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[BKK]

So given the Japanese centric nature of these threads, what do you think about the chances of success of the Switch there?
As a handheld it doesn't seem very attractive, it's too big, the design is not kid friendly and it has lost the dual screen and 3D effect present in the 3DS, battery life is rumored to be poor (and let's consider false the rumor that it has no touch features as well...)
Price will also likely be around 30.000 yen while a sub 20.000 yen price just won't happen.
As a product it seems to cater to core gamers interested in having a unified Nintendo console but the system doesn't seem to build on the traditional strengths of a Nintendo handheld which is what usually brings the big sales in Japan.
Thoughts?

I'm assuming that there will be a true handheld variant released later (along with a cheaper console only variant). But yeah, I'm not really seeing the mass appeal of it's hybrid variant. It's convoluted, and isn't particularly well suited as a shared family console where the portability aspect would deprive other family members of the use of it. In it's portable form it's pretty cumbersome. Jack of all trades, master of none.

Nintendo's share price is down pretty heavily following the announcement.

 

[ULTROS!]

I wonder what will happen if Switch will only do as much as the Wii U...

 

[casiopao]

Part of me says it might be a slightly hard sell to some more casual players and it might hinder them somewhat, then another part of me says it will have the next Monster Hunter, Splatoon, Mario kart and Pokémon so I'm sure it will be fine.

I agree here that it seems that it won't be as easy sell as 3DS or DS here but it also will be a more desirable product to the hardcore fans in Japan if you ask me. At least, i can see them having a more hardcore fans buying this product.

 

[casiopao]

I wonder what will happen if Switch will only do as much as the Wii U...

Guess, it is the time for Nintendo to move to mobile then. Or just keep making new handheld/console with crazy gimmicks and hoped for a success.^_^

Edit: Meh dopost.T_T

 

[BriBri]

I think it's too early to speculate on the success of the Nintendo Switch. If Monster Hunter 5 is an exclusive and Dragon Quest XI isn't released after the other versions then I'd definitely feel more positive but only time will tell.

 

[duckroll]

Do you like the idea of Switch?

I love it. Getting one day one for Zelda.

 

[Man God]

I think it's going to do well in Japan. That might mean at the end of the day slightly worse than the 3DS due to the shrinking dedicated console market. I think it will be the focus of the domestic dedicated market though without a doubt, and probably as soon as the end of next year.

 

[Aostia]

Seems to big and pricey for japan
Games and a possible portable only hw revision would be crucial for japan imho

 

[Man God]

It's not that much bigger than the Vita really.

 

[Aostia]

It's not that much bigger than the Vita really.

Isnt exactly promising for its commercial success

 

[crinale]

How much the software cost would determine the degree of success.
Higher unit cost may drive some ppl away but would also attract third parties.

 

[duckroll]

I don't really think anyone can give an honest assessment of how well it could do in Japan right now. I mean, we can guess but it's kinda pointless. Markets don't automatically accept or reject products based on one or two factors. Some factors may be in favor, but in the end it comes down to what the overall platform has to offer and what the barrier of entry is. How much does it cost? What games are there? Are games being designed for it as a portable or as a console? What is the pricing on the games like? How well does it actually work as a portable in terms of practical use? All questions we have no answers to.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Isnt exactly promising for its commercial success

And we know the standard 3DS outsold the XL...oh wait it didnt.

We are living in an era were the standard phone screen is like 5 Inch at least. Switch is supposed to be an upgrade from smartphonegame - so having a a little bigger screen is expected.

Portable units have been getting larger every generation - its kinda expected at this point. The small 3DS screen was a disappointment for people in 2011. Vita was fine with 5 inches 4 years ago - Switch is the next step.

I think it's too early to speculate on the success of the Nintendo Switch. If Monster Hunter 5 is an exclusive and Dragon Quest XI isn't released after the other versions then I'd definitely feel more positive but only time will tell.

