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Media Create Sales: Week 29, 2017 (Jul 17 - Jul 23)

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Nintendo shipped 840-1120k of Splatoon 2 according to Famitsu. Dengeki or Media Create to the rescue, it could have topped 1m shipments.
 

Anoxida

Member
if switch doesnt outsell 3DS its really looking grim for nintendo. the switch is combining the handheld and console line in one platform.

What's this nonsense? Switch outselling 3ds is going to real hard due to longevity alone. It's not going to have more than 3-4 year cycle most likely. Also Switch selling 15+ m ltd in jap should be considered a huge win in the current market. Only sub 10 should be considered dissapointing really.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Bingo. The point is the platforms WERE competing for both games and consumers.

Handhelds and home consoles (especially in Japan) compete for publisher resources and consumers dollars and time. To say they are completely separate markets is silly (and bizarrely agenda driven)

It's pretty obvious there is no line anymore. DS and PSP were real game changers in Japan.
 
What's this nonsense? Switch outselling 3ds is going to real hard due to longevity alone. It's not going to have more than 3-4 year cycle most likely. Also Switch selling 15+ m ltd in jap should be considered a huge win in the current market. Only sub 10 should be considered dissapointing really.

What ?
Unless switch dies off it going to last more than 4 years .
Even Wii U lasted over 3 years and that system was dead.
 
That's a big shipment for Splatoon 2, a lot of copies in the shelves. I guess not every Switch owner so far wants to be a squid. Fix that stock problem Nintendo!
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
What's this nonsense? Switch outselling 3ds is going to real hard due to longevity alone. It's not going to have more than 3-4 year cycle most likely. Also Switch selling 15+ m ltd in jap should be considered a huge win in the current market. Only sub 10 should be considered dissapointing really.
Why do you assume that? Makes very little sense. Nintendo will milk this with new versions and accessories for dear life. What part they want to the same amount as the Wii makes you think they will cut the lifecycle short.
 

Anoxida

Member
What ?
Unless switch dies off it going to last more than 4 years .
Even Wii U lasted over 3 years and that systems was dead.

My bad should clarify that I think next nintendo console will release within 4 years time, Switch will obviously still be around, but I think ppl will move on quickly to the successor.
 
My bad should clarify that I think next nintendo console will release within 4 years time, Switch will obviously still be around, but I think ppl will move on quickly to the successor.

I agree but it'll depend what kind of successor it is, if it's Switch family similar to 3DS family then most people are going to treat it like the same thing anyway.
 

Anoxida

Member
I agree but it'll depend what kind of successor it is, if it's Switch family similar to 3DS family then most people are going to treat it like the same thing anyway.

Honestly dont see a reason to.go back to the ds family. Docking is the future I honestly suspect sony to follow suit. The technology has tons of room for improvement.
 
Me before splatoon went on sale "Splatoon 2 is going to Bomba"



Then Splatoon 2 goes on sale and Punches me behind the head like "Shut up foo and eat your Crow"

tenor.gif


Well Done Nintendo LOL
You thought it was going to bomb? But... but why?
 
Honestly dont see a reason to.go back to the ds family. Docking is the future I honestly suspect sony to follow suit. The technology has tons of room for improvement.

No I mean if 3 years from now they make a *new* Switch, then sales wise it can still be judged as a platform that lasts 6+ years like the 3DS family.
 

Fiendcode

Member
Monster Hunter Tri was a million seller on Wii and this is the result that I expect for PS4. PS3 only had one million seller (FFXIII) and the PS4 has potentially more (DQXI, MHW, FFVII).

I was bullish on FFVII at first but it is easily one of the most popular game in Japan and I do see a huge buzz for it as it gets closer to launch. It is also PS4 exclusive and by the time it will released (2019-20), PS4 will have a pretty good install base that can manage another million seller.
I can see World matching Tri, but I can also see it doing worse. Wii was a stronger platform than PS4 is now back when Tri happened. Also a little surprising PS4 isn't getting a "warm up" older release before World like Wii did before Tri (G) or 3DS did before 4 (3G). Looking at past precedent XX HD probably should've been a PS4 game.

FFVII seems far enough out that I'm not sure what to make of it. Being split into chapters (I'm assuming a trilogy) likely hurts it's ultimate potential and if it's late enough it might go cross-gen or even pull a Versus.
 

Anoxida

Member
No I mean if 3 years from now they make a *new* Switch, then sales wise it can still be judged as a platform that lasts 6+ years like the 3DS family.

