I think they've overestimated their ability to met demand by a large amount. Switch shortages aren't exclusive to Japan, and production increases will be split in many directions. I expect Switch to be supply limited past the holidays, as far as exact amounts, I do think they'll get beyond a 30k baseline in the Fall as you say, however I don't expect that Fall baseline to be increased significantly (beyond double) for the holidays, because demand will be great everywhere, so they won't be able to direct extra production to just one place greatly increasing supply. All just my pessimistic guesses, but it does seem being conservative with Switch supply is the way to go from the data we have so far. Certainly a 20-ish to ~40k hardware bump for a major title like ARMs, then back to ~20k doesn't instill much confidence (for making guesses of Switch seeing 200k+ sales for Splatoon 2 week, or beyond 200k sales weekly in the holidays).
_/¯