Not really - Nintendo first party IPs are bigger than MH anyway. Who knows how much portable Splatoon will be able to sell over a generation. The only reasons Switch could fail if Japan decides it doesnt care anymore about new Nintendo games and is happy with mobile/3DS.

Also i doubt there will be staggered launches for the DQ XI versions - they will release all 3 at ones.

 

[hiska-kun]

So, finally it's time for Capcom to announce that Monster Hunter game that has to sell 2 million units by the end of March 2017.

Spoiler

For Switch & 3DS, of course

 

[dracula_x]

It's not that much bigger than the Vita really.

2-2.5x bigger, at least

 

[horuhe]

Rakuten Books Sales Ranking (2016.10.20)

01./00. [3DS] Mario Party: Star Rush <ETC> (Nintendo)
02./00. [PS4] NBA 2K17 <SPT> (Take-Two Interactive)
03./01. [3DS] Monster Hunter Stories <RPG> (Capcom)
04./00. [PSV] RecoLove: Gold Beach <ADV> (Kadokawa Games)
05./00. [PSV] Macross &#916; Scramble (RunPika Sound Edition) <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games)
06./00. [PSV] RecoLove: Blue Ocean <ADV> (Kadokawa Games)
07./00. [PS3] NBA 2K17 <SPT> (Take-Two Interactive)
08./04. [WiiU] Minecraft: Wii U Edition <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios)
09./02. [PS4] Persona 5 <RPG> (Atlus)
10./00. [PSV] Idol Death Game TV <ADV> (D3Publisher)

Rakuten Books Pre-Orders Ranking (2016.10.20)

01./01. [PS4] Battlefield 1 <ACT> (Electronic Arts)
02./03. [3DS] Pokémon Moon <RPG> (Pokémon Co.)
03./02. [3DS] Pokémon Sun <RPG> (Pokémon Co.)
04./06. [PS4] Sword Art Online: Hollow Realization <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games)
05./04. [PS4] Final Fantasy XV <RPG> (Square Enix)

 

[Sterok]

So how's the initial reaction to Switch in Japan? I assume they're excited for Splatoon, but are they seeing it as a handheld, console, or something different?

 

[BriBri]

Not really - Nintendo first party IPs are bigger than MH anyway. Who knows how much portable Splatoon will be able to sell over a generation. The only reasons Switch could fail if Japan decides it doesnt care anymore about new Nintendo games and is happy with mobile/3DS.

Also i doubt there will be staggered launches for the DQ XI versions - they will release all 3 at ones.

My point was that Nintendo first party is a certainty. It's (select) third party that can make a difference.

 

[mao2]

PSVR sold 52K units (PS Camera bundle 41K, stand-alone 11K). Sell-through is over 90% and supply was unable to meet demand. There are 2 PSVR exclusive titles released in retail [PlayStation VR Worlds and RIGS Machine Combat League]. Both have a high sell-through of 70~90%, but total copies sold was only 9,000. However, with over 20 titles including demos available [on PS Store] at launch, it is believed that early adopters mostly bought these digital titles instead.
http://www.m-create.com/ranking/

