Splatoon in the first 3-6 months of launch instead of after the system had already died?
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Splatoon in the first 3-6 months of launch instead of after the system had already died?
Resident Evil 7 doesn't have that potential.
Good, now I'm more positive for Switch.
Gamer @ Heart
Member
DQ11 and splatoon 2 are not appealing for japan?
ethomaz
Banned
Like we are running with PS3 beating PS4 after FFXIII launch since late 2015... I stand correct since them.
I do think PS4 will peak in 2017.
metalslimer
Member
2 million seems like a complete longshot based on the current info we have, but I guess we might be surprised. Splatoon 2 will give it a nice boost though. I guess I somehow forgot Pokemon Stars. Dragon Quest 11, Pokemon Stars, and Mario Odyssey would be really strong if available by the end of the year.
DarkLordMalik
Member
Some people are expecting Switch to be the 3DS successor with this launch price, lol.
KuwabaraTheMan
Banned
I can't see how 1.5 million would be anything but the lowest bar for the Switch to clear. It should launch in the 3-400,000 range. It's sales might level off at a lower level for awhile, but Splatoon's release over Summer should see a big boost (no indication of exactly when it will drop, but I imagine Nintendo will want it out before Obon). Not to mention Mario later in the year, and then the Nintendo holiday sales. And Dragon Quest XI whenever that comes out will be a big title, of course.
And that's before considering the heavily rumored Pokemon Stars release.
If the Switch can't get to even 1.5 million with that software lineup, then it's clearly a massive failure on Nintendo's part.
go_straight
Banned
the form factor alone is already way more appealing.
BluePikmin11
Member
Don't expect Level-5 this year, Hino already said Level-5 is currently trying to find the Switch's potential so they could get the most out of that system.
No Inazumas, Laytons, or Yo-kais till next year.
No Inazumas, Laytons, or Yo-kais till next year.
Switch line up this year strong enough for heavy hitters countng what is known so far even if you take out out the pathetic launch. The question is if Nintendo will be forced for a price cut before the end of the year, Splatoon 2 is the real test.
KillerMan91
Member
2 million or under would mean huge bomb for Switch. GBA/DS/3DS all did over 4 million first year in Japan. If Switch is looking to do something like 2 million for a year before holidays there will be price cut.
ethomaz
Banned
I guess you won't see a price cut this year but Nintendo will have a cheaper bundle without the dock at later of the year.
Like I said price cut is out of question in my opinion.
Cheaper without dock bundle will be released late this year.
Yep,
Is it a System Seller or just another pretender to the throne?
Anyhow if Switch doesn't do 3 million in it's first year - Nintendo should just close shop and start working strictly on mobile games.
DarkLordMalik
Member
If Switch can get Pokemon and Dragon Quest this year, then yeh, it has a shot at good sales for sure.
But as it stands, there is no proper way to gauge its sales success considering how majority of its lineup hasn't been fully revealed yet.
Switch won't be the 3DS successor though. 3DS is still going strong in its 6th year with new games announcements like MHXX and SMT for it, with possibly a couple more later down the line. I don't see a full focus on Switch until late 2017 or so.
But as it stands, there is no proper way to gauge its sales success considering how majority of its lineup hasn't been fully revealed yet.
Switch won't be the 3DS successor though. 3DS is still going strong in its 6th year with new games announcements like MHXX and SMT for it, with possibly a couple more later down the line. I don't see a full focus on Switch until late 2017 or so.
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
Damn. I dont think it'll be the unstoppable force some think but ehh whats your reasoning
If Nintendo took drastic action with 3DS at first months (even if it worked only in Japan) I don't see why they won't do the same for the only system they have anymore.
No More Musou
I don't think they're willing to lose money like that anymore given how everything related to this system is priced from the console to the accessories to the games to the online service.
I think they're expecting lower sales, and just want to make as much as possible from the customers they do have.
I think they're expecting lower sales, and just want to make as much as possible from the customers they do have.
From what we saw at the conference I'm going to say no. Not by a long shot.
KillerMan91
Member
Well that would be pretty much price cut as far as Japan goes.
Given its "Fire Emblem" generic, I'd say its the mobile game, the musou game being close-ish, and probably also a new Fire Emblem game from IntSys. The third is the least likely.
But I expect FE Warriors this year, early.
Given what John said on the price being a surprise for getting down to 300$, I don't think they're actually getting much on this hardware. It seems the major profit margin is the accessories with the controllers seemingly being on par for the PS4/X1 in terms of overhead.
From the hands-on stuff, there doesn't seem to be any really obvious cut corners either. Huge battery, IPS screen with a solid color gamut, the build is light but solid, etc.
The dock being 90$ is the most obvious price nonsense, and we have no word on the online but its definitely for profit.
DarkLordMalik
Member
Well good to know that I can play Mario on PS5 in 2020.
Considering the quality of these musous and how fast Koei Tecmo can churn them out, it is not out of possibility here.
That's the Switch in a nutshell, from the price of hardware and software to the subscription service. They want to squeeze as much money as possible from the people that'd get the system regardless of price and/or quality.
Lol as if Nintendo will make games for consoles at all if/when they go third party.
Mario will be dead by then.
Odyssey won't even sell as much as 3D World apparently.
It's all downhill
i don't see the point abandoning the customers they had last generation on 3DS. There is difference between lower sales and collapse.
DarkLordMalik
Member
iPhone 10 it is then.
KuwabaraTheMan
Banned
Yeah, I'd expect mobile stuff and the Musou game, with probably a tease of a new mainline game for Switch in development (probably not much more than a 15 second teaser announcing its existence).