Sure. New nintendo switch or w/e. I dont know though.. my original point was that I dont believe in consoles or handhelds for that matter can break 20 mill in japan anymore. 3ds barely did and look at the fucking library that thing has. I guess Switch might be able to do it with multipleiterations but I doubt it.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
I can see World matching Tri, but I can also see it doing worse. Wii was a stronger platform than PS4 is now back when Tri happened. Also a little surprising PS4 isn't getting a "warm up" older release before World like Wii did before Tri (G) or 3DS did before 4 (3G). Looking at past precedent XX HD probably should've been a PS4 game.

FFVII seems far enough out that I'm not sure what to make of it. Being split into chapters (I'm assuming a trilogy) likely hurts it's ultimate potential and if it's late enough it might go cross-gen or even pull a Versus.

I think World is going to benefit from a very easy to see generational leap and do very well for a console title. Not close to portable, but over a million.
 
Sure. New nintendo switch or w/e. I dont know though.. my original point was that I dont believe in consoles or handhelds for that matter can break 20 mill in japan anymore. 3ds barely did and look at the fucking library that thing has. I guess Switch might be able to do it with multipleiterations but I doubt it.

To be honest I used to argue that 3DS cracking 20million was doubtful unless they introduced a new model. Soon after that they did just that, I like to think I was right but we'll never know for sure.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Sure. New nintendo switch or w/e. I dont know though.. my original point was that I dont believe in consoles or handhelds for that matter can break 20 mill in japan anymore. 3ds barely did and look at the fucking library that thing has. I guess Switch might be able to do it with multipleiterations but I doubt it.

3DS is at 23m and will end close to 24. It's not barely over 20m and didn't have any library that can't be repeated.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
The older analysis, based on Week 25, 2017 numbers / estimates

http://neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=244047822&postcount=427

The brand new, updated analysis as of Week 29, 2017. Now with Western games in the mix!

Up to 21 weeks:

Switch Total Software: 2.600.000
First Party Software: 2.200.000 (86%)

2,1 games per console

First party

Total - 2,190,853

Splatoon 2 - 648,085
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 588,028
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 543,016
1-2 Switch - 233,737
Arms - 177,987

Third Party

Total - 409,147 ± ???* / 356,650**

Super Bomberman R - > 97,123
Dragon Quest Heroes I-II for Nintendo Switch (as of Week 12, 2017) - 41,419
Seiken Densetsu Collection - 37,728 (as of Week 24, 2017)
Ultra Street Fighter II: The Final Challengers (as of Week 22, 2017) - 21,139
Puyo Puyo Tetris S (as of Week 10, 2017) - 17,323
Fate/Extella: The Umbral Star - 10,247 (as of Week 29, 2017)
Minna de Wai Wai! Spelunker (as of Week 16, 2017) - 7,447
Lego City Undercover - 5,351 (as of Week 26, 2017)
Cars 3: Driven to Win - 3,220 (as of Week 29, 2017)

Total known sales - > 240,997 ± ???* / 240,997**

Third party sales still unkown (Disgaea 5: Complete + I am Sestuna + Nobunaga's Ambition: Sphere of Influence with Power Up Kit + Romance of the Three Kingdoms XIII with Power Up Kit + all the other games with weekly sales missing) - < 168,150 ± ???* / 115,653**

How things changed between Week 25, 2017 and Week 29, 2017

First party

Total Week 25, 2017 - > 1,402,903***
Total Week 29, 2017 - 2,190,853

Sales from Week 26, 2017 to Week 29, 2017 - < 787,950

Third party

Total Week 25, 2017 - < 321,097
Total Week 29, 2017 - 409,147 ± ???* / 356,650**

Sales from Week 26, 2017 to Week 29, 2017 - > 88,050 ± ???* / > 35,553**

Known + unknown third party

Total known Week 25, 2017 - < 216,979
Total known Week 29, 2017 - 240,997 ± ???* / 240,997**

Sales from Week 26, 2017 to Week 29, 2017 - 24,018 ± ???* / 24,018**

Total unknown Week 25, 2017 - > 104,118
Total unknown Week 29, 2017 - < 168,150 ± ???* / 115,653**