&#12300;PlayStation VR&#12301;&#12399;&#21512;&#35336;5.2&#19975;&#21488;&#65288;PlayStation Camera&#21516;&#26801;&#29256;4.1&#19975;&#21488;&#12289;&#12300;PS VR&#12301;&#21336;&#20307;1.1&#19975;&#21488;&#65289;&#12434;&#36009;&#22770;&#12290;&#28040;&#21270;&#29575;&#12399;90&#65285;&#20197;&#19978;&#12391;&#12289;&#38656;&#35201;&#12395;&#20379;&#32102;&#12364;&#36861;&#12356;&#20184;&#12356;&#12390;&#12356;&#12394;&#12356;&#29366;&#27841;&#12392;&#12394;&#12387;&#12390;&#12356;&#12427;&#12290;VR&#23554;&#29992;&#12479;&#12452;&#12488;&#12523;&#12398;&#12497;&#12483;&#12465;&#12540;&#12472;&#29256;&#12399;2&#12479;&#12452;&#12488;&#12523;&#12364;&#30330;&#22770;&#12290;&#20001;&#12479;&#12452;&#12488;&#12523;&#12392;&#12418;&#28040;&#21270;&#29575;7&#65374;9&#21106;&#12392;&#39640;&#12356;&#12418;&#12398;&#12398;&#12289;&#21512;&#12431;&#12379;&#12390;0.9&#19975;&#26412;&#12398;&#36009;&#22770;&#12395;&#12392;&#12393;&#12414;&#12387;&#12383;&#12290;&#19968;&#26041;&#12391;&#12289;&#30330;&#22770;&#26085;&#12395;&#37197;&#20449;&#12373;&#12428;&#12383;VR&#23554;&#29992;&#12467;&#12531;&#12486;&#12531;&#12484;&#12399;&#12487;&#12514;&#12434;&#21547;&#12417;20&#12479;&#12452;&#12488;&#12523;&#20197;&#19978;&#12392;&#20805;&#23455;&#12375;&#12390;&#12362;&#12426;&#12289;&#21021;&#26399;&#12518;&#12540;&#12470;&#12540;&#12399;&#36984;&#25246;&#32930;&#12398;&#22810;&#12356;&#12480;&#12454;&#12531;&#12525;&#12540;&#12489;&#12479;&#12452;&#12488;&#12523;&#20013;&#24515;&#12398;&#36092;&#20837;&#12392;&#12394;&#12387;&#12383;&#12392;&#24605;&#12431;&#12428;&#12427;&#12290;

 

[mao2]

2-2.5x bigger, at least

This thing won't fit into anyone's pocket, it's gonna bomb.

 

[lherre]

For Mpl90:

As you can see my hybrid theories were good when we talked about it

I think the price will be the big barrier but we will see how will be. The concepto could be cool but really difficult to sell.

But I think the trailer reveal is very very good. One of the best lately coming from Nintendo.

 

[ZSaberLink]

I still feel like there's a "handheld" console (whether it's this or something different) in the works. The Switch reminds me of a larger tablet that's very multi-purpose, but mostly meant for the home and going to parties and the like. On the other hand, I think we haven't seen what I think would essentially be the "phone" version of this. Something that's cheap, plays mobile games along with Nintendo's finest portable games, actually has a good battery life, etc.

 

[mao2]

Japan is getting Digimon World: Next Order International Edition for PS4 in 2017. It's basically the overseas version with enhanced graphics and other additional content.
http://www.gamer.ne.jp/news/201610210053/

 

[Chris1964]

Isnt exactly promising for its commercial success

After DSi LL and 3DS LL it should be obvious by now size is a factor that works the other way around.

 

[Mpl90]

For Mpl90:

As you can see my hybrid theories were good when we talked about it

I think the price will be the big barrier but we will see how will be. The concepto could be cool but really difficult to sell.

But I think the trailer reveal is very very good. One of the best lately coming from Nintendo.

I did it already months ago, but well, serving to myself another good dish of crows can't be that bad, right?

I agree on the reveal trailer: the production values and the pace were very, very nice.

 

[Oregano]

So, finally it's time for Capcom to announce that Monster Hunter game that has to sell 2 million units by the end of March 2017.

Spoiler

For Switch & 3DS, of course

Apparently not until next year lol

 

[Mpl90]

Apparently not until next year lol

Going by Matt's words, maybe we won't have to wait that long XD

 

[casiopao]

As long as NX can have a good stream of software after it's launch, i had hardtime picturing NS doing a Wii U here.

