Support NeoGAF

[Y2Kev]

That's pretty sad to see, even in Japan, a COD game doing so well and a Tales game doing so poorly

I think all of Japan has just taken an interest in seeing your lamenting of contemporary tastes every other post.

 

[schuelma]

I really don't believe there is something as too late. Nintendo games seem to do phenomenal. Why can't third parties replicate this? .

Nintendo games do phenomenal because Nintendo has generally been consistent with high profile high quality releases since day 1. Nothing of the sort happened with 3rd parties. It took nearly 3 years for a genuine high quality sequel to a top PS2 franchise to appear and longer for a high quality mainline RPG. By that time I think many gamers have moved on to other systems which quite frankly offer a lot better 3rd party software.

 

[Regulus Tera]

How would you explain Sin & Punishment 2's sales then? Is Nintendo not able to market for shit?

If the game in question is not a high-profile one, then yeah.

 

[Nirolak]

If the game in question is not a high-profile one, then yeah.

I'm not sure I would call Friend Collection or Style Savvy high profile titles, but they still managed to make them huge successes. I think at some point we have to point to a lack of interest, regardless of the quality of the game.

 

[schuelma]

I'm not sure I would call Friend Collection or Style Savvy high profile titles, but they still managed to make them huge successes. I think at some point we have to point to a lack of interest, regardless of the quality of the game.

S&P2 has nothing near the appeal of those games. It might have been able to do a bit less awful than it did, but expecting it to sell even a 100K was unrealistic.

 

[Nirolak]

S&P2 has nothing near the appeal of those games. It might have been able to do a bit less awful than it did, but expecting it to sell even a 100K was unrealistic.

Yeah, I agree with that. The market for titles like these is limited, and at some point I think publishers are deciding that spending the advertising necessary to make them sell more would cost more than it would generate.

 

[Linkhero1]

How would you explain Sin & Punishment 2's sales then? Is Nintendo not able to market for shit?

Well I don't remember the first one doing so well, so I wouldn't have expected this one to do so well either. The first Crystal Bearers did sold 100k+ on the Gamecube, so I believed the Wii one could have at least sold this much first week.

It's not primarily to do with marketing, IMO, although some titles - including Nintendo's - could have done with better, more expansive promotion.

The problem I see with third party software is that, while Nintendo came out swinging with big franchises or exciting new IP that was promoted well and heavily, third parties largely stumbled out of the gates with low-budget spin-offs that completely changed core gameplay (RE: UC, SW: Katana, SC: Legends etc. etc.), low-budget new IP (Elebits, for example) and PS2/GC ports. I think that this initial wave of poorly-thought-out rushjobs and cheapy ports did a lot to poison the well for future titles or sequels to that early splurge of software.

Couple this with Nintendo's own mishandling of the system during 2008 and I think the environment for third party software - outside of mega-launches like MH3 - and even smaller Nintendo software has been made very, very unwelcoming.

Yeah I agree that this is the main problem. My point is that some of them could have done better with a bit more marketing. I guess third parties didn't think it would sell massively in the first place and by the time they realized it's a beast in sales, they were already well into developing their low-budget titles. I mean I don't think it's too late to reverse what they have done. I mean we're seeing it with games like MH3 and Grace.

 

[Rolf NB]

That's pretty sad to see, even in Japan, a COD game doing so well and a Tales game doing so poorly

Speaking of which, is COD4 Reflex coming out in Japan?

 

[test_account]

Anyone think NSMB Wii can hit 3 million by the year's end?

I dont know if NSMB Wii will reach as much as 3 million by the end of the year, but maybe somewhere around 2.5 million?

How many tracking weeks are left of 2009 by the way, 3 weeks, right?

 

[LINK.AGE76]

Well I don't remember the first one doing so well, so I wouldn't have expected this one to do so well either. The first Crystal Bearers did sold 100k+ on the Gamecube, so I believed the Wii one could have at least sold this much first week.

Crystal Chronicles on the Gamecube was 4 player multi whereas this game isn't. Also I think the first one was better quality wise and a fresh idea. I think Crystal Bearers sold less because it wasn't a rpg. Oh and it came out during a 2 month span where 4 final fantasy game are to come out.

Edit: I think FF13 will sell 1.85m ltd in Japan.

 

[test_account]

I just saw a Twitter update for Andriasang.com:

Early morning Imperial Hot! First shipments of 1.8 million units, huh? http://twitpic.com/tsi4u
1 minute ago from Echofon

Does this mean that the first FFXIII shipment is on 1.8 million copies?

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Yeah I agree that this is the main problem. My point is that some of them could have done better with a bit more marketing. I guess third parties didn't think it would sell massively in the first place and by the time they realized it's a beast in sales, they were already well into developing their low-budget titles. I mean I don't think it's too late to reverse what they have done. I mean we're seeing it with games like MH3 and Grace.

I don't know. I believe it is too late, as I don't see third parties taking the underperformance of titles like Sengoku Musou 3 or Tales of Graces on the chin and coming back next year with similarly strong follow-ups, and I think it would be that kind of dogged persistence that is what would be required to turn matters around, coupled with a major push from Nintendo to promote third party software and relations.

I realise this sounds horribly pessimistic, and as Wii/PC/DS gamer I am sorely disappointed by the initial (and current) lack of support and the subsequent weak sales of half-decent titles, but I think people have to be realistic about where things are heading. Pending a miraculous (Nintendo-funded?) explosion of third party software, we are not going to see any significant third party support for the rest of the system's life.

The Wii had a chance to become a home for great first party and third party software, just as the DS, and thanks to the sluggishness and short-sightedness of third parties and Nintendo's own missteps I think that window has closed. I'm not ruling out a reversal - these things do happen very occasionally - and nor am I saying that the Wii will never receive any decent third party games again, but I don't think anyone looking for great third-party titles should hold their breath as they will be few and far between.

 

[Rolf NB]

Crystal Chronicles on the Gamecube was 4 player multi whereas this game isn't.

Obligatory:

 

[djtiesto]

I think all of Japan has just taken an interest in seeing your lamenting of contemporary tastes every other post.

Well, would you be happy if the games you were interested in quit getting made due to contemporary tastes changing?

And I don't do it every other post... maybe every 3 or 4 posts

 

[Opiate]

I largely agree with Schuelma. I don't think the reasonable people here are arguinig that there is some inherent property that wards off strong sales on Nintendo platforms: there is no magical, anti-third-party property, particularly on a system with such a huge influx of new users. It's not logical. Recent empirical refutations include the GBA and of course the DS, which third parties did get behind and saw strong success with.

It's a matter of actually supporting the system, and by and large, it wasn't supported. People who wanted strong third party efforts went elsewhere, and now it would take a monumental effort to bring them back.

 

[AniHawk]

I largely agree with Schuelma. I don't think the reasonable people here are arguinig that there is some inherent property that wards off strong sales on Nintendo platforms: there is no magical, anti-third-party property, particularly on a system with such a huge influx of new users. It's not logical. Recent empirical refutations include the GBA and of course the DS, which third parties did get behind and saw strong success with.

It's a matter of actually supporting the system, and by and large, it wasn't supported. People who wanted strong third party efforts went elsewhere, and now it would take a monumental effort to bring them back.

So what you're saying is we should wait for Dragon Quest X.

 

[Bebpo]

If FFXIII really has 1.8 million first shipment, I think the game is going to have a great launch. Don't really believe though...

That's pretty sad to see, even in Japan, a COD game doing so well and a Tales game doing so poorly

Eh, two franchises milked to death and made for generic appeal. Don't really care who wins this battle myself.

 

[Bel Marduk]

I don't know. I believe it is too late, as I don't see third parties taking the underperformance of titles like Sengoku Musou 3 or Tales of Graces on the chin and coming back next year with similarly strong follow-ups, and I think it would be that kind of dogged persistence that is what would be required to turn matters around, coupled with a major push from Nintendo to promote third party software and relations.

I realise this sounds horribly pessimistic, and as Wii/PC/DS gamer I am sorely disappointed by the initial (and current) lack of support and the subsequent weak sales of half-decent titles, but I think people have to be realistic about where things are heading. Pending a miraculous (Nintendo-funded?) explosion of third party software, we are not going to see any significant third party support for the rest of the system's life.

The Wii had a chance to become a home for great first party and third party software, just as the DS, and thanks to the sluggishness and short-sightedness of third parties and Nintendo's own missteps I think that window has closed. I'm not ruling out a reversal - these things do happen very occasionally - and nor am I saying that the Wii will never receive any decent third party games again, but I don't think anyone looking for great third-party titles should hold their breath as they will be few and far between.

Tbh, I'm not really expecting this huge shift for the other consoles either when it comes to Japan. We haven't really seen it this gen and I blame it all due to the handhelds. I don't think this is necessarily just a Wii problem. Oh well, I'm a handheld gamer too so I'm covered But many of the major Japanese games that launched for the Wii haven't launched over here yet so there's still tons of fun to be found regardless. I just think people like to extend their e-penis with more games than they can handle.

 

[test_account]

If it can sell 1 million this week and 1 million the next, yeah.

Isnt it 3 tracking weeks left of 2009, so NSMB Wii needs to seel a bit over 500k in the 3 upcoming weeks like kswiston mentioned?

 

[dolemite]

I just saw a Twitter update for Andriasang.com:



Does this mean that the first FFXIII shipment is on 1.8 million copies?

Wasn't there an earlier rumor of 1.8 million copies and 200k bundles?

 

[ccbfan]

WOW

I didn't think I would ever see the day where a COD game(abet 2 versions) would outsell a new mainline Tales game in Japan.

 

[donny2112]

I expect Nintendo will always have gaping holes in their release schedule like this, unless and until third parties become a mainstay.

Or they get another RARE sidekick. RARE was a sizeable development studio with output that tended to complement Nintendo's very well. That's been sorely missing the last two generations.

because the cause of the problem we saw in 2009 -- poor third party support -- apparently isn't solvable. There's nothing Nintendo can do about it, in my opinion,

So you're saying Nintendo needs to wrap up Wii and come out with Wii 2 soon so that it becomes a PS3 situation where developers can port to the Wii with little increased cost? I support this notion.

 

[AniHawk]

Or they get another RARE sidekick. RARE was a sizeable development studio with output that tended to complement Nintendo's very well. That's been sorely missing the last two generations.

Remember when they tried doing it with Retro and all we got were a couple boring Metroid spinoffs instead?

 

[test_account]

If FFXIII really has 1.8 million first shipment, I think the game is going to have a great launch. Don't really believe though...

Ye, i wonder if it really is 1.8 million. I just saw it was written at Adriansang.com's Twitter and wanted to ask here if FFXIII's first shipment really could be as big as 1.8 million copies

Wasn't there an earlier rumor of 1.8 million copies and 200k bundles?

Maybe, but personally i cant recall to have heard this rumor (i havnt really followed the sales threads here on NeoGAF that much the last 2-3 weeks though, so i might have missed that rumor). But if there was a rumor about a FFXIII first shipment of 1.8 million copies, it seems to match what Adriansang.com's Twitter update said at least I have no idea about 200k FFXIII PS3 bundles, but i think that this sounds like a nice number of bundles at least

 

[AceBandage]

Remember when they tried doing it with Retro and all we got were a couple boring Metroid spinoffs instead?

Metroid Pinball wasn't boring...

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

I largely agree with Schuelma. I don't think the reasonable people here are arguinig that there is some inherent property that wards off strong sales on Nintendo platforms: there is no magical, anti-third-party property, particularly on a system with such a huge influx of new users. It's not logical. Recent empirical refutations include the GBA and of course the DS, which third parties did get behind and saw strong success with.

It's a matter of actually supporting the system, and by and large, it wasn't supported. People who wanted strong third party efforts went elsewhere, and now it would take a monumental effort to bring them back.

But DS 3rd party effort were pretty much below standards in the first years, and when they released quality software the userbase was there ready to get those games...

Metroid Pinball wasn't boring...

Neither was the other one, Metroid Prime Hunters.

 

[markatisu]

1.8m shipment, wowzers I am not too sure how fast that will move (if true)

 

[nextgeneration]

1.8 mil is crazy. ps3 vs wii - fight! gonna be really interesting next week.

 

[u_neek]

Hmmm, didn't Square Enix officially say only 1.3m by the end this week?

 

[Zoe]

Mainichi Shinbun article about the 1.8 million.

 

[schuelma]

If its 1.8M people who changed their prediction are going to be pissed.

Seems high to me, but what do I know.

 

[kay]

I was looking at 2009 Q1 Wii releases. It needed very big try from Nintendo to have a worse 2010 Q1, but they managed to do it.
2010 Q1
xx . [WII] Resident Evil: The Darkside Chronicles (Capcom) - / 14/01/10
xx . [WII] Tatsunoko Vs. Capcom: Ultimate All-Stars (Capcom) - / 28/01/10
xx . [WII] Zangeki no Reginkleiv (Nintendo) - / 11/02/10
xx . [WII] Madworld (Sega) - / 10/02/10

There's 6 more than that so far.

01/28 Dance Dance Revolution Music Fit
02/10 Radirgy Noa Wii
02/25 Daikaijuu Battle Ultra Coliseum DX
02/25 GTI Club World City Race
02/25 Super Monkey Ball Athletic
03/18 Oyako de Asobo Miffy no Omochabako

Other titles that might make it:
NMH2 - Marvelous is clearly inept so maybe not
Red Steel 2 - delayed to 3/23 in the US so maybe not
Silent Hill Shattered Memories - already out
Yu-Gi-Oh 5D's Duel Trancer - March? in the US

And that's it. Compared to 10 PS2, 18 Xbox 360, 26 PS3, 50 DS, & 60 PSP. Yeah... you can see why Japan is focused on handhelds just with that. The fact that there is a 60 PSP games in Q1 is quite astonishing since there is only about a quarter of that in America.

By the way, Sengoku Basara 3 is officially a summer release so May at the earliest, no chance for Q1.

Hmmm, didn't Square Enix officially say only 1.3m by the end this week?

That wasn't official, it was a prediction by a random blogger.

 

[HK-47]

Metroid Pinball wasn't boring...

It also wasn't made by Retro.

 

[schuelma]

Mainichi Shinbun article about the 1.8 million.

Wow


Friday morning will be interesting.

 

[AceBandage]

It also wasn't made by Retro.

It was the only Metroid spinoff I could think of.

 

[Nirolak]

It was the only Metroid spinoff I could think of.

AniHawk has a blazing hatred of Metroid Prime.

 

[Linkhero1]

Obligatory:
http://art.penny-arcade.com/photos/215471989_GKZWD-L-2.jpg[img][/QUOTE]
Pretty much this.

[QUOTE="Cosmonaut X"]I don't know. I believe it is too late, as I don't see third parties taking the underperformance of titles like Sengoku Musou 3 or Tales of Graces on the chin and coming back next year with similarly strong follow-ups, and I think it would be that kind of dogged persistence that is what would be required to turn matters around, coupled with a major push from Nintendo to promote third party software and relations.

I realise this sounds horribly pessimistic, and as Wii/PC/DS gamer I am sorely disappointed by the initial (and current) lack of support and the subsequent weak sales of half-decent titles, but I think people have to be realistic about where things are heading. Pending a miraculous (Nintendo-funded?) explosion of third party software, we are not going to see any significant third party support for the rest of the system's life.

The Wii had a chance to become a home for great first party and third party software, just as the DS, and thanks to the sluggishness and short-sightedness of third parties and Nintendo's own missteps I think that window has closed. I'm not ruling out a reversal - these things do happen very occasionally - and nor am I saying that the Wii will never receive any decent third party games again, but I don't think anyone looking for great third-party titles should hold their breath as they will be few and far between.[/QUOTE]
Do we know how much of the percentage of initial shipping that Grace sold? I couldn't find the number anywhere. Yeah both Grace and Sengoku Musou numbers weren't that great, but eventually both will reach a pretty respectable ltd.

I do think third parties missed out with the Wii and that they will probably be much more prepared for the next Nintendo console. I don't know if the window has closed, but I do think it's closing up before next batch of consoles come out in a few years. I'm going to stay optimistic and hope for the best from this point on.

 

[LINK.AGE76]

WOW at 1.8m first shipment, I thought it would reach 1.85m ltd :lol

 

[Y2Kev]

No sir, I do not believe.

edit: WOW ITS REAL

 

[Nirolak]

WOW at 1.8m first shipment, I thought it would reach 1.85m ltd :lol

It is possible they won't sell out their initial shipment. Monster Hunter 3 ended up with that scenario.

 

[dolemite]

Fuck, I should've kept my original predictions, I guess.

 

[[Nintex]]

Wada must feel really confident or maybe Nomura and his team want to grudgefuck the Crystal Bearers team.

 

[u_neek]

WOW at 1.8m first shipment, I thought it would reach 1.85m ltd :lol

If it's really true, and I know it's too late to change my prediction

Spoiler

- I'm gonna be waaay off on NSMB 3rd week numbers anyway -

I can see the game doing 1.5m over the weekend.

 

[LINK.AGE76]

It is possible they won't sell out their initial shipment. Monster Hunter 3 ended up with that scenario.

I still think it will around 1.4m first week tho.

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

Mainichi Shinbun article about the 1.8 million.

WOW so it's definetly true...

Even so, I think it's going to be hard to reach anywhere close those numbers, but who really knows?

 

[markatisu]

So if it does not sell out of its shipment will we get the same bomba speak we got when MH3 did not

 

[gofreak]

I thought earlier there was a very specific breakdown of day one shipment, shipment by weekend etc?

Wouldn't that be more reliable than this?

Maybe 1.8m is the shipment by the end of Dec or something.

 

[Nirolak]

So if it does not sell out of its shipment will we get the same bomba speak we got when MH3 did not

Probably.

1.8 million is still over 500,000 less than FFXII's 2,322,329.

 

[Zoe]

Maybe 1.8m is the shipment by the end of Dec or something.

It says "shipped" in past tense... 発売元の「スクウェア・エニックス」の和田洋一社長は約１８０万本を出荷したことを明らかにした。

 

[Elios83]

This will be fun.
1.8m is already huge by itself but it's crazy huge relatively to the PS3 installed base of 4m units.
They will need crazy hardware sales or a crazy attach ratio to sell that amount.
So how many Lightning bundles did they ship? 100k? 200k?