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regarding third parties on switch.
Switch is the successor to the WiiU, that's all that needs to be said.
the hardware itself and 1st party games will keep the business flowing and improving for a while.
I don't expect any noticeable 3rd party efforts until around 2019, Q4 2018 at the earliest. I am betting on a Square Enix exclusive at that point.
also, 3rd parties that are in good terms with nintendo are probably green-lighting projects (mostly switch versions of PS4/X1 games) just now, after seeing initial reception.
so yeah, 2017 + Switch + 3rd parties = no
Switch is the successor to the WiiU, that's all that needs to be said.
the hardware itself and 1st party games will keep the business flowing and improving for a while.
I don't expect any noticeable 3rd party efforts until around 2019, Q4 2018 at the earliest. I am betting on a Square Enix exclusive at that point.
also, 3rd parties that are in good terms with nintendo are probably green-lighting projects (mostly switch versions of PS4/X1 games) just now, after seeing initial reception.
so yeah, 2017 + Switch + 3rd parties = no
mickagau33
Member
I don't think DQ and Splatoon can compare. DQ is 30 years old, part of japanese culture and played by everybody : Girls, boys, little kids, 40 something, grandmas ;-)
Splatoon is a new IP released on a new system, with much less broader appeal (even if it is successful)
Don't think they will have much impact on one another (releasing DQ close to a new FF would have been another story...I remember FFIX release date was moved because of DQVI release for instance when square and enix were competiting)
Did we time-travel back to January while I was sleeping or something ?
not sure what you mean.
EDIT: or maybe you took the post too literally?
yeah there's Skyrim, Fifa and some other stuff.
but it's scarce.
I meant, switch being treated like PS4 and X1 puttng everything in there as opposed to putting 1 out 10 games in there like a test to see how it fares.
The "successor to Wii U or 3DS" discussion was something that was very present after the January press conference. I thought we were done with that.
for now, it's the immediate successor to WiiU (I mean there's no other hardware that replaces the wiiu, right?)
and it will most likely also adopt the the 3DS/VITA audience as time goes by, sometime around 2018, so yeah next year we will be able to call it a successor to 3DS too.
wasn't that more or less the consensus?
Honestly, I think this kind of multiplatform release does more harm than good. As a 3DS title, Lady Layton looks too expensive compared to the smartphone version - but at the same time, premium smartphone games that require you to pay a good chunk of money upfront aren't all that popular. I'm getting the impression that the way it's handled neither version is very appealing to either market.
That it's none of them and just the last portable device relevant in Japan (at least when the 3DS will completely die next year) and devs that can't rely on PS4 western sales won't really have a choice but to support it.
Dragon Quest XI's release date was announced on April 11.
Splatoon 2's release date was announced on April 13.
You should ask Nintendo instead.
Because that probably was the last release window to take advantage of the Summer holidays + Obon. Same logic for Splatoon 2, I assume.
I'd be positively shocked if DQXI 3DS version reaches 2 million. I think 1.5 million is the ceiling and there is a possibility that lifetime PS4 will outsell the 3DS version. DQXI 3DS has constantly been behind PS4 version in all retailers, 2DSXL bundles will help for the launch but 3DS sales this year will continue to decline compared to 2016.
I think that even the biggest pessimists on the board about the supply issues should expect Switch to pass 3 million in Japan it's at 1 million right now, with the biggest release and Obon coming up in the next few weeks. Even with supply issues it's going to be over 1.5 million by the end of August. There is MHXX bundles and the promise of larger supply after Splatoon 2 launch.
No doubt December is the month where stock is already allocated and I expect at the very least 1 million to be shipped in Japan for the holidays. For reference during 3DS's first Christmas 1.604.126 systems sold. Even last year you had 589K systems sold and even though the potential audience was extremely saturated with the 3DS being on the market for so long.
There is simply no way between Obon and December you have supply of less than 500K systems. There is SMO launching and a bunch of other games To me even with supply issues Switch will pass 3.4 million this year. If Nintendo can maintain a baseline between September and December of 70K that would lead to 910K.
Like I said earlier I do expect Splatoon 2 to have >80% attachment rate so if you have 3.4 million Switch sales for 2017 and Splatoon 2 maintains this insanely high attach rate it will be over 2.7 million for the year.
I think that even the biggest pessimists on the board about the supply issues should expect Switch to pass 3 million in Japan it's at 1 million right now, with the biggest release and Obon coming up in the next few weeks. Even with supply issues it's going to be over 1.5 million by the end of August. There is MHXX bundles and the promise of larger supply after Splatoon 2 launch.
No doubt December is the month where stock is already allocated and I expect at the very least 1 million to be shipped in Japan for the holidays. For reference during 3DS's first Christmas 1.604.126 systems sold. Even last year you had 589K systems sold and even though the potential audience was extremely saturated with the 3DS being on the market for so long.
There is simply no way between Obon and December you have supply of less than 500K systems. There is SMO launching and a bunch of other games To me even with supply issues Switch will pass 3.4 million this year. If Nintendo can maintain a baseline between September and December of 70K that would lead to 910K.