 

[Gemeanie]

PSVR sold 52K units (PS Camera bundle 41K, stand-alone 11K). Sell-through is over 90% and supply was unable to meet demand. There are 2 PSVR exclusive titles released in retail [PlayStation VR Worlds and RIGS Machine Combat League]. Both have a high sell-through of 70~90%, but total copies sold was only 9,000. However, with over 20 titles including demos available [on PS Store] at launch, it is believed that early adopters mostly bought these digital titles instead.
http://www.m-create.com/ranking/

Sony expects hundreds of thousand sales but only allocated 50K+ for Japan? Console gaming and VR confirmed dead in Japan

Spoiler

 

[Chris1964]

So, finally it's time for Capcom to announce that Monster Hunter game that has to sell 2 million units by the end of March 2017.

Spoiler

For Switch & 3DS, of course

In a week they have 2nd Quarter Financial Results and they'll likely reveal the platforms for Monster Hunter. Now that Switch is revealed there is no reason anymore to keep the systems for it a secret.

 

[casiopao]

In a week they have 2nd Quarter Financial Results and they'll likely reveal the platforms for Monster Hunter. Now that Switch is revealed there is no reason anymore to keep the systems for it a secret.

Lets said it is MH5 exclusively on Switch. Is it possible to reach 2 milion sales number here?

 

[Orgen]

Lets said it is MH5 exclusively on Switch. Is it possible to reach 2 milion sales number here?

Which console/Handheld has sold 2 million on its first month? (and that'd mean a 100% attach rate for MH5).

No chance in hell.

 

[Mario007]

Which console/Handheld has sold 2 million on its first month? (and that'd mean a 100% attach rate for MH5).

No chance in hell.

I know your question was toungue in cheek, but PS4 sold 1 million in 24 hours in one region.

 

[duckroll]

I know your question was toungue in cheek, but PS4 sold 1 million in 24 hours in one region.

Is this region one where demand for Monster Hunter is extremely high?

 

[cheesekao]

I know your question was toungue in cheek, but PS4 sold 1 million in 24 hours in one region.

Canada weeps in the distance.

 

[casiopao]

Which console/Handheld has sold 2 million on its first month? (and that'd mean a 100% attach rate for MH5).

No chance in hell.

Is the sales target on this new MH only for Japan or WW? If WW i can see it reach that number here. But i am not sure lol.

 

[Oregano]

Obviously you've missed that Monster Hunter is the Wii Sports of Switch. Nintendo wants everyone to git gud.

 

[Chris1964]

It's not MH5 and apparently it's not only on Switch with this forecast.

 

[Orgen]

I know your question was toungue in cheek, but PS4 sold 1 million in 24 hours in one region.

Did it sell 2 million in that month? (Curious question, I think it didn't reach that number due to being supply constrained).

And that region wasn't Japan and it was a looooong time ago, so... If Capcom expects to sell 2 million for a Monster Hunter title it should appear at least on 3DS unless they are going back to crazyville with their predictions and get another SFV situation on their hands.

Is the sales target on this new MH only for Japan or WW? If WW i can see it reach that number here. But i am not sure lol.

So now you're expecting a simultaneous WW release for a Monster Hunter game? Yeah, about that...

PS: In all fairness Pokemon is now doing them (WW releases) so Monster Hunter could do it too. But I don't think it´s going to happen.

 

[Fisico]

Is the sales target on this new MH only for Japan or WW? If WW i can see it reach that number here. But i am not sure lol.

Well which game in the series had the closest western release compared to Japan and how long did it take ?

 

[Oregano]

Well which game in the series had the closest western release compared to Japan and how long did it take ?

4 Ultimate about four months? I might be misremembering.

 

[casiopao]

So now you're expecting a simultaneous WW release for a Monster Hunter game? Yeah, about that...

PS: In all fairness Pokemon is now doing them (WW releases) so Monster Hunter could do it too. But I don't think it´s going to happen.

Well.......Capcom can maybe try? I mean, West seems to be really happy with MH now and that extra sales from the West will be helpful for them to reach the target.

Well which game in the series had the closest western release compared to Japan and how long did it take ?