Sales from Week 26, 2017 to Week 29, 2017 - < 64,032 ± ???* / < 11,535**

First + third party

Total Week 25, 2017 - 1,724,000
Total Week 29, 2017 - 2,600,000* / 2,547,503**

Sales from Week 26, 2017 to Week 29, 2017 - 876,000* / 823,503**

* This is due to the actual first party numbers being off by 10,000 compared to the approximated ones posted by the blog - this means the total software number is approximated; unknown if rounded up or down
** The following numbers are the results of using the actual first party total and the 86% share reported earlier to extrapolate the total software sales; in that case, we get 2,547,503 for total software sales.
*** Added Week 25, 2017's sales for the game at 20th in MC Charts to 1-2 Switch's LTD for Week 24, 2017 in order to get a ceiling

I'll see if an update with Dengeki numbers is necessary once the numbers are out.
 
I can see World matching Tri, but I can also see it doing worse. Wii was a stronger platform than PS4 is now back when Tri happened. Also a little surprising PS4 isn't getting a "warm up" older release before World like Wii did before Tri (G) or 3DS did before 4 (3G). Looking at past precedent XX HD probably should've been a PS4 game.

FFVII seems far enough out that I'm not sure what to make of it. Being split into chapters (I'm assuming a trilogy) likely hurts it's ultimate potential and if it's late enough it might go cross-gen or even pull a Versus.
We need to look at the third party performance on Wii to have an idea. Despite being a sales juggernaut, the Wii was not DS or 3DS in term of third party software. Monster Hunter 3 was the only million seller on the Wii which was from a third party.

So I see no reason to doubt the PS4 which has pretty strong third party sales so far. Persona 5, Nier, Final Fantasy XV have all sold well on the PS4. Dragon Quest XI appears to be next and Monster Hunter World should follow after it.
 

Osukaa

Member
You thought it was going to bomb? But... but why?

LOL I actually didn't but some friends think I hate it since I once said I don't really care about Splatoon in any way. From that day on they remind me of how big it is and I always counter with Pt2 is gonna bomba while full on expecting to eat crow lol :p
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Well, this is probably what happened: Marvelous betted on Splatoon 2's week being a big one for weekly shipments, which translates to more people with a chance of purchasing the platform, which translates to a bigger amount of people potentially interested in other games alongside Splatoon 2, especially if they're brand new releases.

Actually, I believe we have something proving that the increased hardware availability did impact positively Fate / Extella sales: the first day sell-throughs' ranking. IIRC, the blog usually post sell-throughs for brand new releases in debuts' order.

First Day Sell-through {2017.07.20}

[3DS] Layton's Mystery Journey: Katrielle and The Millionaire's Conspiracy <ADV> (Level 5) (¥4.444) - 40%

[PS4] Under Night In-Birth Exe:Latest <FTG> (Arc System Works) (¥6.800) - 50%

[3DS] Sumikko Gurashi: Koko, Dokonan Desu? <ETC> (Nippon Columbia) (¥4.800) - 20% long seller, no worries

[NSW] Fate/Extella: The Umbral Star # <ACT> (Marvelous) (¥7.800) - 30%

[NSW] [PS4] Cars 3: Driven to Win <RCE> (Warner Entertainment Japan) (¥5.700) - 20%

Rabbids Land:

[3DS] Kouekizaidan Houjin Nihon Kanji Nouryoku Kentei Kyoukai: Kanken Training 2 <EDU> (Imagineer) (¥3.800) - 10%

For example, in last week's case, Lady Layton first day numbers > UNIB:EL > Sumikko > Fate / Extella. It's no surprise that Sumikko then kept on selling during the week-end, vastly outselling UNIB:EL: the former is a brand aimed at casual / children, while the latter is a niche core franchise, which can translate to a bigger share of first-day sales for the whole debut week. Fate / Extella, while not niche (the original release surely wasn't niche) is a core franchise, so its post-launch sales usually follow a trend much more similar to UNIB:EL (and the original Fate / Extella didn't exactly excel in terms of post-launch sales)...but, in this case, it was able to vastly outsell Under Night In-Birth in spite of the first day's results.

This probably means that the game picked up some sales thanks to the increased hardware availability + Splatoon 2.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Large shipments at all retailers brought Switch numbers close again between Media Create and Famitsu.

It's clear now big discrepancies have to do with unsteady flow of shipments between stores from Nintendo.
 

boiled goose

good with gravy
We need to look at the third party performance on Wii to have an idea. Despite being a sales juggernaut, the Wii was not DS or 3DS in term of third party software. Monster Hunter 3 was the only million seller on the Wii which was from a third party.