Like I said earlier I do expect Splatoon 2 to have >80% attachment rate so if you have 3.4 million Switch sales for 2017 and Splatoon 2 maintains this insanely high attach rate it will be over 2.7 million for the year.
OfficerRaichu15
Member
Any leaks yet?
thestopsign
Member
3rd parties are getting as much out of the Switch right now as they are putting in. So far we have a bunch of quick, late ports that have actually done ok for what they are and the context of their release (Dragon Quest Heroes, Ultra Street Fighter 2, Suikoden Collection, Disgaea 5 Complete, etc.). Then you have a few smaller titles that dont post huge numbers in the first place (Lego, Spelunker, Romance of the 3 Kingdoms). Then you have one low budget, but smartly placed original title in Bomberman that has been a good success. We have nothing to go off to assume that 3rd party sales in the future are going to be affected by the Switch in any other way then not being there to take advantage of the dearth of 3rd Party physical releases on the hardware, so far.
I wish it was a suikoden collection
Acting cocky when your Switch predictions were utterly wrong... Not a good look
I never had any issue in admit that my HW Switch predictions were out of place.
I didn't expected the hw concept itself to be so welcomed by the market, honestly.
Instead it did.
Continuing mocking people concerned about third party support, or saying that this kind of situation could bring issues in the mid term, on the otehr hand is actually cocking.
Because I admit the wrong prediction.
While many others continue denying a concerning factual situation.
If you'll be positively shocked seeing DQXI 3DS selling 2M what kind of shock will you have if Splatoon 2 sells 2.7M this year? Because the latter is more improbable than the former.
I said it several weeks ago (when people still hoped that Nintendo had a 200.000 Switch shipment ready for Splatoon 2 launch) that the Switch stock situation is more worrisome than people here think. As of now I don't see them reaching a 3.4 million Switch shipment this year in Japan. They are going to do a big push before Mario Odyssey/holidays but we'll see if it's enough to reach that number. But even if they reach it, Splatoon 2 won't sell more than DQXI (3DS + PS4) this year (Barring a DQ sales disaster).
It's been told to you several times that we're still early in Switch's life to make that kind of prediction. Issues in the mid term for not having third party games in its 6 first months? Come again in holiday 2018 and then we'll talk about the third party situation and the issues in the mid term.
thestopsign
Member
I wish it was a suikoden collection
Whoops, always get the two series confused. Seiken Densetsu
And I've told several times how the other consoles brought as exampels didn't have many more games on the shelves, but MANY MORE already announced
and games that "should" be on Switch in 2018 have been already announced, but only for other consoles.
Let's talk again in holiday 18 when games will start to be announced, to arrive on the market in '19, when the usual number (so far it has been that way) of first party nintendo home console games will have shown how it's hard to sustain interest in an hardware without third party support
There will be several third party games released on Switch in 2018 (maybe even some of those that you say that should be on Switch but are not announced for it right now). And I'm 99% sure that 2019 will have more third party games announced and released for Switch than 2018 too. I can understand some worries when games like Code Vein or Dragon Ball Fighters Z are not announced for Switch right now but extrapolating from there "issues in the mid term" when Switch will have games from the biggest third party series (MH and DQ) is exaggerating too much. And people here have been repeating this to you (and Oregano) several times proving both of you wrong on other topics (Switch HW prediction, Disgaea 5 sales), so no, we're not the cocky ones here ;D
Media Create:
New2DS LL 43,315
Switch 31,906
PS4 28,569
New3DS LL 12,101
PS4 Pro 7,649
Vita 4,655
2DS 1,901
New3DS 1,242
Xbox One 200
Wii U 146
PS3 129
FFXII: 100k
Hey! Pikmin: 65k (ok)
Ever Oasis: 14k (...)
New2DS LL 43,315
Switch 31,906
PS4 28,569
New3DS LL 12,101
PS4 Pro 7,649
Vita 4,655
2DS 1,901
New3DS 1,242
Xbox One 200
Wii U 146
PS3 129
FFXII: 100k
Hey! Pikmin: 65k (ok)
Ever Oasis: 14k (...)
thestopsign
Member
Good week all around for once.
Oh, but then that Ever Oasis number.
Oh, but then that Ever Oasis number.
Sorry, can't see as cocky having opinions and continuing supporting them with tons of words and examples
It's not just Code Vein and DB Fighter Z. It's also the Naruto game, for example.
It is worrying seeing Bandai (I mean: BANDAI, not From Software) announcing manga/anime licensed games, skipping the Switch. They announced a port of a One Piece 3DS game, let's see if the new One Piece game will be also on Switch (the one pre-announced alongside the VR experience). Hopefully it will.
But also the situation concerning MH and DQ is very worrisome. I mean: you act as they are normal, big, main episosed coming out in a proper timelapse compared to the competition. Instead their commercial value in terms of sales but also in terms of Switch perception have been devaluated a lot since their reveal, by SE and Capcom way of handling them.
The Wii U too had MHU3 and DQX, and probably all considered it had them managed in a better way than MHXX and DQXI, don't you think so?
TheLegendaryN
Member
(edit: lol wrong topic)