I mean, MH Gen comes here much faster this time and it sees great numbers so i am thinking who knows if Capcom this time will focus on both version at the same time to make it launch together at the same time to reach that 2 mill.

 

[crinale]

If NS were to be released at Jan, 2017 then I'd say that 2 million thing is MH5 for NS. However NS being released in March makes it kinda difficult (we also have to assume March 1st launch isn't guaranteed either).
Only other explanation I can guess is MHX-G for 3DS. However if that's the case then MH5 for NS will be a bit far away than ppl are hoping.

p.s. If you want to insist Capcom stated there won't be MHX-G, they say that every time, so..

 

[cheesekao]

I mean, MH Gen comes here much faster this time and it sees great numbers so i am thinking who knows if Capcom this time will focus on both version at the same time to make it launch together at the same time to reach that 2 mill.

MHGen came out 7 months after Japan got it so no, it came out slower than MH4G(4 months).

Secondly, source? Last I heard from the NPD threads, MHGen performed lower than MH4G in its first month and tanked in its second month.

 

[Aostia]

Going by Matt's words, maybe we won't have to wait that long XD

where?

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Going by Matt's words, maybe we won't have to wait that long XD

?

 

[hiska-kun]

If NS were to be released at Jan, 2017 then I'd say that 2 million thing is MH5 for NS. However NS being released in March makes it kinda difficult (we also have to assume March 1st launch isn't guaranteed either).
Only other explanation I can guess is MHX-G for 3DS. However if that's the case then MH5 for NS will be a bit far away than ppl are hoping.

p.s. If you want to insist Capcom stated there won't be MHX-G, they say that every time, so..

MHX-G for 3DS/NS is what makes more sense. If it was exclusive for 3DS, why did Capcom wait so long to announce it? Of course only NS makes impossible to meet the 2 million sales. That's why both is the most logical.

 

[Kresnik258]

First Day Sell-Through {2016.10.20}

[PSV] Macross &#916; Scramble # <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥6.100) - 30%

[PSV] RecoLove: Blue Ocean / Gold Beach <ADV> (Kadokawa Games) (¥6.980) - 40%

[PS4] [PS3] NBA 2K17 # <SPT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) (¥6.800) (¥5.800) - 30%

[PSV] Idol Death Game TV <ADV> (D3Publisher) (¥6.800) - 30%

Rabbids Land

[3DS] Mario Party: Star Rush <ETC> (Nintendo) (¥4.700) - 10%

____

Bomba week? Well, there's still Battlefield 1, just released today.

Bomba week indeed, crikey. Vita owners weren't interested in any of these games lol.

 

[Chris1964]