FE Warriors is definitely this year. Probably around September/October.
yongeandcollege
Member
And your number is?
I am pretty sure Fire Emblem Warriors will be 2017 after how quickly they pumped out Hyrule Warriors from that lackluster reveal to launch.
I am also expecting the game to do well if they play their cards right with the roster (Fire Emblem, Awakening and Fates with a side of Tellius and Genealogy) and a good DLC strategy.
Looking at PS4 line up, around this time this year for major release, for January we had Dragon Quest Builders and Yakuza Kiwami, both multiplatform games and one where PS4 version didn't sold the most, nothing for February and Dark Souls III for march, that being the first major PS4 game not to be cross gen further in the year Pawafuru 2016 still didn't had a release date nor did Dragon Quest Heroes II, though both were planned for Spring/Early Summer, both multiplatform too.
Without release dates later in the year there was Tales of Berseria, Persona 5, Final Fantasy XV and Yakuza 6, as well as faint hope for Dragon Quest XI as the January anniversary stream hadn't happened yet.
This year we have a Kingdom Hearts collection a Danganrompa game that will sell more on Vita and Resident Evil 7, February has a Super Robot Wars that will sell more on Vita on the long run and Koei Tecmo's take on Dark Souls (which doesn't seem to be picking much interest in Japan) and for march there's Horizon coming the same week as the Switch, nothing major planned for the rest of spring.
For the rest of the year there's Dragon Quest XI and most likely a new Yakuza, new games will probably indeed be announced but as major games is concerned that's about it for PS4 in 2017.
Without release dates later in the year there was Tales of Berseria, Persona 5, Final Fantasy XV and Yakuza 6, as well as faint hope for Dragon Quest XI as the January anniversary stream hadn't happened yet.
This year we have a Kingdom Hearts collection a Danganrompa game that will sell more on Vita and Resident Evil 7, February has a Super Robot Wars that will sell more on Vita on the long run and Koei Tecmo's take on Dark Souls (which doesn't seem to be picking much interest in Japan) and for march there's Horizon coming the same week as the Switch, nothing major planned for the rest of spring.
For the rest of the year there's Dragon Quest XI and most likely a new Yakuza, new games will probably indeed be announced but as major games is concerned that's about it for PS4 in 2017.
metalslimer
Member
I guess I'm just thinking that Nintendo isn't going to be willing to drop the price much further than it already is. Unless the thing sells Vita/WiiU numbers for months I don't see it happening. If it manages to stay selling in the 20k a week range I think they would be happy in Japan. This is primarily because I'm just assuming that they have a cheaper portable only version lined up for next year.
Based on what they've shown I can't imagine Nintendo thinks the system is the true 3DS successor. Even at the Japanese conference, they were pushing it as a home console which is completely strange as I thought they would emphasize the portable aspects more in that conference. Portable only Switch next year without all the expensive accessories with an already baked in great launch lineup at 20k yen seems like a great idea.
Based on what they've shown I can't imagine Nintendo thinks the system is the true 3DS successor. Even at the Japanese conference, they were pushing it as a home console which is completely strange as I thought they would emphasize the portable aspects more in that conference. Portable only Switch next year without all the expensive accessories with an already baked in great launch lineup at 20k yen seems like a great idea.
thestopsign
Member
I think the Switch does 2.5-3 million this year in Japan based on what we have right now. Upside potential is high if you start to add in Pokémon, price drops, or a title like Animal Crossing.
That means a 500-600k launch month and a November + December holiday season north of a million.
That means a 500-600k launch month and a November + December holiday season north of a million.
if we start playing the "IF" game then yes it can sell decently
but the reality game is that it is priced as a home console, dont have ANY significant portable brand on it, the only one being a multiplatform DQ that will sell way better on other platform and maybe won't hit in '17..
so...no, it isn't a 3ds successor and won't sell nearly as close as other portables did
I can't believe people is still trying to see and judge its potential as if it's a portable..
but the reality game is that it is priced as a home console, dont have ANY significant portable brand on it, the only one being a multiplatform DQ that will sell way better on other platform and maybe won't hit in '17..
so...no, it isn't a 3ds successor and won't sell nearly as close as other portables did
I can't believe people is still trying to see and judge its potential as if it's a portable..
Kresnik258
Member
Ha. So they're basically going for a Vita/WiiU strategy even before the console's launched? "We accept that this is a niche product so will just milk the fanbase for all they're worth".
That's effectively what Sony did after about the end of 2013 which was the last time they cut the price of the console.
LordRaptor
Member
I think you're right regarding the short term and early adopter gouging, but I expect them to get very aggressive with price cuts and bundling for the holidays, even if they are funding JP only discounts with revenue from NA online fees (as interestingly their information regarding online fees explicitly states only NA will be subject to those fees initially)
pokemon? Or are you waiting for an official annoucement?
dunno how it will sell, so i'll say between 1-10 million >_>
handheld switch is probably next year for 199 but i really wouldn't count out the possibility of the handheld only switch coming as early as this holiday in japan to be honest.
I heard it's coming in a double pack with Monster Hunter.
I wouldn't be surprised either. Not expecting it but it wouldn't surprise me.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Ōkami;228291464 said:
Wait they released Yakuza Kiwami & 6 in the same year?.... Why exactly
?Psycho_Mantis
Banned
There a plenty of good games that underperform and are overlooked for various reasons. In terms of the first two you mentioned, Nintendo's price point for both is an insult considering the seeming amount of content there is.
Ōkami;228288024 said:
This. 2017 could of been better than 2016 for the PS4 but with no FF7R and KH3 its hard to see numbers being close to 2016.