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Media Create Sales: Week 29, 2017 (Jul 17 - Jul 23)

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Regardless, Peace Walker was not MGS5, Type-0 is not FFXIII, and Birth by Sleep can be whatever it wants (I'm not familiar with Kingdom Hearts), but KHIII is coming out on PS4.
The point is every publisher shifted its resources to handhelds with DS and PSP. They weren't GB or GBA anymore that had been seen as secondary consoles, but as major that took lion's share at both hardware and software sales. You can't expect these systems to belong to a different market from home consoles.
 

Vena

Member
So what's the strategy of releasing Fate/Extella the same week as Splatoon 2

It was for people who enter a store, looking to buy a game with the influx of systems and floor traffic of Splatoon. They see a good game on the shelf but decide that, instead, they'll get this other known-worse game instead.

Mad people! ;)

Also impulse sell to those in the store for Splatoon.

Game certainly nearly doubled my expectations for it...
 
V

Vilix

Unconfirmed Member
This week's Switch sales numbers shows Nintendo purposely held back hardware for this week. I'm sure some were for bundles. But, other than that I don't understand this practice. I mean, if some of those units had shipped earlier in the month people wouldn't have had to line up to get a Switch and Spl2n. They would've just been in line for the game and one less thing to worry about.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Now that a few hours have passed since MC's official numbers have been released: certainly, what happened with Switch's hardware sales is that, sometimes, an excessive amount of informations can cause misguided judgements / early reactions: 100,000 is the amount of units I was expecting at least, and I'm glad to see Switch selling this much. However, now we'll have to see how many units Nintendo will ship in the next few weeks.

And we have DQXI hitting in just a few days, so it'll be interesting to see how both SKUs will sell, as well as PS4 and 3DS themselves. Exciting times ahead!

The blog leaked some software numbers for the Switch (Media Create's leak):

Up to 21 weeks:

Switch Total Software: 2.600.000
First Party Software: 2.200.000 (86%)

2,1 games per console

(Now mpl can calculate again all software)

Oh joy, I'm so happy to have more work to do!

I'll do it in the next few hours :p
 

Jamix012

Member
You realize Splatoon 2 is constrained just by the amount of people who own the system right? The only games that open to multimillion openings anymore are Pokemon and potentially Dragon Quest.

Totally fair, but by the time the system really has enough stock for the game to have a real shot at surpassing Splatoon 1, how hot will Splatoon 2 still be? I'm just saying I'm not convinced it'll be as evergreen as some are making out.

The Switch isn't a failure. Splatoon is the hottest game on the system. What makes you cautious that is has less potential than the WiiU game?

Come to Japan for one day. Look around. We are in the middle of Splatoon fever here. It is so much more pronounced than even at the peak of the first game.


I think you are correct on the drop next week. The install base is just too low to keep up good numbers. But this is likely going to be an evergreen title on the Switch and it's sales numbers will likely be very dependent on the sales of hardware.

I don't mean to put down your opinions. And I hope I don't come off as a jerk. But I need to know what you are basing your opinions on. If you also live here in Japan and you are seeing the hype differently, I will disagree, but respect that opinion. But if it's "just a feeling" I'm going to need something a little bit more.

I mean, and I don't mean to put down your opinions either, but your experience in Japan is anecdotal. Useful in some scenarios but it's hard to argue that it's good as a basis for for an overall picture. I would love to visit Japan though...

My general feelings aren't better than anecdotal evidence by any means, true, but that's why we have discussions on such things =) In terms of where my feelings come from, I'm basing it mostly on what Splatoon 2 is when compared to its predecessor. It's very much an iterative sequel on something that was a cultural phenomenon. I think the best comparison to recent games would be that Splatoon 1 is like Yokai Watch 2 with Splatoon 2 being like Yokai Watch 2: Psychic Specters (the third version)

Yokai Watch 1 and 2 were launched in such a way that they both rode the same phenomenon, which caught on because of the anime early in YW1's life. By the time the third version of YW2 came out, it opened similarly to YW2 base games, but the tail was cut off. Still sold really well, but as an iterative addition to YW2 and released after the main wave of "hype" for the previous titles, it failed to reach YW2's LTD.

I'm not saying Splatoon 2 is an expanded version of Splatoon 1, but it very much is an iterative sequel of a game that had an explosion in popularity and is releasing relatively (at least when compared to most Ninty sequels) close to its predecessor. I still think it will do well, but I'm not convinced that it will be significantly over the 1st.

Splatoon 2 will sell along side Switch hardware for at least the next year. Even if it doesn't end up with a FW being only 10% of the total sales like the original in Japan, that doesn't mean it won't be a phenomenon. Next weeks drop is going to be big no matter how you slice it due to a lack of install base, but it will still be selling at least 20k a week in October. It will outsell the original Splatoon this year in any scenario that Nintendo ships 3+ million Switches.

