to wait because first-year PS2 sales were by far and large quite poor. I waited for this, and I'm happy to say that off-chart growth has been kind to a few titles. While Zack and Wiki is still a bomb, it's in line with the kind of numbers we ended up seeing from low-profile year-one PS2 titles in Japan!
3) I needed to wait for the sales of newer games, even low-level games, to see whether or not the Wii would pick up like the PS2 did. The evidence here is mixed, I feel. Two trends were contributors to my original argument--the first was that Wii/PS2 multi-plat titles were bombing on Wii, the second was that original B-grade and C-grade titles on the Wii were bombing. Since then, we haven't seen many absolute bombs. We've seen a number of successes. It seems like Wii titles lifetiming at 50-100k is now a lot more common than 10-30k, which is a decidedly good sign. Wii-targeted games, even shitty ones, are now doing better supporting the conclusion that games made for the Wii sell better than games that are incidentally on the Wii. For multi-plat titles, the jury is still out. PES sold OK but not really great. The next DBZ game is PS360 and I genuinely believe that's because DBZ:BT3 uptake on the Wii was too low and they wanted to leave PS2 behind, so that's bad news.
Summary:
- Your assertion that PS360 are getting all the big games is double not-true. First, because there haven't been any big-game announcements in a relevant time period. Second, because the actual distribution of titles is mixed.
- I see one of three things happening: No Japanese-focused games, No Japanese-focused console games, or significantly improved Wii support.
- As someone who has repeatedly argued that the Wii has been a failure for third party games, I'm happy to admit that I was at least partially wrong. The situation has improved a good deal both with more recent games and more recent sales for games that were previously megabombas. If this trend continues, the Wii very well could be a great place for third parties.
bafflewaffle
Member
JoshuaJSlone said:Hur hur.
Not PantherLotus pretty, but
These numbers also make me notice that by Media Create's count, as of last week Wii has dectupled X360's LTD.
I wasnt even expecting a chart that went all the way back to '04. Thanks, man.
titiklabingapat
Member
Probably not. The Wii will make it's own blockbuster franchises though, the same way the Playstation created a whole bunch of new breeds.picsou said:
The "old way" will probably be always on the HD consoles.
The mega franchises however, like FF will probably do better on the Wii just based on userbase alone, yes.
Devil May Cry, Dynasty Warrior, Yakuza and MGS among others are great selling franchises but most of them are hardly generation shifting titles.
This is exactly right.Arde5643 said:
Smaller developers that work with smaller projects with budgets that are several magnitudes smaller are much more flexible and can flop to any console with little prep time.
I tend to disagree with the notion that third parties don't sell on Wii. What's true is that big-name third parties don't, but all that shovelware isn't coming outta thin air.
And believe you me, it's-a sellin'.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Well, in Wii's 8 months it saw Dragon Quest Swords do better than any third party game ever did on N64 or GCN.picsou said:
Individually as of today? Hard to say. Had they all appeared on Wii to begin with, it could be a quite different userbase makeup today.picsou said:
BishopLamont
Banned
I don't think traditional series on the Wii is the way to go, the key is new IP's made for the Wii, something most third partys failed to even consider before the Wii launched. Sure not every new IP for the Wii will make it big, but if any third party manage to make a breakout hit, it'll bring way more profit then any of their "next-gen" efforts.picsou said:
BishopLamont said:
Actually traditional series have sold great on Wii while new IPs have bombed :\
Resident Evil
Dragon Quest
Madden
Fifa
Guitar Hero
DDR
Sonic
Tiger Woods
I don't think any new IP that isn't from EA (MySims) has sold well..would like someone to prove me wrong though..
BishopLamont
Banned
I'm not saying traditional games don't sell on the Wii, but rather new IP's have more potential to sell well. What's the two best selling games so far on the Wii? Wii Fit/Wii Sports, and you can even throw in Wii Play for kicks. If it's one thing we learnt about Japan in the past few years is that they want new experiences not the same old, especially when it comes to the Wii.Lobster said:
