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Media Create Sales: Week 1, 2017 (Jan 02 - Jan 08)

ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
DarkLordMalik said:
Nintendo Switch is very portable indeed. Can't wait to carry it in my back pocket.

C2E68PgXUAAMZ_i.jpg



I said price and software both go hand to hand.

You can have the best software in business but if you keep the price high, there will be a limit to how much you can sell. So if the price isn't dropped, their will be a limit to how much the Switch can sell.

Both are equally as important.
Click to expand...
It is the size of actual smartphones without the controller... Galaxy, iPhone, etc are all bigger than 6".

iPhone-6-in-womens-jeans-pocket-1.jpg
 
O

Orgen

Member
I can assure you that Nintendo sees the Switch as a home console and the substitute of the Wii U, so any expectation and every decision they make will be with these 2 things in mind. With that said expecting the Switch to sell between 3,5-4 million on its first year (like any Nintendo handheld) is madness IMO but selling less tan 1.5 million would be madness too so I'm expecting something like being in the 2-2.5 ballpark.

As I've said earlier there're still some games unannounced (and at least one has big selling potential) but I don't know why they weren't announced today. Maybe they are waiting for E3 (or another similar event) or maybe they are not sure they could be 2017 titles and prefered not to mention them (but seeing that they announced SMT and NMH3 that are still pretty far off it kind of invalidates this hypothesis).

Anyway, exciting times for Japanese sales this year! March is going to be amusing to follow and also Splatoon 2 this summer (seeing that SE is not going to launch any big hitter this year unless DQXI makes it).

PS: It's always amusing seeing a couple of the "why don't you leave FFXV alone it seems you only want it to fail" doing the exact same thing with the Switch and its SW without knowing anything... such hypocrytes.
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Oregano said:
Do we have any idea how much content Arms has?

It just looks like an unorthodox fighting game. I'm not seeing why it might not be able to justify a full price if it has enough modes and stuff.
Click to expand...

This strikes me as a game that should be sold at a lower price and then make more money on the back end with loot crates or DLC or whatever.
 
K

kendrake

Banned
arms is pretty much a game to showcase one switch "concept"

its just a smaller gimmick than being hybrid

feels a bit desperate to give the switch as many selling points as possible, even if they look crappy
 
S

Sterok

Member
Nirolak said:
This strikes me as a game that should be sold at a lower price and then make more money on the back end with loot crates or DLC or whatever.
Click to expand...

I think this more than low install base is hurting Nintendo's profits honestly. They seem unwilling to really go all out on lots of DLC (aside from Smash) or microtransactions. People here might like that, but Nintendo fans are used to paying them more money for the oddest things, so I'm sure they will make a killing once they finally get around to implementing microtransactions in major games.
 
M

Mory Dunz

Member
Oregano said:
I think the Pro controller has the fancy smancy rumble tech included. Not sure it's worth the trade off but that's why the controller cost so much(I think).
Click to expand...

yeah the the reason.
It has Gyro, HD Rumble, Amiibo NFC, and probably something else.

sigh....70 bucks. I might just use the joycon connector thing if I get one.
 
O

Oregano

Member
Nirolak said:
This strikes me as a game that should be sold at a lower price and then make more money on the back end with loot crates or DLC or whatever.
Click to expand...

I'd agree that it would be more successful that way but I'm not sure that necessarily equates to it not being able to justify a full price release, if that makes sense.
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Oregano said:
I'd agree that it would be more successful that way but I'm not sure that necessarily equates to it not being able to justify a full price release, if that makes sense.
Click to expand...

I guess my thought process here is that, even if we pretend the people who are buying the Switch only own a Switch (and this is an exceptionally terrible assumption), you have Zelda at launch, Mario Kart in April, and then Splatoon in the Summer, so pitching a $60 risk in the middle there seems like a large ask.

Maybe if they had some kind of extensive beta, and the game was both really packed with content and a good roadmap for post launch support, that could possibly work, but given it's a near launch title, I'm expecting something a bit more barebones with no pre-release trial.
 
P

PshycoNinja

Member
LordKano said:
Yeah, great performance. FFXV will hit LTD about 75% of what the previous game did at launch.
Click to expand...

If the best-selling PS4 game is considered a failure...

ethomaz said:
PS4 is in a better shape at FFXV launch than PS3 at FFXIII launch... in both hardware and software sales.

So how PS4 selling better hardware and software than PS3 affected FFXV launch? Care to explain.


So PS3 was what??? Because it did worst than PS4.
Click to expand...

That is not true at all.

PS3 sales when XIII launched was 4.27M in Japan
PS4 sales when XV launched was 3.74M in Japan.
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
To me, the real issue is that the two dedicated platforms that aren't end of life (or nigh end of life) seem to have a mediocre at best outlook, especially given the information we have today.

Like yes, maybe there's a scenario where Nintendo makes a drastic move to improve the Switch, or some game causes one of the platforms to shoot up like a rocket, but this is the kind of scenario that's going to cause major confidence issues in Japanese publishers.

I expect a lot of publishers to really struggle to figure out what to do next. There are a variety of options on the table ranging from staying the course to mobile to overseas expansion, but none of them are easy, and all of them are expected to get increasingly difficult.
 
A

ArkhamFantasy

Member
The current Switch model is going to struggle, its a weak console thats more expensive than the PS4 and Xbox One but its too big to fit in your pocket so its an inconvenient handheld that also requires an online fee for multiplayer. Basically the worst of both worlds.

They have 3 things that can turn the thing around but all 3 will take time.

1.Slim revision that allows it to fit in your pocket
2.Price of manufacturing going down
3.Pokemon

A $199 Slim Switch pokemon bundle will sell alot......so the waiting game begins.
 
T

thestopsign

Member
DarkLordMalik said:
Yeh, it looks real nice in public as well.

iPadinPantsPockets.jpg
Click to expand...

Stop being obtuse. The vast majority of people who are carrying this around are going to do so in some sort of bag, just like laptops or iPads have been for ages. I personally never would carry something even as big as the 3DS in a pocket unless I am wearing a bigger coat... which would also probably hold a Switch.
 
A

ArkhamFantasy

Member
DarkLordMalik said:
I don't doubt it.

But some people expect it to do well at launch as well, which I highly doubt.

P.S a bad launch will obviously drop the third party support as well.
Click to expand...

It will have a large launch just like every Playstation/Xbox/Nintendo then sales will fall off of a cliff until the 3 things i mentioned happen.

Luckily for Nintendo they have alot of money to live off of so they can play the waiting game.
 
D

DarkLordMalik

Member
thestopsign said:
Stop being obtuse. The vast majority of people who are carrying this around are going to do so in some sort of bag, just like laptops or iPads have been for ages. I personally never would carry something even as big as the 3DS in a pocket unless I am wearing a bigger coat... which would also probably hold a Switch.
Click to expand...
3e3.jpg
 
T

thestopsign

Member
Another thought. What is the likelihood of Breath of the Wild doing better than Skyward Sword out of necessity due to a lack of other software on the Switch? I would say it's pretty high at this point. It only has to reach ~350k if my memory serves me correct.

DarkLordMalik said:
3e3.jpg
Click to expand...

It's honestly hard to tell with you.
 
S

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
I agree that the launch lineup is pretty weak for Japan. I will say though that IF Switch has DQ XI, Splatoon 2, and Pokemon Stars by the end of the calendar year...that could be pretty compelling.
 
S

Scum

Junior Member
Nirolak said:
To me, the real issue is that the two dedicated platforms that aren't end of life (or nigh end of life) seem to have a mediocre at best outlook, especially given the information we have today.

Like yes, maybe there's a scenario where Nintendo makes a drastic move to improve the Switch, or some game causes one of the platforms to shoot up like a rocket, but this is the kind of scenario that's going to cause major confidence issues in Japanese publishers.

I expect a lot of publishers to really struggle to figure out what to do next. There are a variety of options on the table ranging from staying the course to mobile to overseas expansion, but none of them are easy, and all of them are expected to get increasingly difficult.
Click to expand...

Would it be daft of me to think that the 3DS is now a bit of a hindrance? I know. I know. It's daft.
 
T

thestopsign

Member
ArkhamFantasy said:
It will have a large launch just like every Playstation/Xbox/Nintendo then sales will fall off of a cliff until the 3 things i mentioned happen.

Luckily for Nintendo they have alot of money to live off of so they can play the waiting game.
Click to expand...

Xbox and Playstation's haven't had large launches in while in Japan (besides Vita, which had a middling display during a holiday season).
 
C

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
thestopsign said:
Another thought. What is the likelihood of Breath of the Wild doing better than Skyward Sword out of necessity due to a lack of other software on the Switch? I would say it's pretty high at this point. It only has to reach ~350k if my memory serves me correct.
Click to expand...

Breath of the Wild tries something different and will benefit from being a launch title. It's the only big launch title afterway.

Mario is the title I'm looking how it will perform at holidays.
 
S

saichi

Member
whichever system can sell over 2 mil units in Japan will be the best selling system in 2017. Out of 3DS, PS4, and Switch, onnly Switch has a chance to reach that. Even as a home console, 2 million for the first year with March launch is not really that high of a goal.
 
O

Oregano

Member
Nirolak said:
I guess my thought process here is that, even if we pretend the people who are buying the Switch only own a Switch (and this is an exceptionally terrible assumption), you have Zelda at launch, Mario Kart in April, and then Splatoon in the Summer, so pitching a $60 risk in the middle there seems like a large ask.

Maybe if they had some kind of extensive beta, and the game was both really packed with content and a good roadmap for post launch support, that could possibly work, but given it's a near launch title, I'm expecting something a bit more barebones with no pre-release trial.
Click to expand...

I think that's a fair point.

Nirolak said:
To me, the real issue is that the two dedicated platforms that aren't end of life (or nigh end of life) seem to have a mediocre at best outlook, especially given the information we have today.

Like yes, maybe there's a scenario where Nintendo makes a drastic move to improve the Switch, or some game causes one of the platforms to shoot up like a rocket, but this is the kind of scenario that's going to cause major confidence issues in Japanese publishers.

I expect a lot of publishers to really struggle to figure out what to do next. There are a variety of options on the table ranging from staying the course to mobile to overseas expansion, but none of them are easy, and all of them are expected to get increasingly difficult.
Click to expand...

I think that's a big miss from Nintendo. I'd argue that they should have gone simpler. I would have dropped the HD rumble and IR tech and just had Gyro & Normal controls. It would have kept costs down and kept the message simpler.

I do think in general that the amount of support for Switch is indicative of publishers seeing it inherent portable games. Just as an example I'll take Square Enix(who might be the Switch's biggest supporter which I definitely didn't expect).

Over the lifetime of the Wii U they released:
Deus Ex Human Revolution
DQX

Currently announced for Switch:
DQ Heroes I&II
DQX
DQXI
Spelunker Z
I am Setsuna
Octopath Travellers

There's a world of difference there.
 
C

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Oregano said:
I do think in general that the amount of support for Switch is indicative of publishers seeing it inherent portable games. Just as an example I'll take Square Enix(who might be the Switch's biggest supporter which I definitely didn't expect).

Over the lifetime of the Wii U they released:
Deus Ex Human Revolution
DQX

Currently announced for Switch:
DQ Heroes I&II
DQX
DQXI
Spelunker Z
I am Setsuna
Octopath Travellers

There's a world of difference there.
Click to expand...

If 3DS didn't exist there is.
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Scum said:
Would it be daft of me to think that the 3DS is now a bit of a hindrance? I know. I know. It's daft.
Click to expand...

It's actually pretty common for the previous platform to be an issue for converting to a new generation in Japan.

Sony certainly struggled against the Vita (and arguably still is) when trying to get the PS4 going.

Oregano said:
I think that's a big miss from Nintendo. I'd argue that they should have gone simpler. I would have dropped the HD rumble and IR tech and just had Gyro & Normal controls. It would have kept costs down and kept the message simpler.

I do think in general that the amount of support for Switch is indicative of publishers seeing it inherent portable games. Just as an example I'll take Square Enix(who might be the Switch's biggest supporter which I definitely didn't expect).

Over the lifetime of the Wii U they released:
Deus Ex Human Revolution
DQX

Currently announced for Switch:
DQ Heroes I&II
DQX
DQXI
Spelunker Z
I am Setsuna
Octopath Travellers

There's a world of difference there.
Click to expand...
It seems to vary a bit per publisher.

Square Enix is giving it a mix of console and handheld support, with all the titles being rather Japan focused.

Bandai Namco is giving it three console games (Dragon Ball XenoVerse, Tales, Taiko).

Sega-Atlus is giving it two console games (Sonic 2017, SMT HD) and two downloadable-ish/budget games (Sonic Mania, Puyo).

Konami is giving it a downloadable-ish/budget game (Bomberman).

Gung-Ho is making a console game (No More Heroes 3).

Koei Tecmo is making a console game published/funded by Nintendo (Fire Emblem Warriors).

Arc System Works is giving it their port-to-everything game (BlazBlue).

Nippon Ichi is giving it their standard market test console game (Disgaea).

Marvelous is giving it a handheld game (Harvest Moon).

Capcom is giving it Apple TV tier support (Street Fighter II).

Level-5 is MIA.

Did I miss anyone, or any of their titles, among third party Japanese publishers?
 
O

Oregano

Member
No, that's a good summary. Namco also had Taiko listed though!

My point is more even if those titles are console titles(like Tales) the publisher wouldn't have given a straight Wii U successor the time of day at all. I definitely don't think Nippon Ichi would have.
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Oregano said:
No, that's a good summary. Namco also had Taiko listed though!

My point is more even if those titles are console titles(like Tales) the publisher wouldn't have given a straight Wii U successor the time of day at all. I definitely don't think Nippon Ichi would have.
Click to expand...

I guess my main confusion with this assertion would be that they don't actually seem to be giving the platform historically handheld titles.

It's more like they're treating it as a console that might possibly have reasonable sales.

Square Enix actually seems to be treating it as a PS4 they don't expect to sell outside Japan.
 
Å

Ōkami

Member
Games released alongside the SEGA Saturn (November 22nd, 1994)
Virtua Fighter
Myst

Games released alongside the PlayStation (December 3rd, 1994)
Ridge Racer
Gokujou Parodius Da! Deluxe Pack
A-Train IV
Crime Crackers
Mahjong Goku Tenjiku

Games released alongside the Nintendo 64 (June 23rd, 1996)
Super Mario 64
Pilotwings 64
Saikyou Habu Shogi

Games released alongside the Dreamcast (November 27th, 1998)
July
Godzilla Generations
Pen Pen TriIcelon

Games released alongside the PlayStation 2 (March 4th, 2000)
Ridge Racer V
Kessen
Street Fighter EX3
DrumMania
Eternal Ring
A-Train 6
Mahjong Taikai III: Milennium League

Games released alongside the Game Boy Advance (March 21st, 2001)
Super Mario Advance
F-Zero Maximum Velocity
Kururin
Power Pro Kun Pocket 3
Mega Man Battle Network
Yu-Gi-Oh! Dungeon Dice Monsters
Mr. Driller 2
Napoleon
Castlevania: Circle of Moon
Konami Crazy Racers
ChuChu Rocket!
Momotaro Matsuri
GT Advance Championship Racing
Super Dodgeball Advance
Monster Guardians

Games released alongside the Nintendo GameCube (September 14th, 2001)
Luigi's Mansion
Wave Race: Blue Storm
Super Monkey Ball

Games released alongside the Nintendo DS (December 2nd, 2004)
Super Mario 64 DS
WarioWare: Touched!
Pokémon Dash
Daigasso! Band Brothers
Feel the Magic: XY/XX
Polarium
Life Signs: Surgical Unit
Mr. Driller: Drill Spirits
Zoo Keeper
Mahjong Taikai
The Urbz: Sims in the City
Zunou ni Asekaku Game Series! Vol.1: Cool 104 Joker & Setline

Games released alongside the PlayStation Portable (December 12th, 2004)
Hot Shots Golf: Open Tee
Ridge Racers
Mahjong Fight Club
Armored Core: Formula Front
DarkStalkers Chronicle: The Chaos Tower
Lumines

Games released alongside the PlayStation 3 (November 11th, 2006)
Ridge Racer 7
Resistance: Fall of Man
Mobile Suit Gundam: Crossfire
Genji: Days of the Blade
Miyazato San Kyoudai Naizou: Sega Golf Club

Games released alongside the Wii (December 2nd, 2006)
Wii Sports
Wii Play
WarioWare: Smooth Moves
The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess
Ennichi no Tatsujin
Elebits
Tamagotchi Party On!
Crayon Shin-Chan: Saikyou Kazoku Kasukabe King Wii
Pangya Fantasy Golf
SD Gundam: Scad Hammers
Red Steel
Super Monkey Ball: Banana Blitz
Trauma Center: Second Opinion
Kororinpa: Marble Mania
Escape from Bug Island
Wing Island

Games released alongside the Nintendo 3DS (February 16th, 2011)
Nintendogs + Cats: French Bulldog / Shiba / Toy Poodle & New Friends
Professor Layton and the Miracle Mask
Samurai Warriors: Chronicles
Super Street Fighter IV: 3D Edition
Winning Eleven 3DSoccer
Ridge Racer 3D
Bust-A-Move Universe
Combat of Giants: Dinosaurs 3D

Games released alongside the PlayStation Vita (December 17th, 2011)
Hot Shots Golf: World Invitational
Uncharted: Golden Abyss
Dynasty Warriors Next
Lord of Apocalypse
Disgaea 3: Absence of Detention
Ridge Racer
Shin Kamaitachi no Yoru: 11 Hitome no Suspect
Touch My Katamari
Shinobido 2: Revenge of Zen
Dream C Club Zero Portable
Army Corps of Hell
Mahjong Fight Club: Shinsei Zenkoku Taisen Han
BlazBlue: Continuum Shift Extend
Ultimate Marvel Vs. Capcom 3
Virtua Tennis 4
Dungeon Hunter: Alliance
F1 2011
Monster Radar
Asphalt: Injection

Games released alongside the Wii U (December 8th, 2012)
New Super Mario Bros. U
Nintendo Land
Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate
ZombiU
Warriors Orochi 3: Hyper
Tekken Tag Tournament 2: Wii U Edition
Assassin's Creed III
Ninja Gaiden 3: Razor's Edge
Batman: Arkham City - Armored Edition
FIFA 13
Mass Effect 3: Special Edition

Games released alongside the PlayStation 4 (February 22nd, 2014)
Knack
Battlefield 4
Yakuza: Ishin!
FIFA 14
Killzone: Shadow Fall
Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition
Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag
Dynasty Warriors 8 with Xtreme Legends
Call of Duty: Ghosts - Dubbed Edition
Need for Speed: Rivals
Nobunaga's Ambition: Sphere of Influence
NBA 2K14
 
O

Oregano

Member
Nirolak said:
I guess my main confusion with this assertion would be that they don't actually seem to be giving the platform historically handheld titles.

It's more like they're treating it as a console that might possibly have reasonable sales.

Square Enix actually seems to be treating it as a PS4 they don't expect to sell outside Japan.
Click to expand...

That's true but I think that's at least partially by virtue of those lines blurring anyway. Is porting Xenoverse 2 necessarily much different than having a new Butouden game?

I'd also say that the 3DS notably had mostly console style games announced up front. Level 5 is really the big omission.

It will be interesting to see if God Eater has a Switch SKU, I'm thinking no at the moment but then will it skip Vita?
 
K

kendrake

Banned
Nirolak said:
I guess my main confusion with this assertion would be that they don't actually seem to be giving the platform historically handheld titles.

It's more like they're treating it as a console that might possibly have reasonable sales.

Square Enix actually seems to be treating it as a PS4 they don't expect to sell outside Japan.
Click to expand...
that comes down to 3ds and previous handhelds being underpowered in general

this is the first machine that can sell well and isn't severely underpowered, whether it was a handheld or home console wouldn't have changed much considering the market conditions
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Nirolak said:
It's actually pretty common for the previous platform to be an issue for converting to a new generation in Japan.

Sony certainly struggled against the Vita (and arguably still is) when trying to get the PS4 going.


It seems to vary a bit per publisher.

Square Enix is giving it a mix of console and handheld support, with all the titles being rather Japan focused.

Bandai Namco is giving it two console games (Dragon Ball XenoVerse, Tales).

Sega-Atlus is giving it two console games (Sonic 2017, SMT HD) and two downloadable-ish/budget games (Sonic Mania, Puyo).

Konami is giving it a downloadable-ish/budget game (Bomberman).

Gung-Ho is making a console game (No More Heroes 3).

Koei Tecmo is making a console game published/funded by Nintendo (Fire Emblem Warriors).

Arc System Works is giving it their port-to-everything game (BlazBlue).

Nippon Ichi is giving it their standard market test console game (Disgaea).

Marvelous is giving it a handheld game (Harvest Moon).

Capcom is giving it Apple TV tier support (Street Fighter II).

Level-5 is MIA.

Did I miss anyone, or any of their titles, among third party Japanese publishers?
Click to expand...

Koei-Tecmo is also providing Romance of the Three Kingdoms and Nobunaga's Ambition, which...I don't know where they would fit, since they've appeared on both PS3/PS4 and Vita recently. Let's say it's two of their traditional offerings.
Your list also misses Derby Stallion, a franchise which last appeared on 3DS back in 2014 (over 100,000 copies sold).
Honestly, depending on (I know) a lot of factors (like the sales of the console itself and what iterations of those franchises are announced for Switch), so far it has already displayed some decent support from several Japanese companies overall, with some standing out compared to others (Square-Enix, mostly, but Atlus going immediately with a SMT project is notable as well). Also, Disgaea 5 Complete is totally Disgaea 5 Portable in another timeline. Of course, it needs more, and some of the missing expected titles are quite important (unfortunately, Laura skewed our perception by releasing the rumour of a March 17th release for the console, but we were still expecting MHXX on it. Level 5 has to be something in development, even if it's just Inazuma Eleven. And where's Tekken 7? Harada hoped to announce its release date at an event this month, and the game should be out by the end of March.
I wonder if the severe cold that he mentioned on Twitter might've been the cause of his absence on stage
), but I'm going to say it's a decent start.

Also, it'll be interesting (and by interesting I hope not depressing) to see what other announcements could come from Japan through Famitsu or other channels now that the console has been more properly unveiled.
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
There is an argument to be had that "handheld games" aren't really a concept anymore, yes.

In that scenario, I would expect the Japanese industry's perspective on the system to become very apparent when we see which multi platform games start showing up (and which don't) this Fall.
 
K

kendrake

Banned
bamco seems to be putting in the most work out of all the third party publishers

level 5 will come when they're ready

capcom will come for mh, but beyond that i have no idea how much they will invest in switch, they are pretty much like se with dq, doing out of necessity rather than real commitment

everyone else is just testing the waters, understandable but meaningless

actually se has octopus path, that might have some legs
 
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