I could see this being the case, but I'm not convinced there will be enough stock before Mario Odyssey comes out to really give Spla2n a significant lead over Spla1n.
 
There you go, damn PS4, pooping the party again with that 5M milestone when this week should have been only about dancing around Splatoon 2 and Switch sales :(

Therefore I'll repeat myself from the other thread since the fun is here, but I think almost no other console took longer to reach the first million in Japan than the PS4, so the machine has definitly recovered nicely here. The fact it reached 5 million just before PS3 is always a good sign and the PS4 continue to be up YoY, including the week where it was all about squids. Everyone here know that the last home console, the Wii U, died before 3,5M, despite being from the most beloved firm in Japan.

I don't know about the next 5M though, in Japan there is so much period of drought and a lot of uncertainty about games potential when you are a non-Nintendo console. While western games are taking more and more presence in Japan (dat Witcher 3 eating most of recent JRPG), it is crucial for the japanese studios to deliver more huge PS4 games like DQXI, Monster Hunter World and Kingdom Hearts III, allowing the machine to reach those 10M.

Unlike the Wii U, the Switch is safe by its hybrid nature and will have all the million sellers it wants in Japan (Zelda, Mario, Splatoon, Fire Emblem, Pokemon, Animal Crossing...), so unless people want a "market" where only one platform holder exists, the PS4 has to be supported... and maybe even celebrated ;)
 

OryoN

Member
Go Splatoon!

Not very excited about Switch sales' implication, except for seeing that the thrist is still there. This was after stock was trickling out at ~25k weekly, and I'm weary of the thing going damn near non-existent again, holding back Splatoon 2 in the process.

What are the chances of Switch stock stabilizing @ around 40k/week? I'm sure they would sellout at even 50k/week(expecially now the squids are loosed), if Nintendo could produce that many.
 
I would have a hard time making such predictions years ago, so I assume I'm not concerned by his claim.

You are on a mission today to tell how the PS4 isn't doing good, great, amazing or whatever. PS4 does fine, good, maybe very good. Context matters.
Also, iirc, software sales are above the PS3 ones at the same time frame.
 
Peak Media Create threads will be when Monster Hunter World launches lol

I don't remember anyone saying PS4 would be the next PS2 in Japan as Chris says. Even if there were some, the far bigger notion was the PS4 would be notably down from PS3. This idea was constant, even earlier this year, so PS4 exceeding such expectations and doing better than its predecessor is significant. I mean any console doing better than its predecessor is significant in Japan right now.
 
Totally fair, but by the time the system really has enough stock for the game to have a real shot at surpassing Splatoon 1, how hot will Splatoon 2 still be? I'm just saying I'm not convinced it'll be as evergreen as some are making out.

Are we expecting Splatoon 2 to burn out by the end of the year?

Peak Media Create threads will be when Monster Hunter World launches lol

I'm so ready for this.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
PS4 is doing..ok.

Its not a flop like some people want it to be

Its not really a success hardware wise like some people want it to be

But...it has succeeded in getting huge Japanese support which is what Sony really cares about anyways, so not sure what the arguments are about.
 

LordKano

Member
You are on a mission today to tell how the PS4 isn't doing good, great, amazing or whatever. PS4 does fine, good, maybe very good. Context matters.

Well, sorry for ruining your mood by not agreeing with you and explaining why in the two unique threads talking about this matter. Now if you'll excuse me, my mission is still ongoing and my captain need results.
 
I still firmly believe that unlike the PS3, PS4 will actually remain steady in term of console sales. Main reason is lack of competition in dedicated market. There is no PSP, DS, or Wii so we are likely going to see either just PS4 exclusives for large budget technically ambitious AAA games or PS4/Switch for medium to small scale games and this will also help the PS4 in keeping the momentum.
 

DNF

Member
This week's Switch sales numbers shows Nintendo purposely held back hardware for this week. I'm sure some were for bundles. But, other than that I don't understand this practice. I mean, if some of those units had shipped earlier in the month people wouldn't have had to line up to get a Switch and Spl2n. They would've just been in line for the game and one less thing to worry about.

Is it possible that they didn't actually hold units back,
but instead just allocated units that would have shipped (6 weeks later ?) to us and europe ?
 

dracula_x

Member
Passed 5 million.

Ethomaz kicked the hornet nest.

giphy.gif


^ is that Ethomaz on this gif? :)
 

sense

Member
it is actually quite funny going back and reading some old threads lol. there was a whole lot of concern/doom and gloom from a lot of people cough mpl90 cough about the lack of software announcements from japanese publishers for ps4 but now it has turned to please don't doom and gloom switch and its lack of software support yet.
 

MTC100

Banned
10./08. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild # <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥6.980) - 5.989 / 543.016 (-15%)

qXrJUGc.gif
It hurts to see the best game in history failing to convince people to buy it for their Switch. Here's to hoping people will eventually pick it up once the Splatoon hype goes down. (never I guess...)
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
It hurts to see the best game in history failing to convince people to buy it for their Switch. Here's to hoping people will eventually pick it up once the Splatoon hype goes down. (never I guess...)

Its doing extremely well for the franchise.
 

LordKano

Member
You are not ruining anything, buddy.

Everything is fine then.

it is actually quite funny going back and reading some old threads lol. there was a whole lot of concern/doom and gloom from a lot of people cough mpl90 cough about the lack of software announcements from japanese publishers for ps4 but now it has turned to please don't doom and gloom switch and its lack of software support yet.

*Summons mpl90's list that shows how Switch has already more jpn 3rd party software announced than PS4's FY despite being only four months old*
 
Totally fair, but by the time the system really has enough stock for the game to have a real shot at surpassing Splatoon 1, how hot will Splatoon 2 still be? I'm just saying I'm not convinced it'll be as evergreen as some are making out.

Here's the thing, Splatoon 2 is already getting twice the content releases than Splatoon 1 did. In a country where the Wii U amount is less than 3 million, they had legs to get to at least 1.6 million. The Switch is a console that Nintendo will keep producing units for.

It'll surpass Splatoon 1 one way or another. Like you literally sound like a guy who doubted Splatoon 1 would have any appeal to make it past 1 million worldwide even.

(It will also not stop people from buying the game sans a Switch that they will buy later on either)
 
Splatoon 2 did well, but I don't know. I don't feel it will be the cultural phenomenon in Japan that Splatoon 1 was. It will have some legs, but less than its predecessor.

When Splatoon 1 released many had the feeling it will be a flop.

Surprised from Fate/Extella, given how old the game is and already released on other platforms I expected sales in the lower 4digits, over 10.000 is unexpected.
 
it is actually quite funny going back and reading some old threads lol. there was a whole lot of concern/doom and gloom from a lot of people cough mpl90 cough about the lack of software announcements from japanese publishers for ps4 but now it has turned to please don't doom and gloom switch and its lack of software support yet.
Indeed there was a serious lack of support which cast doubt by some people. But right now? PS4 is honestly easily the best system to own if you want to play every upcoming Japanese game from a third party.

I also own a Switch and I think it is a great piece of hardware for Nintendo games and Indies as well. However I have trouble believing it can get the same third party support especially when the hardware is considered weaker.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
It was for people who enter a store, looking to buy a game with the influx of systems and floor traffic of Splatoon. They see a good game on the shelf but decide that, instead, they'll get this other known-worse game instead.

Mad people! ;)

Also impulse sell to those in the store for Splatoon.

Game certainly nearly doubled my expectations for it...

Well, this is probably what happened: Marvelous betted on Splatoon 2's week being a big one for weekly shipments, which translates to more people with a chance of purchasing the platform, which translates to a bigger amount of people potentially interested in other games alongside Splatoon 2, especially if they're brand new releases.
 
It hurts to see the best game in history failing to convince people to buy it for their Switch. Here's to hoping people will eventually pick it up once the Splatoon hype goes down. (never I guess...)

It already sold more in Japan than most expected, given the Zelda sales history there. The western audience loves Link much more.
 

Salvadora

Member
How does Fate/Extella compare to it's debut on other platforms?

Edit: found it:
01./00. [PSV] Fate/Extella: The Umbral Star # <ACT> (Marvelous) {2016.11.10} (¥6.980) - 73.019 / NEW
02./00. [PS4] Fate/Extella: The Umbral Star # <ACT> (Marvelous) {2016.11.10} (¥7.980) - 67.356 / NEW
06./00. [PS4] Fate/Extella: The Umbral Star - Velber Box {PlayStation 4 \ PlayStation Vita} <ACT> (Marvelous) {2016.11.10} (¥19.990) - 18.439 / NEW
 

heringer

Member
This week's Switch sales numbers shows Nintendo purposely held back hardware for this week. I'm sure some were for bundles. But, other than that I don't understand this practice. I mean, if some of those units had shipped earlier in the month people wouldn't have had to line up to get a Switch and Spl2n. They would've just been in line for the game and one less thing to worry about.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safety_stock

It's pretty standard to keep safety stock for increased hikes in demand. Heck, there are even formulas to calculate how much of your stock you should save.

There are plenty of reasons for that. One of them is that having a few customers frustrated every week is not as bad as having a lot of customers frustrated all at once. When a big release like Splatoon 2 is out, people tend to want the device right away and are more prone to be pissed at the seller if they can't get it. Sine the demand is not going to be met either way, it's better to dilute the stock according to the demand.
 