So I see no reason to doubt the PS4 which has pretty strong third party sales so far. Persona 5, Nier, Final Fantasy XV have all sold well on the PS4. Dragon Quest XI appears to be next and Monster Hunter World should follow after it.

Outside of Nintendo games, very few home consoles games reach 1 million sales in Japan.

Ps3 had what? 1 or 2 million sellers? And with ridiculously better support compared to wii

It's not a good standard. Use total third party software.
 

Alrus

Member
We need to look at the third party performance on Wii to have an idea. Despite being a sales juggernaut, the Wii was not DS or 3DS in term of third party software. Monster Hunter 3 was the only million seller on the Wii which was from a third party.

So I see no reason to doubt the PS4 which has pretty strong third party sales so far. Persona 5, Nier, Final Fantasy XV have all sold well on the PS4. Dragon Quest XI appears to be next and Monster Hunter World should follow after it.

You're using Million sellers on Wii as a barometer for third party success then citing games on PS4 that aren't close to a million. I'm not saying your assessment is entirely wrong but be consistent in your examples.

The only million seller on PS4 so far is FFXV. Nier and Persona 5 are big successes for their respective franchises but let's not oversate things.
 
Splatoon 2 did as well as expected. good to see. hope the legs take over and keep it going for many months to come
Good hardware sales too. Sadly will probably have a big drop next week

and poor Ever Oasis . expected but still
 

Portalbox

Member
Posting again here for the new page:

PS4 vs PS3 (PS4 reached 5 millions)
ps4.jpg

Code:
------------------------------------------------------------- 
|    |   PlayStation 3   |   PlayStation 4   |  Difference  | 
|    |    (2006/11/11)   |    (2014/02/22)   |              | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| 
|Week|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |   PS4 - PS3  | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
| 177|   50.448|4.925.582|   29.771|4.935.270|         9.688|
| 178|   38.877|4.964.459|   36.218|4.971.488|         7.029|
| 179|   28.973|4.993.432|   30.878|5.002.366|         8.934|
| 180|   25.590|5.019.022|         |         |              |
| 181|   25.629|5.044.651|         |         |              |
| 182|   32.874|5.077.525|         |         |              |
| 183|   26.185|5.103.710|         |         |              |
| 184|   20.463|5.124.173|         |         |              |
| 185|   19.075|5.143.248|         |         |              |
| 186|   20.987|5.164.235|         |         |              |
| 187|   18.951|5.183.186|         |         |              |
| 187|   17.676|5.200.862|         |         |              |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|

Switch vs 3DS
switch.jpg

Code:
------------------------------------------------------------- 
|    |    Nintendo 3DS   |   Nintendo Switch |  Difference  | 
|    |    (2011/02/26)   |    (2017/03/03)   |              | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| 
|Week|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |   NSW - 3DS  | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
|  19|   30.233|1.188.335|   26.256|1.066.081|      -122.254|
|  20|   22.943|1.211.278|   31.906|1.097.987|      -113.291|
|  21|   46.637|1.257.915|   98.999|1.196.986|       -60.929|
|  22|   31.826|1.289.741|         |         |              |
|  23|   16.415|1.306.156|         |         |              |
|  24|    4.132|1.310.288|         |         |              |
|  25|  196.077|1.506.365|         |         |              |
|  26|  105.639|1.612.004|         |         |              |
|  27|   60.781|1.672.785|         |         |              |
|  28|   54.744|1.727.529|         |         |              |
|  29|   49.076|1.776.605|         |         |              |
|  30|   58.837|1.835.442|         |         |              |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|