21./00. [3DS] LEGO Star Wars: The Force Awakens <ADV> (Warner Entertainment Japan) {2016.10.13} (¥4.700)
22./00. [PS4] RIGS: Mechanized Combat League |PlayStation VR| <ACT> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2016.10.13} (¥6.900)
23./21. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf [Nintendo Selects] <ETC> (Nintendo) {2016.03.17} (¥2.700)
24./19. [3DS] Pokemon Omega Ruby / Alpha Sapphire <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2014.11.21} (¥4.571)
25./00. [PSV] Plastic Memories # <ADV> (5pb.) {2016.10.13} (¥6.800)
26./06. [PS3] BlazBlue: Central Fiction # <FTG> (Arc System Works) {2016.10.06} (¥6.800)
27./27. [3DS] Sumikko Gurashi: Mura o Tsukurundesu <ETC> (Nippon Columbia) {2016.07.21} (¥4.800)
28./24. [PS4] The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition <The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt \ The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Hearts of Stone \ The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Blood and Wine> <RPG> (Spike Chunsoft) {2016.09.01} (¥6.480)
29./00. [PSV] LEGO Star Wars: The Force Awakens <ADV> (Warner Entertainment Japan) {2016.10.13} (¥4.700)
30./00. [WIU] LEGO Star Wars: The Force Awakens <ADV> (Warner Entertainment Japan) {2016.10.13} (¥5.700)
31./18. [PSV] Norn + Nonette: Act Tune # <ADV> (Idea Factory) {2016.10.06} (¥6.300)
32./23. [PS3] Winning Eleven 2017 <SPT> (Konami) {2016.09.15} (¥6.600)
33./22. [PSV] Utawarerumono: Futari no Hakuoro # <SLG> (Aqua Plus) {2016.09.21} (¥6.800)
34./17. [PSV] Demon Gaze 2 <RPG> (Kadokawa Games) {2016.09.29} (¥6.300)
35./16. [PS3] FIFA 17 # <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2016.09.29} (¥7.800)
36./30. [3DS] Mario Kart 7 <RCE> (Nintendo) {2011.12.01} (¥4.571)
37./28. [3DS] Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games <SPT> (Nintendo) {2016.02.18} (¥4.700)
38./26. [3DS] One Piece: Daikaizoku Coliseum <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2016.09.21} (¥5.700)
39./33. [3DS] Tomodachi Life [Nintendo Selects] <ETC> (Nintendo) {2016.03.17} (¥2.700)
40./31. [WIU] Mario Kart 8 # <RCE> (Nintendo) {2014.05.29} (¥5.700)
41./25. [PS4] Utawarerumono: Futari no Hakuoro # <SLG> (Aqua Plus) {2016.09.21} (¥6.800)
42./47. [3DS] Story of Seasons: Trio of Towns <SLG> (Marvelous) {2016.06.23} (¥4.980)
43./39. [3DS] 12-Sai. Koisuru Diary <ADV> (Happinet) {2016.08.04} (¥5.815)
44./34. [PS4] Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Siege <ACT> (Ubisoft) {2015.12.10} (¥8.400)
45./35. [WIU] Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games <SPT> (Nintendo) {2016.06.23} (¥5.700)
46./36. [PS4] Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2015.12.03} (¥2.400)
47./37. [WIU] Super Smash Bros. for Wii U # <FTG> (Nintendo) {2014.12.06} (¥7.200)
48./29. [PS4] Dead Island: Definitive Collection <Dead Island: Definitive Edition <Dead Island \ Dead Island: Bloodbath Arena \ Dead Island: Ryder White> \ Dead Island: Riptide - Definitive Edition \ Dead Island: Retro Revenge> <ADV> (Spike Chunsoft) {2016.09.29} (¥5.000)
49./41. [3DS] Taiko no Tatsujin: Don Don! Mystery Adventure <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2016.06.16} (¥4.800)
50./32. [3DS] Monster Hunter Generations # <ACT> (Capcom) {2015.11.28} (¥5.800)

Top 50

3DS - 18
PS4 - 14
PSV - 7
WIU - 7
PS3 - 4

SOFTWARE

+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+
|System |  This Week |  Last Week |  Last Year |     YTD    |  Last YTD  |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+
|  ALL  |    355.000 |    407.000 |    420.000 | 20.640.000 | 26.074.000 |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+

 

[L~A]

It's not MH5 and apparently it's not only on Switch with this forecast.

Agreed, it most definitely isn't.

Only way 2m on NS-only would be possible would be if:

- NS was proper handheld, priced accordingly
- the game had a simultaneous release worldwide
- the NS sold 700 000 units in each region in March
- everybody bought the game at launch (either insane attach rate, or bundled)

So yeah, definitely not an NS exclusive.

In a week they have 2nd Quarter Financial Results and they'll likely reveal the platforms for Monster Hunter. Now that Switch is revealed there is no reason anymore to keep the systems for it a secret.

I was going to say "but they say no more official announcements until next year", but not sure that applies to third-party. And it's not like Capcom couldn't announce the games on 3DS/NS but only show the 3DS version until they're "allowed" to show the NS version.


MH3G was announced in mid-September, then released in mid-december. So a similar timeframe would be possible for that new MH game if it's MHXG (not if it's a new entry proper).