V

Vilix

Unconfirmed Member
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safety_stock

It's pretty standard to keep safety stock for increased hikes in demand. Heck, there are even formulas to calculate how much of your stock you should save.

There are plenty of reasons for that. One of them is that having a few customers frustrated every week is not as bad as having a lot of customers frustrated all at once. When a big release like Splatoon 2 is out, people tend to want the device right away and are more prone to be pissed at the seller if they can't get it. Sine the demand is not going to be met either way, it's better to dilute the stock according to the demand.

Interesting. My thinking has always been get as many of them out there as soon as possible. That way people are already playing with it and building the hype amongst their friends and family.
 
Interesting. My thinking has always been get as many of them out there as soon as possible. That way people are already playing with it and building they hype amongst their friends and family.
I mean, realistically speaking them putting out absolutely any stock they had every week would only increase the number of sales by less than 10k per. Might as well have a safety stock for that when the Splatoonami comes barreling into the mainland.
 
Fantastic start for splatoon 2 and I fully expect it to have great legs as well. It's amazing how quickly splatoon has become one of Nintendos biggest franchises (and could potentially end up being Nintendos biggest outright in Japan this gen). A new IP launching towards the end of the wii Us life span which was a total failure of a product. It was also a genre which Nintendo isn't really know for. Here we are just a few years later and splatoon has become one of Nintendos biggest franchises.

100K switches in 1 week is pretty good. Hopefully we can see supply stay a little higher than the last month or 2. 30K just isn't enough. Hoping we can see closer to 50K becoming the regular shipment but I realise that is optimistic.

I still firmly believe that unlike the PS3, PS4 will actually remain steady in term of console sales. Main reason is lack of competition in dedicated market. There is no PSP, DS, or Wii so we are likely going to see either just PS4 exclusives for large budget technically ambitious AAA games or PS4/Switch for medium to small scale games and this will also help the PS4 in keeping the momentum.

Not sure what you mean because the PS3 actually had fairly steady sales later in its life. I agree though that PS4 has surpassed almost people's expectations this year and is performing quite well at the moment. I think it has a good chance at matching or slightly exceeding the PS3's life time sales. It won't be a huge success but it's not terrible either. It certainly looked like things could be a lot worse at the start of this gen.
 
Next week seems set to be massive both from a HW and SW perspective. I'm wondering when is the last time we saw a week that big outside of the holidays.

These last few pages are cringeworthy to read. Chances are if you're calling out someone else as a fanboy or untold 'people' for their bias you're most likely a fanboy yourself. It's pretty obvious which posters have a preference for which console and it's painful watching them call each other out.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
it is actually quite funny going back and reading some old threads lol. there was a whole lot of concern/doom and gloom from a lot of people cough mpl90 cough about the lack of software announcements from japanese publishers for ps4 but now it has turned to please don't doom and gloom switch and its lack of software support yet.

I feel it's better to answer to this post, I just don't want to appear like someone who's not ready to assume his own "responsibilities".

So...yes, it's true that you'll find several posts of mine being concerned about PS4's support from Japanese developers, especially before the console released due to how things were looking after E3 2013's major announcements. And honestly I kinda regret some of the posts I made in that period: even if I wanted to look at PS4's situation from a decently unbiased point of view, the surprising (to me at the time) lack of enough support appeared to me more concerning than what I thought in the long run. But years have passed, more time spent in sales threads / looking at historical and recent numbers, basically getting more experience to discuss about sales...all of this made me a (hopefully) better sales-ager, less biased than before. That's why I'm looking at the Switch's support situation differently than PS4's back then, by brining in a more detailed and analytical look at early announcements / early support for different recent platforms - because context is extremely relevant.

Still, it needs to be said that Switch and PS4 presented far different initial sales trends, which is also why several users (don't remember exactly who, but I suppose I was among them as well) became more worried about Japanese's support as post-launch sales went by: I don't think we need to remember how awful and incredibly front-loaded PS4 sales have been in its first year. PS4 wasn't just a mediocre-selling console, it was an historically low selling console, and even if Western sales were already great at those times, it wasn't out-of-the-ordinary to be worried about less Western-focused (or even general) support for the system, especially from specific developers.

So, yes: different situations, but I still partially regret my behaviour on the matter.

Hopefully this is clear enough.
 

boiled goose

good with gravy
The point is every publisher shifted its resources to handhelds with DS and PSP. They weren't GB or GBA anymore that had been seen as secondary consoles, but as major that took lion's share at both hardware and software sales. You can't expect these systems to belong to a different market from home consoles.

Bingo. The point is the platforms WERE competing for both games and consumers.

Handhelds and home consoles (especially in Japan) compete for publisher resources and consumers dollars and time. To say they are completely separate markets is silly (and bizarrely agenda driven)
 
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