MK8 DX vs MK8
kart.jpg

Code:
------------------------------------------------------------- 
|    |   Mario Kart 8    |  Mario Kart 8 DX  |  Difference  | 
|    | [WIU] (2014/05/29)| [NSW] (2017/04/28)|              | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| 
|Week|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   | MK8DX – MK8  | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| 
|  1 |  325.892|  325.892|  284.823|  284.823|       -41.069|
|  2 |   73.051|  398.943|   90.652|  375.475|       -23.468|
|  3 |   42.261|  441.205|   36.440|  411.915|       -29.290| 
|  4 |   28.112|  469.316|   28.781|  440.696|       -28.620| 
|  5 |   23.520|  492.837|   26.993|  467.689|       -25.148|  
|  6 |   19.386|  512.223|   20.984|  488.673|       -23.550|  
|  7 |   15.143|  527.366|   16.596|  505.270|       -22.096|  
|  8 |   14.992|  542.358|   16.822|  522.091|       -20.267|  
|  9 |   18.129|  560.487|   13.545|  535.636|       -24.851| 
| 10 |   18.067|  578.554|   14.423|  550.059|       -28.495| 
| 11 |   20.860|  599.414|   13.436|  563.495|       -35.919| 
| 12 |   28.221|  627.635|   11.554|  575.048|       -52.587| 
| 13 |   12.075|  639.710|   12.980|  588.028|       -51.682| 
| 14 |   11.148|  650.858|         |         |              |
| 15 |    8.221|  659.079|         |         |              |
| 16 |    6.839|  665.918|         |         |              |
| 17 |    6.396|  672.313|         |         |              |
| 18 |    5.936|  678.250|         |         |              |
| 19 |    4.517|  682.767|         |         |              |
| 20 |    3.996|  686.763|         |         |              |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|

I think the work you do is underrated, I love checking your graphs every week! Very informative and puts everything into perspective, it's great how the Switch is slowly catching up with 3DS numbers.
 
21./24. [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition # <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2015.03.19} (¥2.400) - 2.145 / 994.361 <80-100%> (+7%)

-5,639 to 1mln retail

still a little chance to become the first million seller on Sony platforms after FF13


Longest sellers

#1 Brain Training 2 - DS
release week : 2005/12/26
last appearance on Famitsu top 30 : 2008/1/21


#2 Minecraft - PSV
release week : 2015/3/19
last appearance on Famitsu top 30 : 2017/7/17


#3 Brain Training - DS
release week : 2005/5/16
last appearance on Famitsu top 30 : 2007/9/17
 

boiled goose

good with gravy
What's so surprising about that?

While PS4 did not have Japanese support from the start like ps3 did, it was cheaper and launched very successfully in other regions?

After wiiu collspse was clear worldwide, where console japan support would go was pretty obvious, if it was ever in doubt.

Maybe only obvious in hindsight
 
The thing about the PS3 was that it survived for such a long time. It was consistent year after year for another 4 years after this point in the PS4's life. I don't know if Sony waits that long to introduce their next console this time, which could prevent it from reaching the same or a greater total.

The PS3 also had weaker support and harder competition on the frontside of its life between the Wii, DS, PSP, and even 360 was doing ok for an Xbox console. It had almost no competion in the later years. It looks to be the opposite for the PS4, which has had no competition (in Japan) for almost 3 years now besides an out of prime 3DS and the struggling Vita and Wii U. It now is facing the Switch which could be the first system besides mobile to actually drag away resources and player base. It should be interesting because it has strong support for the future still.
 

Kanann

Member
About MH World, currently Capcom has a track record like making good games that doesn't sell too well. So I have a wild bet MHW will be more stella than tri but sell less.

New Marvel v Capcom look like shit tho.
 

ethomaz

Banned
If it keeps the 30k baseline outside of release/holiday weeks, is there even any chance for PS3 to catch-up again?
Depends how long PS4 lives in Japan... if PS5 come and PS4 dies in few years then it won't reach 10m.

Said that PS4 already beat the best PS3 year in sales and 2017 has a good chance to be the peak.
 
What ?
Unless switch dies off it going to last more than 4 years .
Even Wii U lasted over 3 years and that system was dead.

I'm not sure what Nintendo's going to do around the time the PS5 and next xbox are gearing up for release. I think they've put themselves in a position with the Switch currently where it wouldn't be too difficult to port a PS4 game onto it: lower the resolution, maybe run at 30fps instead of 60fps and there's a chance it can run on Switch. Nothing like the huge legwork it took to get a 360/PS3 game up and running on the Wii.

However, it's likely that Sony and Microsoft will release their next systems in what would be the middle of the Switch's life and new games for those systems will be unworkable on a Switch. Is Nintendo going to rely on nothing but 1st party support after 2019 and support the system another 2-3 years? I know 3rd party support has never been great for Nintendo but that would be a very rough position, with the added bonus that the Switch will be perceived as a "last gen" system once the PS5/Xb2 are released. I think it's in their best interest to realign their next system within the ballpark of the PS5 and Xb2 release. I think if Sony and MS put out their next system in 2020, Nintendo's best move is to have their Switch successor ready for the 2nd half of 2021. That would give the Switch a respectable 4.5 year life.
 
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